Breeders' Cup - Japanese Horses Speed Figure and Form Analysis
From Alex Henry
Below are equivalency figures for the Japanese Breeders’ Cup contingent, brought to you by ITM Contributor Alex Henry. The idea is that they’re on a scale equivalent to Beyers.
Here are a few “companion pieces” that should supplement that analysis below quite well.
ITM Japanese Breeders’ Cup Contenders Discussion
International Horses - Speed Figure and Form Analysis from Rob Dove - Friday
International Horses - Speed Figure and Form Analysis from Rob Dove - Saturday
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint:
8. Ecoro Seig | 2C | Twirling Candy x Lily Pod by Bernstein
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 87 – 74 – N/A
Morning Line: 7/2
USA-bred colt has two wins from two starts and a Japanese record as well. In his most recent win, the Open class Canna Stakes, he broke a 23 year old course record at Nakayama for two-year-olds and also became the fastest two year old over 1200m in Japanese history, clocking a final time of 1:07.2. This effort earned him an estimated 87 Beyer speed figure, placing him right in line with the European contingent entered in this race. One aspect of Ecoro Seig’s Canna Stakes that makes that effort even more impressive is that he completely missed the break and was last at first jump, then in a timeframe of about 15 strides he already pulled alongside Rapier, who caught a rocket start. With a clean break on Friday afternoon, I anticipate him to be dangerous.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies:
6. Otomena Shacho | 2F | Speighstown x Mylady Curlin by Curlin
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 75 – 70 – 52
Morning Line: 20/1
This USA-bred filly, whose name translates to Maiden Butterfly, looked the part for trainer and buyer Hideyuki Mori in the 2023 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Purchased for $200,000, she has yet to earn back her sales price, however, Hideyuki Mori sees enough in her to test her ability stateside. Her key win came last out on September 15th at Chukyo over their 6f dirt course in a $62,200 Maiden race against both fillies and colts. She won by five lengths in 1:10.7 in front-running fashion. Of note, only the 8th place finisher from that race has returned to break their maiden since then. In her 2nd start, she finished 2nd to American Bikini, who put on a show that day. Her best chance will be if she finds herself on the lead, setting a pedestrian pace, and that’ll only happen if American Bikini doesn’t get her way.
9. American Bikini | 2F | American Pharoah x Paris Bikini by Bernardini
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 83 – 89 – 50
Morning Line: 5/1
This is the 2-year-old, irrespective of gender, that I am most excited to watch on Friday. Bred in Japan by global powerhouse Northern Farm, this big dark bay filly is one of the largest shipping, weighing 494kg/1089lbs. She broke her maiden at 2nd asking by 7 lengths on Kokura racecourse’s clockwise track, covering 5f in 57.2 over a dirt track considered good. She looked spectacular. Jockey Masayuki Yoshimura rode confidently and never asked her beyond pre-race instructions to urge her to finish strong late; aforementioned starter Otomena Shacho finished a clear 2nd in this race. Returning two months later in the 7f Yamaboshi Sho (listed stake level), she trounced males by 2 ½ lengths over the counterclockwise dirt track. In this effort, I noticed she got a bit strong with the jockey once she crossed over from turf to dirt track, but once she was given her head, she relaxed a bit, leveling off in the stretch to win easily. This filly looks special.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile:
8. Shin Believe | 2C | Constitution x Sand Puce* Arg by Footstepsinthesand* GB
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 68 – N/A – N/A
Morning Line: 10/1
This $800,000 OBS March 2-year-old was an easy winner of a Newcomer Maiden race over 1800m/9F over Niigata’s dirt course on August 3rd by five lengths as the 4/5 favorite, and thus far, only one horse has returned to break their maiden since then. It’s extremely rare for a 2-year-old to start their career at 9f. Still, trainer Hideyuki Mori and assistant trainer Ryo Shimizu identified this colt’s affinity to middle dirt distances early, stating, “You can feel [his] power from [his] movements. Longer distances are best [and] he’s also very maneuverable.” Mori is no stranger to bold decisions, sending Full Flat to attempt this same race in 2019 (5th) and then successfully attempting the Saudi Derby in 2020 to give his charge the best (and final) win of his career. This colt is up against it, but look for him to break well and rate handily.
9. Ecoro Azel | 2C | Shancelot x Cicada’s Song by Twirling Candy
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 73 – 66 – N/A
Morning Line: 30/1
Stablemate to Shin Believe, Ecoro Azel broke his maiden over 6f on the Niigata dirt in July by 2 ½ lengths in front-running fashion. He raced in the Yamaboshi Prize (N1X), the same race filly American Bikini won easily. However, a late start hampered his challenge for the front that day. Mori’s assistant trainer, Ryo Shimizu, was quoted in September stating, “The extended distance will not be a problem, and I think he can race [well] even in the back [of the pack].” A win here would be a great surprise, but as we learned a few years ago, anything can happen.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf:
1. Satono Carnaval | 2C | Kitasan Black* JPN x Realsatrice* FR by Numerous
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 85 – 56 – N/A
Morning Line: 20/1
This Japan-bred colt is an undefeated strapping (496kg/1093lbs) bay and is the only Japanese shipper to have won a graded stakes race thus far. That win came via the G3 Hakodate Nisai stakes on July 13th over 6f on turf versus 13 other rivals. He stalked in 4th until getting shaken up by jockey Dai Sasaki in the final straight, overtaking front-runner Nishino Lavnda mid-late stretch. However, trainer Noriyuki Hori was quoted in July stating, “Genetic testing and jockey Lane's judgment indicate he is suited to short distances.” His dam Realsatrice went well up to 8f in France, and half-brother Dunedin (by Real Steel) won up to 10f on turf. He must have demonstrated some serious improvement in stamina since the summer in to be here; I believe he will attempt a mid-pack bid and will need the well-touted Euros to find trouble to get the job done on Friday.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff:
4. Alice Verite | 4f | Kizuna* JPN x Lumiere Verite by Cozzene
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 89 – 102 – 93
Morning Line: 30/1
Classic distance specialist is potentially an overlay if she remains close to her 30/1 morning line as she’s finished in the trifecta 15 out of 20 starts. Her most recent wins have come in front running fashion, I would not expect those tactics to change on Saturday. Two items of note: she’s never raced on dirt, and in the G3 Niigata Kinen, where she finished 10th, she was ridden very confidently and looked to be a winner until ~1.5f from the finish, where she quit badly and faded from 1st to 10th. Her jockey that day (Yu Shibata) felt that perhaps she was too heavy coming into the race, as she’d gained 14kg/30lbs during her 3-month layoff after winning the G3 Mermaid Stakes in June. Also, she was kept about eight paths from the inside throughout the Niigata Kinen in an effort to find the best ground. This seems to have backfired and caused a deceptively bad result. I vote to give her another look, especially if there’s limited value in wagering Awesome Result.
9. Awesome Result | 4f | Justify x Blossomed by Deputy Minister
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 99 – 99 – 99
Morning Line: 4/1
Earning a trifecta of estimated 99 Beyer speed figures is no easy feat, especially when the only other filly in the Distaff this year to break 100 on the Beyer scale is Thorpedo Anna. Awesome Result is a deserving top three wagering choice with Idiomatic out of the race. Undefeated in 7 starts on dirt of all kinds – fast to sloppy – she’s a very exciting prospect for another Japanese victory in the Distaff (recalling Marche Lorraine’s victory in 2021). This filly is extremely versatile, scoring wins as a front runner and closing from 10th of 12th runners. That adaptability will be a valuable asset on Saturday. Her runs in stakes company (G2 and G3 wins) have been against other fillies and mares to date, however her win in the Aldebaran stakes versus open company was earned against males and females. In my view, the Grizzly is extremely tough, but the forest is more dense than it appears to be.
Breeders’ Cup Turf:
1. Rousham Park | 5H | Harbinger* GB x Reinette Groove* JPN by King Kamehameha* JPN
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 92 – 97 – 100
Morning Line: 20/1
Northern Farm and Sunday Racing teamed up again to campaign this top-level horse, albeit with plenty of patience. Rousham Park found his best form in 2023, winning 4 of 6 starts, including the G3 Hakodate Kinen and G2 Sankei Sho. This year, his best finish was 2nd in the G1 Osaka Hai over 10f just missing to Bellagio Opera. His trainer and jockey in his previous 3 starts, Kei Tosaki, both agree that he tends to lose momentum late in his races. Perhaps the Del Mar turf will be to his liking to spring an upset, as his past speed figures position him worthy of a good run here.
3. Shahryar | 6H | Deep Impact* JPN x Dubai Majesty by Essence of Dubai
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 92 – *101 (from Timeform) – 106
Morning Line: 10/1
World traveler sired by my personal favorite stallion in recent memory has won over $10,000,000 in just four wins. He ran well in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf to finish a troubled 3rd after encountering traffic; however, he continues to show up on the international stage, finishing 2nd in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. He seems to pull out his best performances abroad as of late, but he’s hit the trifecta in 6 of 8 starts at 12f on turf so far in his career. His form this year puts him in contention with the US entrants, however, the European team (notably Rebel’s Romance who won the Dubai Sheema Classic) will certainly give Shahryar all he can handle.
Breeders’ Cup Classic:
1. Forever Young | 3C | Real Steel* JPN x Forever Darling by Congrats
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 104 – *101 (from Timeform) – *94 (from Timeform)
Morning Line: 6/1
Game as ever after a rough Kentucky Derby, Forever Young is likely Japan’s best hope to win the Breeder’s Cup Classic in several years. I realize I’ve jinxed him and will continue to knock on my wooden hotel desk until Saturday at 5:41 pm PST. This colt possesses a degree of grit that is impossible to train for, he wants to win every time he breaks from the starting gate. Moving past dwelling on the late-stretch events of his Kentucky Derby, he bounced back from that rough trip to easily win the G1 Japan Dirt Classic over 10f to register an estimated 104 Beyer speed figure. We cannot forget that the dirt course at Oi racecourse is extremely deep and sandy versus our well-compacted dirt surfaces in the USA. If the Japan Dirt Classic was him at less than 100%, watch out on Saturday.
6. Derma Sotogake | 4C | Mind Your Biscuits x Amour Poesie* JPN by Neo Universe* JPN
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 90 – *82 (from Timeform) – *98 (from Timeform)
Morning Line: 20/1
This 3-year-old sensation has struggled to find success as a 4-year-old. However, he definitely should not be discounted on Saturday. Affectionally known as Derma, he has an excuse in his three starts in 2024. The Saudi Cup in February was run after a 4 month break post a career top figure in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. In the Dubai World Cup, he encountered early traffic and never regained his typical competitiveness, and in the Nippon TV Hai, he was coming from a nearly six-month layoff. The Breeder’s Cup has certainly been a target for this world traveler, and at 20/1, he should not be left out of wagers.
7. Ushba Tesoro | 7H | Orfevre* JPN x Millefeui Attach* JPN by King Kamehameha* JPN
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 103 – *94 (from Timeform) – *102 (from Timeform)
Morning Line: 12/1
Bet to 3/1 when gates opened for last year’s Breeder’s Cup Classic after reeling off six consecutive wins, 2024 is a much different story for this battle-hardened stallion. Ushba Tesoro wheeled back from the 2023 Classic to win the G1 10f Tokyo Daishoten on December 29th to set himself up for a productive 2024. While he has not found the winner’s circle yet this year, he’s finished a competitive 2nd in each of his three races. If the pace is as quick as it’s projected, this seasoned veteran may get the perfect setup for his trademark closing rush. Another must-include horse for your wagers on Saturday.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint:
5. Don Frankie | 5H | Daiwa Major* JPN x Weemissfrankie by Sunriver
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 89 – *81 (from Timeform) – 95
Morning Line: 15/1
Japan meets Del Mar royalty via this talented stallion’s pedigree. Lest we forget, Don Frankie’s dam Weemissfrankie won the 2011 G1 Del Mar Debutante, then turned around in 4 weeks to win the G1 Oak Leaf stakes at Santa Anita. Don Frankie is Weemissfrankie’s best-performing offspring after being sold to Japan; he’s raced consistently in dirt sprints with plenty of success – finishing in the exacta in 12 of 17 starts. He ran into the tough Tuz in the Dubai Golden Shaheen but bounced back five months later, winning the G3 Cluster Cup over 6f of muddy dirt in a workman-like performance. That race has certainly added some much-needed foundation to his race-day fitness, however, he is trainer Takashi Saito’s first US starter so I expect his price to reflect that. Look for him to contend for the lead and be a potential overlay to provide some value this weekend.
7. Meta Max | 4C | Into Mischief x Zapara by Not For Love
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 91 – 92 – 86
Morning Line: 20/1
This listed stakes winner was purchased for $1,100,000 in the OBS March 2 year old sale by Susumu Fujita in 2022. His estimated Beyer speed figures compare well to Don Frankie’s; however, this colt likes to do his best running late compared to his fellow countryman. In his last win in the NST Sho on August 18th, he finished his last 3f in 35.5; however, three other horses also finished the race with this time. Meta Max’s edge lies in his ability to not fully detach from the field to pounce in 6th or 7th place versus in 10th or 11th place like his rivals. His regular jockey, Akira Sugawara, will be in the irons on Saturday, so we can look forward to a strong performance from this pair.
9. Remake | 5H | Lani x Sariel* JPN by King Kamehameha* JPN
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: NO FIG – *75 (from Timeform) – *100 (from Timeform)
Morning Line: 8/1
Back-to-back winner of the G3 Korea Sprint is crossing the globe for his first attempt at the Breeders’ Cup. Truly a 6f specialist, finishing in the trifecta 7 from 9 starts at the distance, he’s a remarkably consistent runner. In the G3 Korea Sprint on September 8th, he ran to his favoritism despite the wet track, beating well-meant Jasper Krone and US-based Anarchist despite a five-month layoff. If regular jockey Yuga Kawada can keep him free of trouble, he’ll loom dangerously around the far turn and turn in his best effort. Of note, his final time in the G3 Cluster Cup in August 2023 (1:08.6) over Don Frankie places him squarely in contention with our USA-based runners; however, the Japanese dirt tracks have a considerable amount of sand and are usually considered deeper than USA dirt – food for thought.
Breeders’ Cup Mile:
3. Geoglyph | 5H | Drefong x Aromatico* JPN by King Kamehameha
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 95 –97 – 97
Morning Line: 20/1
This 2022 G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) winner hasn’t won since that effort. He’s been close, most recently finishing second in the G2 Sapporo Kinen to North Bridge. It’s a very promising sign that his last-out jockey, Takeshi Yokoyama, boarded the flight to San Diego for this race on Saturday. Yokoyama did note after the Sapporo Kinen that he is progressing well to his next race, making him a consideration for vertical wagers and B or C tickets for horizontal wagers.
11. Ten Happy Rose | 6M | Epiphaneia* JPN x Fatal Rose* JPN by Tanino Gimlet* JPN
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: 92 –100 – 93
Morning Line: 30/1
This lady was a surprise winner of the 8f G1 Victoria Mile on May 12th at 200+/1, a race previously won by fan favorite white unicorn Sodashi. She was unable to find success at 6f last time out in the G2 Sankei Sho Centaur stakes. However, returning to a mile should suit her better. Against this field, however, it would be a complete surprise if she were to win.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile:
2. T O Saint Denis | 5H | Kitasan Black* JPN x Pole Position* GB by Pivotal* GB
Most Recent 3 Beyer Equivalent Speed Figures: (-)14 –99 – 77
Morning Line: 30/1
To consider his last start in the Meitetsu Hai a regression would be a major understatement, as according to the information currently available to us, his 13th place finish by 60 lengths warrants a negative estimated speed figure. After a similar performance in the Ako Tokubetsu in December, jockey Christophe Lemaire stated, “He took the lead and ran the race in this way. It wasn't that he was exhausted at the end, it was more like he just quit on his own.” Only T O Saint Denis will decide how long and hard he will run on Saturday. Of note, he will have Ryusei Sakai aboard again this weekend, the same jockey that encouraged him to his strong 2nd place finish against First Mission in the G2 Alysheba stakes on Kentucky Oaks day this year.