Here is a quick note on what to expect from here…We will send out the OAKS Pick Grid this afternoon. The Wagering Guide will follow along with several exclusive podcasts!
Vulnerable Favorites for Derby Day 2023
Before we dive in, we should acknowledge that “vulnerable favorite” can mean many things to many people. For our purposes, these are horses with odds that are disproportionate to their actual odds of winning. Most of the horses below have a great chance of winning, just not a 70% chance of winning. With that out of the way, let’s find some value by identifying where favorites can be faded.
Friday Race 8: Unbridled Sidney Stakes 5.5 (turf): 5, 11, 1
Beatable Favorite: #11 Caravel (4/5) In these sprints, anything can happen (see Golden Pal in the Breeers’ Cup ’22). What I’m not loving is the fact both victories came with neutral TimeForm US Pace figures. And Saez is aboard the inside speed that will make sure Caravel has to work for every step. The other part I don’t love is that this horse has failed as a heavy favorite a few times, so let’s not get blinded by the recency bias here. The horse is a likely winner… but 60%+ chance to win? I don’t so.
Best Value: Miner’s Queen (20-1) Speed horse with Saez and will dead send from the inside. Two back came off the break and never found his footing firing a dull effort. Last out was hustled hard out of the gate, led, the fought on well enough as they ran down the lane. Third off the break and needs to run a career best.
Saturday Race 4: Derby City Distaff 7f (dirt): 1, 2, 3
Beatable Favorite: #2 Goodnight Olive (4/5) Last out beat up on tomato cans and that was a blah come backer off the layoff. She was all over the track, unfocused, and downlining. A completely different stretch drive than the one we saw in the Breeders’ Cup F&M sprint. Two back, that F&M Sprint she was brilliant and ran a career best performance overcoming adversity. Three back, in the Ballerina she had the easiest of trips and beat some sub-par horses. It's hard to back an extremely priced horse that has gotten away with clean trips, a subpar prep coming in, and hasn’t faced strong competition.
Best Value: #1 Hot and Sultry (6-1) Did all the dirty work in the Apple Blossom against Clairiere and Secret Oath, extending the lead to 4-6L, then found more down the lane to finish a very good 3rd. Today gets the cut back and could be the clear speed. Last four starts have continued to improve Beyers and don’t see any reason this race would be different.
Saturday Race 12: The Kentucky Derby 10f (dirt): 17, 10, 7
Beatable Favorite: #15 Forte (3-1) Last two races had perfect setups. Last race Mage did all the dirty work to allow this runner to circle wide and get his nose down in time. Two back sat a perfect trip and passed a bunch of down-liners who couldn’t finish. Today will need to show even more versatility and overcome some serious adversity. The figures are about the same as every runner in this field, so why take favoritism with a runner who is going to have to out close horses like Tapit Trice.
Top Choice: #17 Derma Sotagake (10-1) The Japanese have arrived and this runner is stellar. He is a pressing type who knows how to overcome adversity. If this one can establish some early position along the back stretch 2-3 wide and sitting 3-4 lengths of the pace, this runner will cruise home to a big win. LOVE this horse and I don’t say that often in the KY Derby.
Next Best: #10 Practical Move (10-1) Strong pressing style of runner who will be in the top few as they make the first turn. Continues to show dominate performances and may have something left to give and a step forward.
Backups: #7 Reincarnate (50-1) Medina Spirit like and maybe didn’t love the surface down at Oaklawn. Today could reverse form back to the Sham at Santa Anita
If anyone has questions, feel free to drop them here and I'll try to get anything answered.