Kentucky Derby Pick 4 Matrix
Frank R. Scatoni
NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks!
INTRO
It’s Derby Day! Enough said. So let’s look at the Pick 4 that ends with the Kentucky Derby (G1) itself: an awesome sequence that features four graded-stakes, including three Grade 1s!
LEG 1 (CD R9):
We start this Pick 4 with what might be the toughest race in the sequence: the $500K American Turf (G2), an 8.5-furlong turf affair for 3-year-olds only. Several of these have taken turns beating each other—so who will get the W today or will it be a new face in the crowd?
#1 SMOKIN’ T (15/1) gets a positive jock upgrade and gets to save all the ground today, so he can easily turn the tables on the two who just beat him—but will it be enough to beat the others? He’s not impossible and the price is right, but he will need a career best—but, gosh darn, he looks great on OptixPLOT as a big square right in the middle of the graph. GRADE: B.
#2 MAIN EVENT (5/1) made an easy lead and never looked back last time when beating a few of these as the 2/1 favorite. He’s yet to run a bad race since hopping on turf, but he won’t have things his own way this time, so let’s see if he can earn it in this competitive field. GRADE: C.
#3 RED RUN (15/1) looked good winning the Texas Turf Mile at Sam Houston at 5/1, but he needed some time off after that and then came back and ran a dud in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on the synth at Turfway Park. Surely he’ll appreciate a return to the lawn, but he faces a solid group of turfers today. GRADE: C.
#4 RED DANGER (10/1) has been vexing, since he has ability, but he hasn’t been ridden optimally the last three times. Maybe that was because he drew the outside post three races in a row. He now gets a much better draw, and if he can run back to his win in the Pulpit to close out last year, he could easily turn the tables on a few of these who recently have him on form. GRADE: B.
#5 BALNIKHOV (IRE) (5/1) almost made his U.S. debut a winning won when he just missed in the Singletary at Santa Anita, losing by a nose. His overseas form is pretty solid, and I think it’s telling that D’Amato bothers to ship this one to Churchill Downs to face the likes of these—but how will his form translate against some quality East Coasters? GRADE: C.
#6 PORTFOLIO COMPANY (9/2) has tactical speed, so you can be assured that he’ll get a good forwardly placed trip, but it should be noted that he lacked the necessary oomph in graded-stakes races last year—something that is uncharacteristic of Chad Brown runners. Still, he figures to show up today, and if he’s matured at all, he could prove very tough while getting a perfect trip. GRADE: A.
#7 SY DOG (7/2) is a perfect 3-for-3, including a nice stakes win in the Transylvania (G3), where he closed strongly into a slow pace to get up for the win. He’s a legitimate contender and the deserving favorite. The only knock here is the likely short price. GRADE: A.
#8 ROYAL SPIRIT (15/1) has traded decisions with a few of these, so you can draw a line through his try in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), where he ended up widest despite breaking from the one-hole in that synth affair. He figures to run much better today, but he will have to show more oomph in the lane. GRADE: C.
#9 STOLEN BASE (12/1) has a decent late kick, but this closer will be at the mercy of pace and trip. At least he gets Prat to do the steering, and these two teamed up for a solid second-place finish in the Bourbon (G2) last year at 7/1. This guy should be fit and ready to explode late, coming out of a longer synth race, but he’ll need a lot of things to go his way. At least the price will be right. GRADE: A.
#10 COINAGE (6/1) has traded decisions with a few of these, so he’s a fit right back even though he gave up the ghost fairly easily last time in the Transylvania (G3). I’m expecting a similar result today, since he’ll have to use some of his tactical speed to gain position early—and he’s probably also looking at a wide journey from out here. GRADE: C.
#11 DOWAGIAC CHIEF (10/1) has speed, and he’ll be forced to use it from out here, and that’s going to be an issue for a horse who was beaten by a few of these three back at Sam Houston. He’ll be in contention turning for home—and he has races that are certainly fast enough to win this—but I suspect someone will outkick him late. GRADE: C.
LEG 2 (CD R10):
Today’s second leg is the $750K Churchill Downs, a 7-furlong main-track affair for some very talented sprinters, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) champion.
#1 ALOHA WEST (7/2), the aforementioned 2021 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) champ, usually shows up for work, but there are two knocks: the worst race of his life came in a stakes race going 7-furlongs here at Churchill Downs last summer—and he’ll have to do his bidding from the dreaded rail. Is he talented enough to overcome those hurdles? Absolutely. But at 7/2, I’m inclined to use him more for underneath. GRADE: C.
#2 LONG RANGE TODDY (30/1) ran an even second last time in the Commonwealth (G3), a useful prep for this. Still, he’ll need a major step forward today to beat the best in here, and I’m not really seeing him running a career-best today. GRADE: X.
#3 JACKIE’S WARRIOR (5/2) flopped in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) last year at fifty-cents on the dollar, but I can forgive that race, since he’s a speed horse who had to race over a very closer-friendly track at Del Mar. He got a fine tune-up for this last time when easily winning his prep off a November layoff. He should also be able to dictate the pace however he sees fit as the only real confirmed frontrunner in the field. GRADE: A.
#4 SIR ALFRED JAMES (30/1) has done decent work at 7-furlongs, and he should be fit cutting back from a mile turf race—but he looks outclassed against some really nice graded-stakes sprinters. GRADE: X.
#5 REINVESTMENT RISK (7/2) is a lightly raced 4-year-old who still has some upside, so you can expect him to run a bang-up race today while making the third start of his form cycle and getting off the rail. He might have to be used a bit early to keep Jackie’s Warrior honest, since he’s not naturally fast enough to keep up with that foe—but at least you know he was competitive against that runner last year, and he looks to be in fine fettle nowadays. GRADE: B.
#6 PREVALENCE (6/1) looked good beating a few of these in the Commonwealth (G3) last time at today’s distance—but he was primed for that race, cutting back from a nice one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park, so it’s no surprise he fired big. He’s in the best form of his life, but it should be noted that Jackie’s Warrior destroyed him last year. GRADE: X.
#7 MIND CONTROL (5/1), the first Pletcher entrant, attended a very slow pace in the Carter (G1) last time, but he yielded and finished third after having some noteworthy traffic trouble. He’ll need to do a lot better today, but he is making the second start of his form cycle, and if he can run back to his Parx Dirt Mile race, he would be fast enough to win this—but I can see him gunning hard to keep up with Jackie’s Warrior, and that’s sure to take the starch out of him late. GRADE: X.
#8 CEZANNE (4/1), the second Pletcher runner, makes his first start for that barn after exiting the Baffert barn—and remember how good Life is Good became under similar circumstances. On the West Coast, this guy was running some big races, so his very best could give Jackie’s Warrior everything he can handle—and this guy should be fit on the cutback from that mile race at Oaklawn Park. That said, he’ll need a career-best to get the W today. GRADE: B.
LEG 3 (CD R11):
Today’s third leg is the prestigious $1 million Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1), which is contested at 9-furlongs on the lawn. Chad Brown has three—will one of them get the glory? Probably!
#1 IVAR (BRZ) (4/1) is a very honest horse who has earned close to $1 million by always showing up for business. That said, his best work has come going a mile, and it should be noted that this late runner was 5/1 in this race last year while coming off a similar layoff, and he could only manage sixth (mostly due to having zero pace to close into). He’ll get a more honest pace today, so he could easily crack the trifecta while also competing for the win, but he is at the mercy of pace and trip. GRADE: B.
#2 BIZZEE CHANNEL (30/1) came off an October layoff to beat 11 other classified-allowance foes last time going 8.5-furlongs on a good Keeneland turf course a few weeks ago. It was a sharp performance that should set him up well for this race—but is he good enough? He’s a Grade 3 winner who was 13/1 in his most recent Grade 1 try, and he ran to those odds. He is tactical, so he should get a good trip, but I’m not sure if he’ll show the requisite oomph late to get the W against these types. GRADE: X.
#3 PUBLIC SECTOR (GB) (5/1), the first of three Chad Brown entrants, is coming off a November layoff, so you have to love the confidence that Brown is showing today by entering him in a Grade 1 to make his 4-year-old seasonal debut. Before he hit the shelf, he finished fourth in the Hollywood Derby (G1) as the 19/10 favorite, but he had zero pace to close into, so I’m not too fussed about that defeat. He should get something to run at today thanks to one of his stablemates, so I expect this guy to show up with a big performance today. GRADE: A.
#4 TRIBHUVAN (FR) (5/1), the second Brown runner, is tactical, but his strongest races have come on the front end, so I have to think that Franco will be aggressive here, especially since his stablemates like to come from off the pace. He’s certainly capable of getting a victory, since he has run well in Grade 1s before (including a sharp wire win in the United Nations last year), but I think someone will get the better of him today. GRADE: B.
#5 MIRA MISSION (10/1) did good work at Gulfstream against weaker foes before trying tough milers in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland last time when he ran a better-than-looked fifth at 24/1. He seems pretty versatile and has a win at today’s distance, so he deserves to be in this spot—but will he be good enough to turn the tables on a few who have already beaten him? GRADE: C.
#6 SHIRL’S SPEIGHT (3/1) has won three in a row, including a very nice victory in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1), where he closed like a freight train despite having no pace to run at. He came home in under 22-seconds, which is terrific, so even though he’s never been this far before, that kind of late kick
bodes well for success at this distance. That said, do you want to take him as the favorite here, since he’s never actually been this far? GRADE: B.
#7 CAVALRY CHARGE (12/1) looked good two back when winning a Grade 3 at the Fair Grounds at today’s distance, but he couldn’t step up and beat slightly better foes in his next start. The waters get even deeper today. GRADE: X.
#8 ADHAMO (IRE) (9/2), the final Brown entrant, lagged behind the field back in February in a Grade 3 at the Fair Grounds, but he left himself with too much to do, closing resolutely to finish second. Before that, he had respectable French form, so there is still room for improvement for this 4-year-old, especially since he gets the services of Prat today, and that jock does excellent work when riding for Mr. Brown. You can expect a more aggressive ride, and don’t be shocked if this one ran a big one today. GRADE: A.
#9 KENTUCKY GHOST (20/1) is coming off an October layoff after failing to beat weaker foes in the Sycamore (G3) while going longer. He does have a win here at Churchill Downs while going today’s distance, so perhaps he can build off that—but this 5-year-old looks a decided cut below the best turf horses in here (though I will say that Vickie Oliver does a fine job with limited stock and that this one looks pretty solid on OptixPLOT, for what it’s worth). GRADE: X.
#10 SANTIN (6/1) is a lightly raced 4-year-old who has plenty of upside, since I was really impressed by his second-place finish in the Hollywood Derby (G1) last year, when he flew home to just miss despite having no pace to close into. His two races this year were just okay, but he’s now making the third start of his form cycle while adding blinkers for the first time. He’ll have to work out a trip from the outside, but I suspect we are about to witness a career-best from this guy. GRADE: B.
LEG 4 (CD R12):
We close out today’s Pick 4 with the most ballyhooed race of the year, the $3 million Kentucky Derby (G1) presented by Woodford Reserve—a 10-furlong main-track affair for the best 3-year-olds in the country (and arguably the world!). It’s a really competitive race, but one thing is for certain: Baffert will not be winning this year’s renewal of this classic!
#1 MO DONEGAL (10/1) showed off a very strong late kick when capturing the Wood Memorial (G2) in his tune-up for this. He’s in good hands with Pletcher, and he sports the strongest final quarter in the race, so the added distance won’t be an issue. That said, he drew the short straw and is buried down at the rail, so Irad Ortiz, Jr., will have to work out a trip in this full field. He’s good enough to win, but there is little room for error. GRADE: C.
#2 HAPPY JACK (30/1) broke his maiden at 6-furlongs, and ever since he started facing winners around two turns, he’s been beaten by double-digit odds. He’ll need to do a lot better, but at least O’Neill has had success in this race and knows how to win the Derby (G1) if you’re a believer. GRADE: X.
#3 EPICENTER (7/2) has tactical speed, so Rosario will have to call on that speed to gain good position from this inside post—and that is likely to take its toll late on a horse who is listed as the second choice on the morning-line. Is he good enough to win? Sure. He has a win here at Churchill, and he’s beaten a few of these, so I’m not going to throw the baby out with the bathwater, but I prefer others for the top spot. GRADE: B.
#4 SUMMER IS TOMORROW (30/1) ran second in the UAE Derby (G2) but was overtaken by one of today’s foes, so he’ll need to do a lot better. Note that his two wins overseas came on the lead, and who knows if he’s fast enough to keep up with U.S. horses in here. GRADE: X.
#5 SMILE HAPPY (20/1), the first McPeek runner, gets wise-guy consideration in here, since he has a win over this track and a decent late kick with a jock who has an uncanny knack of finding the shortest way around the track during crunch time. He’ll have to turn the tables on the two who just beat him, but I think that’s eminently possible. GRADE: A.
#6 MESSIER (8/1), the first Yakteen trainee, would probably be close to listed favoritism if he were still trained by Baffert, so you have to give him a good look at 8/1 in here. He was always the boss hoss in the Baffert barn, so I’m willing to forgive his defeat in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) when he was easily run down by his stablemate. This guy had to do the dirty work that day, while today he can be a little more relaxed under Johnny V. GRADE: B.
#7 CROWN PRIDE (JPN) (20/1) won the UAE Derby (G2) in preparation for this, beating 15 other horses in the process. I’ve never been a fan of that race, but it should be noted that the Japanese horses have had a strong run of late here in the States, with two victories in Breeders’ Cup races, so perhaps this Japanese-bred and Japanese-based runner can surprise today. The fact that he shipped to Meydan and won means he can travel well also. GRADE: C.
#8 CHARGE IT (20/1), the second Pletcher entrant, ran an okay second in the Florida Derby (G1) after hitting the gate and lugging in in the stretch while unable to outfinish White Abarrio. He can do better against that foe today, since this guy is very lightly raced and looks like a horse who can get better with more experience and with more ground. That said, I’m not really a fan of Gulfstream shippers in this race (or really anywhere outside of South Florida), so we’ll see how this guy does today. GRADE: C.
#9 TIZ THE BOMB (30/1), the second McPeek, has done fine work on synth and turf, but his dirt races are nothing to write home about, so I’m dubious of his chances to get the W today. On the plus side, he’s a grinder who could run on for a small slice if the race falls apart. GRADE: X.
#10 ZANDON (3/1) is really coming into his own, as evidenced by his dominating victory in the Blue Grass (G1) last time in preparation for this. He should move forward again today in his third start off the bench, and there aren’t too many trainers who can get a horse to finish as strongly as Chad Brown can. You also know that Prat will have this guy where he needs to be. GRADE: A.
#11 PIONEER OF MEDINA (30/1), the third Pletcher runner, removes the hood after a few blah efforts against several of these. He got good stalking trips and failed to kick on when the real running started. He’ll need to do a lot better today, but perhaps the equipment change can help shake things up. GRADE: X.
#12 TAIBA (12/1), the second Yakteen charge, looked very good when winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in just his second career start, beating his much ballyhooed stablemate in the process. That said, he got a perfect trip and set-up, and he’ll really have to overcome a lot today to get the victory in just his third career start. Clearly there is ability here, but I have to let him beat me today. GRADE: X.
#13 SIMPLIFICATION (20/1) was sent off as the 2/1 favorite in the Florida Derby (G1), but he was overtaken by two others after attending a decent early pace. He can do better with a more patient ride, and I think he’ll get that today since he drew a good post. That said, they staggered home in that Gulfstream race, and I’m not really crazy about anyone coming from there in here. GRADE: X.
#14 BARBER ROAD (30/1) seems like a superfecta player’s dream: an off-the-pace grinder who has done really well to pick up small slices against the best of his division. He’ll likely need a pace collapse for the win, but you can slot him in underneath at a big price. GRADE: X.
#15 WHITE ABARRIO (10/1) looked good winning the Florida Derby (G1), but they came home really slowly in that race, so I’m not sure how good of a race it will turn out to be. Still, this guy always seems to show up, and it’s hard to knock a horse who has only one defeat in five tries—but note that that one defeat came in his only race outside of Gulfstream Park: a third-place finish here at Churchill Downs. There is ability here, but I have to side against. GRADE: X.
#16 CYBERKNIFE (20/1) is the top pick in here, a Brad Cox trainee who is bred to win the Derby and who is steadily improving after two nice victories, including a win in the Arkansas Derby (G1) last time. He tracked early, moved into a quick pace, and easily held sway. I can see him stepping forward big time off that. GRADE: A.
#17 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (30/1) looked good at Tampa when winning two in a row, but he was exposed after that when setting the pace and wilting in the Florida Derby (G1). He’ll need to do a lot better today, and note that Irad Ortiz, Jr., bails. GRADE: X.
#18 TAWNY PORT (30/1), the second Cox trainee, grinded away to win the Lexington (G3) at 5/1. It was a decent effort, but note that he was 24/1 against a few of these in the Risen Star (G2) and could only manage fifth (though with some trouble). Maybe he can grind away for a small slice. GRADE: X.
#19 ZOZOS (20/1), the third Cox entrant, has tactical speed, so I suspect he’ll be gunned hard to angle over and gain position—but he couldn’t wire them in the Louisiana Derby (G2), and he’s got a much tougher task today as a horse who isn’t exactly bred to go this far. I trust Cox, but this guy seems like a pace factor to me. GRADE: X.
#20 ETHEREAL ROAD (30/1) is eligible for an N1X, so he seems overmatched today, especially since a few of these have recently beaten him. Good luck working out a trip from all the way out here as well. On the plus side, this ain’t Lukas’ first rodeo. GRADE: X.
#21 RICH STRIKE (30/1) (AE) has one win: a $30K maiden-claimer, so I’m having a hard time seeing this one-paced grinder (who seems better on synth) getting the money today. GRADE: X.
#22 RATTLE N ROLL (30/1) (AE) takes off the hood after a failed experiment last time. His races before that failure, however, aren’t good enough anyway, so he’ll really need to step forward today, especially since he’s a deep closer who will need a lot of help from a pace perspective. That said, he is a Grade 1 winner (as a juvenile), so perhaps there is still room for improvement here. GRADE: X.
KENTUCKY DERBY DAY P4 MATRIX (CD9 through CD12)
Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the Matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets, as appropriate!
