Let’s get started! Fire away with your Breeders’ Cup questions.
Feel free to add your comments and opinions along the way. This is meant to be crowdsourced discussion. We will get started with a question from Twitter.
Darren Sipes - For many horses, there are vast differences between the major figure makers (Timeform, Beyer, BRIS, Thorograph and Ragozin). When encountering this, what do you suggest other than turning to alcohol?
Drew Coatney - FM Turf: how much do you downgrade Mean Mary for being “with” pace flow in small fields in last two starts now faces pressure?
Presumably the pace pressure will come from Rushing Fall and Harvey’s Lil Goil. The former has also been close up to pretty moderate paces. Rushing Fall has been content to sit just off the pace setter (Mean Mary in her last) so I don’t think she’ll be intent on heading Mean Mary. As the ML favorite, it’s hard to think of Rushing Fall as a rabbit. They’ll be making every attempt to win and would probably be content with her trip in the Diana. I’m less confident on the intentions of HLG - they too might be content with a stalking trip. Some of the analysis from John Camardo at Keeneland suggests that speed is under-appreciated by betters in Turf Routes. Mean Mary will not have any issues with the distance while the jury is still out as it relates to Rushing Fall. All that being said, this is far from a two horse race! Audarya shhhh.
Figure making is both a science and an art. If you’re going to refer to multiple figures, it’s important to understand the science aspect of how each figure is created. That’s the first step to explaining some of the differences.
The variation in figures is what can lead to value. So embrace it.
Variance in figures, from my experience, primarily comes from 3 scenarios:
1. Fields with mostly first time starters
2. Races at unique distances on the card (only one two turn dirt race on the card, as an example)
3. Significant weather impact
I personally don’t suggest trying to use a new approach in an event like Breeders’ Cup. So I’d recommend sticking to what you’re used to and have used successfully in the past.
Beyer and BRIS are relatively straight forward. TimeFormUS incorporates pace which can lead to an upgrade or downgrade of final figures. ThoroGraph (my personal preference) factors in ground loss and weight.
The races with the most variance (again my opinion) in figures, assuming the three situations above are not in play, are those with - an extreme pace scenario, weight breaks and horses with significant ground loss.
Matt Miller - In the Classic, how would you allocate your bankroll on win bets if every horse went off at the same odds? Would you play all on Improbable because that has the best value? Or do you see a more likely winner? Or is a second horse worth being allocated some capital?
PTF ANSWER - I honestly think tom’s d'etat and tiz are just as likely so I would look in their directions
Matt Miller - The morning line odds on the Breeders' Cup races were determined in advance of the post position draw. Needless to say, some of those odds would have been very different if the post positions were known in advance. What do you feel are the prime examples?
Making a good ML for all 14 BC races is a huge challenge, but there are some very suspect lines.
Ivar sticks out to me. He's not impossible but shouldn't be the favorite.
With your specific question - Complexity was not helped and Uni, despite style, got a brutal draw. As someone who factors in ground loss, I am always aware of post positions and resulting impact. But in the ITM Premium Package (inthemoneypodcast.com/bc) - John Carmado has some states that make me less skeptical of outside posts in some of the dirt races.
Matt Miller - If you knew for certain that the favorite in every BC race would go off at 5/2, which ones would you plan to bet (regardless of BCBC or cash)? I'm fishing to see who you think is vulnerable and where you see value.
Hard question to answer.
At 5/2, I'm all over Jackie's Warrior - but on Friday, at the expected price - not so much. Same can be said for Monomoy Girl.
Ivar is the ML favorite, but I'm not seeing that at post time - hard pass at 5/2.
Improbable might be fair at that price.
And I'd take a long look at Aunt Pearl at 5/2 - Though I like Editor at Large at a price in that spot.
Drew Coatney - FM sprint: can a front runner win? Are all these extreme pace setters defacto takeout reducers based on Derby Distaff (serengeti empress, gamine, inthemidstofbiz, venetian harbor)?
Personally, I’m a big fan of Speech and will use her prominently. On paper, as your question implies, she should get a setup and have first jump on the likely pacesetters. That said, Serengeti Empress is very likely the “speed of the speed”. While several others have been on the lead in various races, according to TimeFormUS, they simply can’t keep up with SE early - even if they wanted to. For me, I might consider taking a stand with two horses. SE and Speech will allow me to have both pace scenarios covered.
Russ Stover - In the Filly-Mare Turf, do you think there should be a good enough pace for Sistercharlie to have a chance?
Yes, she’s a player for sure. And should get a favorable pace setup (and better distance) relative to her other 2020 races. We will address this with a related question about the same race.
Ken Badaway - Which of the Euros is the most likely winner among the 2 days?
As a group, they’re most likely to win the Turf, but landing on a specific horse is more challenging for me. Put differently, I don’t see a European shipper that I’d be willing to single in multi-race wagers. PTF has a better read on the Euros and might be more confident on runners he's more familiar with.
One year Johnny V. rode a horse in the Distaff that was favored- the horse appeared troubled in the warm-up; the announcers suggested that the horse might be scratched- but it wasn't; the horse virtually walked around the track during the race- why wasn't Johnny V. more heavily criticized? what was the horses name?
Uni made a $100,000 supplemental nomination fee to be in the Breeders' Cup Mile in 2019. When a horse in nominated by way of a supplemental fee is this listed on the racing form? If not how do research this?
There have been multiple references to the draw for post positions potentially impacting a horse's chance of winning. Depending upon the distance, some pundits think it matters, others do not. What is your opinion?
Drew Coatney - FM Turf: how much do you downgrade Mean Mary for being “with” pace flow in small fields in last two starts now faces pressure?
Presumably the pace pressure will come from Rushing Fall and Harvey’s Lil Goil. The former has also been close up to pretty moderate paces. Rushing Fall has been content to sit just off the pace setter (Mean Mary in her last) so I don’t think she’ll be intent on heading Mean Mary. As the ML favorite, it’s hard to think of Rushing Fall as a rabbit. They’ll be making every attempt to win and would probably be content with her trip in the Diana. I’m less confident on the intentions of HLG - they too might be content with a stalking trip. Some of the analysis from John Camardo at Keeneland suggests that speed is under-appreciated by betters in Turf Routes. Mean Mary will not have any issues with the distance while the jury is still out as it relates to Rushing Fall. All that being said, this is far from a two horse race! Audarya shhhh.
Figure making is both a science and an art. If you’re going to refer to multiple figures, it’s important to understand the science aspect of how each figure is created. That’s the first step to explaining some of the differences.
The variation in figures is what can lead to value. So embrace it.
Variance in figures, from my experience, primarily comes from 3 scenarios:
1. Fields with mostly first time starters
2. Races at unique distances on the card (only one two turn dirt race on the card, as an example)
3. Significant weather impact
I personally don’t suggest trying to use a new approach in an event like Breeders’ Cup. So I’d recommend sticking to what you’re used to and have used successfully in the past.
Beyer and BRIS are relatively straight forward. TimeFormUS incorporates pace which can lead to an upgrade or downgrade of final figures. ThoroGraph (my personal preference) factors in ground loss and weight.
The races with the most variance (again my opinion) in figures, assuming the three situations above are not in play, are those with - an extreme pace scenario, weight breaks and horses with significant ground loss.
Thanks to everyone for the questions - We will try this again in the future.
There's still time to access the ITM Breeders' Cup Premium Package - Check it out at https://inthemoneypodcast.com/bc
Matt Miller - In the Classic, how would you allocate your bankroll on win bets if every horse went off at the same odds? Would you play all on Improbable because that has the best value? Or do you see a more likely winner? Or is a second horse worth being allocated some capital?
PTF ANSWER - I honestly think tom’s d'etat and tiz are just as likely so I would look in their directions
I'm with PTF, Tom would get most of my play
Matt Miller - The morning line odds on the Breeders' Cup races were determined in advance of the post position draw. Needless to say, some of those odds would have been very different if the post positions were known in advance. What do you feel are the prime examples?
Making a good ML for all 14 BC races is a huge challenge, but there are some very suspect lines.
Ivar sticks out to me. He's not impossible but shouldn't be the favorite.
With your specific question - Complexity was not helped and Uni, despite style, got a brutal draw. As someone who factors in ground loss, I am always aware of post positions and resulting impact. But in the ITM Premium Package (inthemoneypodcast.com/bc) - John Carmado has some states that make me less skeptical of outside posts in some of the dirt races.
Matt Miller - If you knew for certain that the favorite in every BC race would go off at 5/2, which ones would you plan to bet (regardless of BCBC or cash)? I'm fishing to see who you think is vulnerable and where you see value.
Hard question to answer.
At 5/2, I'm all over Jackie's Warrior - but on Friday, at the expected price - not so much. Same can be said for Monomoy Girl.
Ivar is the ML favorite, but I'm not seeing that at post time - hard pass at 5/2.
Improbable might be fair at that price.
And I'd take a long look at Aunt Pearl at 5/2 - Though I like Editor at Large at a price in that spot.
Chris - McGuinness How far does Magical win the Turf by? I’m guessing a snug length and a half!
You're much more confident than me...Aidan has a great record in the race but I give slight preference (right now) to another Euro - Tarnawa.
Drew Coatney - FM sprint: can a front runner win? Are all these extreme pace setters defacto takeout reducers based on Derby Distaff (serengeti empress, gamine, inthemidstofbiz, venetian harbor)?
Personally, I’m a big fan of Speech and will use her prominently. On paper, as your question implies, she should get a setup and have first jump on the likely pacesetters. That said, Serengeti Empress is very likely the “speed of the speed”. While several others have been on the lead in various races, according to TimeFormUS, they simply can’t keep up with SE early - even if they wanted to. For me, I might consider taking a stand with two horses. SE and Speech will allow me to have both pace scenarios covered.
Russ Stover - In the Filly-Mare Turf, do you think there should be a good enough pace for Sistercharlie to have a chance?
Yes, she’s a player for sure. And should get a favorable pace setup (and better distance) relative to her other 2020 races. We will address this with a related question about the same race.
Ken Badaway - Which of the Euros is the most likely winner among the 2 days?
As a group, they’re most likely to win the Turf, but landing on a specific horse is more challenging for me. Put differently, I don’t see a European shipper that I’d be willing to single in multi-race wagers. PTF has a better read on the Euros and might be more confident on runners he's more familiar with.
Why are there noticeably more 2 year olds running this year on short rest? Is it because they have not been running on lasix?
One year Johnny V. rode a horse in the Distaff that was favored- the horse appeared troubled in the warm-up; the announcers suggested that the horse might be scratched- but it wasn't; the horse virtually walked around the track during the race- why wasn't Johnny V. more heavily criticized? what was the horses name?
Uni made a $100,000 supplemental nomination fee to be in the Breeders' Cup Mile in 2019. When a horse in nominated by way of a supplemental fee is this listed on the racing form? If not how do research this?
There have been multiple references to the draw for post positions potentially impacting a horse's chance of winning. Depending upon the distance, some pundits think it matters, others do not. What is your opinion?
Question to PTF: with races that have the first finish (short stretch), what is the winning angle we should look for?
Typically a speed favoring type.
Question to PTF: favorite, long shot, stand against
Favorite: Two vs the field in the dirt mile: Knicks go and complexity
Long shot: New Mandate
Stand against: princess noor
Why don’t you hear about track variant from most handicappers
How about a Turf Classic double?