2022 Kentucky Derby Speed Figure Heat Map

We are kicking off our ITM Plus Kentucky Derby content tonight! There will be several emails between now and Saturday.

As a reminder, you can always access the archives by visiting our Substack Homepage.

Here’s a reminder of what to expect this week:

• ITM Picks Grid for Oaks and Derby Day Stakes - PTF, JK, Nick Tammaro, Michelle Yu, etc.

• Wagering Strategy considerations for three different budgets - $250, $500, $1,000 - 2021 Version

• Special 3YO $3 Pick 3 Strategy from Drew Coatney - 2021 Version

• JK Pick 5 Analysis for Kentucky Derby Day - Possibly the All-Dirt Pick 5

• Frank Scatoni Kentucky Derby Pick 4 Matrix

• Two Exclusive ITM Plus Podcasts

  • 2 Day (ALL GRADE 1) Pick 6 Podcast

  • Kentucky Derby Superfecta Strategy

• Ask Me Anything Podcast - Chance to ask the ITM Team (PTF and JK) questions:

  • ITM Plus Subscribers, go to the bottom of this post for details

• Notes from the Final Answers and Pro Players Roundtable Show

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Kentucky Derby Figure Heat Map - Tyler Whisman

The first article I ever published with ITM was the 2019 Kentucky Derby Speed Figure Heat Map. It’s worth reading for some historical perspective on how I’ve used these heat maps in the past. And here’s the 2021 version.

TL;DR - I take a look at four popular speed figure products and create a visual that provides a way to quickly see which horses are fastest among the different methodologies. Typically, I chart the best figure and last figure. Often, those are the same, but not always (See X HORSE).

With the help of some conditional formatting, the basic gist is that green (80th percentile) is good and red (20th percentile) is bad or in this case faster and slower, respectively.  White, as you might have guessed, is in the middle (50th percentile).

Last year I decided to add a couple of pace elements because it’s become a bigger focus of my overall handicapping approach in the last few years. And no race has more pace-related scrutiny than the Kentucky Derby.

So, here’s what we have for the 2022 running…

Click on the Image for Higher Resolution

So how do I plan on using this as I’m analyzing the 2022 Kentucky Derby?

The easiest place to start is identifying horses that are essentially all red. These are the first horses I typically toss (from the win end for sure) - unless there is a valid excuse, as there was in 2019 with Code of Honor. Since very few horses run a lifetime top in the Kentucky Derby these horses are certainly up against it. Classic Causeway, Ethereal Road, Pioneer of Medina, Barber Road, Happy Jack and Tawny Port (the toughest one to eliminate) all fit that bill. Probably no surprises there.

Most of the “green” horses are also rather obvious. Zandon has a lot going for him according to this heat map. I’m not sure he goes as the post time favorite but his late pace numbers combined with his ability to overcome adversity make him a reliable key in my opinion. Yes, he will be a short price, but of those that come in fastest, I’m most confident he will fire.

Taiba is fast on all figures but obviously, questions remain. The speed figures are likely no surprise but the pace figures are truly remarkable. A quick interpretation is that he can hang with any of these early yet his late pace numbers are equally strong. This alone is enough to prevent me from taking a negative stand on Taiba.

I’m not fully against Epicenter in this spot, but I do see some vulnerability with the morning line favorite from a speed figure perspective. The heat map is green but the shading here is important for a horse that might be the post time favorite. It appears he will need to take a step forward.

*The assessment of Epicenter is probably a good time to note that I rely heavily on Thoro-Graph figures.

Another utility with the heat map is identifying potential value horses. To me, both horses from the Yakteen barn are formidable. The morning line really makes this difficult to write about because I firmly believe the prices on Taiba and Messier are reversed. I had Messier around 10-1 on my own line and with anything over that, he’s probably the biggest overlay in the field.

Smile Happy is another who might provide some value. So much so that I’ve elevated his chances over the past week. A reminder that everything is price dependent in this game.

I also like to take a closer look at horses that have variability among the figures. Because of methodology, BRIS and Beyers typically align with each other. TimeFormUS and Thoro-Graph can result in some differences in races with pace extremes and ground loss, respectively.

White Abarrio looks slow on all figures except Thoro-Graph. While I said earlier that I prefer their figures most, in this case I think it’s a “ground-loaded” figure that doesn’t tell the whole story. That is, if you think the outside was good on Florida Derby day, like many do, you’re giving him extra credit for being on the best part of the track. If you downgrade that figure, he needs to improve to be competitive here. While he’s working well, the map says minimize him in all wagers.

The Wood Memorial is generally fast on all figures but there is some variability. It seems that Beyer speed figures are what the public uses most and as a result, Mo Donegal might offer relative value since they (Beyer) have the race a little slower than other services. Combine that with the rail draw and he might be an overlay based on ability.

Tiz the Bomb will be a price and there’s not much sense in talking people off a longshot they like. While relatively fast on the clock (and thereby TFUS and BRIS), he comes in slow on Thoro-Graph thanks to a ground-saving trip. A trip he’s not going to get here as he lacks the necessary early speed and will be kept wide to avoid the kickback. This makes him a relatively easy toss for me.

I’ll share more of my thoughts in the wagering strategy article. For now, I’ll say that Zandon reminds me a lot of Essential Quality and Game Winner. He’s the most likely horse to run his race but there’s a chance he runs the best Thoro-Graph figure and still loses the race due to ground loss.

The three horses I like best are Zandon, Messier and Crown Pride (JPN). I’m confident two of them will show up on Saturday and Crown Pride (JPN) is a wild card with a lot of potential upside.

I’ve still got time to decide my approach with Taiba…

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Ask Me Anything Podcast

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