2024 Breeders' Cup Trend Report
We are officially kicking off our ITM Plus Breeders’ Cup Content with the post below. As a reminder, you can see our detailed content plan HERE. As always, we have big plans and a mix of content that will be FREE and exclusive to ITM Plus.
This is the fifth edition of the Breeders’ Cup Trend Report.
Many concepts are still applicable, so it might be worthwhile to check out the 2020 - 2021 - 2022 - 2023 versions.
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I am a visual learner, and for years, I’ve played around with new ways to explore horse racing data. Regarding the Breeders’ Cup, I started tracking trends of where the winners were stabled. Eventually, I layered in trainers to see if there was any signal in the outcomes.
My approach and the tables below are pretty straightforward. I use conditional formatting to help me visualize whether winners of a particular race were stabled in the East, West, or Europe (or Japan!). Perhaps you think this is oversimplifying, but I’d suggest using it as a starting point for deeper analysis.
I’ll try to explain how I use these tables to inform my analysis. It should go without saying, but nothing here represents absolutes. Also, the focus here is on the winner, so even the strongest trends may not be fully useful for structuring vertical wagers.
The Breeders’ Cup returns to Del Mar for the third time (we’ll be back here next year too). Generally speaking, I think it’s helpful to look at the data a couple of ways - noting that sample size is always an issue. Is there a signal when looking at Breeders’ Cup races in California and then narrowing to Del Mar? That’s the gist.
For Turf races, I think viewing Del Mar and Santa Anita as a circuit makes sense. International horses are shipping with the understanding they’ll get quick ground and sharp turns.
But I think there’s some merit to treating the two tracks as separate entities for dirt racing. So, I’ll focus more on trends specific to Del Mar.
***If you double-click any of the images below, you can access a higher-resolution version
I started creating these tables to better understand where the European horses (and specific trainers) have excelled. Before conceding the Turf races to International connections, you must look at the data in the context of specific turf races. That said, you have to go back to 2021 (notably here at Del Mar) to find a US-based horse that won a Juvenile Turf race on Friday.
The European Juvenile Turf runners have a strong record. However, the Juvenile Fillies Turf division has been a different story—partly because of Chad Brown’s domination of this division.
The trends remain consistent if we narrow it to the Southern California Breeders’ Cup circuit. European runners won both editions of the Juvenile Turf at Del Mar. The message seems to be, don’t discount the American contingent in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and give a long look to the Euros in the Juvenile Turf.
To me, there’s no strong signal in the Juvenile dirt races. You will notice, however, the last time the Juvenile Fillies was won by a horse not based on the East Coast was 2016. The addition of a highly touted Japanese runner might put that streak in jeopardy this year.
Trainer trends can be helpful as well. Before the 2022 Breeders’ Cup, it seemed like Aidan O’Brien was gaining a reputation for being a money burner when shipping to the US. Opposing him during the last two ‘Cups, specifically on Friday, would have been unwise, to say the least. He has won the previous two Juvenile Turf races and again holds a strong hand.
Similarly, Todd Pletcher will be looking for his third consecutive Juvenile win. He will need to play upsetter this year, as several others have runners that are more highly regarded at this point.
Looking at the trainers with wins since 2017 (in Juvenile races), you notice several consistently show up. In fact, a handful of trainers have really owned the Juvenile races. Six trainers have three or more wins in that timeframe, and collectively, they account for 19 of 34 winners - And what do you know, they appear loaded again.
The one race that the usual suspects don’t dominate is the Juvenile Fillies. While it looks like Brad Cox will saddle an undefeated, post-time favorite, others can surely contend.
Moving to Saturday’s races (note that not all of these have traditionally been Saturday races), there are a few valuable trends to highlight.
First, North American-based horses have gone 0/12 in two-turn turf races over the past four years. They’ve been dominated in the Turf for the past decade and this doesn’t look like the year that will change that trend.
The Euros have been beatable in the Mile when held in Southern California.
All of those currently at the top of the market are International runners. At the time of this writing, CARL SPACKLER and MORE THAN LOOKS are 12-1 and 16-1 offshore, respectively. I have plenty of work to do on the International contingent in this race, but those odds suggest one of two things. Either there is tremendous value to be had siding with the US runners in the Mile this year, or there are some absolute monsters heading to Del Mar.
Two final comments before moving on.
The horse of my lifetime, Flightline, is the only West Coast-based horse to have won a Breeders’ Cup race in the past two years.
The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Del Mar, Japan put the racing world on notice. At the same time, they’ve been shut out for the past two years (at least in the Breeders’ Cup). I expect that to change in a big way this year.
Look at the trainer trends for Saturday races over the past four runnings, and you’ll see a few names several times. Brad Cox, Aidan O’Brien, and Charly Appleby have accounted for 13 of the 36 possible winners in that span. This remarkable stat is more impressive, considering they weren’t collectively represented by a runner in every race.
Additionally, Appleby has gone 5/6 when you look at the last three editions of the Mile and Turf. And it seems like he’ll be giving a leg up on the favorite in both races this year. Incredible.
I’m not sure there’s any signal in the trainer view when isolated to those run in Southern California, outside of the aforementioned Appleby domination. But maybe that is the signal? Both times the Breeders’ Cup was hosted by Del Mar, the races for older horses were won by a variety of conditioners.
And, intuitively, that has led to some decent prices:
Ce Ce - $14.40
Aloha West - $24.60
Marche Lorraine (JPN) - $101.80
Yibir (GB) - $19
Stormy Liberal - $62.40
Bar of Gold - $135.40
Wuheida (GB) - $24.40
Talismanic (GB) - $30.20
While putting this together, it occurred to me that both winners of the Classic, when run at Del Mar, went gate to wire (Gun Runner and Knicks Go). That got me thinking.
The table above represents the position (in terms of lengths back) of the winner at the point of first call. What can be made of this? Probably not a lot, as it represents four different racing days. Even when they exist, biases can come and go within a card. That said, it seems pretty clear to me that stretch runners win two-turn turf races at Del Mar.
I will note that the Filly & Mare Turf (ran at 9F) is the one spot (2-turn turf races) where you want to be prominent throughout—maybe owing to the configuration. Regardless of the reason, I’ll be looking for runners with tactical speed, ideally drawn on the inside half of the field.
All in all, not much can be learned from that specific analysis…
Still, I hope you’ve found the overall report valuable. Again, it’s meant to serve as a starting point from which you can expand or narrow your focus in a few of the races.
So much more to come!
This is great
Great content. I couldn't find an author's name on this but whoever did it, I appreciate the illuminating analysis.