We’ve tried to leverage some new technology to generate transcripts. These notes will not be perfect, but hopefully, they will supplement the discussion.
We will have several of these and plan to cover a number of different wagers across the two days.
MP
Mikey P, Mike Pribozie in for another plus show. Wagering strategy shows for the Breeders' Cup and quite the lineup that we have for these shows, no bigger name than 2020 Breeders' Cup betting challenge champ. I have to say this is a great honor for me to welcome Marshall Graham in for plus for the Breeders' Cup.
Marshall
Well, I appreciate it. Excited to to talk Breeders Cup. I was a plus subscriber the year I won and it you know I consumed all the materials and I think it's very worth worthwhile. And again, excited for all the offerings this year um to help my handicapping. Hopefully we'll get we'll get a little lucky again.
MP
Well, anybody that knows you and that listens to the the different podcasts and some of the things that that you've done know that you're a big dirt handicapper, a guy that that favors dirt racing over the turf racing. And so I thought, well, no better sequence to look at for this Breeders Cup, the all dirt pick for on Saturday and it involves four races Saturday, the the distaff, the classic, the sprint and the dirt mile.
MP
Marshall, I know you're a big dirt guy. So talk about how much you favor the dirt racing over the turf.
Marshall
Well, I just I think everyone is ultimately a specialist specialist and ah you know, dirt routes are probably the races that I'm most comfortable with. I think that we have good, you know, part of it is there's You know, a lot of the things that I like about handicapping in terms of pedigree, in terms of speed and pace figures ah can really be applied to dirt racing, ah the can really be applied to dirt racing, turf racing. The timing isn't as good. The the fractionals seem to mean is to seem to mean less. Trip is very important. And I don't get a chance to watch a ton of races.
So um so you know just the sort of flow of dirt racing is much more understandable to me. I feel like I could hit pause at the top of the stretch in a dirt race and have a very good idea of what is going to happen based on the dynamics of a race. In a turf race, it's often you hit pause and have absolutely no clue, even despite what the clock might say.
So um So that's why dirt racing is for me. I mean, um i tend to I tend to more or less shy away from these multi-race wagers um because it involves being right so many times. It's also important to to to structure tickets very well. It's hard enough often for me to pick one versus pick four, but um I will support it because it is a because it's a dirt sequence. And I think that, you know, in the Breeders' Cup, there's just a chance to take a lot of different stabs. And if I have an opinion, I want to figure out a way to sort of shape my opinion over all sorts of different, different wagers. So I'm excited about it. It's in some way, it's interesting to me that they did not make this a dirt pick five, ah given that they could have easily just thrown in the Fillion Bear Sprint. But they decided to go the pick four route, and I think it's an interesting sequence.
MP
Absolutely. And it's 50 cent minimum. But there's so many choices on Breeders' Cup weekend. And there's all kind of pick fives, pick fours. You can play, ah obviously, rolling doubles, rolling pick threes. So a pick four that that focuses on the dirt race is obviously straight up your alley. And we'll we'll dig a little bit into the sequence here. I think the biggest favorite on on the weekend is certainly going to be in the Distaff with the Thorpedo Anna. She's 4 to five on the morning line, I would think. And we're starting the the dirt sequence with her. A lot of your play, I would think, has to hinge on whether you're for or against her and how you would structure your play definitely is going to hinge on your opinion of her in the race.
Marshall
Yeah, there's no doubt. I think that's the key to creating a ticket. I think she's the most likely winner. She's maybe the most likely winner of the past few Breeders Cups. I think four to five would be a gift. I just don't see how she's that high. I mean, it seems on paper like she should be two to five.
I was you know there were think she has a lot of question marks coming into this race. I think that in terms of my play in the pick four, I'm going to make a stand against the Travers.
I think that figure was too high. If you take it on face value, her 111 in the Travers makes her one of the fastest fillies of um in recent memory. And it makes her you know basically as fast as is is one of the faster fillies of all time and as fast as fillies when the drug rules were much more liberal.
um where steroids were legal, and so and steroids especially had a profound effect on fillies and mares. I don't you know think racing is fairly clean right now. you know I'm not casting any aspirations. I'm that casting the aspirations the um my point really is that it's such an obscene and huge number ah that I find it hard to be believed. I mean, it implies that Dornoch ran his race, ah given they gave him over 100. They gave Sierra Leone a 109, a fierceness of 112. So I'm not buying that race right as a 111. I also thought her cotillion was a fairly big regression. She barely won. ah She ran sort of a substandard buyer for her.
So my question is, are they going to the well once too often? And so I'm going to make this play in part against the Travers Fig, and I'm going to play against her um for a smaller ticket, and then consider coming back and using her on a more narrow ticket. I think the problem with being against her in this race is she has such a tactical advantage. And even if she has regressed, she still the fastest horse in the field. right So I don't want to go crazy to try to beat her given um given she's the fastest horse in the in the field anyway, even with a regression. And as much as you know as much as Kenny McPeak said that he had backed off on her, and I often don't believe trainers when they say that, I mean, there's almost no evidence that that that they're concerned with her being ready. She worked right back after two weeks after that race. She has four works coming into this race.
So, um, she's a very hard read at two to five. Um, you know, I wouldn't, I wouldn't, I wouldn't, I wouldn't better. Um, I wouldn't bet against her is a hard race as part of the sequence, but I'm for part of it. I'm going to want to try to beat her now.
The problem in trying to beat her is who do we use? Who's actually fast enough to beat her? I'd have loved to bet idiomatic, right? I was even considering an all-in play in the BCBC on idiomatic, but she's out of the race. And so that leaves um very few horses that are fast enough to beat her even on her slowest day. So the two I'm going to use in the beat, torpedo, and a ticket are going to be Raging Sea, and um the Japanese horse awesome result. um Neither of them have the tactical speed. ah you know One of the big fears is Torpedo Ana could be loose on the lead. So I do worry that neither of them are tactical, but at least they're fast enough. i We don't have speed figures on awesome result. I did do some digging into races, especially the race in Kyoto. So um The GRA races you can get some pretty good information on, you can go look up those cards, you can get sectionals, you can get final times, and you can compare those across the card. And that race that Kyoto that she won on February 3rd was very fast. um You know, it would seem to be, on a total guess, a speed figure in the 90s, maybe even 100.
The other races um and a lot of the dirt races in Japan are on the NAR circuit where you can't get data, good data, but she's won seven in a row. um ah She may be the real deal. And Raging Sea, while she has had real setups in her in her strong grade one efforts, um still has some back numbers that would you know would would make her competitive. So those would be the two horses I use to start out this. And then in continuing that theme and being against the Travers, I'm going to play against Fierceness in the classic.
So I'm going to focus my play on Forever Young, who, you know, the one race we saw with Forever Young in the Derby was him closing from the back of the pack. But he's very tactical. And um and I think should get a great trip here. And I think is, you know, if you take sort of fierceness away and you don't believe the the Travers number, I think Forever Young is it has a huge shot here. I don't think he'll be six to one. But um but I think he'll be third choice at least behind Fierceness and City of Troy. And then I'm also going to use um next
I think that Next is going to be a very hard read. And I'm very hopeful that he gets his trip, meaning that that that they let the race come to him. He's shorting up in distances, so he's going to have to be further back. But I want them to let him have his trip. He's going to break from the 14 hole, which I think is optimal. they let They should let him ease into the race mid-pack and make his one devastating ah late run. and um And I think he's got a real shot, and I think it'll be a big price.
Given I'm getting rid of Thorpedo Anna, I'm gonna throw some other longer prices in and I would recommend um if you play against her to not let yourself get beaten by any sort of long shot that you think has a chance. So I'm also gonna throw in Highland Falls, Arthur's Ride in Newgate as sort of backups on that ticket trying to beat Torpedo Anna. As we jump to the last the last two legs, the Breeders Cup sprint and the Breeders Cup dirt mile and the Breeders Cup sprint, I think there's going to be a lot of pace. I just don't see how with Skelly in the race. ah And I mean, he's basically has to go and is always gone. And I think it'll be interesting to watch the clock to see whether they run sub 44 to the half.
Marshall
Uh, you know, my sort of gauge will be if they run 21 and three fifths to the quarter sub 44 around 44 to the half, I think the race could come apart. Um, so I'm going to use Nakatomi and, um, the,
I think Mulliken probably can sit off the pace, and doesn't necessarily have to be on the lead. And then I think Nakatomi is that the best closer. On some of the backup tickets, I'm going to use as well a Remake.
who's the Japanese closer and then use Gun Pilot because gun pilot has is a closer and has had two kind of hidden trips has been against the track in his last two races so I'm going to use those two on some of my backup tickets but really be with nakatomi and um and Mulliken as the two I use so in this race again I'm going against the the potential favorite in um ah in and brad in Brad Cox's versus Federal Judge. And then in the dirt mile,
Marshall
I'm going to use, ah I think, the two best horses in the race. I'm going to use Domestic Product and Skippylongstocking. And again, given I'm trying to, given I'm going to beat Thorpedo Anna, I'm also going to use a few tickets through Saudi Crown. He doesn't really, not really offer a price, but I think there's a chance that he's the speed of the speed. I do think this is another race that has quite a bit of speed, but Saudi Crown, it could be the best of the speed.
Marshall
I think there's a lot of grade three type horses in this race, and I'm going to sort of key on the on the stronger grade one horses. So that's going to be my ticket trying to beat Torpeda Anna. I'm not going to spend a lot of money on this ticket, maybe $75 max in terms of how I structure it. So I'm not going to put all my backups on the same ticket. ah just I just want the shot to make a real score if she can be beaten.
MP
Now, would you ah be the type that would play OK with repeating on OK, I'm against her like to maybe play some backups like, oh, I'm going to play this race to fall apart like it did a few years ago at this racetrack and say, OK, I'm going to take them all in that race and then use an all ticket with like your A type. So would that be a strategy that you'd be interested in or or not so much?
Marshall
I'm not as interested in using the all button, but I would sort of, I would tell people that um if you like a long shot, really consider using it because I think we're quick to throw out long shots because we think, ah we're quick to throw out long shots, but when you get a long shot to come in, it really is a big separator. So I have a hard time believing that something strange is going to happen in that race.
Marshall
and and and ah a huge bomb will come in. So I'm not going to do that necessarily there. But if I can beat torpedo Anna ah with one of those two horses, I want to allow my ah want to allow myself to spread, especially pick up some longer prices potentially in the classic. um And maybe you know i haven't if I find another long shot in the sprint or dirt mile, I would throw them in as well. But that's all contingent on beating Torpedo Ana. If I use Torpedo Ana, I'm going to be more narrow with my strongest opinions.
MP
I feel like the classic is the key to the sequence in a lot of ways because theyre they're the favorites here and have proven ah ah to have, I think, issues. I mean, you have Fierceness, who is is a very hit and miss type. His best day could certainly ah could certainly win this race. You have a city of Troy that's five to two morning line that's never really been on the dirt and has the question mark state to go along with him along with the Japanese horses i mean Forever Young looks good coming into the race and it's certainly gonna take a lot of steam but he certainly no slam dunk that this is that's another race that certainly could be a separator.
Marshall
Yeah, there's no doubt. And that's, you know, if I organize a ticket around for forever young, because even if even in taking steam, he'll be third choice, or next to could be 12 to one, you know, let's say I mark my whole play through next, then then, um you know, then if I can get next in with another long shot, that's, you know, it's gonna pay really well, or I can press up a ticket using Forever Young and Next. And so, for example, even with, let's suppose I build a ticket with Thorpedo Anna in the race, because she's the most likely winner. So like if I bet Thorpedo Anna in the pick four, um then I would use her. And then in this race, if I use ah Forever Young and Next, well, I'm still ah moved i'm still gaining equity because I've beaten Fierceness, I've beaten City of Troy.
Marshall
And then I could play narrowly into ah the sprint, right? Using Nakatomi and using Mulliken. And I've beaten the the favorite in that race as well, federal judge, and then go on into the go on into the dirt mile.
Marshall
and use um and use Domestic Product and use Skippy Longstocking. I mean, that ticket is one by two by two um by two. I mean, that's say a.50 ticket, which you know I could play. you know I could you know I could imagine playing that. ah you know I can imagine playing that 20 times right or 50 times ah to try to try to make a nice score if I can make that happen and I think that would still pay okay because you're beating you're beating some favorites along the way what I probably won't do is I probably won't line up all the favorite and spread as well. I think that's the sort of death knell on these things. And there's a lot of betting opportunities in the Breeders' Cup. And so you know timpithly typically when I'm going to play a wager like this, I'm going to try to have a philosophy in my wager. And you know I'm not going to spend I'm not going to spend a ton of money on it as a percentage of my bankroll.
If I like Next, for example, I don't want to be so tied up to him in the pick four that I potentially cost myself winning if he wins. right He's going to be 10 to 12 to one anyway, so I might as well have a fat win bet on that.
MP
Well, I like the strategies. I like the thoughts on these sequences. And you can apply a lot of these these principles to other sequences. It doesn't just have to be for this dirt pick four. I mean, what Marshall says is true for um basically any bet that you're trying to do. And there's so many to attack. So but you know think about those things whenever you are putting those tickets in. Well, Marshall, I know that obviously you're jumping into the BCBC ah What, that you know, and you're a big win better. Do you have an eye on somebody that may be, you know, your Breeders Cup betting challenge is going to hinge around?
Marshall
Well, not yet. I've not worked my way through it. I have a lot of contingency plans, right? If I have so little money left, this is what I'm going to do. um you know So a lot of it also depends on the board and what it tells me. But you know even in even in talking just through the sequence,
Um, you know, I probably won't play the Distaff, but in the Classic, you know, I'm, I can imagine Forever Young and next being at the core of my plays. Right. If, if my bank rule is pretty strong, you know, maybe, maybe playing forever young, you're going to get four to one.
Marshall
Maybe on him, there's a lot that can be done with that. um Next is interesting to me because, you know again, depending on his price, I think there's a good shot he can hit the board. I think there's there's also you know he's his high variability. I think there's a chance next is last early and um en closes and finishes sixth. But he'll be a price. And you know if I'm more desperate, maybe I would i would use Next. Or maybe ah you know maybe if I have a nice number, I would use next to try to extend things.
Marshall
And um you know in the in the dirt mile, I think Skippy Longstocking is really interesting because he's in the 14 hole. And I think he will get somewhat overlooked being that far out. And um you know I think that on his good day, on his good day he can he can run a winning race. Now he's going to have to do a lot, but there's a you know why quite a good run up to that first term and turn. And if he can settle in, um you know maybe he can get a good trip. And I think he'll be all of that four to one, if not more.
MP
Yeah, and that being the last race, I mean a lot of the contest is certainly gonna hinge on that one, Marshall. Hopefully, if you can pull off another BCBC, I think after coming on and doing this show, I'm gonna talk Pete into letting me do the the recap interview for the the free spot.
Marshall
I love it. That'd be that'd be great. It's ah um exciting, exciting days. I don't want to have, you know, it's funny when I think about the BCBC and I even think about betting the Breeders Cup overall, I will map out some plays, but you have to be very flexible, right? You have to be very flexible to see how the track is playing,
have to be very flexible to see how the board is, right? I'm still, even in the Breeders' Cup betting challenge, looking for value, right? Looking for horses um that that I believe offer value relative to what I think they should go off at. So anyway, fingers crossed it should be a fun weekend. There's so many different ways to bet these races and doing a little bit of homework ahead of time, mapping out some tickets, um you know, make make can make this a lot of fun.
MP
Well, Marshall, this is an absolute blast. Really, thank you. Appreciate the time. Good luck this weekend. And I really hope to be talking to you next week after you win it.
Marshall
Fingers crossed. Good talking to you.
MP
Thanks for subscribing to In The Money Plus. We'll see you guys next time. Enjoy the Breeders' Cup.
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