The Crossover - Inaugural Edition
Spot Plays - Sports and Horse Racing
A new concept this weekend. The Venn Diagram of sports bettors and horseplayers has a ton of overlap. So why not look at a few spot plays each week that scratch both itches?
I (Tyler) realize this might not be for everyone, so consider this an experiment.
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As I said before, the intent here is to look at what’s available and identify spots that offer some value (Realizing that value is subjective, please spare me your comments on that topic). Let’s jump in to what I’m going to initially brand, The Crossover.
🏈 12/6 - Mountain West Championship Game - 8PM ET
Hajj-Malik Williams - Anytime TD: -130
This is an exciting game with implications for the CFB Playoff and the Heisman Trophy. It is a rematch between Boise St. and UNLV, who played in the dome in Las Vegas in October.
Tonight's game is outdoors on the notorious Blue Turf in the Boise cold. All eyes will be on Ashton Jeanty. He’ll face a stout run defense that kept him in check during the first battle, relatively speaking.
But I’m banking on a nice game from Rebels QB, Hajj-Malik Williams. He and Ricky White should be able to move the ball at will. Williams had an explosive 71-yard run in October and finished with 105 rushing yards. He found the endzone in that game, something he’s done in all but three games this year.
That’s our first spot play. HMW to score a TD.
🏀 12/6 - #19 Illinois at Northwestern - 9PM ET
Northwestern +3.5: -118
A consistently profitable angle in College Basketball, especially in conference games, is to side with unranked home underdogs when playing a ranked opponent (h/t to a longtime friend that’s been using this angle for years).
Not only do they cover at a high rate, but they have a decent straight-up record as well. Good examples from this week include: Clemson over UK (boo), Villanova over UC, and Creighton over Kansas.
I expect Nick Martinelli to have a big game for the Wildcats. They are returning home after a narrow defeat to a solid Iowa team.
Illinois has been off since Thanksgiving day, when they beat the Razorbacks. Sure, it’s a solid win, but Coach Cal has a knack for losing early-season games that he’s expected to win (trust me).
Northwestern has plenty of big men to keep Ivisic in check. An outright upset isn’t impossible if the Illini come out rusty off the break.
🏇 12/7 - Oaklawn Park - Race 1 - Post Time 1:30 ET
7 - BOOGIE WOOGIE GAL to Win at 6/5 or Higher
7 - Boogie Woogie Gal is “controlling speed” and benefits from an outside draw in this 6F sprint.
Trainer Contreras Cipriano has a positive ROI at Oaklawn Park over the past five years (78 / 388 $2.25 ROI) and an impressive record (13/37 $2.56 ROI) if you isolate Maiden Claiming Events. The ROI continues to improve if you focus on Sprints. And gets even better (6/11 $4.98 ROI) when Esquivel is in the saddle.
Contreras is 6/9 in MCL events at Oaklawn when the runners are 2/1 or less. There didn’t seem to be an angle that was anything but positive.
This horse figures to take money, but looks like a solid play at anything better than 6/5.
🏈 12/8 - NFL Three Team Parlay - 1PM ET
Miami Dolphins -3 + Kansas Chiefs -3 + Cincinnati Bengals -3
Three Team Teaser Parlay = +329
Miami has returned to form since Tua’s comeback. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers is focused on renovating his NJ home in between appearances with Pat McAffee. The Jets showed some life last week but still managed to blow a 14-point lead in the second half. The Dolphins take care of business against lesser teams and should easily beat the Jets by a FG or more.
The Chiefs are the luckiest team in the league, and it’s not close. Andy Reid had a couple extra days to prepare for this one, and I expect him (and Spags) to shut down the Chargers ’ run game. Ladd McConkey is questionable, which could be huge. I think the Chiefs come into this one focused and find a way to win. They don’t want any part of traveling to Buffalo in the playoffs.
The Bengals' defense has been atrocious, and they don’t have much (anything?) to play for at this point. Still, as long as Burrow and his offense weapons suit up, this one should get ugly. The handicap here is mostly a negative take on Cooper Rush and the Cowboys’ offense. Burrow will find a way to score.
The final comment here is, assuming the Dolphins and Chiefs take care of business, you’d have a hedgeable position heading into Monday night.
If you’re still reading, I appreciate it! And seriously, if you want me (and others?) to continue this, please let me know. Best of luck!
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