The Crossover - Value in a Niche Market?
Spot plays for sports and horse racing
We’re back for the second edition of The Crossover. Thank you for the positive feedback, and keep it coming if you like this!
As a reminder, the intent is to examine what’s available and identify spots that offer some value. (Since value can be subjective, please spare me your comments).
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Review of Last Week:
✅ Northwestern +3.5: -118
❌ Hajj-Malik Williams - Anytime TD: -130
⊝ 7 - BOOGIE WOOGIE GAL to Win at 6/5 or Higher (NO BET - went off at 3/5)
✅ Miami Dolphins -3 + ❌ Kansas Chiefs -3 + ✅ Cincinnati Bengals -3
❌ Three Team Teaser Parlay = +329
It was a mixed but down week. Our angle on Northwestern paid off, with the home underdog's outright win. Several games tomorrow fit the pattern, but I’ll tread lightly on a few of them.
UNLV struggled throughout, and that was a bad read.
The horse racing play was a No Bet and should provide a good lesson on setting Fair Odds.
The NFL plays were interesting in that two covered and were very lucky to do so. Meanwhile, the Chiefs continued to find a way to win and not cover. They’re 0-7 ATS and 6-1 SU in their last seven games. That’s incredible.
🏀 12/14 - Louisville at #5 Kentucky - 5:15 PM ET
Going into Thanksgiving weekend, this game looked like it’d be a solid edition of one of the best college basketball rivalries in the country. A lot has changed in the past two weeks.
Louisville played well in the Battle 4 Atlantis. They lost in the Championship game and dropped two more before righting the ship earlier this week against UTEP.
Kentucky now has a blemish on their record as they found a way to lose to Clemson. That said, they overcame a 16-point halftime deficit to beat a solid Gonzaga team in Seattle. But the bigger story is a pair of injuries. Kerr will be out for several weeks after suffering a Jones fracture, and Lamont Butler has missed some time. Butler is questionable to play on Saturday. Perhaps those injuries explain the loss of offensive mojo in recent games?
Having Butler back will be important for Kentucky, as Chucky Hepburn will be a disruptor on the defensive end for the Cards.
Kentucky’s performance against Colgate earlier this week was a possible cause for concern, at least on the surface. However, it also seemed like an obvious letdown spot. They had just returned home from the West Coast with an impressive comeback win against a ranked opponent. And Saturday’s rivalry game was looming. Importantly, Brea was 5-8 from 3PT and that bodes well for tomorrow’s matchup.
In the modern era, first-year Louisville coaches are 1-4 in the game against Kentucky. And Mark Pope certainly knows the importance of this game to the UK fanbase. I think he will have the team focused. I expect them to win in Rupp Arena tomorrow afternoon.
The question is, how much will the Cats win by? That largely depends on Lamont Butler’s status. At the time of writing, the line sits at UK -10.5 and I think that assumes Butler is limited or out. Which is another way of saying, it likely moves towards Kentucky even more on any positive news on Butler. I think he plays and view -10.5 as the side I’d back, with the hope that Butler is a go.
Since there are too many variables, it’s not a great spot, at this time. Given the proportion of our audience that lives in the Bluegrass state, I felt obligated to share some thoughts.
🏇 12/14 - Fair Grounds - Race 10 - Post Time 6:15 ET
2 - GEAUX SUGAR 8/1 ML
Let me start by saying that Louisiana-bred racing at Fair Grounds in the middle of December is not my usual area of expertise. That said, my handicapping process these days starts with identifying pace angles that might warrant a closer look. And this weekend, that process led me to Bayou country.
2 - Geaux Sugar is sitting at 8/1 on the Morning Line and looks like another example of “controlling speed.” Any scratches would increase the conviction but likely hurt the price.
While I don’t love the post (or the weight), this gelding is the speed of the speed and has been ultra-consistent since joining the Keith Bourgeois barn.
11 - Jack Hammer looks to be training forwardly, but the barn is cold, and he flopped in a similar return spot last November.
Hopefully, the Morning Line holds. I will look to make a win bet at 6/1 or better and will play a few backup exactas keying 2 - Geaux Sugar in the place position.
*I wanted to find a play at Turfway Park since they have a few nice-looking stakes races on Saturday, but it isn’t easy to gauge the pace based on their field sizes. When projecting a fast pace, scratches can quickly change the complexion, especially if you like stretch runners. I’ll mention a couple of spots, but they won’t be official selections.
Turfway Park Race 6: A Grade 1 winner rarely comes to Turfway Park, so that’s nice to see and speaks to how things have changed in the past few years in Florence, KY. A fast pace is projected, but most of the speed comes from the trio of outside horses (two on the AE list). Scratches could change the pace dynamic significantly. As a result, this could go two ways. On the one hand, 13 - TREMOR is likely the fastest early and exits two races where the pace compromised his chances. He could represent value underneath depending on how many scratches and who scratches. However, if the speed stays in the race, 1 - HUSH OF A STORM will be the beneficiary. Now in the Cox stable, he loves TP and closed into a very slow pace last out.
Turfway Park Race 8: 12 D DAY REUNION is facing winners for the first time and probably isn’t ideally drawn. That said, he’s 30-1 on the Morning Line and exits two races where he’s run well despite being against the flow. Sanjur has been serviceable at the meet, and this relatively new gelding has a pretty solid pedigree. I’m not sure he’s good enough to win, but he could offer some value underneath vertical wagers.
🏈 12/15 - First TD Scorer - 1PM ET
The Player Props market continues to gain traction. It’s a natural extension of Fantasy Sports, and a whole host of tools are available to help inform your analysis.
The Anytime TD market is one of the more popular pools within the Props market. These are difficult, and typically, we’re only offered a one-sided wagers (can’t bet “No TD” for players, in most cases). While you can try to exploit favorable matchups, in many cases, the TD markets have a disadvantageous hold even when you’re right.
I’ve been trying to develop some type of analytical system to identify what I feel are value plays. Where I’ve landed is the First TD Scorer market - Which, I realize, makes something that’s inherently difficult even harder.
I’m sharing my thought process with you, and I’d love your input on whether you think I’m approaching this wrong.
The variables that I’m taking into consideration are the following:
% a player scores his team’s first TD (looking at season to date)
Estimated % that his team scores the first TD in this game
The first criteria is straightforward, but the second requires a few elements to arrive at a semi-objective number.
Admittedly, some of this market is determined by a coin toss. But, one way to potentially negate that risk is by looking at what teams do on their first Offensive Drive.
So I look at the team of the player of interest and the opponent. I’m looking for teams where their First Offensive Drive TD % is higher than their opponent's. There are a few teams that, through 13 games, have failed to score an opening drive TD. As a result, the coin toss risk is nearly eliminated, in some cases. From there, I take a look at the overall matchup and assign a probability that the team scores first (THIS IS SUBJECTIVE).
While I could look at the % the team has scored the First TD of the game, that’s not accounting for the opponent. I’m trying to adjust for that.
One thing to remember is that the TD doesn’t need to be scored on the first drive, but it’s an input that I think is highly relevant. If I multiply these two variables, I get an estimate of the implied probability.
With that, let’s take a look at some data:
The list above has a few players that I want to highlight. These players score the first TD for their respective teams at a very high clip. All of these teams, with the exception of the Commanders, do, in fact, score the first TD in their games at a high rate. As you can see, I try to be conservative with my estimates for the team to score first. This week, I’ve been aggressive with the commanders as they’re coming off a buy, and the Saints will have a backup QB under center.
Using my system, David Montgomery has a projected 30% chance to score the game’s first TD on Sunday. Does that mean he’s a bet? Not so fast.
In this view, I’ve inserted the best available odds at the time of writing and converted those to implied probabilities.
From there, it’s easy to see where the value exists. All of these have an estimated probability higher than the implied probability from the available odds. However, this is the ultimate plinko market. So this doesn’t always trigger a bet.
Regarding bankroll management, I would invest up to ONE UNIT in this market. I’d make Four bets, splitting them by rough percentages as follows:
Jordan Addison First TD Scorer +900 (30%)
Mike Evans First TD Scorer +950 (30%)
Marvin Harrison Jr. First TD Scorer +900 (15%)
Brian Robinson Jr. First TD Scorer +470 (25%)
🏈 12/15 - Steelers @ Eagles - 4:25PM ET
I uncovered something that I found unbelievable while looking at the data for the TD markets. As I mentioned before, there are a handful of teams in the NFL that have yet to score a TD on their first possession this season. Given some of the offenses in the league, that’s not all that surprising.
The Steelers and Eagles are, arguably, two of the best teams in the league. But NEITHER TEAM has scored a touchdown on an opening drive. And both teams possess a defensive-minded, establish-the-run approach to their games.
Naturally, that led me to the 1Q Total, which currently sits at 7.5 at most books.
I like the UNDER 7.5 1Q Total -120
Two-Three scores will be needed to go over this total, and since both teams are likely to try and establish the run, there may only be three-four possessions in the quarter.
No bet is a lock, but I feel good about the supporting data in this spot.
I have another play from this game that was informed from this same data. The opening drive for the Steelers has resulted in a FGA over half of the time (54%) - higher than any team in the league. The Eagles' defense is stout, but there’s value in this wager.
I like STEELERS Opening Drive = FGA +330
🏈 12/15 - NFL Parlay - 1PM ET
Cincinnati Bengals -3 and Lions UNDER 54.5
Two Team Teaser Parlay = +205
I’ll keep the analysis brief here. While Cincinnati is up against it to make the playoffs, they’re technically still alive. There’s been some drama in Queen City this week, but ultimately, I think the Bengals offense is the best unit on the field. Distractions aside, the Bengal's offense wants to showcase their weapons and put an exclamation point on their keep Tee Higgins in Cincinnati pleas. For maybe the first time all year, the Bengals Defense might not be the worst unit on the field. The Titans struggled last week against one of the worst defensive units in the league. Tony Pollard will be able to run the ball, but I’m not sure if they can keep up on the scoreboard.
*The Cincinnati secondary, specifically CTB, is full of gamblers. And against Will Levis, that might pay off. It's not an official selection, but it seems plausible that the Cincinnati defense could score this week.
As for the second play, I might be trying to get too cute here. This game features two of the most potent offenses in the league. But 54.5 is a lot of points in a game that matters to both teams. Both coaches must think that the key to victory is running the ball, ideally leading to sustained drives that keep the other team’s offense off the field. As a result, I think this game goes under.
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