2024 Kentucky Derby Speed Figure Heat Map
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Kentucky Derby Figure Heat Map - Tyler Whisman
The first article I published with ITM was the 2019 Kentucky Derby Speed Figure Heat Map. It’s still worth reading for some historical perspective on how I’ve used these heat maps. And here’s the 2023 and 2022 version.
TL;DR—I examine four popular speed figure products and create a visual that quickly shows which horses are fastest among the different methodologies. Typically, I chart the best figure and the last figure. Often, those are the same, but not always.
With the help of some conditional formatting, the basic gist is that green (80th percentile) is good and red (20th percentile) is bad or faster and slower, respectively. As you might have guessed, white is in the middle (50th percentile).
Recently, I’ve added a couple of pace elements because it’s become a bigger focus of my overall handicapping approach in the last few years. And no race has more pace-related scrutiny than the Kentucky Derby!
I’ll share my thoughts on pace using our ThoroPACE Analytics tools in the coming days.
So, here’s what we have for the 2024 running…
So, how do I plan to use this to analyze the 2024 Kentucky Derby?
The easiest place to start is identifying horses that are essentially all red. These are the first horses I typically toss (from the win end for sure) - unless there is a valid excuse. Since very few horses run a lifetime top in the Kentucky Derby these horses are certainly up against it. DORNOCH, WEST SARATOGA, ENDLESSLY, DOMESTIC PRODUCT, and GRAND MO THE FIRST all fit that bill. Probably no surprises there.
BUT…I think one runner on that list is very live based on ThoroPACE analysis. That horse is Domestic Product. His closing kick will be useful in a race that figures to have a very fast pace. He exits the slowest races (from a pace perspective) on the Derby trail so there are some things to like, including the price.
Most of the “green” horses are also rather obvious. FIERCENESS is a clear standout, at least on Speed Figures. That said, his massive figure from the Florida Derby was earned under ideal circumstances. He’s far from a cinch, given the likely pace dynamics.
HONOR MARIE and CATCHING FREEDOM are fast on all figures, except Thoro-Graph. Both colts have been able to save ground around the turns given their come from behind running style - this is a partial explanation, given the methodology of how those figures are assigned. SIERRA LEONE is another stretch runner that is paddling in a sea of green. This trio is dangerous since they’ll all get a solid pace on Saturday. I expect all three to be passing horses in the lane. Just how many will be trip dependent. I’ll also predict that if Fierceness doesn’t win, the best Thoro-Graph figure from the Derby comes from this group.
Another utility of the heat map is identifying potential value horses. The Heat Map seems to suggest JUST A TOUCH could be a candidate for that descriptor. If the Morning Line holds, and his stablemate attracts more money, there’s a solid chance he’s the fifth choice in the wagering. His tactical speed should have him well positioned to make some noise late.
The data points on the Japanese runners are limited. TFUS has the UAE Derby as a slow race. However, if you factor in ground loss, via the Thoro-Graph methodology, FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) is among the fastest in this crop and looks like he has every right to move forward in the Derby. If he does, he probably wins. And he’ll likely be the third Japanese horse I’ll back in as many years. Make of that what you will. Still, he looks legit and has a running style that should suit any pace scenario on Saturday. I’m hoping for 10-1, but I'm okay with anything north of 8-1.
I also like to take a closer look at horses with variability among the figures. Because of methodology, BRIS and Beyers typically align with each other. TimeFormUS and Thoro-Graph can result in some differences in races with pace extremes and ground loss, respectively. This can identify horses that might be vulnerable, especially at the price.
We’ve already discussed the Louisiana Derby being an outlier on Thoro-Graph. Another interesting race is the Wood Memorial. BRIS has the Wood as one of the fastest preps, whereas the others have it among the slowest. RESILIENCE looks unremarkable from a speed figure perspective. But he’s an alumnus of the very strong Risen Star Stakes and he’s in very capable hands. His best might not be good enough to win but I’d be nervous leaving him out underneath.
There are a few horses that are difficult reads based on the Heat Map - ones that I really don’t have a strong opinion on either way. JUST STEEL certainly has plenty of foundation and has some very strong figures. He doesn’t win often but he’s been on the board in over half of his attempts. I’m not sure how good he is, but don’t underestimate the Coach. MYSTIK DAN is another one that has me confused. His bias-aided win in a sloppy edition of the Southwest Stakes is a bit of an outlier relative to the rest of his form. But he’ll be a big price and has a top local pilot. ENCINO was impressive in his dirt debut and earned the confidence of his dangerous connections following his impressive work Saturday morning. Finally, STRONGHOLD looks a cut below the others, but he’s done little wrong and comes in under the radar.
I’ll share more of my thoughts later this week. For now, I’ll say that Forever Young (JPN) and Domestic Product will be prominent on my tickets, along with the trio from the Brad Cox barn. Sierra Leone looks likely to run his race, but there’s a chance he gets the best Thoro-Graph figure and still loses the race due to ground loss.
Fierceness is far and above the rest in speed at the end of his races. No one can or will catch him.