Breeders' Cup Horse by Horse Analysis
Friday Races
The ITM Crew has delivered! We have written commentary on every Breeders’ Cup runner this year.
We can’t thank our 14 contributors enough! Each has a slightly different approach and style to their analysis, which is by design.
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Juvenile Turf Sprint - Bill Duncliffe
If we’re going to look to recent turf sprint win profiles at Del Mar, the meet this past summer saw 42 such 5 furlong dashes for the cash at the seaside oval. In the early part of the meet if one was not on the lead or stalking the lead there was little hope of crossing the finish line first. Toward the end of the meet, oddly - and seemingly completely unrelated to rail settings on the turf course - closers, even deep closers, began to take down more than their fair share of the winner’s purse. So, we can’t find any definitive clues there.
Let’s look at the history of the race itself to see if we can find any clues to potential winning profiles. The first Juvenile Turf Sprint in Breeders Cup history was run at Churchill Downs in 2018. In its 6 runnings to date, only Mischief Magic at Keeneland in 2022 was able to essay victory via closing from behind. The other 5 winners were all on the lead almost immediately.
The previously mentioned Mischief Magic was also the longest priced winner of this event, returning nearly $17 for each $2 wagered. Twilight Gleaming was the second longest price, going off at 5-1. The other winners went off at anywhere from 4/5 to 4 to 1. So, the juvenile edition of the mad dash on the grass has not been the most obvious of events to land a big score.
At the Del Mar distance of 5 furlongs, the suspicion here is that the winner can’t be more than 3 or 4 lengths off the lead at the first call. Let’s take a look at the field, in post position order.
Out on Bail (20-1)
NY bred typically races closer to pace than last out Indian Summer at Keeneland. Has chased Governor Sam home last two efforts. Think he’s a cut below others in here.
Aesterius (9/2)
Raise a glass for the last out winner of the Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes, battling it out with Big Mojo. Winner of 4 out of 6, all at today’s 5 furlong distance. Archie Watson trainee is no jughead. He has traded blows last out and three back with foe to his immediate right in the starting gate. Think he’s a better finisher than that foe. European “speed”sometimes hard to translate to U.S. but think this one should be prominent throughout.
Big Mojo (4/1)
Battled Aesterius to the wire in the last but has just one win under his belt vs. Aesterius’ 4 victories. The lone win in the Molecomb Stakes was secured at 25-1. Austin Powers hunch bet?
Magnum Force (15-1)
3rd straight starter in the gate out of the Flying Childers last out. The winning profile in this race seems to prefer on or near the lead but this horse has shown the ability to navigate patiently through traffic.
Arizona Blaze (15-1)
8 time starting 2YO has only failed to hit the board once but has not yet shown the ability to finish in front of either Whistlejacket or Shareholder.
Jet Sweep Joe (30-1)
A U.S. 2-year-old with 6 career starts to date? Did trainer Paul Macentee not get the memo? Finished well behind Governor Sam and Chasing Liberty in last out Indian Summer at Keeneland. Gave Governor Sam all he could handle in Monmouth’s Tyro but felt like the Governor always had the measure of this one there.
Whistlejacket (5-1)
May be the toughest read in the field. 7 time starting 2YO with 3 wins and 3 seconds was eclipsed by Shadow of Light last out on the downhill Newmarket 6F course. Did he just not care for the conditions that day or is this Peter Brant runner better against slightly less? A prize to those who guess correctly!
Ecoro Sieg (7/2)
Kentucky-bred, but Japanese-owned, trained by the highly regarded Hideyuki Mori. Broke a 23 year old record for the about 6F distance in Japan by a 2YO. On the same card, a 4YO ran the same time in an allowance victory. Like the best ones, doesn’t appear to be going really fast when going really fast. Has that natural speed but does not necessarily appear to be a need the lead type.
Shareholder (12-1)
Seemed all out to hold on late in the 5F Norfolk at Ascot. Then was all done in the Sumbe Prix Morny at Deaville, well behind winning Whistlejacket. Doesn’t give the sense that this shareholder can take stock of this field.
Governor Sam (12-1)
Winner of 4 straight with tactical speed could play well here. Winner on the lead and sitting just off the lead. Jockey Paco Lopez, one BC win to his credit, Roy H in the 2018 Sprint, got career win number 4,000 in tenacious effort on the lead by this one in the Indian Summer at Keeneland.
Gate to Wire (30-1)
Despite the name, Pletcher charge has shown affinity for stalking the pace, which is not a bad profile for this race and especially for this course. That being said, feels like he’s a cut below others in here.
Ides of March (8/1)
Timeform ratings have increased each time out. I wonder if the 7F effort at the Curragh in July sets this one up for a race that is going to require stamina to go along with speed.
Selections
Ecoro Sieg - Am persuaded by the easy way of going this exceptionally fast horse shows. Needs to break from the gate well. Think Japan kicks off this year’s Cup with a winner.
Ides of March - Has carried the highest weights and run further at speed than any of the others in field. Post is a challenge.
Governor Sam - U.S. representative, should be able to lay close to the pace today.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies - Jackson Muniz
Unsurprisingly, I found this year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies to be an intriguing race as a fan and a bettor. The American contingent has yet to sort themselves out, and the two-year-old champ title will be decided by the winner of this race. They’ll square off against a formidable duo of Japanese runners that absolutely should not be overlooked. It should be a fairly run race as it appears the pace will be honest enough, and the field isn’t overflowing, so traffic isn’t likely to be an issue. Furthermore, I’d be surprised if we have an overwhelming favorite in this year’s edition, so you should get a fair price no matter who you like!! Special shout-out to Alex Henry for her expertise on the Japanese runners, as I would be clueless about those horses without her help! Let’s meet the field.
#1 Vodka With a Twist (20-1)
I’ve seen worse longshots than Vodka With a Twist, though the rail draw really only leaves her with one option, which is full send to the front. Her resume as a whole isn’t impossible in this spot, as I thought she had back-to-back suboptimal trips at Del Mar. Two back, she broke well, but was wrestled back off the pace behind a loose leader that was a giant favorite. Yet, she tried hard all the way to the wire and wasn’t disgraced to finish second, beaten a little more than a length. Then, last time, she stalked a hot pace, made the first move into the hot pace, looked dead in the water at the eighth pole, and fought back all the way to the finish to lose by a nose. Solid effort, and I love that they’ve given her plenty of time to prepare for this big race.
The downside is she really hasn’t progressed at all on speed figures and she’s more exposed than most in this field. I question the quality of competition she’s been going up against, especially after Tenma came back to be well-beaten in the Chandelier stakes by a couple of today’s rivals that won’t even be favored here. She also must prove she can go two turns as she’s definitely a question mark over a route of ground. There are some things to like, but she’s more of a use underneath.
#2 Snowyte (15-1)
Based on her first couple of starts, this Good Magic filly will be one of the bigger prices in this race. She ran pretty well in her debut at Saratoga when she finished a strong second between today’s rivals Quickick and Scottish Lassie. I would upgrade that race further since Danny Gargan was ice-cold that entire meet, and Snowyte ran well despite that. While she was on the lead in her debut, I liked that she showed a new dimension in start number two, when she came from well off the pace to finish second in the Frizette. I also like that she’s paired up Beyer tops, and the pedigree strongly indicates she should appreciate two turns. The bad news is she was well-beaten by today’s rival Scottish Lassie in that race, and it was not a very strong edition of the Frizette. She also needs to get much faster to be competitive, she needs to improve by at least 15 points to get in the mix and perhaps even a few points more than that. I find that scenario unlikely, and won’t be using her on my tickets.
#3 Immersive (3-1)
With Scottish Lassie drawn way on the outside, I think there’s a good chance this will be your favorite at post-time. Immersive hasn’t done anything wrong in any of her three starts. She’s an undefeated, multiple Grade 1 winner with victories at both Saratoga and Keeneland. While she’s not super flashy, you simply can’t knock her for beating whoever shows up and getting the job done every time. While I would argue that she’s been fortunate to have consecutive soft trips in her victories, she also deserves credit for having the tactical speed to put herself in those situations, an asset that should prove quite useful on Friday. Finally, Brad Cox is operating on another planet right now in stakes races, and you have to respect everything that comes out of his barn.
With all that being said, I feel like I can poke holes in her resume. I’ve been on the record since this summer saying that I felt the two-year-old filly crop at Saratoga this year was very weak(outside of Senza Parole, who is not running). It’s quite possible she was simply the best of a bad bunch, and that bunch followed her to Kentucky when she beat New York-based rivals in the Alcibiades. Sticking with that Keeneland race, she could not have had a softer trip there. It was a speed-biased race track, and she got a perfect stalking trip in the clear behind two dueling longshots. I personally felt like that was a race she was supposed to win by open lengths, yet she had to grind away to the wire for the victory. I also don’t like that she doesn’t have any speed figure edge over the American rivals, and I could argue she’s much slower than the Japanese horse. As a horse likely to be your favorite, that’s a huge concern for me and would compel me to look elsewhere to find the winner.
#4 La Cara (12-1)
La Cara is the horse that is most puzzling to me in this race. If you look strictly at Timeform figures, she owns the fastest race in the field (American), which came two back at Saratoga when she ran them off their feet going seven furlongs (beating Quickick handily). But then she came back down to Earth at Churchill Downs when she won a stakes race but regressed 15 points, and Beyer agrees with that regression. Maybe she’s just a better horse on the lead since that’s where her fastest races have come from, but I do want to give her credit for showing that new dimension at Churchill and still getting the job done. I would think they will try to get her back to the front end in today’s race, but I have a tough time envisioning her clearing this field. There are some things to like, but she’s not for me.
#5 Quickick (10-1)
I think Quickick is an intriguing runner at what should be a generous price. She’s done nothing wrong in her three starts and isn’t too far behind the top choices on speed figures. She got a useful race in her debut when she closed from way out of it to finish a respectable third behind La Cara. She then returned to Saratoga in another maiden race. She was much more tactical when she came from midpack and won going away while defeating a few of today’s rivals. Then, last time at Keeneland, she ran against a speed-biased track and did really well to get within a couple of lengths of today’s rival, Immersive. The negative from that race is that she had every opportunity to go by Immersive in the stretch, and she couldn’t do it. She also never had traffic at any point in the race, which is more of a credit to Dylan Davis, but can she be as effective in this bigger field if she’s not in the clear throughout? That’s what we’re going to find out on Friday! Is she one of the more likely winners of this race? No, definitely not, but I do think 10-1 is a fair price since this pace has the potential to really heat up for her.
#6 Otomena Sacho (20-1)
The “other” Japanese filly might just be the longest shot on the board at post-time. She was beaten seven lengths in Japan by American Bikini, and that runner isn’t expected to be one of the two favorites, so it’s difficult to envision Otomena Sacho being any shorter than 20-1. She’s only raced up to six furlongs in her career, so she must deal with added ground (pedigree suggests it should be fine), and she won’t make the lead in this race, and that’s how she achieved her only victory when she was 1/9. I do like that she’s won around a left-handed course, and while she hasn’t won coming from off the pace, she hit the board in both races. Again it might not be a perfect translation, but her speed figures give her a decent look against the Americans. The problem is she must deal with the fellow invader, and that seems to be a tall order. Her best hope is probably finding herself near the back-of-the-pack down the backside and that the race falls apart.
#7 Non Compliant (9/2)
I’m a biased when it comes to #7 Non Compliant because I’ve been looking forward to her running since before her debut. She worked in company with BC Juvenile contender Gaming before her first race and arguably looked better than that foe. That was enough for me to back her and I’ve been rewarded in both of her first two races that she’s won rather comfortably. She won her debut against a decent field, and I like that she did it from well off the pace-a rare occurrence in a Baffert debut victory. But then she came right back in the Oak Leaf and did the same thing, this time winning despite a loose leader and a very wide trip. I love that she has basically paired up Beyer tops, indicating she could move forward in a big way instart number three, and those figures she’s already earned put her right in the hunt against this group. She has the advantage of a victory over this racetrack and she’s already proven around two turns. She also has the benefit of a stablemate that is probably just a rabbit that is entered to ensure this gal gets some pace to run at. There are plenty of things to like about her in this race, and I’d definitely be interested if this morning line holds up.
#8 Nooni (15-1)
Nooni was sensational in her first two races, winning by open lengths with rock-solid speed figures. However, she’s struggled to progress as the distances have increased and the competition has gotten stronger. Two back, she was off the board in the Del Mar Debutante after dueling between rivals and setting a suicidal pace in that race. I can be forgiving of that effort, but last time, she really had no excuse in the Oak Leaf, where she cruised on the front end and was still run down by the stablemate. She must find a way to turn the tables and that rival, and she’ll have to do it while facing much more pace pressure. While I don’t think she can win, she will have an integral part in ensuring an honest pace for her stablemate, and I’m not going to be surprised when she has a big 2025 campaign around one turn.
#9 American Bikini (5-1)
This Japanese invader is a serious threat to win this thing. It’s not exactly apples-to-apples converting Japanese figures to the American Beyer scale, BUT she does have two figures that are faster than anything the rest of this field has done up to this point. I’m more willing to trust that information since she’s done it twice, it’s less likely to be an outlier. So right away, I believe this filly is worthy of a long look as the “fastest” horse in the race. She’s also picked the right year to make the trip, as the American contingent doesn't seem particularly strong, and she’s already defeated the other Japanese horse in the field by open lengths.
She’s already won at seven furlongs, and the pedigree indicates she might appreciate more ground. I also like that she’s already won going left-handed, as I’ve always thought that this can be a concern for foreign horses coming to America. This filly is quick out of the gate and usually finds herself right on the pace, which could be the biggest downside to this runner. There are a couple of others in this field that I’m expecting to be fully committed to making the lead, so she must prove she can stalk the pace and still finish. I was writing this before the post positions were drawn, and I noted that an outside draw would probably be ideal for this horse since it could make it easier for her to rate if necessary. That’s especially true since she’s a big filly who could have trouble stopping and starting if she had to deal with traffic. I view her as a major win contender and is easily the field's value if you can get 5-1.
#10 Scottish Lassie (5/2)
I was a bit surprised to see #10 Scottish Lassie (5/2) is your morning line favorite in this year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. But I can definitely see why she is a major contender in this spot. On the Beyer scale, she has the best speed figure in this race by a comfortable margin for her victory in the Frizette. And there were plenty of dirt races to solidify the figure she earned that day, the major question I have is can she repeat it? She had a VERY soft trip against a very weak group (maidens finished 1-2), and I usually try to beat horses that earn monster figures under ideal circumstances, especially when they’re a short price. She’s unlikely to get as easy of a journey in Friday’s race, though I do think this outside draw is ideal for her. She also must prove she can win around two turns, something most of the other major contenders have already done. If you’re a believer, she’s tactical enough to put herself into the race, and she’s still got plenty of upside since this is just her third career start. Trainer Jorge Abreu finds himself in a familiar spot as he brought Jody’s Pride to this race last year under very similar circumstances, and she ran a fine second at a price.
The Verdict: 9-7-5
I’m against the two favorites in this race and given the morning line odds, #9 American Bikini (5-1) would be my top pick. I love the outside draw that’ll allow her to use her speed to clear this field, or press the pace in the clear. And if the speed figures are correct, she has a massive edge in that department as well. 5-1 on a filly with the best figures and plenty of speed? Sign me up all day. I am also interested in #7 Non Compliant (9/2). She seems about the same as the other two Americans that won their final preps, but figures to be a much better price. Finally, #5 Quickick is another that could provide value at a price. She needs some help up front, but I expect her to run on through the lane.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf - Peter Thomas Fornatale
An interesting renewal of a race that the US have largely dominated despite the common belief that European runners have the edge on turf. North American trainers have won the Juvenile Fillies Turf a staggering nine times in the last decade, although Europe has rarely sent a runner as good as Lake Victoria appears to be. Will she get the win? Let’s have a look at the field to find the answer.
#1 LAKE VICTORIA
Ryan Moore / Aidan O’Brien
Simply looks a top-class filly. Arguably the champion 2-year-old filly in Europe, she brings a level of form into this race that is rarely seen by virtue of her dominant win in the Cheveley Park Stakes last time out. That was over 6 furlongs, but she shapes as though a mile should be well within her range. She is tactically versatile, which is another positive, although she is yet to race around a bend and, as a result, stall 1 is probably a slight negative for a horse that can start slowly. Still, clearly the one to beat.
#2 NITROGEN
Jose Ortiz / Mark Casse
Candian runner scrapes into the field following some defections and brings Grade 1 form to the table having been place in the Natalma last time out. The 78 Beyer looks a tad inflated to me there, as numbers often are at Woodbine, and I would imagine she will be competing for minor honours again here. Casse plotted a similar course to victory with Catch A Glimpse in 2015.
#3 CORRETO
Jose Ruiz / Graham Motion
Another to draw in, she was third in the Miss Grillo last time out without any apparent excuse. While that race is a top trial for the JFT, I don’t see her making the required improvement to figure here.
#4 SCYTHIAN
Junior Alvarado / Bill Mott
Daughter of Tiz The Law has yet to taste defeat on turf. Having won her maiden in workmanlike fashion, she stepped up big time out in the Miss Grillo. She had some fortune there as the front-runner ran off the bend, taking out two rivals including one of the market leaders, but you couldn’t fail to be impressed with how Scythian stormed clear to win in a fast time. The Miss Grillo is typically the best US trial for the JFT so she warrants plenty of respect for a top trainer. Nicely drawn to attain a stalking position.
#5 TOTALLY JUSTIFIED
Manny Franco / George Arnold
Split May Day Ready and Destino D’Oro in the Jessamine last time having raced closer to the pace than that pair. She found a decent kick mid-stretch but couldn’t hold off the closers late on. She did best of those that raced up with the pace, but she looks a shade short of the required level to me. Has some good tactical speed, however, and sire Justify had the winner last year.
#6 VIRGIN COLADA
Flavien Prat / Chad Brown
Warrants huge respect as Chad’s only runner in a race he has dominated and won last year. Finished behind Totally Justified two back and was no match for Scythian in the Miss Grillo last time out but was against the flow there and made up some nice group. Might get more pace to run at, although not sure this track will really play to her strengths compared to the more galloping Aqueduct last time.
#7 THOUGHT PROCESS
Hector Barrios / Philip D’Amato
Is another filly who is unbeaten in three turf starts, winning by wide margins each time having shaped with promise sprinting on dirt on debut. Crucially, all three of those victories came in California and two came over the JFT course and distance, and that track craft around this sharp track should not be underestimated, particularly as some of the best European runners have been running exclusively on straight, galloping tracks. There’s more to her than just home advantage, however, as the numbers she has been running are legitimately impressive, most recently smashing the clock with an 86 Beyer despite barely coming out of second gear. This looks a serious filly and a genuine threat to the best Europeans. I love her draw to get a nice stalking position in the two-path and she’ll be hard to keep out of the frame. Even after the draw, I am seeing some 8-1 around, and the US Morning Line price is 5-2! Big each-way thievery possibilities here as well at those numbers.
#8 HEAVENS GATE
Wayne Lordan / Aidan O’Brien
One of the more experienced runners in the field, and that track craft may prove useful here. She has been doing her running over shorter, and I’m not sure she wants to go this far. Held up out of a headwind last time out, which I think flattered her, and I’m not sure her form is up to the level required here.
#9 KILWIN
Juan Lezcano / George Arnold
Deep closer who is unbeaten in two starts and took a well-contested minor Stakes at Kentucky Downs last time. That form is a bit of a mixed bag but the third and fourth have come out and filed the first two spots in the Grade 3 Matron since. She benefitted from a sharp early pace that day but was doing all of her best work late on, strongly suggesting the mile will see her improve on the 73 Beyer she ran there. Claims of hitting the board if she gets a good setup.
#10 ABIENTOT
Dylan Davis / Mark Casse
Another late runner, she wasn’t far behind Kilwin at Kentucky Downs in the Untapable and improved on that form to win the Matron on her most recent start, coming with a storming late run down the outside. Shapes as though a mile may suit with milers in her pedigree and another that could feature in exotics.
#11 FIERY LUCY
Gary Carroll / Gavin Cromwell
Has twice finished behind Heavens Gate, including last time in the Weld Stakes. Like that rival, she had a good trip out of the breeze, and I don’t really think she got home two back over a mile at the Curragh. Difficult draw and hard to fancy.
#12 MAY DAY READY
Frankie Dettori / Joseph Lee
Improving filly got the best of a three-way photo in the Jessamine to make it 3 from 3 in her career. She had a good trip around there and seemed like a straightforward and professional conveyance and the 73 Beyer she ran there represents a career best. I’m not sure that was a strong renewal of that Grade 2, though, and stall 12 will require all Dettori’s talents to overcome.
#13 VIXEN
Is the third runner for Mark Casse and represents the Canadian form as you would expect. She was only just denied in the Natalma last time out and that form ties in OK with the Jessamine on a line through Italian Soiree. I do think the Beyer was a tad high there but not to the extent that is rules her out and the front three pulled well clear in that contest. Stall 13 looks tricky, however, for a horse that races prominently.
#14 ANSHODA
Joel Rosario / David Loughnane
Represents prominent American connections, so was always likely to end up in this spot when she proved she was Stakes class. A winner on debut, she shaped well at Listed level next time out behind a promising sort before scoring at Goodwood on bad ground in a Group 3. Upped to Group 2 level last time in the May Hill, she did not appear to be in the same form, perhaps feeling the effects of a gruelling effort prior and fading tamely out of contention having made the running. She has presumably been freshened up for this, but she has plenty to find on form and I’m not sure the demands of Del Mar will suit this low cadence, galloping filly.
VERDICT: A race in which many can be given a chance and several have potential to produce bigger effort. On what we have seen to date, though, this looks a two-horse race. And as such my main play in the race will be an exacta with #1 LAKE VICTORIA and #7 THOUGHT PROCESS. Lake Victoria is a filly out of the top drawer and the current 1000 Guineas favourite warrants the utmost respect. She has been a little weak in the betting recently, however, and stall 1 asks questions of a horse that has basically been the slowest into stride the last twice. As a result, if forced to make a win choice between the two the call is #7 THOUGHT PROCESS. This currently overpriced filly looks a bit of a machine and has the numbers to back up the visual impression of her victories, having run faster than older horses and stakes class juvenile colts last time despite never coming off the bridle. Well drawn with good gate speed, she has very few negatives over a track we know she loves.
Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile - Eric Solomon
There’s a solid field of 10 assembled for the signature race of the year for two-year-olds. Todd Pletcher has won the last two runnings of this race with Forte and Fierceness, both of which would go on to win Grade 1 races after securing their two-year-old titles in this race. That streak will definitely be snapped this year since Pletcher will not have a starter. However, this race is shaping up to be quite the showdown between the East Coast, West Coast, and Midwestern-based horses. East Avenue, Chancer McPatrick, and Citizen Bull all won the Grade 1 prep races in Kentucky, New York, and California, and they all looked good while doing so. They’re joined by four talented American-based runners and three foreigners looking to claim the glory that Arazi and Johannesburg did in 1991 and 2001.
1: East Avenue (5-2 ML):
Godolphin sends out a very talented son of Medaglia d’Oro, who has been extremely impressive in both career starts for Brendan Walsh. He debuted at the end of the Ellis Park meet, winning his six-furlong contest by eight widening lengths. The pedigree was there for two turns, and he was well-backed when facing the highly touted Ferocious in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last month. Tyler Gaffalione put him on the lead where he was running freely and setting a solid tempo. When they turned for home, he extended his lead, beating a nice field by a little more than five lengths. He’s never been tested in his two races and he’s faced good horses when doing so. Drawing the rail for this race means that unless he blows the break, he’s almost certainly going to be on the front end. Early speed was definitely a positive in dirt routes at Del Mar over the summer. He’s not the only one who wants the lead, but he should be in the driver’s seat. He’s the first foal to race from an unraced dam that is half to Cody’s Wish and Endorsed, so he’s as blue-blooded as they come. He’s already passed the test at this distance, and I see him as the one to beat in this race.
2: Getaway Car (20-1 ML):
He was a winner of the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes on the same day that his stablemate, Gaming, made his debut. He only faced three rivals in that race, and he had a clear pace advantage. He stopped the clock in 1:10:3, which was slightly slower than the 1:10:2 split from Gaming a few races later. He was flat in the Del Mar Futurity, coming up empty after setting a torrid pace. He ran a better race in the American Pharoah, which was his first start at two turns. He stalked the pace set by Citizen Bull, who had an inside position on him. The fractions were moderate for that race, and while Hernandez was going to put token pressure on his stablemate, he wasn’t going to duel him into submission. Getaway Car was second best that day, two lengths behind Citizen Bull. He’s a son of Curlin, so the fact that he was a winner going five furlongs on debut was impressive. His dam was a stakes-placed turf sprinter who won races on turf and dirt but never won a race longer than 5 ½ furlongs. I’m not sure if he’s going to be more effective at one or two turns, but I do see him as a pace factor in this race. Juan Hernandez is an aggressive rider who’s won many races here this year. I think he will make East Avenue work hard, but I think he will be heading in the wrong direction when the real running begins.
3: Hill Road (30-1 ML):
The only European important in this race was bred in the States and sold at the Keeneland September Sale in 2023. He started twice overseas for Adrian Murray, winning impressively on debut at Leopardstown. The second start came in Group 1 company at the Curragh, and he faltered, finishing 7th of 8. He’s bred to be a good two turn dirt horse, which makes the $350K purchase of him a bit interesting. The dam was based in Argentina, winning four of nine races there on the dirt, two of which came at the classic 1 ¼ mile distance. Murray brought two runners to Santa Anita last year for the Breeders’ Cup, sending out Valiant Force in the Juvenile Turf Sprint and Cuban Thunder in the Juvenile on behalf of AMO Racing USA. Just looking at the pedigrees, you’d think it would have been the other way around. Valiant Force closed with a ton of interest to be second, and Cuban Thunder was a well-beaten 7th. Investing in a horse like this shows a commitment to trying to be competitive in North America on some of the biggest stages in the game. Murray probably learned some things last year when shipping horses to the US for the first time, and he has employed Umberto Rispoli, who knows the track well, for both this mount and with Arizona Blaze in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. I have no idea if this horse is going to flourish over the dirt here at Del Mar, and I’m definitely going to be looking at the works and the Clocker’s Reports as they become available. My guess is that he’s going to be a cut below the best in this field, however, if he’s sitting there around 50-1, I’d be thinking about tossing a few dollars his way. Using him underneath in the exotics wouldn’t be the worst idea, either.
4: Ferocious (6-1 ML):
He cost his connections $1,300,000 when he was purchased at the OBS Sale in March of 2024. Clearly, he looked the part in the sales ring to be sold for 37 times the stud fee for his sire, Flatter. He was as good as advertised when winning his debut at Saratoga in the mud, notching a 96 Beyer Speed Figure for his 7 ¾ victory. He came back in the Hopeful, and it looked like he was heading in the wrong direction as they straightened out for the drive in the stretch. He did re-rally when Chancer McPatrick passed him on the outside, making it a close race. He was no match for East Avenue in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. In that race, he broke from the rail and wasn’t quick enough to maintain his inside position. East Avenue was faster early and he pulled away from him with relative ease. Speed was good on the main track at Keeneland, especially in the first part of the fall meet there. However, East Avenue was clearly the better horse on that day. I don’t love how much Luis Saez and Irad Ortiz had to work when riding him in his last two starts. He has a lot of ability, but I’m not sure he’s mentally up to the challenge to win a race like this.
5: Jonathan’s Way (9-2 ML):
He’s another undefeated colt coming into this race with two victories to start his career. His debut win at Saratoga in August this summer impressed me. He was pinched back to last in the early stages of his six-furlong maiden special weight race. He made an impressive middle move and a strong sustained bid to easily beat a few runners that had solid races under their belts. He covered a ton of ground as he was five deep on the turn and way out in the middle of the track. He returned to face a decent field in the Grade 3 Iroquois on September 14th at Churchill. There appeared to be a decent amount of speed signed on for that race on paper, however, Rosario wasn’t messing around, putting this one on the lead from the jump. He set honest fractions and had plenty left for the stretch run, where he maintained a clear advantage over Owen Almighty, who was a stakes winner before running in that race. His 90 Beyer Speed Figure backed up his strong debut figure. The dam’s other runners have done most of their work in one-turn races on lesser circuits, so as the races get longer, his stamina, from a pedigree standpoint, is likely going to be called into question. I think East Avenue drawing the rail and Getaway Car in post 2, means that he will have to win this race with a stalking trip. He did show the ability to adapt to less-than-ideal circumstances in his debut, so I think Rosario will be able to get him to settle anywhere in the field. Whether or not he’s going to have some energy in the stretch after going two turns remains to be seen.
6: Citizen Bull (10-1 ML):
He’s one of three well-meant Baffert horses that is a winner on this oval. He debuted here in August, scoring a 5 ½ furlong sprint race on the main track. Baffert brought him back three weeks later for the Del Mar Futurity, which was a race that was fast early and slow late. Both he and Getaway Car ran significantly better races when trying two turns for the first time in the American Pharoah Stakes last month. This Into Mischief colt used his inside position to take the lead early, which he never surrendered, winning by two lengths. At least three runners to his inside are faster than he has been in the early stages of a race. The pace collapsed in the Del Mar Futurity, and he could not take advantage. He had everything his own way in his two wins, and I’m not convinced he'll adapt when things aren’t going the way he wants them to.
7: Gaming (8-1 ML):
He debuted in August at Del Mar, going gate to wire in a solid 6 ½ furlong maiden special weight contest. Despite being hounded for the first half mile, Juan Hernandez put him on the lead early and never looked back. He returned four weeks later to win the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity coming from off the pace that day. His stablemate, Getaway Car, carved out some ambitious fractions, and he proved he could wait in the wings and come with a late bid. That was a particularly fast race this year, but he was definitely the best horse that day. Baffert bypassed the American Pharoah with him, waiting for this spot to make his two-turn debut. Up to this point, he’s the only horse that Game Winner sired to win on debut in a sprint race. He validated that performance, showing a new dimension when running for the second time. He paired his first two Beyers and has been training like a Baffert runner that will move forward. I’ll wait for the final Clocker’s Report, but I like what I’m seeing going into this race. I think he could be one that sits in the middle of this pack and gets to take a run at the front-runners, who could be cooking early in this one. Of the Baffert trio, he’s the one I like the best. However, he will need to take a big step forward in this race.
8: Shin Believe (10-1 ML):
Hideyuki Mori has a pair of American-bred, Japanese-based colts starting side by side in this race. This Constitution colt debuted on 8/3/24 at Niigata in Japan, where he easily beat 14 other two-year-olds when going 1 ⅛ miles. He has not raced since that effort, shipping to Del Mar to be a part of the Japanese Contingent for this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships. The second and third-place finishers finished third and first, respectively, in a maiden race in Tokyo last weekend. This colt cost $800K at the OBS April Sale this year, so he definitely has looked the part. While I think with the right foundation, he could be a legitimate Derby contender this spring, should that be the avenue his connections opt to pursue. However, after one maiden win in one career start at the beginning of August, I’m not convinced that he will be able to beat a very nice crop of American based two-year-olds.
9: Ecoro Azel (30-1 ML):
The second of two Japanese invaders for trainer Hideyuki Mori is a son of Shancelot, who beat 13 rivals in a front-running debut at Niigata in Japan. He came back at the end of September in a seven-furlong stakes race at Chukyo, where he finished in 5th after breaking near the back of the pack in that race. He’s bred to be a one-turn horse, so the 1 1/16 distance of this range could be outside his range. I needed to see a better effort from him in his last start to think about him as a serious contender in this field.
10: Chancer McPatrick (3-1 ML):
This undefeated son of McKinzie has been nothing short of brilliant in his three career starts this year. He came from last to first on debut at Saratoga in July. That effort was good enough to earn him a spot in the starting gate in the Grade 1 Hopeful at the end of the Saratoga meet. He didn’t have a great start, but Flavien Prat played it cool, and this colt did the rest, getting up in the shadow of the wire for the win. He continued to improve in his third start, earning his second Grade 1 victory when winning the Champagne at Belmont at the Big A. Chad Brown sent Good Magic out to a second-place finish in the Champagne before winning this race in 2017 at Del Mar. This horse should have no trouble adapting to two-turn racing, and he could easily emerge as the best horse in this field moving forward. However, we’ll have to watch closely how this track is playing on dirt on Thursday and earlier in the card on Friday. Horses that came from off the pace struggled in races on the dirt throughout the summer meet at Del Mar. There’s no shortage of early speed in this race, so the pace should be honest enough for a horse like him to have a fighting chance. However, if we see that the track is playing like it did most of the summer, he might be better suited for the bottom of the vertical exotics.
The Verdict: 1-10-3
While it’s not particularly creative, I think East Avenue (#1) is the best runner in this field right now, and he might have the highest ceiling moving forward. He is likely going to go to the front early, and he’ll be tested every step of the way. However, I think that running style has played well here in the recent past. Godolphin has had two winners in this race, scoring with Vale of York in 2009 on the synthetic at Santa Anita and Essential Quality on the dirt at Keeneland in 2020. Brendan Walsh will be looking for his first Breeders’ Cup win with nine starters. He trained Maxfield for Godolphin, who was set to be favored in this race in 2019, but he was forced to defect. This feels like the right spot for redemption.
The table should definitely be set for a closer like Chancer McPatrick (#10), who looks to give Chad Brown his second win in this race. As a two-time Grade 1 winner, he’s already more accomplished than Good Magic, who was the one who gave Brown that win. There’s no secret to his game. He will settle behind the leaders in the early stages of this race and try to make one sustained bid to pass the majority of the field. The 10-hole shouldn’t affect him much, but it may cause him to be further off the pace than he might want to be. If we’re seeing closers have a fair shot on Thursday and earlier in the card on Friday, I’d definitely upgrade him. However, I think he will come up a little bit short in this spot.
A crazy longshot in this race is the European invader, Hill Road (#3). There are a lot of ingredients here that make him an intriguing price play. Unlike many of the European shippers who have tried and failed in this race over the years, he has a pedigree that favors two-turn dirt racing. He has a trainer with an in-the-money finish in a Breeders’ Cup Race that will likely be fine-tuning their preparations based on what they learned from 2023. They’re employing a local rider, who finished 3rd in the rider standings at Del Mar this summer. From a wagering perspective, he’s listed at 30-1 on the morning line and could easily go off at odds longer than that. Between three Baffert horses, two Japanese horses, and four talented shippers coming from the East, he could easily be completely overlooked on the tote board. East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick are two horses that could be special, so I will temper my expectations a bit. However, I see him as one of the more interesting long shots competing on Friday. He’ll be used primarily underneath on my vertical exotics, however, I’ll be putting him in some deeper multi-race wagers and playing a few dollars on him to win.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf - Will Humphrey
Since its inception in 2007, twelve of the seventeen renewals of this one-mile turf event have been won by European-trained juveniles, six of whom were conditioned by Aidan O’Brien and three by Charlie Appleby. Once again, the Euros will be strongly represented in Friday’s contest, although a deep home team and an intriguing Japanese-trained contender won’t let them take another victory with ease. This is truly fascinating edition of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf, so let’s dive into some profiles without further ado.
#1 Satono Carnaval
Noriyuki Hori
Rachel King
20/1
I can’t pretend to be overly sharp when it comes to Japanese racing form, but I’ve found it hard not to have been impressed by what SC has produced in his two runs to date. He destroyed his rivals with an emphatic 7L debut victory at Tokyo racetrack before connections wheeled him back off only three weeks rest, sent him to Hakodate racetrack, cut him back to six furlongs, and threw him in a G3. The distance looked on the sharp side for him that day, but as is often the case with top-quality runners, class prevailed, and he got up to score by 1 1/4L.
The fact that he hasn’t raced since July could be cause for concern, although you have to think that connections wouldn’t be bringing him over if they saw that as an issue, and he’s looked in great shape since arriving at Del Mar last week.
He’s got tactical speed to use from gate one, while both his pedigree and running style strongly suggest that he’ll be suited by this extra distance, and after ITM’s own Klaus Ebner spoke so highly of his chances on this fantastic ITM Japanese contenders podcast recently, it would be brave to disregard him. Both times that the Breeder’s Cup was held at Del Mar, gate one produced the winner of this race, and SC could easily take that record to three-for-three at a big price. It's fun to also see that multiple G1-winning Australian-based rider Rachel King gets the call.
#2 Dream On
Mark Casse
Jose Ortiz
20/1
A progressive son of 2016 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up, Not This Time, DO has thrived since stepping foot onto the turf in career start number two, breaking his maiden convincingly at Ellis Park before hitting the board in two subsequent stakes races at Woodbine.
We last saw him finishing a creditable third behind the re-opposing pair of Al Qudra and New Century in the one-mile Summer S. (G1), where he pressed a hot pace - one that ultimately fell apart - before forging to the lead in deep stretch and only getting caught after drifting out sharply while remaining on his left lead inside the final 1/16.
He left room for improvement in his route debut that day, so there’s a chance that he’ll be able to build on his BSF of 90, and a case could potentially be made for him in this spot. However, both Al Qudra and New Century simply looked better than him last time, and he’ll now need a huge career best if he’s to reverse that form; plus, there’s a whole slew of other talented rivals he’ll have to turn away to win. He’s recently been trading at around 50/1 in overseas markets, and that is probably a fair reflection of his chance. Expect him to be known early and not so much late on.
#3 Noble Confessor
Todd Pletcher
Tyler Gaffalione
15/1
St Elias Stables’ homebred son of Quality Road, Noble Confessor, has been presented with the tough task of breaking his maiden at the Breeder’s Cup. It takes imagination to make a case for him here, but it’s certainly not impossible.
Always highly regarded by the Pletcher crew, NC flashed potential when finishing third behind subsequent 2x G1 winner Chancer McPatrick, over 6 1/2f on the Saratoga main track first time out. He failed to build on that promise when stretched out to one mile next time, but then rekindled his connection’s belief in him by running second to Zulu Kingdom when trying the turf for the first time in the Pilgrim S. (G3), September 28. He was traveling best along the rail into the stretch that day but never got a true clear path until the 1/8th pole, from where he closed fast to just miss by a neck. When he then galloped out strongly in front of the field, a lot of handicappers were left believing that the best horse finished second.
Considering that Zulu Kingdom is widely considered to be America’s leading hope in this race, one surely has to give NC some consideration at around double the price? The obvious worry is that he’s yet to cross the wire in front, and he’s going to have to run faster if he’s to score. However, he remains unexposed on the turf, and as he’s out of a Noble Mission mare, he could easily step forward to get his hooves over some firmer footing (the Pilgrim S. was run on yielding turf). The cut back to a flat mile shouldn’t be too much of an issue for him, and he’s also landed a cushy draw in gate three.
On all known form, it would be a surprise if he were to win this race, but it wouldn’t be a complete shock if he was to hit the board.
#4 Al Qudra
C Appleby
James Doyle
4/1
A progressive Godolphin charge from Europe, who parlayed a length defeat at Royal Ascot with a win in the Pat Eddery S. next out, AQ had twice beaten the re-opposing New Century in Europe but had to settle for second behind him in the Summer S. (G1) at Woodbine last time. He wasn’t the only heavily bet Appleby runner to disappoint that day, though, and he was also badly hampered in the stretch as the winner was rolling with a clean trip down the center, so excuses can be made for the defeat, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him reverse that form on Friday. Will that be good enough for him to score? This is the key question. Well, Appleby has taken this prize three times since 2013, so he clearly knows the type of horse to excel in this race, and he highlighted the Juvenile Turf as AQ’s end-of-season target way back in July, which has to be a good sign. He’s looked great training at Keeneland recently, putting in this superb breeze last Sunday, and when you assess his overall body of form, the required talent seems to be there. He has a running style that’s been common among recent winners, so provided he breaks well from his ideal post position and gets a clean trip, there looks to be no reason why he can’t be involved late on.
#5 Zulu Kingdom
Chad Brown
Flavian Prat
8/1
Chad Brown successfully used the Pilgrim S. (G2) as Structor’s final prep before he won this race in 2019, and he’ll be looking to do the same here with Zulu Kingdom.
With a perfect three-for-three record, it’s hard to knock what ZK has done in his career to date. Following a maiden-breaking debut effort at Saint Could (Fr), the son of Ten Sovereigns was privately purchased by Madaket Stables, LLC, Michael Dubb, William Straus, et al., and hopped over the pond to join Chad Brown’s barn. He then managed to live up to the hype in his American debut, beating Tenacious Leader in the With Anticipation S. (G3) at Saratoga before he followed up with a game victory over Noble Confessor in the aforementioned Pilgrim S. last time.
With three straight wins and top connections behind him, it’s little surprise that he’s seemingly America’s best hope at glory in this race, according to the morning line at least. However, when you watch his races back, it seems he’s been a touch fortunate to win either of his American starts. He took advantage of a dream inside rail trip when scoring by a just neck two back, and then he only just held off the fast-finishing Noble Confessor last time after that rival had found himself bottled up in traffic for a long way. He has been getting the job done, but certainly hasn’t been dominating his competition.
Considering his race record and connections, ZK is unquestionably worthy of respect in this race, but it feels as if others have more upside than him, and it seems unlikely that he’s once again going to cross the wire in front without looking the best horse in the race. The cut back to a flat mile could also raise question marks, and for now, he’s probably best left alone.
#6 Iron Man Cal
Phil D’Amato
Antonio Fresu
30/1
Going out for California’s perennial leading turf trainer, Phil D’Amato, IMC will be the lone West Coast trained runner in this year’s Juvenile Turf.
A talented son on Collected, who broke his maiden at the second time of asking over Friday’s course and distance, IMC booked his ticket to the Breeder’s Cup when scoring at odds of 6/5 in the Zuma Beach S. (G3) at Santa Anita, October 06. It wasn’t without controversy that he won that race, though, as he actually crossed the wire a head behind in second before being promoted via the DQ of Artislas, who had drifted off the rail and sandwiched him tightly in between another rival crossing the wire. Did the interference make a difference to the result? Here’s the replay so you can decide for yourself.
A big, powerful colt with a likable attitude and a beautiful long-flowing stride, he has looked great in training since the Zuma Beach, recently turning in an impressive 5/8-mile drill in company with Uncle Dude and Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) contender, Though Process. He certainly appears to be coming here in top form and ready to throw in a big effort; however, a strong argument can be made that he’s not even the best turf juvenile in California, never mind America or the world, and on all known form, he’ll need to take a huge step forward to be getting competitive here. He’s another who’s likely to be contributing to the predicted fast early pace, and it would be a surprise if he wasn’t overhauled late on.
#7 Seagulls Eleven
Hugo Palmer
Luis Saez
15/1
A 50,000 GNS son of Galileo Gold, Seagulls Eleven will be one of two runners in this race going out for Newmarket-based trainer, Hugo Palmer.
Beaten on debut by future stake winner/GSP performer, Yaroogh, SE made no mistake the second time out, as he ran his six rivals ragged at Haydock Park, sprinting clear of last weekend’s Criterium de Saint-Cloud (G1) runner-up, Green Desert.
His following three starts have all come in group races, where he’s more than held his own against tougher company. Following a runner-up in a G2 at Newmarket, he split the re-opposing pair of Henri Matisse and Aomori City when finishing third in the National Stakes (G1) at the Curragh (Ire), before tiring into fourth on soft ground in Britain’s premier two-year-old event - the Dewhurst Stakes (G1) - last time.
Although he only has the one win to his name, his form and speed figures fit squarely amongst the more favored European runners in this race, and it seems that if he was trained by Appleby or O’Brien, he’d be a much shorter price. His one win came on the firmest turf course he’s run over, so you’d imagine the surface will pose no issue, and he’s also proven himself around a left-handed bend. What’s more, he displayed tactical versatility by running well both on and off the lead in England, and as he’s out of a half-sister to The Gold Cheongsam, who finished fifth in the 2016 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) at odds of 16/1, he has bloodlines that suggest he’ll handle this new challenge. There are plenty of positives regarding SE’s chances here, and if you like the key European players in this spot, you’ll have to give this guy some consideration as well.
#8 Minaret Station
Will Walden
Cristian Torres
30/1
Following the birth of their second child last Friday, this could be a truly magical week for Tessa and Will Walden, should Minarent Station get up to win the Juvenile Turf.
Having broken his maiden at the second time of asking in September, this well-bred son of 4x G2 winner/5x G1 runner-up, Beau Recall, caused a mammoth upset in the Bourbon S. (G2) at Keeneland, October 06, where he came flying from almost dead last to win cozily at odds of 38/1, booking his Breeder’s Cup ticket. Visually, he made a really nice impression that day, and the thing that made his win even more impressive was that the second and third-place finishers sat first and second for most of the journey. The pace held up fairly well, yet MS was still able to blow by them all late on.
Without a doubt, he’s earned his right to take part in this race, and depending on which speed figures you use, a legitimate case can be made for him. The concern is, though, he was hard-ridden a long way out in the Bourbon S. and only hit the front close to home, so he could struggle against this much deeper field, now cutting back to a flat mile (Bourbon S. was run over 1 1/16 miles). His overall form doesn’t stack up against the best of this group, and although it would be a great story if he were to win, it seems unlikely.
#9 The Waco Kid
Hugo Palmer
Tom Marquand
20/1
One of only two horses in the lineup to have already made six career starts, TWC earned his right to take a shot in this race when following up on his first stake placing with a 2 1/4 length score in the Tattersalls S. (G3) at Newmarket, September 26. As his trainer, Hugo Palmer, quite rightly said, “What's so lovely about this horse is that with every run, he's got better,” and he could well have more to offer still. However, he was allowed to walk the dog on the front end the last day before kicking away from a suspect field on soft turf, and he won’t be doing that on Friday. His overall body of form leaves him a little way behind the other Euros in this spot, and he might find these waters a little too deep. An interesting contender, but others hold stronger claims.
#10 Mentee
Todd Pletcher
John Velasquez
15/1
I doubt that in June, many people would have imagined that, having broken the five-furlong dirt track record at BAQ on debut, Mentee would ever have shown up in this spot. Yet here he is!
As a full brother to last year’s Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (G1) winner and now leading Classic hope, Fierceness, expectations have always been high for this Todd Pletcher-trained son of City of Light and in two of his three starts, he’s delivered on that promise. Following an interrupted preparation that led to a disappointing run in the Hopeful S. (G1) second out, he stepped foot on the turf for the first time in the 6f Futurity S. (G3) 28-days ago and, visually, was very impressive - bursting clear at the top of the stretch to win going away by 3 1/2L under just mild urging.
Despite having won a ‘WIYA’ for the Juvenile Turf Sprint, where his 83 BSF would set the standard amongst the American-based runners, connections have opted to stretch him out to one mile for the first time in this spot rather than cut him back to a flat five furlongs. Like his brother, there’s a chance that he’ll be suited by the stretch out in trip, and the way he hit the line the last day would also offer hope that he’ll cope with the extra yardage. However, his overall pedigree leans more towards sprinting, and he was also allowed to dictate slow fractions on the lead last time, possibly exasperating the visual impression he left.
Friday’s distance remains a huge question mark for Mentee, especially as he will be part of a pace that sets up nicely for the closers, and it would be brave to assume that he’ll see it out against G1 quality rivals. Although he’s talented, he’s probably best watched for now.
#11 New Century
Andrew Balding
Oisin Murphy
5/2
The likely favorite for this year’s Juvenile Turf, NC has been beautifully brought along by his 18x G1 winning trainer, Andrew Balding - gradually stepping up in distance with improved speed figures in each start.
Having twice been beaten by the re-opposing Al Qudra in England, he finally got the better of that old foe when following up on his first stake win in August with an authoritative score in Woodbine’s Summer S. (G1) last time - a Breeder’s Cup ‘WIYA’ event. NC was arguably aided by the troubled stretch run that AQ encountered that day; however, he also looked as if he had improved past him as he closed from further off the pace, went wider into the stretch, scored by a healthy margin, and then galloped out strongly in front. Post-race, Oisin Murphy was quoted as saying, “NC has really sharpened up from run to run... his homework even before the Stonehenge S. pointed towards the Breeders' Cup”.
Del Mar will present a new set of challenges to the son of Kameko, as he meets a fresh group of tougher rivals over a tight track with a shorter stretch than the tracks he’s become accustomed to. He won’t want to find himself too far off the pace and has been done no favors by being assigned gate eleven. However, the 93 BSF that he earned at Woodbine is the fastest on offer here, and he sets the standard for the only G1 winner in the lineup. With more potential to come, he’s unquestionably a live-win contender.
#12 Aomori City
Charlie Appleby
William Buick
10/1
Despite being less exposed than his stablemate Al Qudra, AC is the higher rated of the two in Britain, so it’s little surprise that Buick has opted to ride him over his stablemate, Al Qudra.
Having broken his maiden stylishly on debut in June, Appleby highlighted this race as his end-of-year target after he overcame a troubled trip to beat two next-out GSWs and become a GSW himself, in career start number three at Glorious Goodwood in August. He could only manage a fourth-place finish in his most recent start at the Curragh (Ire), where he finished behind both Henri Matisse and Seagulls Eleven; however, there were plenty of things to like about the effort, as he traveled powerfully in behind horses before staying on well in the closing stages. It was also noticeable how the top three finishers raced much closer to the inside rail than him that day, possibly warranting a performance upgrade. Although he’ll need to reverse those form lines, he’s improved his speed figures with each start to date and may still have more to offer. He should also relish this step up in distance and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him go close for his master trainer, although gate twelve is far from ideal.
#13 Henri Matisse
Aidan O’Brien
Ryan Moore
6/1
No trainer has won this race more times than the Ballydoyle maestro, A P O’Brien, and for that reason alone, HM deserves respect. However, his upward trajectory seems to have stalled somewhat after flashing signs of brilliance early in his career, breaking his maiden on debut before following up in back-to-back G2s. He was turned over at odds of 5/6 in the National Stakes (G1), when he ran around the track, lugging both left and right; and he then took a further step backwards when blinkers were added for the first time at Longchamp, October 06, this time finishing 5th as the 13/10 favorite.
He’s been described as a ‘lazy horse’ by O’Brien and often makes hard work of things, which isn’t a favorable quality to possess around Del Mar, where strong traveling types with sharp late bursts of speed tend to excel. He’s also never been around a L-hand bend in a race before, which is another potential cause for concern. No doubt, as a G1 runner-up, he’s clearly a talented colt, so he shouldn’t be entirely ruled out, however, he’s not an O’Brien trainee you want to be backing blind from gate thirteen. It's interesting to see the blinkers now come back off.
#14 Tenacious Leader
Todd Pletcher
Irad Ortiz
15/1
Rounding out the three-pronged attack that Todd Pletcher is launching on this race is Tenacious Leader, a $375,000 son of Not This Time, who will be searching for his first win on turf.
Heavily bet in all of his first three career starts, TL comfortably graduated out of the maiden ranks at the second time of asking in an off-turf MSW at Saratoga before Pletcher moved him to the turf in career start number three - The With Anticipation S. (G3). He was a touch unlucky not to have found the winner’s circle in that spot, as he sat a much wider trip than the eventual winner Zulu Kingdom and was coming back at the wire, having conceded the lead inside the final 1/8th.
Off the back of that effort, a case could be made for him here as he now makes his second turf start. The concern is, though, his most recent effort was fairly dismal when he was moved back to the dirt in the Breeder’s Futurity S. (G1), and worryingly, the trainer could offer no explanation for the performance. Maybe he’s just a better turf horse, but he’s going to have to prove it, and that won’t be easy having been drawn in the grandstand. He has the potential to develop into a nice type but looks one for another day.
#15 Sabertooth (AE)
Tim Yakteen
Kazushi Kimura
30/1
It would be a Rich Strike-like moment if this guy could draw off the AE list to score from the outside post. He’s done some good things in his career to date, including when he was beaten only a head in the Zuma Beach S. (G3) last time, and he has a wicked pedigree behind him, too. However, he remains winless after four career starts, and it seems unlikely he’ll break his duck in this race.
#16 Kale’s Angel (AE)
Peter Miller
Paco Lopez
30/1
Californian-based runner, Kale’s Angel, will need some luck to draw into this field and even more, luck if he’s to win. Having broken his maiden over five furlongs the second time out, he finished a well-held fourth in the Zuma Beach S. (G3) last time, and he’ll have to take a huge step forward from that to be in any way competitive here.
Verdict
I’m a guy who loves stats and trends, and thanks to this fantastic piece from the legendary Barry Faulkner over at attheraces.com, we can see that when searching for the winner of this race, it pays to focus on low-drawn Euros who are somewhere toward the head of the market. Therefore, I will make Al Qudra my top pick in this race and hope that he can bag Appleby his fourth Juvenile Turf victory. He’s already twice beaten the morning line favorite New Century back in England and was unlucky not to have finished closer to that foe last time. There isn’t all that much between the pair ability-wise, but NC was done no favors when he drew gate eleven on Monday. AQ’s running style should be the more favorable of the two when it comes to running around Del Mar (AQ has a sharper turn of foot, where as NC can take a while to find top gear). Appleby recently discussed how Buick was having a tough time deciding who to ride in this spot so I’m not too concerned that he’s jumped onto Aomori City instead of sticking with AQ. Having ridden six winners from his last twenty rides in England, it may be a positive that the red-hot James Doyle is taking the mount. His Woodbine BSF is higher than anything that the American-trained horses have produced, and I recon that he can capitalize on a favorable post position following his sparkling recent workout at Keeneland.
The Japanese have come to Del Mar locked and loaded this year, and they look to have a real shot at this race with the horse I’ll make my second choice, Satono Carnaval. How can you not be taken with a horse who wins like this on debut? Noriyuki Hori wouldn’t have brought this colt here, bypassing plenty of lucrative prizes in Japan, if he didn’t think that he had a real shot at glory, and with such a high-quality pedigree that’s littered with American turf form, strongly suggesting that he’ll improve for this one-mile test, he looks to be providing tremendous value at around 20/1.
To round out my top three, I’ll take a stab at another long-priced runner in the shape of Noble Confessor. Pletcher has always thought highly of this colt, and I thought that he shaped better than Zulu Kingdom when forced to wait for a run in the Pilgrim S. (G3) last time. Considering that Zulu Kingdom is the shortest-priced of the home team in Friday’s race, the 15/1 ML odds on this horse look too good for me to turn down. With a nice draw in gate three and the strong chance of him stepping forward now getting onto firm turf for the first time, I’ll use him to round out a healthy trifecta, possibly in conjunction with Seagulls Eleven.
Selections: 4-1-3