2023 Breeders' Cup Trend Report
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This is the fourth edition of the Breeders’ Cup Trend Report.
Many of the concepts are still applicable, so it might be worthwhile to check out the 2020 - 2021 - 2022 versions.
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I am a visual learner, and for years, I’ve played around with new ways to explore horse racing data. Regarding the Breeders’ Cup, I started tracking trends of where the winners were stabled. Eventually, I layered in trainers to see if there was any signal in the outcomes.
My approach and the tables below are pretty straightforward. I use conditional formatting to help me visualize whether winners of a particular race were stabled in the East, West, or Europe (or Japan!). Perhaps you think this is oversimplifying, but I’d suggest this be used as a starting point for deeper analysis.
I’ll try to explain how I use these tables to inform my analysis. And it should go without saying, but nothing here represents absolutes. Also, the focus here is on the winner, so even the strongest trends may not be fully useful for structuring vertical wagers.
It’s been a few years since the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita. And a lot has changed in the world of horse racing since that time. I was torn on whether to look for trends more broadly by expanding to Southern California host tracks. Ultimately, I landed somewhere in the middle for my analysis.
For Turf races, I think viewing Del Mar and Santa Anita as a circuit makes sense. International horses are shipping with the understanding they’ll get quick ground and sharp turns.
But I think there’s some merit to treating the two tracks as separate entities for dirt racing. So, I’ll focus more on trends specific to SA.
***If you double-click any of the images below, you can access a higher-resolution version
I started creating these tables to better understand where the European horses (and specific trainers) have excelled. Before conceding the Turf races to International connections, you must look at the data in the context of specific turf races. That is, clearly, the European Juvenile Turf runners have a strong record. Still, the Juvenile Fillies division has been a different story – partly because of the domination of this division by Chad Brown.
The trends remain pretty consistent if we narrow it to the Southern California Breeders’ Cup circuit. The message seems to be, don’t discount the American contingent in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and give a long look to the Euros in the Juvenile Turf. That said, the American runners in either division look to be a cut below those rumored to be coming over from Europe.
To me, there’s no strong signal in the Juvenile dirt races. Unless you want to talk about price. The last five Juvenile winners, when held at Santa Anita, are Storm the Court ($93.80), Classic Empire ($11.00), Texas Red ($29.80), New Year’s Day ($23.00) and Shanghai Bobby ($4.60). Except for 2019, the post-time favorite was in the exacta the other four times. So, demand value on the win end.
Trainer trends can be helpful as well. However, Friday’s races don’t appear to have any strong signal beyond Wesley Ward’s noted success in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, regardless of venue.
I expect Prince of Monaco to be the post-time favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Baffert has won the race five times. Two of those winners, Midshipman and Game Winner, won the G1 Del Mar Futurity, like Prince of Monaco. But both of those runners also started in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita. Baffert has won the Del Mar Futurity a record 17 times, but this specific double is one he’s yet to pull off.
Also, if you look at the column for the Juvenile Fillies race, you’ll notice a lot of white boxes. This is a race that the usual suspects don’t dominate. Sure, they’re all familiar names and even a few Hall of Famers, but they aren’t trainers that win multiple Breeders’ Cup races yearly. Richard Mandella can be found in this column. He won the race in 2012 with Beholder, and her filly, Tamara, might be one of the heaviest favorites of the weekend.
Moving to Saturday’s races (note that not all of these have traditionally been Saturday races), there are a few valuable trends to highlight.
First, North American-based horses are 0/9 in two-turn turf races over the past three years. They’ve been dominated in the Turf, but it’s worth noting the American runners stole the Mile and Turf in 2019 at Santa Anita. This year, Up to the Mark looks like a serious contender, but the waters will be a lot deeper out west.
The Euros have been beatable in the Mile when held in Southern California. If you throw out the Wise Dan victories, things can get interesting in the Mile.
2014 - Karakontie wins ($62) with Toronado off the board as the favorite
2016 - Tourist wins ($27) with Limato off the board as the favorite
Both World Approval and Uni were heavily backed for their wins, indicating relatively weaker fields or strong form that doesn’t seem to exist for the current home team.
All of those currently at the top of the market are International runners, and if Songline shows up here, I think they’re all running for second. This is a great illustration of these trends needing to be adequately contextualized. Meaning, this year, there are half a dozen horses pointed to the Mile that are lengths better than our stateside turf milers.
Look at the trainer trends for Saturday races over the past three runnings, and you’ll see a few names several times. Brad Cox, Aidan O’Brien, and Charly Appleby have accounted for 10 of the 27 possible winners in that span. This remarkable stat is more impressive, considering they weren’t collectively represented by a runner in every race.
I’m not sure there’s any signal in the trainer view when isolated to those run in Southern California. Chad Brown has a solid record out West. And the Distaff and Dirt Mile are two more examples of divisions that aren’t “owned” by a handful of trainers.
Found very interesting and will add to my betting structure narrative. Thanks for the review.