Breeders' Cup - All Dirt Pick 4
by Frank R. Scatoni
Frank Scatoni is back for more today.
He’s got horse-by-horse comments and the full Pick 4 Matrix(TM) below for one of the unique wagers today. A reminder that this will show as a separate event within your ADW interface.
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Saturday Picks Grid - PTF, JK, Nick Tammaro, Drew Coatney, Mike Pribozie, Eric DeCoster, Eric Solomon
Horse-By-Horse Analysis
Podcasts
Vertical Wagering Thoughts - Mike Pribozie & Don Tiger
All Dirt Pick 4 Strategy - Mike Pribozie & Marshall Gramm
Breeders’ Cup Pick 5 Strategy - Mike Pribozie & Clay Sanders
Written Pieces
Japanese Horses Speed Figure and Form Analysis - By Alex Henry
International Speed Figure and Form Analysis (Friday) - By Rob Dove
International Speed Figure and Form Analysis (Saturday) - By Rob Dove
A Bettor Way of… Playing the BCBC - By 2021 BCBC Champ, Matt Miller
2024 Trend Report - By Tyler Whisman
Trip Notes
By Justin Christein, with contributions from Will Humphrey & Mike Pribozie
MYWAYP
ITM Breeders’ Cup Saturday, 11/2/24
ALL-DIRT LATE PICK 4 (R6/R8/R10/R12)
By Frank R. Scatoni
Race 6: $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) for Fillies & Mares going 9F on the main track
This race is all about Thorpedo Anna. Are you with her or against her? I’d like to be against her, but with whom? Maybe Raging Torrent could be a threat, but the sneaky horse might be Awesome Result from Japan.
#1 CANDIED (15/1) adds blinkers after several dull efforts against some good ladies. Pletcher is solid with that move, but why now? GRADE: X.
#2 THORPEDO ANNA (4/5) is an amazing 3-year-old who has run some monster races. She’s tactical, and she’s done nothing wrong in her career. She’s the one to beat, of course, but she offers no value. It’s a shame Idiomatic isn’t in the race, and do you think it’s possible that this gal might be just a bit over the top? GRADE: A.
#3 BATUCADA (20/1) ran a good second last time, but she lost to Raging Sea. She looks to need a step forward. GRADE: X.
#4 ALICE VERITE (JPN) (30/1) is a pretty good turf horse, so this seems like an odd spot for this Japanese invader. GRADE: X.
#5 SUGAR FISH (20/1) ran a good one last time in the local prep for this. It was a nice effort, but her best work has come at Santa Anita. This 3-year-old needs to show more oomph. GRADE: X.
#6 RAGING SEA (7/2) is a pretty honest lady, so I see no reason why she won’t fire a good one here. She should trip out as well. GRADE: A.
#7 HONOR D LADY (30/1) has run some good races, but two of these gals have gotten the measure of her. GRADE: X.
#8 MISS NEW YORK (20/1) seems a cut below the rest. She also seems a bit on the slow side. GRADE: X.
#9 AWESOME RESULT (4/1) looks like a beast if you consider her Japanese form to be legit. She’s 7-for-7 and close to a millionaire. I have to think she’ll be ready to fire a big one in here. GRADE: A.
#10 CHE EVASORA (ARG) (30/1) has solid Argentinian form, but her first U.S. start was an adventure. It’s incredible that D’Amato runs her in this spot, but at the same time, you have to consider the vote of confidence. He also legs up the best long-shot jock on the West Coast. Still, this seems a bit pie in the sky. GRADE: X.
Race 8: $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) contested at 10-furlongs on the main track
It’s the big one…and it’s in the middle of the card. Oh, well. Still…it’s a really competitive race, and I had a hard time separating a lot of these. The only thing I know is this: you have to beat City of Troy and Fierceness to make any money—and that doesn’t seem too hard to do.
#1 FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (6/1) is a head away from being undefeated, but all of his races have been against 3-year-olds. This Japanese import will have to face elders for the first time, but it seems like the connections have been pointing to this race, and the rail draw means he can save all the ground before uncorking his run. GRADE: A.
#2 HIGHLAND FALLS (20/1) has run a few monster races, but do note that Prat sides with another off this guy’s 10-furlong win. Still, a repeat of that race puts him in the frame, and I like that he’s capable of adapting to any pace. GRADE: B.
#3 CITY OF TROY (5/2) is either the product of a snake-oil salesman or he’s the greatest thing on dirt since sliced bread. I’m perfectly fine clapping my hands if he wins, but how can you take a short price on a horse who has never raced on dirt before (which means that he’s never experienced kickback). I could be on the wrong side of history, but I’m not part of the O’Brien cult machine. GRADE: X.
#4 MIXTO (30/1) likes Del Mar, and he did win a Grade 1 here over the summer (in what I will politely call a sub-par renewal of the Grade One Pacific Classic). I like that he’ll be prominent early, but I’m not feeling him here. GRADE: X.
#5 SENOR BUSCADOR (30/1) has been prepping for this, so don’t worry about his last two races, which were clearly tune-ups. I’m expecting a big effort, but keep in mind that it’s so hard to win a dirt race in SoCal as a deep closer. He’s bucked the trend, but his success has been few and far between. GRADE: X.
#6 DERMA SOTOGAKE (JPN) (20/1) will add blinkers to try and move forward in the second start of his form cycle. For a horse who hasn’t regained his 2023 form, that move seems like a desperation try. I don’t like that. He does have some good races to run back to, but this is a tough spot. GRADE: X.
#7 USHBA TESORO (JPN) (12/1) is very consistent, and you don’t earn $16 million unless you have some ability. I know he’s 7-years-old, but he’s competed with the best in the world. Toss his last try in this race last year, as he was too far back to have any real impact. GRADE: B.
#8 PYRENEES (30/1) is a lightly raced 4-year-old who could be sitting on a big race after a decent second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) when he finished second behind Highland Falls. That foe had a better trip, but I think this runner can be more prominent today, and I have to respect the fact that DeVaux is running this one here off that September race. GRADE: B.
#9 FIERCENESS (3/1) has run some big races and earned some big speed figures, but all of his best work has come with perfect trips. He was all out to beat a girl last time, so even though he showed a new dimension and a modicum of professionalism, he…still…just…beat…a…girl. He could win and prove himself as the best of his generation, but you can have this horse at 3/1 all day long. GRADE: C.
#10 TAPIT TRICE (30/1) is a bit of a grinder who should be running on through the lane, but he’ll need some help, since he looks a bit unexciting on paper. I like that he runs all the way through the wire, but that means he’s more suitable for underneath. GRADE: X.
#11 SIERRA LEONE (12/1) has yet to put it all together, but he always seems to be running on through the lane. He’s been a beaten favorite three times in a row, but he’ll be the forgotten horse now, and I like that Prat hasn’t given up. Nor have I. GRADE: A.
#12 ARTHUR’S RIDE (15/1) ran two monster races at Saratoga over the summer, but he made easy leads and never looked back. He can make the lead again today, but he’ll have to use some energy to angle over—and I think that compromises his chances late. I can see him maybe hanging on for a small slice, but he’ll really have to earn it. GRADE: C.
#13 NEWGATE (20/1) came off a March layoff to run a corker last time in the California Crown (G1) at 7/1. That race screamed “prep.” I’m not crazy about Baffert re-adding blinkers, but that’s always a good move for him, and there isn’t much speed signed on here, so perhaps he wants this guy to be a bit closer—and I know he’ll finish. GRADE: A.
#14 NEXT (8/1) is such a cool horse, but he’s been beating up on much weaker competition while going much longer distances. His speed figs are impressive, but who knows how reliable they are at those marathon distances. The thing I don’t like the most is that this race was never really a legit target. He can beat me. GRADE: X.
#15 RATTLE N ROLL (30/1) (AE) is a grinder who will have to angle over and hope for the best. Maybe for the super. GRADE: X.
Race 10: $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) contested at 6-furlongs on the main track
This race is for the best sprinters in the world, and it’s always an exciting one. I’m expecting a lot of speed here.
#1 RAGING TORRENT (10/1) is fast, but his speed has shone brightly at 7-furlongs. He’ll now have to break from the rail while going shorter. I am not feeling that. GRADE: X.
#2 GUN PILOT (20/1) is a bit of a grinder who hasn’t shown enough in his last two races. He’s been freshened for this, but he’ll need a career best. GRADE: X.
#3 FEDERAL JUDGE (3/1) has been sharp in all of his races this year, including a dominant win in the Phoenix (G2) when beating one of today’s foes. A step forward would make him very scary, but it’s possible he could regress off that peak effort. Prat ends up elsewhere. GRADE: B.
#4 NAKATOMI (6/1) will come running late, so he’ll need some pace to run into, which he should get today. That said, you can’t be too far back over this track, so an aggressive ride is important. Let’s see if he can mow them down. GRADE: A.
#5 DON FRANKIE (JPN) (15/1) has done fine work overseas, but he brings more speed to the proceedings, and that will likely make things difficult for him on the win end. I can see him attending the pace and weakening late, but perhaps he can hang around for a slice. GRADE: X.
#6 BENTORNATO (30/1) was all out to win at Parx last time as the even-money favorite. The waters get deeper today. GRADE: X.
#7 META MAX (20/1) regained his form last time when winning a listed stakes in Japan, but I’m not sure how good that race was. He comes back a fresh horse off that August win, but this is the toughest race of his life. GRADE: X.
#8 STRAIGHT NO CHASER (5/1) is one fast S.O.B., and he ran them all off their heels last time when dominating in the local prep for this race at Santa Anita. As sharp as that race was, however, it was a very weak Grade 2. Of course there will be other speed horses in here, so we’ll see if this guy can win the battle and the war. GRADE: B.
#9 REMAKE (JPN) (8/1) has traded decisions with a few others in here who seem logical, so that makes this one a contender too. That said, his best work has come in Grade 3 races, so he’ll need to show a bit more oomph late today, but that’s not out of the question. GRADE: B.
#10 MULLIKIN (7/2) retains Prat’s loyalty, so that counts for something. This horse is a perfect 4-for-4 this year, and I like that he seems capable of stalking, though he does like to be prominent. His fastest races have come going 7-panels, but he can win at 6-furlongs as well, so if this 4-year-old comes back off an August layoff breathing fire, look out. GRADE: A.
#11 SKELLY (8/1) has been on the lead in so many of his races, but there are some speed horses inside of him, so something has got to give. It’s too bad he doesn’t like to rate, because this post would be perfect for that, but based on his run style, he seems up against it as he’s likely to contest a hot pace and tire late. Still, he has run some big races, so I’m not ready to throw him out either! GRADE: B.
Race 12: $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) contested at 8-furlongs on the main track
Things change, and that’s why the last race of the Breeders’ Cup is the Dirt Mile (G1) and not the Classic (G1), but that’s okay—this race drew a full field of evenly matched runners.
#1 SAUDI CROWN (5/1) has speed and the rail, so you can guess what his plans are. He’s run some big races, but can he win the battle and the war today? GRADE: B.
#2 T O SAINT DENIS (JPN) (30/1) wired horses in the slop at Churchill in the Alysheba (G2) in his May trip to the U.S. It was sharp, but it came at 8.5-furlongs, so he’ll need to be even sharper today—and he’s coming off a poor August race. GRADE: X.
#3 FULL SERRANO (ARG) (15/1) ran too good to lose in the Pacific Classic (G1) going 10-furlongs last time. The cutback should help, since he ran a corker in his U.S. debut going a mile over this track. That said, he’s another one who likes to be in the mix from the jump. GRADE: X.
#4 KATONAH (30/1) cuts back after several longer races, so he should be fit. He seems a bit on the slow side, but he does know how to stalk and pass horses, and that’s a good run style for this race. GRADE: X.
#5 THREE TECHNIQUE (30/1) has lost to a few of these already, so he needs to turn the tables on those foes. I’m not really seeing it. GRADE: X.
#6 SEIZE THE GREY (10/1) is a 3-year-old who has won some big races, but he likes to be in the vanguard early, and I’m expecting a fast early pace. At least he’ll be fit on the cutback. That said, part of me thinks that if he was the ish, he’d be running for $7 million instead of here. GRADE: X.
#7 TUMBARUMBA (30/1) has lost to a few of these, so he’ll need to do better today. That said, he hasn’t been too far off those rivals, and he should move forward second off the bench. He should also get a good stalking trip. GRADE: B.
#8 POST TIME (12/1) is a bit of a grinder who should be running on through the lane. Is he fast enough to win on fast dirt? His two best races have come on off tracks, which won’t be the case today. GRADE: X.
#9 DOMESTIC PRODUCT (7/2) is a 3-year-old who has been freshened for this. His fastest races have come around one turn, but he can win around two turns, so I’m not too fussed about that. I expect a big effort today. He seems like a very likely winner, thus diluting the value of this race and perhaps creating an anticlimactic end to what has been a great Breeders’ Cup. GRADE: A.
#10 MUTH (9/2) looked like he was ready for primetime last time, but he ran an improbably bad race in his first try against older horses. Before that against sophomores, he was fine, but how can you back a runner off such a bad last race? GRADE: X.
#11 CAGLIOSTRO (30/1) always seems to fire, but he looks a tad on the slow side, and he’ll have to work out a trip from a tough outside post. GRADE: X.
#12 MUFASA (CHI) (12/1) has good one-turn form here in the States, but he showed he could route in his native Chile. He has enough tactical speed to be prominent early, so I can see him angling over and then showing his best. GRADE: B.
#13 PIPELINE (30/1) looks like a need-the-lead type, and that’s going to be an issue against these from this post. GRADE: X.
#14 SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING (4/1) has enough speed to angle over, but then what? There are plenty of other fast horses inside of him, so he’s looking at a wide journey. He’s run some races that would make him tough in here, but I can’t support him at 4/1. If he wins, I lose! GRADE: X.
MATRIX
The topline is very cheap to play, so you could hammer down. You should also play the “A” and “B” lines heading into the single “A” in the last. Other than that, I’ll leave it up to your own devices!
