2023 Kentucky Derby Speed Figure Heat Map
Tyler Whisman
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Kentucky Derby Figure Heat Map - Tyler Whisman
The first article I ever published with ITM was the 2019 Kentucky Derby Speed Figure Heat Map. It’s worth reading for some historical perspective on how I’ve used these heat maps. And here’s the 2022 version.
TL;DR - I take a look at four popular speed figure products and create a visual that provides a way to quickly see which horses are fastest among the different methodologies. Typically, I chart the best figure and last figure. Often, those are the same, but not always.
With the help of some conditional formatting, the basic gist is that green (80th percentile) is good and red (20th percentile) is bad or in this case faster and slower, respectively. White, as you might have guessed, is in the middle (50th percentile).
Recently, I’ve added a couple of pace elements because it’s become a bigger focus of my overall handicapping approach in the last few years. And no race has more pace-related scrutiny than the Kentucky Derby!
I’ll share more in the coming days on my pace thoughts using our new ThoroPACE Analytics tools. But, at first glance, the draw figures to have increased the likely pace (most speed types are inside).
So, here’s what we have for the 2023 running…