Breeders' Cup Horse by Horse Analysis
Saturday Races
The ITM Crew has delivered! We have written commentary on every Breeders’ Cup runner this year.
We can’t thank our 14 contributors enough! Each has a slightly different approach and style to their analysis, which is by design.
As you read through these, let us know if a specific format is preferable!
Tip: If the newsletter is truncated in an email app, you can click on "View entire message" to view the entire post. Or, as always, visit the ITM Plus webpage to view all content!
Breeders Cup F&M Sprint - Michael Domabyl
Breeders’ Cup action begins on Saturday with the Filly & Mare Sprint. Ten runners have signed on to compete in this 7f test that will assuredly be monumental in deciding the Eclipse Award for Champion Female Sprinter.
The story of this race begins with Chad Brown and his charge Ways and Means (#9) looks to give the barn its third consecutive win in this event and fourth overall (Goodnight Olive - ‘22, ‘23 & Wavell Avenue ‘15). Ways and Means is listed as a tepid favorite on the morning line at 5-2, but I’d have to think she’ll be much shorter come post time. Despite an abbreviated spring campaign, she made it into the gate for the Kentucky Oaks. Still, she was easily dispatched by the talented Thorpedo Anna while also finding the distance a bit out of her scope. Since returning to one-turn, she’s been unstoppable, rattling off open-length wins in three straight races. However, in her first start against this level of competition, it’s fair to question stomaching a short price.
Her chief rival is the speedy Society (#6), and it looks like she’ll be able to clear off on the front end. She was ultra-impressive, dominating the G1-Ballerina when last seen in late August, but that was with a relatively soft trip over a strip that was kind to front-runners. It’s been a theme of Society’s career that she’s brilliant when able to do things her way on the front end but is quick to fold her hand when met with a challenge.
Heading into that Ballerina, Vahva (#4) was seen as the clear leader of this division, but disappointed in that spot, finishing a well-beaten 3rd at even money. I think there’s a case to be made that being down inside like she was that whole race wasn’t the place to be on the Travers Day card, and she has plenty of races from earlier this year that put her right on par with the top of the market.
Zeitlos (#7) and Scylla (#10) are the others who will take money in this spot. Zeitlos is listed at 6-1 on the morning line, but I’d imagine she’ll be double-digit odds on the day. While she’s improved as a 4YO, her speed figures are just not up to par with the main contenders, and the field she beat in the TCA last time was a much softer bunch. Scylla is a bit more interesting as she certainly didn’t disgrace herself in the Ballerina, which was her only sprint try of the year, though she was probably with the flow of that racetrack. She should get a nice, outside stalking trip under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith and would represent value at her ML of 10-1.
Pleasant (#3) could be a thorn in the side of Society if sent hard from the inside, but I have a hard time viewing her as a real win contender despite having Baffert and Juddmonte in her corner. One Magic Philly (#2) has won her last three starts but was with the flow of the racetrack in the Chillingworth, and that field really wasn’t much once Sweet Azteca failed to show up. The only real chance for Soul of an Angel (#8) would be a complete pace meltdown and those have shown up on occasion in this event. However, I still think her ceiling would be a place or show honor given there’s a few others with solid closing kicks. Wins by either Frost at Dawn (#1) or Pandora’s Gift (Ire) (#5) would be complete shocks as neither of these 3YO fillies has won over the main track and should be sent off at astronomical odds.
Final Verdict
While Ways and Means is squarely the horse to beat, I don’t believe she possesses the type of edge on her main rivals to justify going off below 2-1. I think Society will ultimately face enough pace pressure on both sides to set it up for the midpack runners Vahva and Scylla. I’ll let price be my guide for which one to bet on the day.
Vahva (#4) at 4-1 or higher
Scylla (#10) at 8-1 or higher
Turf Sprint - Eric DeCoster
#1 - Believing - 12/1
A consistent, hard-trying filly from Europe, this runner hasn’t been worse than fourth in her last eight starts. That’s an impressive figure, given the quality and quantity of horses she’s faced at the highest level in England, Ireland, and France. While she’s gone close in recent Group 1 tries, we have to note she has fallen to Bradsell and Big Evs on multiple occasions. She isn’t the speediest type early, so Ryan Moore must work out a tactical, off-the-pace trip from the rail draw. Trainer George Boughey’s only other Breeders’ Cup runner ran a close 3rd in the 2021 Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar, so he’s capable of prepping them for this. An underneath player at the very minimum.
#2 - Motorious - 8/1
The ultimate horse, of course, Motorious, is a perfect 3-for-3 at Del Mar. If there’s any race where that matters, it’s the Turf Sprint. 10 of the 16 winners of this race have had a previous win at the host track. This horse exits a strong win in the G3 Green Flash H. over course and distance, his lone win on the season after two disappointing starts. While he hasn’t replicated his three consecutive triple-digit Beyers he carried into last year’s Turf Sprint - where he was 5th as the favorite - his form is back on the improve.
#3 - Arzak - 30/1
6th in this race a year ago when sent off as an 18-1 longshot. That was his only career start at a flat 5 furlongs, where he closed well, but it was clear he was looking for more ground. He’s been consistent this season without a win since April at Keeneland, his favorite track. He’s finished behind multiple contenders in this race since then, like Cogburn, Big Invasion, and AE Nothing Better, without any reason to think he can turn the tables. Will need a lot of pace to run at.
#4 - Starlust - 30/1
Last year’s Juvenile Turf Sprint winner, Big Evs, should garner plenty of attention in the elder version this year. However, the horse who was only 1 ¼ lengths behind him in 3rd also returns to the States. Starlust ran a great race from off the pace that day, an experience that may give him an edge over other shippers given he’s proven to handle the tight turns and the speed of a 5 furlong U.S. turf sprint. This season, he’s shown on multiple occasions to not be at the level of his foreign counterparts like Bradsell, Big Evs, Believing, and Star of Mystery, so there’s no ability edge here. But he is much better than his 9th place finish last time in France, where he was buried into the running rail many times and given zero chance to factor.
#5 - Ag Bullet - 10/1
Another local winner, Ag Bullet scored over a mile here this summer in a restricted stakes. She is best known for her quick, early speed, which has seen her win two graded stakes when sprinting in 2024. Her only two losses came in tough two-turn, 1 mile races where she burned herself up early. She is one of only three horses in this race with a triple-digit Beyer this year when winning a G2 at Kentucky Downs two starts ago. While she will undoubtedly be forwardly placed, she’s also never run less than 6 furlongs, meaning those speed types with experience going shorter could be quicker early. There is a bit of a question mark in that regard, but if she can translate that speed over this distance, she can play.
#6 – Star of Mystery - 10/1
You may not find a worse last race trip at this year’s Breeders’ Cup than Star of Mystery’s recent outing. Breaking from the rail in the G2 Franklin S. at Keeneland, she got shuffled very far back early, had to navigate tons of traffic, and still kicked on to be beaten less than a length. She has had a stellar season for a three year old filly by hanging with older males on multiple occasions. That includes a 3rd in the G1 Jaipur S. where the winner that day, Cogburn, had everything his way. The one concern has to be the flat 5 furlongs. She is a winner over the distance, but closing, as is her style, doesn’t always fare well over this course and distance.
#7 - Howard Wolowitz - 30/1
One of three 2024 Grade/Group 1 winners entered in this race. It came last time out in the Grade 1 Franklin-Simpson S. at Kentucky Downs, a sharp victory that yielded a career-best 97 Beyer. However, most people recognized that as a weak race heading into it, and I think everyone agreed with the sentiment afterward. To be fair to this horse, he should probably have a three-race winning streak into this, as he suffered the trip from hell two starts ago at Saratoga. But at the end of the day, these are deeper waters than anything he’s faced, and he would have to improve a ton to factor.
#8 - Big Invasion - 20/1
Big Invasion looks to make amends after a narrow runner-up effort in the Turf Sprint last year. This season has not been a good one for this horse. While he’s been a victim of weird trips at times, it’s clear we still haven’t seen his best in 2024. The one exception was two starts ago in the Harvey Pack S. at Saratoga. He displayed his strongest closing kick to win by a neck over future G2 winner, Our Shot, and posted a 99 Beyer in the process. That kind of race is enough to hit the board again in the Turf Sprint, however he’s shown that’s not a guarantee this year. Worth nothing he’s been first or second in 5 of 6 starts at this distance.
#9 - Cogburn - 7/5
Many folks will consider this horse their banker of the Breeders’ Cup. I bet a few people skipped over this preview entirely because they already know they’re hammering Cogburn. So, if you’re still here and reading, thanks! Cogburn had already proven his worth as a top-level turf sprinter, but he took it to new heights in 2024. There are three starts, three wins, and electric speed figures to accompany it. He’s dominated some of the world’s best in this division with devastating ease. His streak of three straight Beyers of 107 or better is rare in modern racing. Worried he’s a one-trick pony who can only win on the front end? Fear not, he won three straight stakes races last year from well off the pace. He is simply the complete package.
#10 - Isivunguvungu - 20/1
A fun addition to this year’s Breeders’ Cup, this guy was a champion in South Africa before shipping to the U.S. earlier this year. After stringing together a long series of works for the Graham Motion barn, he debuted in a minor stakes at Colonial. He sat a comfortable stalking trip before kicking on and outlasting the competition to win. It was a solid first impression, but it does leave you wanting more heading into American start number two. He seems like a sturdy type who, based on my looks in the morning, has gotten more fit from the run. Therefore I think that improvement is likely, however I don’t know if it’s enough to play a part in this race.
#11 - Big Evs - 12/1
Big Evs will look to become the second horse to complete the Juvenile Turf Sprint-Turf Sprint double after taking out the JTS in 2023. That was a big performance for a horse who adapted beautifully to American-style racing and was a no-doubt winner that day. He is 2-for-4 on the season, with a strong win over Group 1 quality horses in the G2 King George S. at Goodwood two starts ago. Last time out, he had no apparent excuses when losing the G1 Nunthorpe S. behind multiple other Turf Sprint starters. However, he’s now only had two career races out of the money, and both came in the Nunthorpe S. at York, where nothing went against him. If we’re taking that to mean he doesn’t like that track, that absolutely makes him a player in the Turf Sprint.
#12 - Bradsell - 7/2
Europe’s best sprinter took out a pair of Group 1’s this season and looks a big threat in his American debut. He beat many other Turf Sprint shippers in both the G1 Nunthorpe S. and G1 Flying Five S. a few months ago, then last time out, was run down over a testing turf course in France while still finishing ahead of those aforementioned rivals. His gate speed is rare for a Euro horse, which should be a huge asset from a good outside draw in this race. If he can establish strong early position, then he will certainly be a win contender and is the biggest threat to Cogburn.
Also Eligibles
AE#13 - Nothing Better – 30/1
Always a consistent, lower-level stakes type, Nothing Better rides a three-race runner-up streak into the Turf Sprint. He has risen into tougher company with decent results lately, almost beating Isivunguvungu two starts ago and running a solid 2nd in the G3 Belmont Turf Sprint most recently. While consistent, we’d still have to see plenty of improvement for this guy to be a player at this level.
AE#14 – Charcoal – 30/1
Surprised when 2nd in the G2 Woodford S. last time at 29-1. It was a career-best performance from a visual, class, and figure standpoint as he equaled a lifetime topping 95 Beyer that day. His string of 94 and 95 Beyers over his last three starts is easily the strongest streak of his career. However, he was beaten fair and square by Cogburn two back, and it’s hard to see him reversing the tables. Another pace-dependent type.
AE#15 - Frost At Dawn – 30/1
Cross-entered in the Filly & Mare Sprint where she likely runs unless this race falls apart completely. This three-year-old filly actually has beaten Star of Mystery before, dating back to March of this year, when she won a Group 3 very impressively at Meydan over older males. However, her two losses at the Group 1 level immediately after signaled she may not be that quality. In returning to running against only fillies and mares, she has lost twice more, but her run in the G2 Franklin S. at Keeneland was encouraging, given she was so far back and was only beaten a length and change. Needs to sit a more forward trip than that day to be most effective.
Final Thoughts
This year’s Turf Sprint is unique from a race flow perspective. There are very few dedicated front-running types, and those present have proven to rate throughout their careers. It is likely #9 Cogburn will be able to use his early speed effectively here with the lack of confirmed speed inside of him. #5 Ag Bullet and #7 Howard Wolowitz will try to sit forward trips, but unless they go for broke, they won’t be able to outfoot Cogburn early. A pair of Euro’s will sit perfect trips pressing the favorite. #11 Big Evs and #12 Bradsell have unusually strong gate speed for European trainees, and how hard they go after Cogburn from the outside will determine the outcome of this race. I expect Cogburn to outlast them all and win as the chalk, holding off those two Euro rivals, with #2 Motorious and #8 Big Invasion closing well but far too late.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff - Jessica Paquette
#1 Candied – She has been keeping company with some of the best fillies and mares in the country all season and while she has not been much of a match for Thorpedo Anna or Idiomatic, she has not embarrassed herself and has shown she can take her race on the road. She proved last year she can ship to California and be competitive, but the question remains whether or not she has continued to progress as a sophomore.
#2 Thorpedo Anna – She is one of the most exciting horses in training and has danced every dance this year. Will the tough campaign catch up to her? Perhaps, but the upside of Ken McPeek’s transparency in her training is that we have gotten to watch her every step of the way. She looks like she has blossomed even further this Fall and is strictly the one to beat.
#3 Batucada – She was gallant in defeat last time but has not been consistent enough against stakes competition to warrant strong consideration here.
#4 Alice Verite – A remote longshot for the international invaders. She comes into this race off of her worst performance from six starts this year and, at this point, has not shown that she is a true Group 1 type of competitor. She has some speed out of the gate and will likely be involved in the early pace.
#5 Sugar Fish – Though she has won by some gaudy margins, those victories have come against lesser company, and these waters look very deep.
#6 Raging Sea – With the defection of Idiomatic, she is the biggest threat to the formidable Thorpedo Anna. She has reeled off three consecutive victories, dethroned Idiomatic gamely two back, and was tenacious in her last win. As her pedigree indicates, as a daughter of Curlin, she is just getting better as she gets older, and she will be rallying late.
#7 Honor D Lady – She came up flat in her first start off of a mid-year freshening and could have some upside with a race under her belt.
#8 Miss New York – She returned from an extended layoff with a lackluster performance at Parx in July but has rounded into form smartly with back-to-back wins. This is a big step up in class.
#9 Awesome Result – How good is she? Perfect and undefeated from seven starts, she will get the class test of her brief career. Evidence has shown that the Japanese contingent does not make the trip without a chance, but she is up against it with some serious star power in this race, even with the withdrawal of Idiomatic.
#10 Che Avasora (ARG)– This seems like a bold move after a disappointing domestic debut.
Breeders' Cup Turf - Andrew Harman
A wide open and competitive renewal, albeit lacking a real superstar European raider. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has won the race a record 7 times and is doubly represented. Still, Charlie Appleby's 2022 champion Rebel's Romance heads the betting after a sixth Group 1 victory in Germany last time. He's been handed a tough post in 11, though, and the trends are against older horses, with 6yos+ a combined 0/55 in the history of the Turf (thanks to Howard Kravets for the stat), so everyone will fancy their chances to upset him. Let's take a look through the whole field (morning lines listed):
1 Rousham Park 20/1 T: Hiroyasu Tanaka, J: Christophe Lemaire
Hard to weigh up as he disappointed in his prep race and hasn't run over quite this far, but connections are still happy, and his best form puts him right in the mix. He'll probably be settled off the pace and have a strong finishing kick on his day, so this sharp 12f with pace to aim at might just suit him if he gets the gaps from the inside drawer - a lively outsider.
2 Emily Upjohn 5/1 T: John & Thady Gosden, J: Frankie Dettori
It's exciting to see her reunited with old ally Frankie Dettori, and a real vote of confidence from the Gosdens that she's not only travelled here but also takes on the colts. Winless in 6 runs this year, you might think that she's lost a step as a 5yo, but she was a cracking 3rd behind the subsequent Arc 1-2 in a strong Prix Vermeille last time. The flow of the race was against her at Meydan, Epsom, and Goodwood, and she was sent for home too far out by Kieran Shoemark at both the Curragh and York. She takes a keen hold but should get cover from an inside draw and some pace to settle off. 12f on fast ground suits her perfectly, so I think she'll run a huge race.
3 Shahryar 10/1 T: Hideaki Fujiwara, J: Cristian Demuro
A grand campaigner whose dam Dubai Majesty won the 2010 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, he was an unlucky 3rd in the race last year as Cristian Demuro switched off the rail, handing what proved to be the ideal passage to Auguste Rodin while running into traffic himself. While he's not getting any younger, he ran much better in his prep race this time than last year and looked all set to run his usual solid race in optimal conditions from a handy draw.
4 Luxembourg 12/1 T: Aidan O'Brien, J: Ryan Moore
A Group 1 winner at 2,3,4, and 5, he's been relegated to pacemaking duties for Auguste Rodin since dominating the Coronation Cup at Epsom in May, so we haven't seen the best of him. As the first string here with Ryan Moore back on, I can see him taking a trail while stablemate Wingspan contests the pace, so this could be his time to shine. Aidan reports that he's in the best shape he's been all season at his favourite time of year and thinks 12f on fast ground is ideal. He's never had a proper chance under these conditions, as he was part of the overly strong pace in this summer's King George at Ascot on his only try. Having missed soft-ground options at Longchamp and Ascot recently, he should be fresh and primed for a big effort here.
5 Jayarebe 4/1 T: Brian Meehan, J: Sean Levey
He has an appealing profile as an improving 3YO against an exposed group of older horses, and the return to fast ground is no concern as conditions were very quick for his Royal Ascot win. He does have to prove himself on this type of track, though, as his worst performance of the year came around the tight left-handed turns of Chester and also at the 12f distance, having been campaigned at 10f in Europe. I'm not too worried about the extra ground and connections are confident he will even improve for it, but he does like to go forward and this could prove an issue with other speed in here.
6 Far Bridge 6/1 T: Christophe Clement, J: Joel Rosario
Clear pick of the home contingent, he's improved for the step up to 12f the last twice, with victories in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer and Joe Hirsch. However, they were both small-field affairs and he enjoyed the run of things in front in the former, where he was also receiving significant weight from his main rivals. The latter turned into a slog in rain-softened ground and doesn't bear much resemblance to the test he'll face on Saturday against stronger opposition. He's likely to be a Tote underlay as the familiar name after the trial wins - he's available at 12/1 in the international markets, double the morning line.
7 Grand Sonata 20/1 T: Todd Pletcher, J: Tyler Gaffalione
He earned his place with a closing victory in a strongly-run Grade 2 Kentucky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs last time, but Del Mar is a very different track, and he was a well-beaten last of five behind Far Bridge in the Sword Dancer. He's still unexposed at this distance, to be fair, having mostly raced over 9-10f, but it's hard to see him getting involved at the business end.
8 Cabo Spirit 30/1 T: George Papaprodromou, J: Abel Cedillo
He enjoyed himself out in front last time when allowed to control the 10f Grade 2 John Henry at modest fractions, so he should be part of the early-pace battle. That wasn't a proper stamina test at the distance, though, so he looks a very doubtful stayer over an extra couple of furlongs, having raced at around a mile for most of his career.
9 El Encinal ML 30/1 T: Francisco Garcia, J: Armando Ayuso
He qualified for this back in December with a late surge to victory in the Gran Premio Carlos Pellegrini Internacional in Argentina, despite carrying his head at a very awkward angle. After more than 8 months off, he returned to California for new trainer Francisco Garcia but hasn't beaten a rival in a pair of Grade 2 races, so he'll need to rediscover his best form to have any hope of figuring.
10 Wingspan 15/1 T: Aidan O'Brien, J: Wayne Lordan
Improving 3yo filly who only made her debut in April. Aidan said they regretted not going harder in front when second at Ascot last time to make use of her stamina. Presumably, this means she'll be sent for the lead here ahead of Jayarebe and Cabo Spirit, which would also allow her to get across from a wide post in 10. Fast ground is a concern, as she's handled soft well and hasn't run on anything faster than Timeform has described as good. This is a tough ask just two weeks after a hard race, and I think the closers will sweep past her.
11 Rebel's Romance 5/2 T: Charlie Appleby, J: William Buick
The 2022 champion has bounced back brilliantly this year from a write-off 2023 campaign, where an unseated rider mishap followed by a soft ground defeat in his prep races saw him stay at home. His only defeat in the King George is easily excused, given he sat too close to a very strong pace, and though he made hard work of a simple task at Cologne last time, the slow pace didn't suit, and he reportedly wasn't fully fit with an eye on bigger targets such as this and the Hong Kong Vase. Ordinarily, he'd clearly be the horse to beat, but although he's versatile tactically, I feel stall 11 could make things very awkward. He will surely have to cover a lot of ground out wide or be a hostage to the pace scenario by committing forward or back in the field. Maybe he'll be good enough to overcome it, but he's hard to support as the 5/2 favourite.
12 Gold Phoenix 15/1 T: Philip D'Amato, J: Kyle Frey
A solid hold-up performer, he was a creditable 4th in the race last year at a big price. However, he had a lovely run-through on the inside, missing all the trouble, so he was probably flattered. He was inconvenienced by the slow tempo when only 5th in the John Henry last time, to be fair, but he'll likely get a long way back from a difficult draw here, so it's hard to see him doing any better than running into mid-division.
13 There Goes Harvard 30/1 T: Michael McCarthy, J: John Velazquez
A creditable 2nd in the John Henry last time, this is his first try at 12f, and the trainer is confident he'll stay, but this is a tough ask from the outside draw, and he wouldn't be on any of my tickets.
Verdict: 1st Emily Upjohn, 2nd Luxembourg, 3rd Shahryar
There should be a solid pace fought out by Wingspan, Jayarebe, and Cabo Spirit, so I'm interested in the group projected to be tracking the leaders while saving ground towards the inside. Preference is for Emily Upjohn, with her fillies' allowance and Frankie back in the plate, ahead of solid contenders Luxembourg and Shahryar. Still, all three are multiple G1 winners with conditions to suit them. At the prices, I'm happy to fade the favourite Rebel's Romance, who could be poorly placed early from a tough draw, and I'd be surprised if the home team can match up to the internationals. Enjoy the race!
Breeders’ Cup Classic - Nick Tammaro
ARTHUR’S RIDE
Bill Mott trainee burst onto the scene with a smashing Whitney score over a sloppy track in early August. That led to a Jockey Club Gold Cup tilt a month later where he flopped completely, this time on a dry oval at the old Spa. He is probably not as good as what we saw in the Whitney, and probably not as bad as what we saw in the JCGC. The issue is how you trust the gray son of Tapit. Add into the mix his trainer is 0 for his last 17 in graded stakes on dirt and in the midst of a 5-83 run at the time of pre-entries ($0.56 ROI).
He has a great deal of speed and figures to use it, but when things didn’t go his way last time he completely folded. His ceiling figures to be an on the board finish after slugging it out early and tiring late. The outside draw was likely not the worst result for him, either.
CITY OF TROY
One of the most interesting runners we’ve ever seen in the Breeders’ Cup, as this colt is by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify and is trying dirt for the first time. It is no secret that Aidan O’Brien covets a win in the BC Classic as much as any race in the world and likely feels stronger about this colt than any he has started before, given the top side of his pedigree. It’s not like he hasn’t been close before, what with Giant’s Causeway and Declaration of War earning BCC in the money finishes.
The interesting variable here is the speed City of Troy possesses, as he can be forwardly placed and figures to have no issue with a likely spirited early gallop. There’s just no telling whether he’ll handle dirt. The first few impressions he makes on the main track after quarantining will be huge, even though O’Brien asks virtually nothing of his BC starters in the AM. The dam side pedigree is all turf, even if it includes multiple GI winners. The bottom line is he’ll be a fraction of the kind of price you’d want on a horse with this many question marks, and for that reason, I’ll toss him altogether.
DERMA SOTOGAKE
The 2023 BC Classic runner-up is winless in three starts since in races run in three different countries. He was a dull 5th last time out in the Nippin TV Hai, a NAR circuit event run on September 25 which also served as a final prep for Ushba Tesoro. The difficult thing to come to grips with regarding this son of Mind Your Biscuits is how he does his best running. He was a smashing wire-to-wire winner in the UAE Derby over 18 months ago, and that was his last win. He was badly out-sprinted in the Kentucky Derby but stayed much closer in a considerably faster-paced BC Classic. He seems to always break quickly and even did so last time out.
The Funabashi run last time out was underwhelming, as he capitulated inside the quarter pole and put up no fight. He is seemingly off-form but is here because of his potential in American dirt races. The price will be fair, given his stock has never been lower, but it’s hard to back him confidently.
FIERCENESS
Racing’s most enigmatic horse, at least in 2024, will arrive in Del Mar off a career-best effort in the Travers 10 weeks ago. He finally put it all together on the biggest of stages, stalking a moderate pace and holding sway late over the fabulous filly Thorpedo Anna. That was his second straight top-shelf performance at the Spa, and 3rd overall when you include his sensational debut.
The issue with Fierceness had previously been his consistency, as he sprinkled in horrid efforts in the Champagne, Holy Bull, and Kentucky Derby amid his 3 jaw-dropping wins before the Run for the Roses. When he met adversity on the first Saturday in May, he folded and left his backers further confounded. He needs to chase outside on a moderate pace to be at his very best, and the 10 furlong trip seems on the outer edges of his capabilities, even with the Travers score. Having real speed immediately to his outside is not a great set up for him whatsoever. Do you want to take 4-1 or so on this horse with a fast pace expected and better horses than he’s ever faced before?
FOREVER YOUNG
The well-traveled son of Real Steel is back in the US, seeking revenge for a narrow miss in the Kentucky Derby earlier this year. He was a very strong 3rd here in May, rallying from well off a strong pace to miss by a head during a roughly run stretch drive. The connections eyed this objective shortly after that, giving him ample time to recover from the travel and taxing Derby try. He returned on October 2 at Ooi in the Japan Dirt Classic at 1 ¼ miles and was victorious with a perfect pace-stalking trip. He showed much more speed that day than we had seen at Churchill and gamely held off an upstart runner in Mikki Fight. That colt was coming off a win in the Group III Leopard and put forth a strong effort behind this globe trotter.
His increased early speed last time out is a very encouraging sign, and the fact that he has been campaigned conservatively with this race as the goal is positive. The inside draw should do him no harm unless we’re dealing with a bad rail. The fact that he has run well in every start speaks to his consistency and makes him my pick as he seeks BC Classic victory for Japan.
HIGHLAND FALLS
If you stick around long enough sometimes good things can happen. Trainer Brad Cox moved this son of Curlin into graded stake company earlier this year when he shipped him west for the Santa Anita Handicap. It didn’t go well, but he has subsequently won twice, including a Jockey Club Gold Cup score where he barreled clear late after subjugating the heavily favored Arthur’s Ride.
Flavien Prat was likely the key to his improved run at the Spa, but this beautifully bred colt will not have him back aboard in here. His increased speed last time is encouraging, as the Del Mar main track during the summer meet was heavily tilted toward front-running types. He is a real player for a slice of this thing.
MIXTO
The Longshot Pacific Classic winner has been off since winning the biggest race of the Del Mar summer meet. He sat second that afternoon and pounced around the far turn, scoring an upset few could have envisioned given his previous eligibility for an N1X and his recent defeat in Northern California. He has earned his way here, winning an incredibly weak running for a summer staple in the handicap division. A finish in the upper half of the field would be a big surprise.
NEWGATE
Bob Baffert trainee narrowly missed last time in the California Crown, surging late to fail by just a head at 7-1. He has had brushes with top-level success, including a Santa Anita Handicap score that came as a slight upset earlier this year. Baffert likely sought a prep last time and had to be pleased with the effort. His failed trip to Dubai did not prove taxing, and he ran his normal race last time, if not perhaps slightly better than usual.
The ability to lay close and grind is a weapon in this type of race, and he has a home-field advantage, having raced three times over this strip with a prior win. He can get a spot in the back-end of the trifecta and superfecta here.
NEXT
Many have clamored for the distance wunderkind to try Grade I competition. Boy, are they likely to be disappointed. Don’t get me wrong, I have tremendous respect for this horse and his astute connections who took him for $62,500 before he earned them over a million bucks. The issue is that he has been beating up on weak competition, going distances at which few American horses excel. Add in that the majority of his recent starts have come in slow-paced races where he could gallop along and pull clear when ready. What will he do in a faster-paced race with real Grade I horses? I’d say fail, so he’ll be no part of my wagering action, and I’ll be surprised if he’s in the Hi-Five.
PYRENEES
The race’s first also eligible only gets in with a scratch from the main body, as all of those have a first preference in this race. He improved in a victory at Pimlico on Preakness Eve, taking the Pimlico Special in game fashion over Kingsbarns. That runner exacted some revenge six weeks later at Churchill Downs while this guy checked in second. He has remained consistent for connections that are in the midst of a banner year. The distance is his friend; he now has a win and a second in graded stakes beyond 9 panels. The issue is that he’s not fast enough to win this and will likely get scorched in a fast-paced race.
RATTLE N ROLL
Grade I winning juvenile has never really panned out as an older horse and clearly had something go awry at the end of 2023. He returned last month in the Lukas Classic and hardly embarrassed himself, which was nice given the talent he had shown as an early season 4YO. Kenny McPeek entered him in the Fayette on October 26 at Keeneland, and it would be surprising if he doesn’t go there in lieu of a trip out west for a race full of horses against whom he cannot be competitive.
SENOR BUSCADOR
The Saudi Cup winner has been brought along slowly by veteran horseman Todd Fincher. He took the old-school route of running 7 panels off the elongated trip to the Middle East, and he showed no “ring rust,” finishing fourth at 4-1 in a slow-paced race. It was his California Crown effort that proved somewhat alarming, given it was hardly much of an “effort.” He finished 7th in this race a year ago, and it’s important to note the Saudi Cup win likely had a great deal to do with the one-turn configuration, and even more to do with the supersonic pace set by Saudi Crown. The reputation will earn this son of Mineshaft some support, but he is not a serious win candidate.
SIERRA LEONE
The darling of the 3YO ranks has seen his once-loaded bandwagon have a mass exodus. He failed as the favorite in his third straight start at the Spa last time out, which was also his best effort to date. The pace did not materialize in the Travers the way it appeared it would on paper, and that worked squarely against this son of 2017 (and Del Mar) Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Gun Runner. He put in a nice late bid to finish 3rd at 8/5 and now figures to finally offer some semblance of value to those still willing to land here.
The concern with this horse is that he gives himself so much to do with his running style, even if his immaturity seems to be a thing of the past. One thing you know you’re getting here is a decent pace, and with a better price than you’ve gotten in recent starts, he becomes awfully enticing.
TAPIT TRICE
You would have made this horse 20-1 at the half-mile pole last time out, but he still looked hopeless at the quarter pole. He eventually moved outside and unleashed a potent late kick to wear down the heavily favored Skippylongstocking. It was his second strong effort of 2024, even if those performances had slower speed figures than he’d need to win here. He has always had a bundle of talent and seems to be improving as a 4YO. The presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., who will seek to get him comfortable early before unleashing a late bid, is a positive thing as he seeks a 3rd BC Classic win since 2018.
USHBA TESORO
In late September, the 2023 Dubai World Cup winner was prepped for this engagement in the Nippon TV Hai at Funabashi. He made the only meaningful off-the-pace move in that race, as eventual winner William Barrows wired the field along the rail. Derma Sotogake was vanquished after chasing that pace, but the third-place finisher also stayed on gamely. That type of effort, squarely against the race flow, is exactly what you want to see from a horse who had been off for 5 months.
The issue here is his running style. It is borderline impossible to make a living as a deep-closing dirt router in Southern California, and he will likely spot a lot of ground in the opening stages. If he can stay a bit closer early, as he did when last seen in Japan, his chances will improve immensely. The fact he’ll be the 2nd choice of the Japanese raiders only makes him more interesting. I’m using him as an A.
Breeders’ Cup FM Turf - Steven Bonnick
#1 Beautiful Love – fair juvenile in the UK last year who has steadily improved over the course of 2024. This trip and going will prove ideal, having won a Grade 3 under such conditions two back and didn’t run too poorly at the same level in the Waya Stakes last time out when third. However, that run exposed her limitations, and a best Beyer of just 88 leaves her a long way short.
#2 Full Count Felicia – bold front-runner will play the hare here, having made all of the running in the EP Taylor last time out. She looks improved since joining Kevin Attard and adopting bold front-running tactics, and she also brings the best last time out Beyer into the field with a 101. However, I’m not convinced of the accuracy of that – TimeformUS has her lower – and I think she was seen to maximum effect there, allowed to establish a big lead without having to work too hard. That said, she is the lone speed in the field, with the next highest TimeformUS Early Pace figure just 87 compared to her 111. Will attempt to repeat the tactics of last time, and I think her prospects depend on whether she is allowed as much rope.
#3 Cinderella’s Dream – a very talented and fast filly who I thought might win the English 1000 Guineas following a couple of impressive efforts in Dubai. She could only manage mid-pack there, but things probably didn’t fall right for her, and she has shown her class in two starts since, winning the Belmont Oaks and the Saratoga Oaks. Both of those wins came against the flow and it’s clear that this daughter of Shamardal has a wicked turn of foot, which allowed her to overcome a lack of pace. I’d be happy to say I think this is the horse with the most ability in this field, but I have a few doubts. With the projected pace, I could see her ending up a long way back. Also, I’m not sure she wants this distance. She clearly has tons of speed, and her cadence is really high, closer to a sprinter than a middle-distance horse.
#4 War Like Goddess – only one 6-year-old has ever won the F&M Turf and no 7-year-old has achieved the feat. How many 7-year-old mares are in training and have the ability? War Like Goddess ticks both of those boxes and, while perhaps not quite at the level she was last year, is still capable of running to three-figure Beyers, as she did last time out vs boys in the Turf Classic. TimeformUS has that run as comfortably the fastest by a US horse in the field this season, and this may finally be her year, with this 11 furlong distance looking ideal.
#5 Didia – finished in front of War Like Goddess in New York, but she’d had a prep for that, and WLG hadn’t. Has since finished behind several of these in the Diana and the John C Mabee, although probably just prepping for this in the latter. I don’t think she’s quite good enough to land a race like this, but she should be prominent and might get the first crack at Full Count Felicia.
#6 Ylang Ylang – non-runner.
#7 Content – looked extremely unlucky not to win at this meeting last year in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, throwing in some blistering late splits but only making it into fourth. She has been brought along steadily this season, probably with this race in mind, but she really showed her class in the Yorkshire Oaks, where she won despite pulling hard. She was probably on the best part of the track that day which may inflate her rating a little, and she hasn’t run as well in two starts since, although those were on ground that was probably a bit soft for her liking. I didn't mind her run in the l’Opera as she was clearly going to improve for that run, but she was pretty disappointing last time out in the Fillies & Mares Stakes. She’s got a solid chance here on her best form if you are happy to toss those efforts, but she’s around 3/1 now at the time of writing, and you’re backing a horse who’s finished 10th and 11th in the last two starts.
#8 Hang The Moon – big improver for Philip D’Amato this year and has won her last two from off the pace against the flow. Only defeat this season was when trying to reel in Ag Bullet over a mile off a slow pace, which was probably an impossible task. She is strong at the finish in her last two victories, which suggests she will enjoy this extra furlong, and her good course form is a nice edge. Needs more on the numbers but is going the right way and not out of this.
#9 Anisette – a talented performer who should be well placed. Course form a plus but her best form is over shorter. I don’t think she’ll stay, and even if she does, I don’t think she’s good enough.
#10 Moira – finished behind Moira in the EP Taylor last time out but probably had little chance with how the race panned out. She was closing nicely to the line and galloped out well, which slightly assuages some stamina doubts based on her third in the F&M Turf last year, where she looked like she was wilting a little late. She ran a 128 TimeformUS figure there, which would likely be good enough here, and may now be at her peak aged 5, although the draw could have been better.
#11 Beach Bomb – South African import, a Grade 1 scorer back home. Ran well first up in a minor Stakes but well held behind Hang The Moon in the Rodeo Drive last time and did not look like she wanted the extra distance there.
#12 Soprano – no match for the revived She Feels Pretty last time, but still ran a solid race to finish second in the QEII Cup. A strong stayer over a mile in Europe, connections are gambling on the distance, bringing about the necessary improvement, but all I see in her pedigree are sprinters and milers (dam is an unraced half-sister to BC Turf Sprint winner, Obviously). It's hard to see her staying, and the draw is also a negative.
#13 Sunset Glory – lightly-raced filly was sent off favourite for the Rodeo Drive but could only finish fifth. Not seen to best effect there as she got in a little trouble in the lane without looking unlucky. I think she’s better ridden up with the pace, but she’s also a keen horse who may do too much if pushed on from a wide stall. Need to improve anyway.
Verdict: No standout performer in this field. Much will depend on pace and what, if anything, wants to push Full Count Felicia along; she could win if left alone. If she stays, Cinderella’s Dream looks the one to beat, while Content should be going close if back to her best, although there’s little juice in her price. Moira should run her race again, but everything looks in place for WAR LIKE GODDESS to fire a big effort. She comes into the race in top form, has the numbers to go close, and should get a good trip. Hang The Moon looks the most interesting outsider at 20/1 and is worth a dabble in the place markets.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint - Dean Keppler
SELECTIONS: 10-11-8-6
Recommended Wagers: Win Bet 10
Exacta Box: 10 With 6,8,11
Trifecta: 10 With 6,8,11 With ALL
1-Raging Torrent (10-1): has won three straight for the locally based trainer Doug O’Neill but looks more like a seven-furlong specialist than one that flourishes at six panels, and his overall record indicates that fact. The recent Grade 2 Pat O’Brien winner likes the Del Mar main track and has run some of the top Beyers in this field but is likely to regress on the cutback. There’s no denying he remains in razor-sharp form, however, as he continues to train swiftly during a.m. trials. At seven furlongs, this 3-year-old colt would be the pick. At seven furlongs, he can’t be trusted at odds likely shorter than his listed 10-1 morning line.
2-Gun Pilot (20-1): has one triple-digit Beyer from 13 career tries for trainer Steve Asmussen and comes into this race off a pair of in-the-money finishes in the Grade 1 Forego and Grade 2 True North at Saratoga. His lone Grade 1 came at seven furlongs in the Churchill Downs Stakes back in May, and we’d have liked to have seen more solid form and momentum heading into this taxing event. The gut feeling is that unlike his Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning sire, Gun Runner, he’s overmatched this afternoon.
3-Federal Judge (3-1): co-tops the field’s best last-out Beyer (106) with an impressive 5 ½-length victory in the Grade 2 Phoenix at Keeneland on Oct. 4 for the Brad Cox barn. This 4-year-old gelding by Army Mule makes his first start in Southern California in top career-best form and has a solid chance of winning this year’s edition if he takes to the local footing. The 4-year-old gelding’s Beyers have increased with each subsequent start this year. Irad replaces Prat, who lands on Mullikin.
4-Nakatomi (6-1): finished third at 26-1 in this event last year for trainer Wesley Ward and uses the same Grade 2 Phoenix Keeneland prep path as this year’s stepping stone for today’s event. Ironically, he also finished second last year in the Phoenix before putting forth a top effort for one of the country's most accomplished veteran sprint trainers. The 6 for 19 Grade 1-winning 5-year-old gelding will need to move forward off his Phoenix performance, and the gut feeling is that he remains a notch below some of these that entered this afternoon.
5-Don Frankie (Jpn) (15-1): is a Japanese invader with a ton of talent, making the trek overseas off a nice prep win over the muddy going on August 14. The 5-year-old finished second in the Grade 1 Dubai Golden Sheehan two-back and has finished first or second in 12 of 17 career tries. A wet track specialist (5-2-0) from seven starts, he’s not likely to catch an off-track at sunny Del Mar, and he’ll be a pass for us this afternoon with too much to prove facing local sprint specialists over dry footing.
6-Bentornato (30-1): has been the gem of consistency for conditioner Jose D’Angelo, having hit the board in all eight career tries to date. An earner of nearly $800k in purse winnings, the son of Valiant Minister heads west for his first Southern California start, exiting a career-best (101) Beyer with his recent game victory in the Grade 2 Gallant Bob at PARX on Sept. 21. A perfect 3 for 3 going today’s six-furlong trip, he makes the third start of the form cycle today. He is not without a longshot punter’s chance with another forward move.
7-Meta Max (20-1): is a pricey $1.1 million son of Into Mischief who has done all his racing in Japan for owner Fujita Susumu and trainer Hideyuki Mori. This conditioner is 0 for 5 in Breeders’ Cup races, including a recent 12th-place finish by Jasper Krone in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last November. Despite his 5 for 14 record, he must improve considerably to compete with this Grade 1-caliber lineup and is a solid pass for us.
8-Straight No Chaser (5-1): is super quick out of the gate and was a smashing 6 ¼-length winner of the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship on Sept. 29 when returning off a four-month freshening. It was an excellent prep for this. The MyRacehorse-owned 5-year-old trained by Dan Blacker has never tried the Del Mar main track but has proven he can fire over multiple surfaces and venues with sharp victories at Oaklawn Park, Pimlico, and the aforementioned Santa Anita Park. He sports the field’s fastest-registered Beyer with a (107) in the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Stakes and is dangerous with an alert break.
9-Remake (Jpn) (8-1): has won half his career starts and returned off a six-month freshening to take the Grade 3 Korea Sprint in Seoul over a bulky field of 15 on Sept. 8. The Japanese-bred colt is trained by Koichi Shintani, who finished 13th with his lone American starter Crown Pride in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. This 5-year-old has fallen short when facing Grade 1 talent overseas and would need to step up his game considerably to overhaul this more accomplished group of sprinters.
10-Mullikin (7-2): is one of those rare colts that has performed equally well at both six and seven furlongs for conditioner Rodolphe Brisset. This talented son of Violence has won four straight, including a convincing 5 ¾-length score in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga on August 24, where he earned a strong (105) Beyer figure. He’s continued to train sharply since that winning performance at his home base in Keeneland and arrives in Southern California as one of the top betting choices. Prat lands here and seemingly had some other choices.
11-Skelly (8-1): is an accomplished and seasoned 5-year-old gelding who has finished first or second in a remarkable 17 of 18 career tries for trainer Steve Asmussen. He has racked up eight triple-digit Beyers throughout his racing career, and according to the TimeformUS pace projector, he may be the fastest out of the gate of this talented field of sprinters. He finished second in his lone Grade 1 attempt in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga two-back, proving he’s classy enough to run with this gifted group.
Breeders’ Cup Mile - Barry Faulkner
This is a cracking renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Mile, with cases to be made for several in the lineup.
1)RAMATUELLE (KY): Justify – Raven’s Lady (Ravens Pass)
Christopher Head / Aurelien Lemaitre
Legendary mare Goldikova needs little introduction to fans of the Breeders’ Cup. She took this division three times (2008 – 2010), and then was beaten by just a nose and a length into 3rd, when trying to add a fourth success in 2011. In advance of all those runs, she had her final prep in the Prix De La Foret G1, at Longchamp at the beginning of October. Goldikova was trained by Freddie Head, and this year his son Christopher is bringing Ramutuelle to the party, having won the same race last time out - and what a performance it was. Going seven furlongs against a strong group, she tracked the pace to halfway, and although having to switch to get a run, simply flew in the closing stages. At the line she had put 3 lengths between herself and her nearest pursuer Kinross, the favourite, and a previous winner of the Foret. The going was pretty soft there, which may have had an effect, and earlier in the year she had finished behind Porta Fortuna a couple of times but that run last time spoke of a filly reaching the peak of her powers. Drawn inside, she will need luck in running, but I think this daughter of Justify can take this.
2)CHILI FLAG (FR): Cityscape – Flag Day (Pivotal)
Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr
Chili Flag won the Just A Game G1 at Saratoga in July with a gutsy ½ a length score. She then disappointed in the Diana G1 in July but put up a much better effort in the First Lady G1 at Keeneland, finishing 2 length 2nd to Gina Romantica. She could get involved on that form.
3)GEOLYPH (JPN): Drefong – Aromatico (King Kamehameha)
Kimura Tetsuya / Takeshi Yokoyama
Geolyph is one of a numerically strong contingent from Japan this year. He won a G2 at Sapporo in August but has come up short in G1 races in the last couple of years. His most recent win came in April 2022, but that was top level contest.
4)DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (IRE): Frankel – Sweepstake (Acclamation)
Aiden O’Brien / Ryan Moore
Diego Velazquez has won his two latest races after being cut back in trip, following a couple of disappointing effort over further. In the middle of July, he went nine furlongs in a G3 at Leopardstown, where he was untroubled to win by 7 lengths as 7-10 favourite. He followed up at 9-10 at the same track going a mile in the middle of September in a G2. However, he not yet faced rivals of this calibre going a mile, but the O’Brien / Moore axis cannot be dismissed lightly.
5)GOLIAD (KY): War Front – Choreograph (Dynaformer)
Richard Mandella / Flavien Prat
Defections have enabled Goliad to get a spot in the final field. He has won his last two races, both at Kentucky Downs. However, the record for winners from that track going on to the Breeders’ Cup is not good. His forward-going style should mean he gets an early mention, but probably not too many at the business end of proceedings.
6)NOTABLE SPEECH (GB): Dubawi – Swift Rose (Invincible Spirit)
Charlie Appleby / William Buick
Trainer Charlie Appleby is no stranger to success in the Mile, having taken the last three editions, courtesy of Space Blues, Modern Games and Master of the Seas. Unraced at two, Notable Speech started his career at the end of January this year, winning a trio of modest contests on the synthetic strip at Kempton Park. As a result, he went to post at 16-1 for 2,000 Guineas G1 at Newmarket at the beginning of May. However, with the 4-6 favourite City of Troy hardly lifting a hoof, Notable Speech beat subsequent Irish 2,000 Guineas winner, Rosallion, by 1½ lengths. They reconvened at Royal Ascot in the St. James’s Palace Stakes G1 where Rosallion got his revenge, with Notable Speech 5¾ lengths back in 7th. Notable Speech came back to form to win the Sussex Stakes G1 in August but ran another flat race last time in the Prix Du Moulin de Longchamp G1, although the soft turf may have contributed to that. He is the top-rated contender for this with the racing trade paper in Great Britain and should make a bold bid back on a quick surface.
7)PORTA FORTUNA (IRE): Caravaggio – Too Precious (Holy Roman Empire)
Donnacha O’Brien / Tom Marquand
It is difficult not to love Porta Fortuna. She won four of her seven starts in a busy juvenile season, including the Cheveley Park Stakes G1 at Newmarket, going six furlongs in October last year. After that, she shipped to Santa Anita where she ran a blinder to finish ½ a length 2nd to Hard to Justify in the Juvenile Fillies Turf G1. Her first start this year, saw her finish a neck 2nd in the 1,000 Guineas, a short head in front of Ramatuelle in 3rd. However, she has won all her three starts since, the Coronation Stakes G1 at Royal Ascot; the Falmouth Stakes G1 at Newmarket, and the Matron G1 at Leopardstown. If there was a fillies soccer team, this consistently classy (and gutsy) performer would be the first name on the teamsheet.
8)MORE THAN LOOKS (KY): More Than Ready – Ladies Privilege (Harlan’s Holiday)
Cherie DeVaux / Jose Ortiz
More Than Looks is interesting and at a decent price, too. He was only beaten a couple of lengths in this event last year, although that bought him no better than a 6th place finish. He did not make his first start in 2024 until August when he chased home Carl Spackler in the Fourstardave G1 at Saratoga. He tossed his head at start there and, after being worked on early, failed to settle, moving wide round the first turn. In the end he probably did well to finish 2nd, beaten 3½ lengths. They met again in the Turf Mile G1 at Keeneland, when he was again a little tardily away, but he ran on strongly late and was just a length behind Carl Spackler in 2nd on that occasion. With the likelihood of a stronger pace here, which should suit him perfectly, I think he is a live contender,
9)JOHANNES (KY): Nyquist – Cuyathy (Congrats)
Tim Yakteen / Umberto Rispoli
Johannes arrives here trying to complete a five-timer. Three of his wins came at this trip at Santa Anita but he does have one win here, the Eddie Read G2 going nine furlongs at the end of July. He warmed up for this by winning the City of Hope Mile G2 at the end of September. However, I am not sure he has been beating much out West and this squad will set him his sternest test so far.
10)WIN FOR THE MONEY (KY): Mohaymen – Mayakoba (War Chant)
Mark Casse / Patrick Husbands
Win for the Money pulled a rabbit out of the hat when winning the Woodbine Mile G1 in the middle of September. If he can repeat that effort, he could get involved, but that may be a very big if.
11)TEN HAPPY ROSE (JPN): Epiphaneia – Fatal Rose (Tanino Gimlet)
Daisuke Takayanagi / Akhide Tsumura
Ten Happy Rose has won one of her four starts this year, when she was a complete boil over in the betting. It was a G1, but her 207-1 price indicates the freakish nature of the result, and she finished in midfield in her three other races in a lower grade in 2024.
12)CARL SPACKLER (IRE): Lope De Vega – Zindaya (More Than Ready)
Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione
Carl Spackler had a decent first season as a three-year-old last year, winning three of his five starts, including the Hall of Fame G2 at Saratoga. However, other than one glitch in July, he has blossomed this year into a very useful performer, winning the Fourstardave G1, back at the Spa in August, followed by the Turf Mile G1 at Keeneland at the beginning of October. He has plenty of pace and should be in the vanguard early, but his outside post means he will have to use his tactical speed early. How much energy he expends to get a position will probably be the deciding factor. It entirely feasible that he could go all the way, like he did last time, but he faces a formidable European challenge in addition to the local opposition.
Selection: 1st 1. RAMATUELLE 2nd 7. Porta Fortuna, 3rd 8. More Than Looks
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile - Edison Hatter
Several hours after the 2024 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic is run, the Big Ass Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile will be the final Championship race of the year at Del Mar. Last year’s Big Ass Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita saw an incredible effort from the favorite, CODY’S WISH, as he put a stamp on his Horse of the Year campaign and delivered the Dorman family one last heroic victory. This year’s edition of the race is set to go to post on Saturday, November 2 at 8:25 pm EDT (5:25 pm PDT) with 14 contenders as the 12th and final race on the card. Let’s look at this year’s field horse-by-horse and provide some final picks and betting thoughts.
#1 SAUDI CROWN (5-1) returns to the Breeders’ Cup a year after he tired to finish tenth after attending to the early pace in the Classic. SAUDI CROWN started the year with a front running score at the Fairgrounds and was narrowly caught late to finish third in the $20 million Saudi Cup. He struggled late in the Godolphin Mile at Meydan two starts ago but rebounded with a nice front-end score at the mile distance at Ellis Park in August. SAUDI CROWN has worked at Churchill Downs back-to-back weeks in late October in prep for this start, with jockey Florent Geroux indicating that his recent workout was “great” and “a good sign going into [this] race”.
#2 T O SAINT DENIS (30-1) gained some attention two starts ago when he was a strong second at a big number in the Alysheba at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby weekend in his only other start in the United States. His twelve starts in the last two seasons have all come at over a mile, so he’ll be trying a shorter distance here. He showed a lot of early speed in the Alysheba and could be a pace factor in this one. T O SAINT DENIS hasn’t been seen since late August when he was a well-beaten last in a Stakes race in Japan. He worked over the Del Mar surface last week in preparation for this start.
#3 FULL SERRANO (15-1) has had a pair of starts in the United States, and they both happened to come at Del Mar. His first start was at the mile distance in an Optional Claiming event where he dueled on the lead through a :44.94 opening half mile, but was still able to put the rest of the field away pretty comfortably in the stretch. He backed that effort up with a very solid second place effort to MIXTO in the 2024 Pacific Classic in a race where he once again showed plenty of early pace and led every step of the way until the final strides. He’ll need a few things to go his way in a race that appears to have plenty of other early speed signed on, but he could be a serious contender at a price in this race.
#4 KATONAH (30-1) returned off an over year-long layoff back in July in the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar. He was close to the pace throughout and was able to finish second at a big price in the 5-horse field to DR. VENKMAN. Since then, he’s taken on two tough class tests in the Pacific Classic and the California Crown. He was wide and never really involved in the Pacific Classic and tired to be well beaten after attending the early pace in the California Crown. He would have to take a pretty significant step forward to contend in this spot.
#5 THREE TECHNIQUE (30-1) gave it a try in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint last year, but wasn’t able to make much of an impression in the race while finishing an even eighth in the end. His three Stakes tries at the mile distance in the last year have come with varying results. In the Cigar Mile last December, THREE TECHNIQUE was able to finish fourth in the end but did so by passing tired rivals late and was still beaten by over eight lengths. His first start of this year came in the Churchill Downs Stakes on Kentucky Derby weekend, and he just wasn’t able to get involved while wide from an outside post in that effort. Most recently, however, he was a winner in the four-horse field edition of the Ack Ack as he relaxed off of the early pace battle between all three of his other rivals and was able to power past them all late and draw clear. He should have some confidence from that effort coming into this race, but he certainly won’t be able to get that perfect setup again in this 14-horse field.
#6 SEIZE THE GRAY (10-1) has won five of his thirteen career starts and has banked over $2.4 million in his career so far, winning the Pat Day Mile, the Preakness, and the Pennsylvania Derby along the way this year. It’s a resume that surely could have seen him in line to start in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but trainer D. Wayne Lukas and the connections opted for this start in the Dirt Mile instead. Lukas indicated he thinks his colt may be more tactically fit for this race, and it’s tough to argue that point considering the effort in the Pat Day Mile. SEIZE THE GRAY sat off the pace, battled gamely in the stretch, split foes when a large gap opened, and was able to get up in the end. This is a race that could ultimately set up very similarly for him, which will make him the top player here at 10-1 on the morning line.
#7 TUMBARUMBA (30-1) has taken a strong liking to the mile distance as he’s picked up three seconds and a win in his last four Stakes starts at the distance. He’s been able to show tactical speed in most of his races, but the biggest knock on him here is the class test he’ll be facing against this group. He finished second in a four-horse field last time out in the Ack Ack and was the best of the three that engaged in the pace battle around the track. THREE TECHNIQUE had the advantage of sitting off the early pace battle and powering past the trio late. While the surface and distance are in TUMBARUMBA’s favor, he’ll have to take a big step forward in this class test to contend.
#8 POST TIME (12-1) returned back to Maryland with authority last time out as he won by 11.5 lengths as the 1-20 favorite in a five-horse Stakes field. His prior starts this year have included Stakes tries in the General George (won), Carter (won), Westchester (second), Met Mile (second), and Whitney (third). He’s compiled a strong Stakes resume so far this season leading up to this start, and he was particularly good at the mile distance in the Met Mile while finishing a distant second to NATIONAL TREASURE, who theoretically would have been one of the favorites in this field if he had entered. He should be in for a pretty good trip from off of the pace, and it’s hard to knock a horse who’s won nine of thirteen and has never been worse than third in his career. He’s just on the outside looking in when it comes to my selections in this race.
#9 DOMESTIC PRODUCT (7-2) comes into the race with a strong resume for trainer Chad Brown and assumes the role of the morning-line favorite here. He’s broken the triple-digit threshold of Beyer figures in his last two starts, both of which have been wins. Two back, he sat off the pace in the Dwyer and pounced late to draw clear and win by over seven lengths as the 3-5 favorite. Last time out, he got away last but steadily rallied to get up over PRINCE OF MONACO and BOOK’EM DANNO in the Grade I H. Allen Jerkens at Saratoga. The strong class from the Jerkens combined with the versatile race styles shown in his last two make him a worthy morning-line favorite, but this big 14-horse field where anything can happen isn’t the time to take too short of a price on anyone.
#10 MUTH (9-2) will look to deliver trainer Bob Baffert his first victory in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. MUTH has earned over $1.5 million with five wins from just eight lifetime starts and he was a strong second to Breeders’ Cup Classic Contender FIERCENESS in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He possesses plenty of early speed and races well from close to the pace. Three starts ago, he was able to carry his speed over nine furlongs in the Arkansas Derby. Still, he was particularly disappointing last time in the California Crown over the same distance. Baffert indicated after the race that the horse didn’t fire. There’s enough concern to me out of the race to take a stand against him here, but if you’re willing to forgive the try last time out and believe that getting back to a mile could do him some good, he could be the one for you.
#11 CAGLIOSTRO (30-1) is the third horse to come out of the four-horse Ack Ack field into this race. He was the 4-5 favorite in the Ack Ack, but he was another of those tangled up in the three-way speed battle early and faded to be disappointing third in the end. CAGLIOSTRO finished fourth two back in the Forego despite a stumbling start, but was well-beaten by nine lengths in the end. The highlight of his season was three starts ago in the Hanshin Stakes at Churchill Downs, where he was a winner over TUMBARUMBA. However, as the Beyer figure progression shows, he seems to have regressed a bit in his last few starts. He’s one of several in here who would need to take a major step forward to contend in this one.
#12 MUFASA (12-1) came to the United States early this Summer off of a 8-for-10 lifetime record in Chile over the past few seasons. He’s picked up a pair of wins so far in his three starts here in the United States, including a Graded win in the Vosburgh last time out. He’s attended to the early pace in each of his last two races and drawn off in the stretch in both to win comfortably. MUFASA has shown solid progress in his last two starts and will look to take another step forward as he moves from seven furlongs out to a mile in this race. He has plenty of longer-distance tries in Chile, so the distance shouldn’t be too much of an issue. The issue you’ll have to tackle if you want to bet him here is how his class matches up against this group and if he can take the necessary step forward to contend.
#13 PIPELINE (30-1) represents a second chance for trainer Cherie DeVaux in this field. This one is likely to be one of the largest prices in this field as he was well-beaten in both of his two graded Stakes tries in the last year in the Cigar Mile and the Alysheba. PIPELINE picked up a strong front-running win last time out at Churchill Downs, but that was against a much easier group than this. He was a piece of the early pace two years ago in this race at Keeneland but ultimately finished ninth. He finished third behind CODY’S WISH two years ago in the Forego at Saratoga while earning a 105 Beyer speed figure and would somehow have to revert back to that form in this spot to pull off the shocker potentially. If anything, look for him to be one of many in here who could potentially inject the early pace into the race.
#14 SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING (4-1) has been spectacular this year after being pulled up in his first start of the year in the Pegasus World Cup. He’s earned nearly $1.5 million in the six starts since and has Grade II wins in the Charles Town Classic and the Oaklawn Handicap. He has plenty of early natural speed and has done his racing in his career essentially exclusively near or on the lead. Post 14 is obviously not an ideal draw regardless, especially for a horse that wants to be near the lead in a race with a lot of other early speed signed on. However, It should be noted that SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING overcame outside posts in both of his Grade II wins this season. Nonetheless, I was prepared to stand against him in a large field, especially now from this post.
FINAL THOUGHTS: #6 SEIZE THE GRAY (10-1) has been ultra-impressive at his best this year, and this distance and the race setup should prime him to once again deliver his best in a big-money race. #3 FULL SERRANO (15-1) shouldn’t be ignored at a price and can potentially be in the mix late. Of the shorter prices in the race, the morning-line favorite, #9 DOMESTIC PRODUCT (7-2), is worth including on tickets as he’s taken big steps forward in his last two starts and was particularly impressive two back at this mile distance in the Dwyer. Of the huge prices in the race, #2 T O SAINT DENIS (30-1) could be worth including on the bottom of superfecta tickets simply on the hope that the trip back across the Pacific Ocean will lead him to finding something in the United States as he did in the Alysheba.