Breeders' Cup - International Speed Figure and Form Analysis (FRIDAY)
from Rob Dove
No phrase may have been uttered on the ITM airwaves more than “Rob Dove, one of the top 10 Pro Punters in the UK” (“Bill Mott with a target” is certainly in the frame). This is the time of year when we all benefit from his analysis. And a big thanks to Rob for what you’ll see in this write-up. This is truly exclusive stuff.
We plan to send a similar rundown for Saturday’s race sometime tomorrow and we’ll also be back with Rob’s selections later this week.
Below are equivalency figures for the International contingent (Alex Henry will have something similar for the Japanese Runners). The idea is that they’re on a scale equivalent to Beyers.
To orient you to what you’re seeing below. It’s the following pattern as displayed.
Last Race Form Figure (Last Race Speed Figure) - Race Prior Form Figure (Race Prior Speed Figure) - Etc.
Because of the nature of turf racing (where the best running happens late), raw time figures don’t fully capture ability as they do on dirt. Therefore, in the USA, Turf figures often involve a lot more “projection,” ie, educated guesses that raise or lower the speed figures on turf. For our Euro equivalents, we are presenting the projected figure, aka the Form Figure, and then also showing the raw time figure (spd figure) for those races. Which is better? Generally, I’d expect the form figure to be more accurate but the speed figure is an important reference point on how much you might want to trust the form number.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Big Mojo
88(77)-84(85)-85(84)
Won the Molecomb beating Aesterius, the stable was on fire that week. His two runs since have been similar, but Aesterius reversed the form with him last time despite leading into a slight headwind while Big Mojo tracked. His best speed figure was when he ran 4th in the Gimcrack, running an 85 beyer. His best form rating was his last run at Doncaster (run in a slow time but into a headwind), where he got an 89 beyer. He travels well in his races and has plenty of speed, but they prefer to track with him.
Aesterius
89(78)-86(82)-83(83)-85(87)
He has been a very solid & consistent performer, steadily improving his numbers through the year; reversed form with Big Mojo last time despite running into a headwind. His best speed figure was at Sandown, an 87 Beyer, but on form, his last run was 89. He’s a strong traveler who races typically on or near the pace & has drawn well to get a forward position
Ides of March
88(84)-81(76)-76(72)
An improving son of Wootton Bassett, he was long odds on last time, but thought he was pretty impressive, got a soft lead, but it was into a headwind. Quickened up nicely 2-1f out in 10.98 & running a nice time figure of 84 with a form rating of 88. This is going to be an entirely different test though, down from 6f to 5f, I’m unsure how he will handle a much faster early pace & it will be very tricky from his wide stall.
Whistlejacket
85(77)-90(87)-89(89)
Has two very solid runs in Group 1s in August, running to an 89 beyer on both form and time. Those were over 6 furlongs, though & the last time he tried 5f at Royal Ascot, he was a bit outpaced mid-race & like his brother Little Big Bear seemed to improve for the extra distance. He was also a little below par in the Middle Park last time out & comes here with a few question marks.
Magnum Force
85(75)-84(85)-75(66)
He was unlucky not to win at York 2 starts ago behind Tropical Storm & he duly reversed form with that horse at Doncaster, but he still finished behind Big Mojo & Aesterius despite having a nice trip with cover from the wind. I’ve got him with an 85-speed & form Beyer, so he needs a bit more. His best chance will probably be to hold up and hope for a meltdown.
Shareholder
64(61)-85(79)-73(68)
Beat many of these at Royal Ascot, running an 85 form & 79 Beyer speed figure, but that was a long time ago & flopped in the Morny. Getting him back on song for this will take a good training performance.
Arizona Blaze
85(84)-81(79)-85(86)
An admirable, consistent type who has been running fairly solid numbers all year over both 5 & 6 furlongs, mainly around the 85-Beyer mark on both time & form.
John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Lake Victoria
95(89)-88(85)-84(76)
Unbeaten filly who is one of the best 2-year-olds in Europe. I thought she might have been a little flattered winning the Moyglare stakes when she just sat off a war in front & picked them off late, but she improved again in the Cheveley Park, making all and pulling clear. The speed figure 89 wasn’t as fast as the form figure 95 if you want a small chink & that was on softish ground over 6f, so she does have a few things to prove. Stall 1 should be okay as long as she breaks, which she has done so far. She’s not likely to be of much value & O’Briens had a few with similar profiles beat in this race before, but she’s an obvious stand-out.
Heaven's Gate
83(72)-81(78)-82(78)
Has a lot to find with her stablemate. Her best form figure is 83 with a speed figure of 78. She’s made the running in the past but was held up last time when there was a strong headwind at the Curragh & held off Fiery Lucy, who had a better hold-up ride, so she should confirm placings with that one.
Fiery Lucy
82(72)-80(80)-79(76)
She seemingly ran a career-best last time out & some thought she was unlucky, but there was a strong headwind that day & she was held up last challenging late but failing to get by Heaven’s Gate. She got an 82 Beyer there, but I think that flatters her & I can’t have her here.
Anshoda
73(70)-81(81)-78(78)
Her best form and figure came two back, winning the Group 3 Prestige in an 81 form/time that was over soft ground & she has since run below that form trying to make all in the May Hill, weakening a bit tamely despite even fractions, clearly a bit more to find here & she may prefer soft going.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Henri Matisse
86(84)-90(72)-89(81)
Looked like a nice 2-year-old when winning the Group 2 Futurity stakes at the Curragh on 3rd start, beating Hotazhell (who won a Group 1 last week) & Scorthy Champ (who won the National Stakes) in a decent time off a slow pace with really fast closing sectionals (10.69 11.37 last 2 furlongs) on sectional upgrades ran to about a 91 beyer. The problem is he turned into Van Gogh on his next outing, looking an absolute certainty to win when scything through the field before hanging badly and refusing to go by. He’s since run moderately in France in blinkers & on the softish ground. Can this be his redemption? He’s got the ability if they can get him going back the right way.
New Century
(93)-84(67)-84(82)
Had been steadily improving over here but had him running to about 84 before his Woodbine win. Beyer has given him 93 there & on that would be very hard to beat. Still, I have noticed Woodbine's figure from this meeting being a bit high in the past so expect he may have run a little lower & he did get a great outside trip run there off a strong pace. They will be hoping for a similar trip here from his outside post position.
Al Qudra
(91)-88(85)-80(78)
Had beaten New Century over here & I had him running to about 88 beyer at Ascot. He had a rough trip in the straight at Woodbine. I think it would have been close between him & New Century otherwise & if that's the key form line shouldn’t be much between them again.
Aomori City
85(67)-86(84)-81(79)
Charlie Appleby says there is not much between him & Al Qudra at home but his run in the National Stakes gives him a bit to find with some of these. He looked to lack a change of gear there and ran to an 86 beyer on form. His best speed figure was when winning the Vintage stakes in 84. He has a little bit to find but perhaps wasn’t at his best in the National stakes and will step forward again.
Seagull’s Eleven
84(79)-89(71)-89(81)
Split Henri Matisse & Aomori City in the Nationals stakes, and that’s his best form rating 89 Beyer. He’s yet to run a fast time, though and did run below form in the Dewhurst, possibly down to the soft ground. He’s got plenty of tactical pace that could be an asset around here.
The Waco Kid
88(82)-82(83)-81(81)
He's probably at an advantage when making all on heavy ground at Newmarket last time for a form rating of 88. Still, the speed figure of 83 probably represents him a bit more realistically, a likable, steadily improving horse with tactical speed, though that looks like a real trier.