ITM Plus Kentucky Derby coverage has officially started! There will be several emails between now and Derby Day.
As a reminder, you can always access the archives by visiting our Substack Homepage.
For our ITM Plus Subscribers, here’s a reminder of what to expect over the week:
ITM Picks Grid for Oaks and Derby Day Stakes - PTF, JK, Nick Tammaro, etc.
Wagering Strategy considerations for three different budgets - $250, $500, $1,000 - 2022 Version
Three (or more) Exclusive ITM Plus Podcasts from the options below:
JK Pick 5 Analysis for Kentucky Derby Day
Kentucky Derby Vertical (Trifecta and Superfecta) Strategies - 2022 Version
Kentucky Derby Day Early Pick 5 Analysis
Kentucky Oaks / Derby Two Day Pick 6 Analysis - 2022 Version
Two Day Pick 3 Strategy from Drew Coatney (2022 BCBC Champion)
Frank Scatoni Kentucky Derby Pick 4 Matrix - 2022 Version
Ask Me Anything Show - Chance to ask the ITM Team questions:
We will prioritize ITM Plus Subscriber questions and answer in a podcast
Notes from the Final Answers and Pro Players Roundtable Show
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Have suggestions? Reply to this email and we’ll try to add to the list!
Kentucky Derby Figure Heat Map - Tyler Whisman
The first article I ever published with ITM was the 2019 Kentucky Derby Speed Figure Heat Map. It’s worth reading for some historical perspective on how I’ve used these heat maps. And here’s the 2022 version.
TL;DR - I take a look at four popular speed figure products and create a visual that provides a way to quickly see which horses are fastest among the different methodologies. Typically, I chart the best figure and last figure. Often, those are the same, but not always.
With the help of some conditional formatting, the basic gist is that green (80th percentile) is good and red (20th percentile) is bad or in this case faster and slower, respectively. White, as you might have guessed, is in the middle (50th percentile).
Recently, I’ve added a couple of pace elements because it’s become a bigger focus of my overall handicapping approach in the last few years. And no race has more pace-related scrutiny than the Kentucky Derby!
I’ll share more in the coming days on my pace thoughts using our new ThoroPACE Analytics tools. But, at first glance, the draw figures to have increased the likely pace (most speed types are inside).
So, here’s what we have for the 2023 running…