Breeders' Cup - Rob Dove Final Answers and Drew Coatney Live Longshots
Rob Dove is back with more! Below, you’ll find his selections for several key races.
ICYMI - The links below will direct you to his work on Figure and Form analysis for the International Runners.
International Horses - Speed Figure and Form Analysis from Rob Dove - Friday
International Horses - Speed Figure and Form Analysis from Rob Dove - Saturday
***After that, Drew Coatney (2022 BCBC Champion) shares his always popular segment of Vulnerable Favorites and Live Longshots. Great stuff, as always.
Juvenile Turf Sprint
My preference is Aesterius in an obviously open race that will come down to trips. It looks like Japanese runner Ecoro Sieg (Although I’m a bit worried he might miss the break) & Governor Sam are the fastest early, and hopefully, Aesterius can sit off them & run them down, I fear the O’brien pair will have too much to do from wide draws with less tactical pace & will need a meltdown. Big Mojo should have a similar trip to Aesterius & shouldn’t be far away either
Juvenile Filly turf
Lake Victoria should win, but there are a few concerns, she is a bit of a keen goer and is going up in trip & she’s a 2-year-old filly at the end of the season, also a bad break could be a problem from stall 1 & at under 2/1 she doesn’t make much appeal. I don’t like any of the other Euros & the one that might benefit if Lake Victoria underperforms is Thought Process, which looks nice to my eye but this is not a race I’m planning to bet much on.
Juvenile Turf
I’m going to take on the runners from the Summer Stakes. I’m not sure the race was that strong that they took a big step forward & the stable jockey has overlooked Al Qudra. The horse I think maybe overlooked by the market is Henri Matisse especially with the wide draw, he does have the best form in the race & the wide draw maybe an advantage for him to get a clear run held up off a strong pace. The other one I’m interested in is Satono Carnaval, who was quite impressive on figures, winning over 6 furlongs & could improve for the extra distance.
Turf Sprint
Cogburn is clearly the most likely winner here, but with Ag Bullet on his inside & Big Evs on his outside, I’m hoping for a bit of a meltdown. The one I like to run him down is the improving 3-year-old filly Star of Mystery; she was already doing some pretty nice figures in Meydan & has continued in the US running a nice figure at Saratoga. I also think Believing is a very strong finisher & she was on the wrong side of the track in the Nunthorpe. She could be a bit better than the ratings suggest. Also, I can’t resist Starlust. He was going to go close in the Abbaye before being stopped & was only a length behind Bradsell the run before & there will probably be a huge price here. It's probably not a bad play to have those three behind Cogburn in exacta/forecasts.
Turf
Rebel’s Romance is the most consistent and best performer in this race. The wide draw is a slight worry, but hopefully, it helps us get a little bigger price. It feels like another race that could go badly wrong for Emily Upjohn, and I’m not sure Jayrebe has the class. Wingspan might get overlooked and be overpriced. She has a nice upward profile, and I will keep her on my side.
Classic
I’ve laid City of Troy at 2/1, I’m not sure I understand how he’s that short & the inside draw looks tricky, he’s going to have to go through kickback & show his mettle. Not saying he can’t win but at those prices have to take him on.
Filly & Mare Turf
I’m not really keen on any of the Euros in this race. I’m concerned with Cinderellla’s Dream's step-up in trip, but she has been impressive off slow paces. War Like Goddess looks the value to me. With her very solid figures and consistency, I see her as the most likely winner (and currently not favourite).
Mile
I think the Euros all look too short in the betting for this race. I like Ramatuelle best of them, but at the prices, the US runners look far more interesting. Carl Spackler has drawn a wide post, and that clearly hurts his chances, but it’s going to be reflected in his odds, and I think he might be the most talented horse in the field. More Than Looks also looks worth a play at big odds on the same form lines and may get a better trip.
Vulnerable Favorites and Live Longshots from Drew Coatney
Before we dive in, we should acknowledge that “vulnerable favorite” can mean many things to many people. For our purposes, these are horses with odds that are disproportionate to their actual odds of winning. Most of the horses below have a great chance of winning, just not a 70% chance of winning. With that out of the way, let’s find some value by identifying where favorites can be faded.
Friday, Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar
Race 7: Juvie Filly 8.5f
Make of it what you will, but the final time Beyer for Scottish Lassie is 90 vs. the TFUS figure of 107. #3 Immersive is 80 and TFUS 107. I like the Immersive figure better: more adversity faced, repeated similar on 8/31.
Live Longshot: 5 Quickick (10-1) Presser/closer who has the better draw. Continues to get better and should be overlooked in the market. The pace should be hot, and Dylan Davis will be able to take advantage of the pace setup. Horse needs to run 5-10 Beyer points higher today, which isn’t impossible for a day like today. Workouts look strong.
Vulnerable Favorite: #10 Scottish Lassie (5/2) Debut ran into pace pressure and wilted. Last out got a perfect setup and ran on well. Today is going to see so much pace, I have minimal confidence in that 90 figure will hold up with the pace in this race. I also hate trusting a last out top Beyer in a maiden win when things went the horse’s way.
Race 9: BC Juvies 8.5f
It's a tough rendition of this race where there’s upside volatility everywhere.
Vulnerable Favorite: #1 East Avenue (5/2) Hasn’t had any pace pressure to really deal with, and today will get plenty of that. Don’t love the chances at a short price that the rail horse will break, not get too much pressure, and be able to run on with it down the lane.
Most Logical: #10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1) Stop me if you’ve heard this story: Chad Brown with a closer in a dirt race (Sierra Leon). I like the chances of this horse in this spot. Has yet to go a full two turns and gets a ton of pace in this race. East Avenue must be sent from the rail, #2 Getaway Car has to be sent, and then the rest of the pack looks to have speed. I would expect Chancer to trail along the backstretch by 6+ lengths as the pace heats up. Moreover, this horse has shown can overcome adversity two back in the hopeful: smashed out gate, lost iron, dropped back, and ran them down against the pace flow in a sprint distance. Mind blowing.
Race 10: Juvies Turf 8f (T)
Like the Exacta in her 5 w 11,4 and then reverse it.
Live Longshot: #5 Zulu Kingdom (8-1) Awesome to get almost double digits on Brown. This horse has tactical speed and should be sitting a perfect pocket trip. I really like the last two winning races. Two back had a sneaky hard trip waiting for a seam at the top of the stretch, then got brave and hit the rail hole. Last out, it was a yielding surface on the rail, shifted out late, and closed well against the pace big time. The figure is iffy, but I will give that a pass due to the nasty weather.
Saturday, Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar
Race 6: BC Distaff 9f
Live Longshot: #5 Sugar Fish (20-1) Bear with me. You must squint to see this winner. Last out set a big number with slow early pace. Two back bad trip and stagger fest after Adare Manner pushed those horses into the ground. Three back ran another huge number after overcoming adversity. Four back where I have a big note, “big run from this one, proved it this time, bit of traffic to navigate FT, cleared against the flow to just get up in time.” There’s still upside left and this horse could blow up tickets at massive prices.
Vulnerable Favorite: #2 Thorpedo Anna (4/5) Way too short of a price here, this has been a massive campaign and I’m worried that will wear on her. Her figures are in the ballpark of the rest of this bunch, except for the Travers (but that number is hard to write due to the 10f nature).
Race 8: BC Classic 9f
Great edition of The Classic!
Live Longshot: #14 Next (8-1) In a sporting turn of events, this marathon monster fits in here perfectly to run on with it. 8-1 is a gift if this horse can press. Next has all the time in the world along the stretch the first time around to work out a trip. I think we’ll get closer to 12-1 on the day due to the money the top of the market will take.
Race 11: BC Mile 8f (T)
Live Longshot: #8 More than Looks (20-1) Was only 80% cranked in the four-year-old debut at the Four Star Dave and caught a slow pace that day. Last out caught another very slow pace. Still running huge numbers. I love this one in the mix. This is a four year old with only three starts this year. Watch out!