UPDATE: Pick 4 Matrix
***Please use this version as it reflects the defection of Skinner!
What a doozy of a sequence in the Derby Pick 4 on this fine first Saturday in May. There’s a 14-race card at Churchill Downs, so that means the Pick 4 that ends with the Derby (G1) itself takes place in Races 9 through 12. Scheduled post time for Race 9 is 3:40 ET, and it’s a perfect way to make a huge score right as the SoCal races at Santa Anita Park (my bread and butter!) begin to get underway. So, let’s dig in and see if we can make some $$$ in this challenging sequence! For more of what I’m doing, follow me on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot or check out my new website www.frankscatoni.com.
Race 9 (Leg 1):
We kick off the sequence with an oversubscribed field of 16 horses entered in a very competitive renewal of the $500K American Turf (G2), an 8.5-furlong turf affair for 3-year-olds.
#1 MAJOR DUDE (5/2), the first Pletcher entrant, has been a major dude since getting on turf, finishing first or second in four of his last five races (including one on synth). His only poor race came when he had to break from the 13-hole in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). Today he gets to save ground while racing at his preferred distance of 8.5-furlongs, where he’s a perfect 2-for-2. “Any major dude with half a heart surely will tell you, my friend” that it’s tough to take a favorite in such a full field, but you’d be silly not to use him. GRADE: A.
#2 FAR BRIDGE (7/2), the second Pletcher runner, was a perfect 2-for-2 under Clement before he switched barns. He faces stakes foes for the first time, but this runner has shown plenty of talent, and he’s certainly run fast enough to have a say in here, especially if he moves up at all today. Do note that win-rider Jose Ortiz, however, ends up elsewhere. GRADE: A.
#3 MENDELSSOHNS MARCH (12/1) has shown versatility with wins on turf (via DQ) and on dirt (in the slop), but he faces a stiff class test today against seemingly faster animals. He wasn’t totally disgraced in the Blue Grass (G1) when he had to break from the 11-hole, but he will need to conduct a forward move today for the W. GRADE: X.
#4 TALK OF THE NATION (10/1) is a perfect 2-for-2 on turf, including an easy win against overnight-stakes foes at Tampa last time as the 6/5 favorite. His come-home times are pretty solid, but he’s a horse who likes to stalk-and-pounce, so perhaps he’ll be a little too close to an anticipated quick early pace today. GRADE: B.
#5 JOHANNES (15/1) has exuded a lot of class since hopping on the turf to reel off three wins in a row in dominating fashion. I love the way he’s traveled out here in SoCal, but he’s going to face much tougher animals than the weaker fields he’s been beating up on. Still, I think there is a lot of ability here, and he’s plenty tactical, so Rispoli can put him wherever he wants. GRADE: A.
#6 BEHIND ENEMY LINES (GB) (30/1) made his first U.S. start a winning one, easily taking an overnight-stakes race at Gulfstream Park. He certainly looks like a horse who can go from 7.5-furlongs to today’s 8.5-furlongs, but he’s facing some tough customers, so he’ll need another step forward today. Also note that win-rider Jose Ortiz ends up elsewhere, though you lose nothing with Prat, of course. GRADE: X.
#7 DESERT DUKE (30/1) has won two in a row in wire fashion, beating up on maidens two back and then allowance foes last time. He’s made it look easy, but I’m having a hard time seeing him wire this group. And guess what? Win-rider Jose Ortiz ends up elsewhere! GRADE: X.
#8 MO STASH (10/1) just wired foes to take a Grade 3 at Keeneland on good turf. He doesn’t necessarily need the lead, but he does like to be forwardly placed, and I’m anticipating a pretty honest pace in here, so this guy will have to really earn a victory today, while turning the tables on Talk of the Nation, who beat him on the square two back. GRADE: X.
#9 ANGLOPHILE (50/1) came off a long layoff to run a decent second to Behind Enemy Lines (GB) in a 7.5-furlong affair at Gulfstream Park. He can certainly move forward today, but will it be enough to beat the best in here? Probably not. GRADE: X.
#10 OTAGO (30/1) is a Florida-bred who is likely looking at a wide stalking trip—and that’s not usually the winning one on turf. He’ll also have to show he can handle open stakes company after just beating state-bred stakes foes by a neck. GRADE: X.
#11 CARL SPACKLER (IRE) (3/1) is where Jose Ortiz ends up, and as mentioned, he had plenty of options in here. I’m not surprised he chose a Chad Brown runner, but this “former greenskeeper, now about to become the Masters champion” is coming off a maiden victory where he was twenty-cents on the dollar, so he should have won by eight-plus lengths. He can win, but it’s hard to take 3/1 on him. That said, Brown isn’t running a recent maiden-breaker against stakes foes unless he thought he could win. GRADE: A.
#12 FUNTASTIC AGAIN (12/1) has plenty of early zip, so he’ll have to go hard from out here in order to get good position—and there is other speed inside of him. I think that takes its toll late on a horse whose three wins have come on synth and dirt. GRADE: X.
#13 ANDTHEWINNERIS (30/1) has hinted at ability, winning the Bourbon (G2) as a 2-year-old and then the Texas Mile to kick off his sophomore year—but his last two races saw him encounter some trouble and then fail to hit the board. Catalano will put the hood on today, and I’ve never been a fan of an equipment change for a big race. GRADE: X.
#14 WEBSLINGER (20/1) looks to be creeping toward a big race after just finishing a decent third in a Grade 3 at Keeneland. That was on good turf, and his best form is on firm, so it wouldn’t shock me if he was motoring home late. The problem here is the tough post. GRADE: B.
#15 WADSWORTH (15/1) (AE) removes the hood and tries turf for the first time after weakening in a 9-furlong Grade 3 on synth. The cutback will surely help, but he’s facing proven turfers, and he’s likely looking at a wide stalking trip. GRADE: X.
#16 SCOOBIE QUANDO (30/1) (AE) is another one who is trying turf for the first time, so I’m fine watching one, especially since Wadsworth beat him on the square three back. GRADE: X.
Race 10 (Leg 2):
The second leg of this terrific sequence is the $750K Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), a 7-furlong main-track affair. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner is the prohibitive favorite in here. Can he be beaten?
#1 WHITE ABARRIO (6/1) is a very cool horse who has run some big races, but his best work has come at Gulfstream Park, and his two slowest races have come here at Churchill Downs. Plus, he’ll have to break from the rail, so he might have to use a little more speed earlier than he would like. Plus, there’s a dark cloud hanging over his trainer this week, and all of his horses are scheduled to scratch. GRADE: X.
#2 C Z ROCKET (10/1), the first Miller entrant, has always been a very honest sprinter, as he’s earned almost $2 million the hard way. He ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) last year, but I do believe that was a very weak edition of that race. You can expect this grinder to be grinding along, as per usual, but do note that he just ran halfway around the world at Meydan on March 25. That seems like a tough ask to come back and fire big against these. GRADE: B.
#3 HERE MI SONG (30/1) necked out a few of today’s contenders in the Commonwealth (G3) last time, so hats off to him. He always seems to fire, and you have to admire a horse who has hit the board in 13 of his 19 career starts. Can he win a Grade 1? We shall see. GRADE: X.
#4 HOIST THE GOLD (30/1) is a very good exotics horse, since he loves to settle for the minor awards—check out those eight placings compared to just two wins. He was necked out last time by his inside neighbor, and now he has to square up against a couple of tough new faces. GRADE: X.
#5 GET HER NUMBER (12/1), the second Miller runner, has had some trouble at the start of his last two races, so even though a few of these beat him last time, I think he can do better today. He usually runs a pretty good race, and unlike most of the others, he’s got good form in Grade 1 races (check out that head defeat in the Cigar Mile last year). GRADE: B.
#6 TEJANO TWIST (6/1) has run some pretty big races, but he’s been plying his trade at 6-furlongs, and we all know that there is a massive difference between 6-furlongs and 7-furlongs. In fact, this guy is 0-for-3 going 7-panels. I think part of it is that he’s a deep closer who has to deal with softer early splits in elongated sprints, so that prevents him from showing his best stuff. GRADE: B.
#7 CODY’S WISH (4/5) was an absolute monster last year, riding a four-race win streak that culminated in a game victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) as the 2/1 favorite. I played against him that day, since I thought he was a one-turn specialist, but he proved me wrong. One mile is definitely his preferred distance, but he does have a win at 7-furlongs. He’ll just need to start his move a lot sooner today. GRADE: A.
#8 FORTIN HILL (20/1) gets wise-guy consideration, even though he’s never raced in a graded-stakes before—and that’s saying something for a 7-year-old. So why do I give him a shot? There’s not much speed in here, and he has the right running style to try and steal the race. He’ll likely need another step forward, but this really is a pretty paceless race. GRADE: B.
#9 SIR ALFRED JAMES (50/1) will likely try to keep Fortin Hill honest—or if he wants the lead, he can take it, adding blinkers today. He was no good against Fortin Hill last time, chasing the pace and weakening, but perhaps the inside was no good for him that day. Note the last time he ran in a graded-stakes race, he finished fifth. GRADE: X.
#10 ENDORSED (5/1) looks to pose the main threat to the favorite, since he seems to be in peak form as a 7-year-old. Granted, his three recent wins all came at Gulfstream Park, so we’ll see if he can replicate those races here, but he’s a lot more tactical than the favorite, so he should be sitting right off his two inside neighbors looking to pounce. GRADE: B.
#11 STEAL SUNSHINE (30/1) was no match for Endorsed two back in the Gulfstream Mile (G2), and last time, he was denied in a 7-furlong affair, rallying a bit too late. I do like that he’s a lightly raced 4-year-old, so he definitely has room to improve, but can he improve enough to outkick the favorite and some other decent late runners? Meh. GRADE: X.
Race 11 (Leg 3):
Today’s third leg is the $1 million Turf Classic (G1), a 9-furlong affair contested on the lawn.
#1 OCEAN ATLANTIQUE (20/1) has tactical speed and drew the rail, so his hand is sort of forced. He’s also been plying his trade of late against lesser on the synth. I respect Maker in these big spots, but this seems like a tall order for this gelding. GRADE: X.
#2 MASTER PIECE (CHI) (8/1) was a fierce competitor in the turf division out in California over the summer, but he’s winless since capturing the Eddie Read (G2) at Del Mar. He’s always had a pretty strong late kick, so you can expect him to be rolling late. Will it be enough? Plus, it should be noted that his beleaguered trainer is under heavy scrutiny this week. GRADE: X.
#3 WOLFIE’S DYNAGHOST (10/1) has tactical speed and should be pressing the early pace. He’s done excellent work on the synth, but his turf form isn’t too shabby either. That said, I can see him attending the pace and then getting overtaken late. GRADE: X.
#4 STEADY ON (5/1), the first Pletcher entrant, always seems to show up, and his come-home times are pretty good for a lightly raced 4-year-old, but he’s never been this far, so we shall see if he can show the same oomph at today’s distance. GRADE: B.
#5 UP TO THE MARK (4/1), the second Pletcher runner, looks like a better version of his stablemate—a lightly raced 4-year-old who has pretty strong come-home times but who has never been this far before. On the plus side, he’s coming off a solid third in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1), so he does have graded-stakes form. GRADE: A.
#6 EARLS ROCK (IRE) (10/1), the first D’Amato charge, also has never run this far, so we’ll see if he shows the same stretch run he did two and three back when facing lesser foes. Last time, he ran a dud after a rough journey in the American (G3), so he’ll need to do a lot better today. GRADE: X.
#7 HONG KONG HARRY (IRE) (7/2) was a little flat in the Frank E. Kilroe (G1), but he was coming off a November layoff, and it’s quite possible this guy needed the race. He loves today’s distance, and he has races that are certainly fast enough to win this. He’s a major contender, but do note that Master Piece (Chi) beat him on the square in the Eddie Read (G2) over the summer. GRADE: A.
#8 SANTIN (9/2) is a multiple Grade 1 winner, so even though he looks like he tailed off last year, he brings plenty of back-class to the table. I’m guessing last time on the synth was just a prep for this, since he was coming off a November layoff and racing on a non-preferred surface. GRADE: A.
#9 SPOOKY CHANNEL (5/1) is in excellent form, having won four of his last five, with two of those victories coming after he needed a year off from October 2021 to December 2022. He has a solid late kick, and he has a win over this course. The one concern is that his best work has been against slightly less classier animals. GRADE: B.
#10 BYE BYE MELVIN (6/1) has speed and an outside post, so he’ll have to use that gas to gain position early. I think he’ll end up pushing the pace with a few others inside of him, and that will likely soften them all up late. GRADE: X.
Race 12 (Leg 4):
We close out this tough Pick 4 with the big one: the $3 million Kentucky Derby (G1), a 10-furlong main-track affair for 3-year-olds. It drew an oversubscribed field, so pay attention to the Also Eligibles, since we all know what happened last year when Rich Strike snuck into the race and shocked the world at a huge number—and as of this writing, Practical Move is slated to be declared from the race.
#1 HIT SHOW (30/1), one of four Brad Cox runners, has gotten better in each one of his starts, so another move forward is not out of the question—but can he overcome the dreaded rail post? He likes to track the pace, but he’s going to get buried if he doesn’t hustle out of there. GRADE: C.
#2 VERIFYING (15/1), Cox number-two, looked like the winner in the Blue Grass (G1) until he was edged out late by Tapit Trice. Will a similar fate await as this one tries to go 10-panels today? He does have speed, so at least he should get a good forward position in this big field. GRADE: C.
#3 TWO PHIL’S (12/1) was dominant in a Grade 3 at Turfway Park, but that came on synth, while his dirt races have been just meh. He’s lost lengths in the lane in every fast-dirt start around two turns, and he seems to be everyone’s wise-guy horse, so he’s unlikely to be good value. Let’s take him on. GRADE: X.
#4 CONFIDENCE GAME (20/1) would look a lot better if he had a more recent prep race. As it is, he’s been off since February, with his farthest race coming at 8.5-furlongs. He showed a nice late run when winning the Rebel (G2), but he was also flattered by a quick pace. GRADE: X.
#5 TAPIT TRICE (5/1), the first Pletcher runner, has won four in a row, including a game victory in the Blue Grass (G1) when he ran down Verifying with a very nice stretch run. Seemingly, the added ground will help him even more today, making him a legit contender. GRADE: A.
#6 KINGSBARNS (12/1), the second Pletcher, is a perfect 3-for-3 to start his career, and his tactical speed is part of the reason why he’s run so well—he makes his own good trips. He wired them last time in the Louisiana Derby (G2), but he doesn’t need the lead to get a victory. The only concern is that he lacks foundation (but so did Justify). GRADE: C.
#7 REINCARNATE (50/1), the first Yakteen charge, hasn’t shown the same punch racing beyond a mile—and he certainly hasn’t run as fast since leaving the Baffert barn. He seems a cut below the top ones in here, but I can tell you this: if Baffert were listed as the trainer, no way this guy would be 50/1 on the morning-line. That seems a bit crazy to me. Still, I prefer others a lot more. GRADE: X.
#8 MAGE (15/1) ran a big race in the Florida Derby (G1), coming from way off a quick pace to finish second—but he was still beaten by Forte. He should continue to move forward as a lightly raced 3-year-old, but will he have the foundation to win the Derby (G1) off just three starts? And can he turn the tables on Forte. GRADE: X.
#9 SKINNER (20/1) will get wise-guy consideration in here, since I really liked the way he finished up in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and trainer John Shirreffs certainly knows how to get horses to finish up races. Also, the jock change is massive. No knock to Espinoza, who has won his share of Triple Crown races, but he’s much better with tactical-speed horses, and this guy is going to come from off the pace—and no one is riding better right now than Hernandez (in California), so don’t sell this son of Curlin too short. Unfortunately, word is that he spiked a fever (like Practical Move), and he’s scheduled to scratch as well. Dang! GRADE: A.
#10 PRACTICAL MOVE (10/1), the second Yakteen, has really come into his own, winning three in a row and showing a lot of class while doing it. The concern, however, is that he was all-out to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last time going 9-furlongs, so will he be as effective going this long? And do note: he’s scheduled to be declared from the race. GRADE: X.
#11 DISARM (30/1) looks a cut below the best in here on paper, but I like the way this guy has worked, and I think it’s interesting that Asmussen ran him just a few weeks ago in the Lexington (G3), which hasn’t really been a path to Derby (G1) riches since, I believe, Charismatic ran in that race many moons ago. Still, I think this son of Gun Runner has a move forward in him today. Will it be enough? GRADE: B.
#12 JACE’S ROAD (50/1), the third Cox, has tactical speed and will likely use it to angle over and stalk the pace—but that means he’s likely to be wide throughout as well. Also, his graded-stakes form is well-below par for a race like this. GRADE: X.
#13 SUN THUNDER (50/1) is a deep closer who looks like a horse who could clunk up for a piece—but I don’t like that McPeek is adding blinkers today in an effort to keep this one closer to the pace and/or more focused. That could mitigate his closing kick, and how many times—with the exception of the flukish Rich Strike last year—have we seen these deep closers lack the same oomph going this far? GRADE: X.
#14 ANGEL OF EMPIRE (8/1) has never run a bad race on dirt, and he figures to keep moving forward as the fourth Cox trainee in this race. He destroyed a few of these in his last two races, widening at the end in both of them, so the added ground shouldn’t pose a problem. GRADE: A.
#15 FORTE (3/1), the third Pletcher, is a machine—and he’s the deserving favorite, despite the fact that some naysayers out there say he hasn’t progressed. I know he got a good pace set-up last time in the Florida Derby (G1), but he showed so much grit and class to get the win after taking all the dirt and having a lot of traffic trouble—and he still won easily. Pletcher is no dummy, so you can expect this runner to be in peak form in his run for the roses. Plus, how cool would it be to see last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner take the roses this year? Street Sense, anyone? GRADE: A.
#16 RAISE CAIN (50/1) ran on late to get fifth in the Blue Grass (G1), so perhaps he can round out the bottoms of your exotics at a huge number—but he needs a big step forward today to outkick some better-looking stretch-runners. GRADE: X.
#17 DERMA SOTOGAKE (JPN) (10/1) was impressive on the pace in the UAE Derby (G2), beating 12 other rivals fairly easily. Before that, he had solid form as a 2-year-old as well, so there is certainly plenty of quality here—but he’s going to have to gun hard from out here, and I suspect he’ll take his fair share of action since Japan has had so much recent success internationally the last few years. Plus, who was he beating at Meydan? GRADE: C.
#18 ROCKET CAN (30/1) will add blinkers today in an effort to show more focus in the lane, but he’ll need a massive step forward to beat the several runners who’ve already gotten the measure of him. GRADE: X.
#19 LORD MILES (30/1) was 59/1 when winning the Wood Memorial (G2) by a nose. Before that, he was no match for Tapit Trice, so I’m not sure if lightning will strike twice, especially since this guy likes to track the pace, and that means he’s in for a very wide journey. And as mentioned, his trainer has been a major distraction for the whole sport this week, and this runner is projected to scratch (along with all of his other runners). GRADE: X.
#20 CONTINUAR (JPN) (50/1), who makes his first U.S. start, looks to be a major cut below his fellow countryman, who beat him by 10-lengths at Meydan (and who has beaten him a few other times before that as well). Note that he is scheduled to be scratched from this race, so it looks like the Also Eligibles are going to get in if they want to! GRADE: X.
#21 CYCLONE MISCHIEF (30/1) (AE) has lost lengths in the lane in each of his graded-stakes attempts, so he’ll need a Herculean effort today to outstay all of the horses who’ve already beaten him. Note that he’s likely to get in the race once Practical Move defects (as is expected). Rich Strike redux? Not for me. GRADE: X.
#22 MANDARIN HERO (JPN) (20/1) (AE) ran a corker last time at 8/1, just missing by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He finished up really nicely, and that U.S. experience for this Japanese runner should help his cause today. It’s hard to knock a horse who has never finished out of the exacta in all six of his starts (with four of them being wins). Note that he’s scheduled to get in due to scratches in the main body of the race, giving him a big chance for the W (though see how California-based horses have been doing all day, since it seems there was a bug going around getting a few of them sick, including two in this race!). GRADE: A.
#23 KING RUSSELL (50/1) (AE) is a grinder who ran on late to finish second in the Arkansas Derby (G1), but he never really looked like the winner. He can move forward with added ground today, but will it be enough to make up four-lengths to Angel of Empire? I’m not sure if the #23 saddle towel has ever won the Derby, but this guy should get in the race, if you’re a believer! GRADE: X.
THE MATRIX
