Breeders' Cup - International Speed Figure and Form Analysis (Saturday)
From Rob Dove
Below are equivalency figures for the International contingent (Alex Henry will have something similar for the Japanese Runners). The idea is that they’re on a scale equivalent to Beyers.
ICYMI - Here’s a link to Friday’s
To orient you to what you’re seeing below. It’s the following pattern as displayed.
Last Race Form Figure (Last Race Speed Figure) - Race Prior Form Figure (Race Prior Speed Figure) - Etc.
Because of the nature of turf racing (where the best running happens late), raw time figures don’t fully capture ability as they do on dirt. Therefore, in the USA, Turf figures often involve a lot more “projection,” ie, educated guesses that raise or lower the speed figures on turf. For our Euro equivalents, we are presenting the projected figure, aka the Form Figure, and then also showing the raw time figure (spd figure) for those races. Which is better? Generally, I’d expect the form figure to be more accurate but the speed figure is an important reference point on how much you might want to trust the form number.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Bradsell
104(101)-108(107)-107(101)
Has had a very solid year, winning the Nunthorpe and Flying Five Group 1s. He came up a little short in the Abbaye last time with the possible excuse of soft ground(he also ran below form the last time he ran on soft). I estimate a Beyer of 107/8 on his best form. He has plenty of early pace but doesn’t lead, and with the wide draw, he is going to need a lot of luck early to get a position.
Big Evs
93(89)-106(103)-104(101)
A horse with a lot of early pace, it seemed like Ascot was too stiff for him when he was run down at Royal Ascot. He then went to Goodwood on very fast ground and was backed heavily to reverse form with Asfoora & he did just, and there was a small headwind that day that couldn’t have helped him. He then flopped for the 2nd year running in the Nunthorpe. The beyer he ran to at Goodwood was 103 on speed figures 106 on form, hes going to need more here but the track should suit and he’s got some upside, the wide draw means he’ll be ridden aggressively but he probably was anyway.
Believing
101(98)-103(103)-104(99)
A closer who has quite a strong finish but has been behind Bradsell three times in a row and behind Big Evs the run before, she will need a pace meltdown here to get past those. She went to Hong Kong in April and was well beat, but she had a bad trip. She typically runs to about a 103 beyer. She’s got Ryan Moore and stall 1. She’s going to need a lot of luck in running from there, but she’s got the right man on board to find a path through.
Starlust
94(90)-105(100)-97(95)
He ran well in the Nunthorpe, just beaten a length by Believing, and then was running well in the Abbaye but badly hampered when it looked like he would have been involved. He races mid-pack. His best speed figure is 100, and his form figure is 105.
Breeders’ Cup Turf
Rebel’s Romance
104-104(101)-107
You could say he was a little disappointing in Germany last time to only win a neck, but the race was very slowly run & he pulled clear with Straight, who has since followed up impressively. In the King George, he sat close to the hot pace and still ran well. The two that beat him were ridden with more patience & it looks like strong form; he’s been very consistent and versatile, and I expect he can run another high 100 beyer here as he did when winning & that may well be enough.
Jayarebe
104(85)-104(92)-104(93)
Nice improving 3 year old, last time he set a slow pace and just held off Almaqam who he had beaten much easier the run before, Anmaat was well beat and has since won the Champion Stakes but can’t have run his race here. At Deauville 2 runs back he was two lengths behind a rampant Economics who went on to win the Irish Champion Stakes (with Almaqam 6 lengths back in 3rd). His one bad run this year was at Chester, which you could take as a negative for him handling Del Mar, but he is a small athletic type & I don’t see it as an issue. The other question is, will he enjoy the extra distance? He’s got a small stride but not a high cadence (24 feet 2.3 cadence); his sire was a miler but has plenty of stamina on the dam side; he races on the pace or just tracking. I think it’s likely he’s ok at a distance; I estimate he can run to a 105 beyer.
Luxembourg
105(104)-95(93)-107(96)
Has become a bit inconsistent this year, beaten at odds on in Saudi before before a poor run in Dubai, he bounced back to form at Epsom but the time wasn’t fast, he then flopped in the King George, well behind Rebels Romance but it was a fast pace he was up with. On his last start in the Irish Champion, he was tried in cheek pieces, a sign they were questioning his temperament & he set a fairly strong tempo, weakening out of it late but still running a fair figure (105 Beyer). He shouldn't be too far away if he’s on a good day.
Emily Upjohn
105(101)-101(93)-94(84)
Hasn’t won a race this year, and she’s thrown in a couple of clunkers when favourite. Still, she comes here with the good form & figures, 105 form 102 time & her last run has worked out very well with Bluestocking & Aventure running 1-2 in the Arc plus Survie beaten nine lengths here beaten 8 in the Arc & Sparkling Plenty running well in the Opera. She can be keen in her races, which probably accounts for some of the clunkers. If they can get her there in the same mindset as Paris she will be right in the mix, she’s not the most reliable but maybe the return of Frankie can get her back in the winners circle.
Wingspan
103(80)-100(86)-96(91)
A late developer who has been slowly improving, she has run a higher form rating than the last in all her six starts & if she continues that trend, she has a chance here. The main question is, was she flattered in the Champions Fillies & Mares race as she was on the pace & nothing got into it from behind? They went a fast pace early, but she slowed it down mid-race with an even finish. The final time wasn’t fast, but the form figure comes out at 103 Beyer, which may be a little high given the circumstances. I’m a little surprised they’ve gone for this more demanding race rather than the Filly & Mare turf (Aidan says the extra distance was the deciding factor). She may be ridden aggressively here, and Luxembourg will be ridden chilly.
Breeders’ Cup Classic
City Of Troy
111(105)-107(95)-108(108)
The form of his last run is working out well , Ghostwriter wasn’t beaten far in the Irish Champion & Bluestocking won the Arc since. The race was slowly run, but with sectional upgrades, he probably ran near his TF form rating of 130, which equals a 109 beyer. A couple of Aidan O’brien previous runners in the race were rated higher (Giant’s Causeway & Galileo) & the obvious key question is can he translate it to dirt. I’m not sure the gallop at Southwell told us much as the surface is Tapeta, when he sent Giant’s Causeway & Galileo the surface was fibresand (fairly similar to dirt) but the time was solid enough , it was a proper workout. Obviously his pedigree is mixed with the dam side being all turf. He has a long stride measured at 27 feet at York with a low cadence of about 2.2 & it will probably be very important for him to break well and not get stuck behind horses, but with his lack of experience and inside post, that would be a big worry for me. I’m not sure he will end Aidan’s drought in the race, but seeing him try will be fun.
Breeders’ Cup FM Turf
Content
87(66)-95(72)-103(95)
Quite a puzzling filly, her best runs came in the summer when upped to 12 furlongs in the Irish Oaks & Yorkshire Oaks. She was keen on both occasions, but that doesn’t seem to affect her. In the Irish Oaks, she was just behind You Got To Me but reversed that form at York. That may have been down to Ryan Moore finding a faster strip of ground near the rail (that did seem an advantage all meeting), so I’m unwilling to take that form rating literally. Taking her form rating from the Curragh she ran to a beyer of 100, the pace was slow & I think with sectional upgrades the speed figure was similar. She has had 2 quick races on soft ground in October that you could excuse, but it also could be she’s lost her form. A positive note is she’s a May foal, so she may still be improving & She had a good run in the Breeders Cup last year, where she finished like a train.
Soprano
(90)-100(73)-98(55)
Beat Ylang Ylang in the Matron, but she was better positioned off the slow pace and has since been kicked out the way by She Feels Pretty in a moderate Grade 1. She will need more here, and I’m not sure this extra distance is likely to suit her (she’s keen going and has a speedy pedigree). The wide post looks a bit tricky for her.
Breeders’ Cup Mile
Notable Speech
99(75)-107(104)-99(93)
When he won the 2000 Guineas, I felt he was flattered by various factors. He was held up last of a strong pace into a headwind & he had race fitness over most of his rivals; he flopped in the St James Palace after that with no excuses offered. His Sussex win is the key to whether he has a chance here & the time there was pretty solid, about 104 on the Beyer scale. Timeform gave it a higher form rating, but I don’t think it was a strong race; Maljoom’s been beaten twice since & Henry Longfellow looking regressive. He flopped again last time in the Moulin; this time, the ground was given as an excuse. He’s an athletic type with a turn of foot so the race should suit him, I’m just unsure that he’s good enough .
Porta Fortuna
103(76)-103(100)-104(93)
I wasn’t sure she’d train on as a 3-year-old, but she’s thriving and has won her races in a very likable fashion , tracking and showing a turn of foot to put her races to bed in 3 straight Group 1’s; she has an excellent profile for this race but is she good enough? In the matron, she sat just off a slow pace and quickened up best; the form is mixed; Soprano got kicked out the way by She Feels Pretty, and Fallen Angel has run ok since. The time was slow but probably just affected by the slow pace. She ran a better time figure at Newmarket beating a weak field in an evenly run contest still only a 100 beyer though, she’s going to need a bit more here but she’s a very likeable filly.
Ramatuelle
107(92)-101(89)-100(99)
Was beaten twice by Porta Fortuna in the early season but she was too close to a strong pace in the 1000 Guineas & possibly not seeing out the stiff Ascot mile in the Coronation. She came back with a bang after a break in the Foret, tracking a strong pace and bursting clear to win in a good form figure 107 beyer. Still, an overly strong pace helped the winning distance & the time doesn’t look that fast in comparison to the earlier 2yo Group 1 (0.56 seconds quicker), but it may have rained a little through the card. The sharp mile of Del Mar should be ideal as she’s small and seems to struggle with a stiff mile and from stall 1 you’d expect her to get the box seat tracking the leader.
Diego Velazquez
104(92)-106(103)-76(78)
Found his feet in his last two starts, seemingly best at a stiff mile/9f on fast going. His best figure came when smashing up the Meld Stakes by seven lengths, but he raced wide that day & it looks pretty likely that was an advantage, so the more reliable form line is to look at his last win in the Solonaway Stakes. He beat Maljoom further than Notable Speech did, but the pace was slow & Maljoom was poorly positioned. He ran to a 104 beyer on form there & I think that's what he's capable of running here, but with slight doubts that this sharp mile won’t be enough of a test for him & I’m unsure he will be quick enough into stride to get a good position from stall 4.