How Drew Coatney Would Attack the BCBC
A Detailed Wagering Strategy from th 2022 BCBC Champion
For the uninitiated, the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge is the biggest Live Money Handicapping Contest of the year.
It’s $10,000 to enter. $2,500 goes to the prize pool, and $7,500 is your starting bankroll. You get to keep your bankroll, in addition to any prize money. There are minimums that must be wagered, and not all pools are available. Go HERE for more history, or to follow this year’s contest leaderboard.
And for those of you who might be newer to ITM, horseplayers with strong connections to ITM have done quite well in the past few years.
Marshall Gramm won in 2020
Matt Miller won in 2021
Drew Coatney won in 2022
Sean Boarman won in 2023
Unreal, actually.
One of those past champions, Matt Miller (2021 BCBC Champion), wrote a book on the topic and shared his approach last week.
Now, Drew Coatney (2022 BCBC Champion), who is unable to play in the BCBC this year, is sharing a step-by-step plan that he’d try to execute.
We realize that $7,500 is a large bankroll, but maybe you could play along (using your own opinions and implementing the theory) with $750 or $75?
Regardless, below you’ll find the detailed strategy that a former champion would be executing. Enjoy.
2024 BCBC Plan - Drew Coatney
Since I’m not playing this year, I figure I would share with you all how I would approach the BCBC. My starting bankroll will be a mythical $7,500 to mirror the BCBC. My target is to achieve $150k. 3 mins Friday of $600, 7 mins Saturday for $600.
Workflow
Handicap the races: quickly cross out spots on the card that are not your strength. Write something for each race that you like. With all the chaos of a contest, you don’t want to have to remember why you liked ABC with circles on a paper. Writing it out also forces you to think critically about the logic in the pick, it sometimes brings to light a horse you were meh about but you should be bullish, or the opposite can happen and you weaken your opinion.
Set a target for the day: 20x for the day.
Build a strategy working backwards: With the final target establish, what are the steps along the way to get to $150k. One thing you’ll notice is I estimate my double probables and hedge low.
Friday – get to $10k
Saturday – get to $16k to bet into doubles Classic/F&M Turf to yield $75k. Then fire $75k in dirt mile to get to $150k
Betting
Friday – the purpose of the day is to move $7.5k to $10k and survive the mins
R6 doubles – target to win $3k with $600 worth of doubles
4,11,12 into #3 Immersive (dutch accordingly and add horses in leg one as permits)
R7 doubles – if live or busts, still playing the min with #5 Quickick/#9 American Bikini into #1 Lake Victoria to get $3k back.
5 w 1 (paying 20s) $150 = $3k
9 w 1 (paying 8s) $350 = $3k
R8 doubles – let’s assume R6 and R7 have busted, I’m back to the well again and it depends on the price. I will assume LV and Chancer will pay 7s. That’s a good value for our target on the day
1 w 10 (paying 7) $450 = $3k
9,6 w 10 (paying 35s+) $75 a piece = $3k
R9 – if I do get live to Chancer, I think I let this ride and don’t continue to leverage. I would hope one of these three doubles build off one another and hit. If I hit the first double, my target doesn’t change. I want to keep building momentum $3k at a time.
Saturday – assuming the bankroll is worst case $5.7k left
Intention for the day: Build momentum without unnecessary risk. I still have to hit my 7 mins
R4 Doubles – utilizing the min bet to get closer to $16k with Ways and Means/Cogburn then a slight fade against Thorpedo
9 w 9 (paying 4s) $600 = $2.4k
R5 Doubles – being live here doesn’t matter too much, I will still play Cogburn back in the doubles
9 w 5,1 (paying 30s) $100/horse = $3k
9 w 9 (paying 8s) $400 = $3.2k
R6 – if nothing hit, I’m in a real pickle with $4.5k left and will force an all in push with something more logical to bump me to $16k (aiming a smidge lower). If something did hit that brought me up to $7-10k, then my spot would be a dutched win bet to move myself up the board in race 7.
R7 – if R4/5 doubles hit and I have $7-10k, I don’t need the added risk of playing R6 double above and will default to this win structure below.
R8 - now I either have $16k or not. I can fire away at The Classic double with an anchor to War Like Goddess
R9 – all in, can’t play, must watch
R10 – pass
R11 – final min bet, play doubles with 8 (will be a huge price) into 1,8,9 in dirt mile, juice up the payouts and move the needle beyond $150k
R12 – all in win bets dutched to get to $150k, and we win or lose
Friday Card
Race 6: Juvie Turf Sprint 5f (T)
Great race to get a live to prices in our minimum bets.
Best Value: #11 Gate to wire (30-1) This looks like the perfect peak at the right time horse. Massive gate works this summer back-to-back (which is odd, you don’t see that often). Lost to Mentee who is a well thought of horse this week, as well. Like the connections and can’t go wrong with Irad aboard wide – will stay out of trouble at least.
Consideration: #4 Magnum Force (15-1) Last out faded to run a decent third behind the top of the market. Two back ran a good race overcoming some adversity. There’s no reason this horse can’t step forward again and pop on the firm and fast turf in Del Mar.
Consideration: #12 Ideas of March (8-1) Dettori well acclimated to the racing out on the west coast. Horse continues to improve, has a break to freshen up, and O’brien will let this one sit clear of traffic trouble and Frankie find a seem down the lane.
Vulnerable Short Price: #8 Ecoro Sieg (7/2) In this competitive field, any price under 10-1 seems silly. Last out this horse got the perfect flow trip while all others were scrambling. Sat 4-5L off the speed and drafting, moved out perfectly and held on. With the new distance and added American speed, I don’t want to bank on betting a short price off a perfect trip.
Race 7: Juvie Filly 8.5f 5 -
Make of it what you will, but the final time Beyer for Scottish Lassie is 90 vs. the TFUS figure of 107. #3 Immersive is 80 and TFUS 107. I like the Immersive figure better: more adversity faced, repeated similar on 8/31.
Live Longshot: 5 Quickick (10-1) Presser/closer who has the better draw of my top two choices. Continues to get better and should be overlooked in the market. The pace should be hot, and Dylan Davis will be able to take advantage of the pace setup. Horse needs to run 5-10 Beyer points higher today, which isn’t impossible for a day like today. Workouts look strong.
Most Logical: #3 Immersive (3-1) Cox entrant has three races under her belt with 3 wins and two of those were tending hot paces. Manny should be able to break and let the mad dash for position unfold upfront then setup shop 2-3 wide staking the hot pace. Figures trending the right direction.
Vulnerable Favorite: #10 Scottish Lassie (5/2) Debut ran into pace pressure and wilted. Last out got a perfect setup and ran on well. Today is going to see so much pace, I have minimal confidence in that 90 figure will hold up with the pace in this race. I also hate trusting a last out top Beyer in a maiden win when things went the horses way.
Race 8: BC Juv Turf Filly 8f (T)
Give me a single here and move on
Most Logical/Best Value: #1 Lake Vicotria (8/5) A 8/5 shot is value? Give me almost 2-1 on a horse that MUST go to the lead, and the draw puts this horse on the inside for a MUST go. Thankfully, there’s no horses to this ones inside because looks to like to lug a bit toward the rail. Stamina and speed to punish these others in here. Reminds me a bit of Big Evs.
Longshot: #9 Kilwin (20-1) Perfect two for two and has been closing going the sprint distance. Could be an interesting stretch out and if our top choice wilts due to pace, this one will be running fast late.
Consideration: #6 Virgin Colada (20-1) Has an affinity 4for the inner turf in the NYRA circuit. Chad Brown runs this one for Resolute Racing. Has yet to get a pace setup and today should offer that. Trending right direction and will be a monster of a closer. Price is right.
Race 9: BC Juvies 8.5f
Tough rendition of this race where there’s upside volatility everywhere.
Most Logical: #10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1) Stop me if you’ve heard this story: Chad Brown with a closer in a dirt race (Sierra Leon). I like the chances of this horse in this spot. Has yet to go a full two turns and gets a ton of pace in this race. East Avenue must send from the rail, #2 Getaway Car has to send, and then the rest of the pack looks to have speed. I would expect Chancer to be trailing along the backstretch by 6+ lengths as the pace heats up. Moreover, this horse has shown can overcome adversity two back in The Hopeful: smashed out gate, lost iron, dropped back, and ran them down against the pace flow in a sprint distance. Mind blowing.
Next Best: #5 Jonathan’s Way (9/2) I like the diversity of running style of this horse. Will assume a pressing trip and improve off the G3 race. Rosario will either work out a brilliant or baffling bad trip – there’s no in between here.
Consideration: #4 Ferocious (6-1) At some point this horse must come back to that debut race, maybe it’s today? The price is right today versus the last two races of odds on.
Vulnerable Favorite: #1 East Avenue (5/2) Hasn’t had any pace pressure to really deal with and today will get plenty of that. Don’t love the chances at a short price that the rail horse will break, not get too much pressure, and be able to run on with it down the lane.
Race 10: Juvies Turf 8f (T)
These three horses and no more. Like the Exacta in her 5 w 11,4 and then reverse it.
Live Longshot: #5 Zulu Kingdom (8-1) Awesome to be able to get almost double digits on Brown. This horse has tactical speed and should be sitting a perfect pocket trip. I really like the last two winning races. Two back had a sneaky hard trip waiting for a seam at top of stretch then got brave and hit the rail hole. Last out it was a yielding surface, on the rail, shifted out late and closed well against the pace big time. The figure is iffy but I will give that a pass due to the nasty weather.
Next Best: #11 New Century (5/2) Last race was great mowing them down going the one turn up at Woodbine. A little concerned with the two turns and tighter turns, but has the class with our third selection.
Next Best 2.0: #4 Al Qudra (4-1) We may see a carbon copy of the last race where this one gets up but can’t run down either of our top two choices. Must use underneath.
Saturday Card
Race 4: F&M Sprint 7f 5
Most Logical: #9 Ways and Means (5/2) One of my favorite picks of the week. If we get even money, I’ll be happy. The horse loves to just sit off the speeds and make one final run, which will setup perfect for her here with all the inside speed. I don’t think we have seen the true potential as the last two races were off wet surfaces.
Best Value: #2 One Magic Philly (10-1) Continues to improve, on home turf, and has to send. Might be able to get away with one on the front end, looks to be the speed here. I especially like when figures come back huge after a slow section on TFUS. That 98 figure two back could be bumped up a few points, putting this one squarely in the mix with this bunch.
Consideration: #10 Syclla (10-1) Has some really nice finish. Gets a freshen for Mott and pointing to this spot. Just needs a little pace duel up front and could run them down.
Race 5: BC Turf Sprint 5f (T)
Friends don’t let friends bet the turf sprint (see my BCBC 2023)
Sanity Insurance: #8 Big Invasion (20-1) Had this horse in the 2023 BCBC for a half a million and a second BCBC title.
Most Logical: #9 Cogburn (7/5) Speed, good. Draw is fine. Don’t overthink it.
Race 6: BC Distaff 9f
Live Longshot: #5 Sugar Fish (20-1) Bear with me, you have to squint. Last out set a big number with slow early pace. Two back bad trip and stagger fest after Adare Manner push those horses into the ground. Three back ran another huge number after overcoming adversity. Four back where I have a big note, “big run from this one, proved it this time, bit of traffic to navigate FT, cleared against the flow to just get up in time.”.
Next Best: #9 Awesome Result (4-1) The TF ratings continue to climb and should be near the lead. The distance won’t be a problem either.
Consideration: #1 Candied (15-1) Pletcher, blinkers go on, speed horse with finish. Not crazy for Todd Pletcher to put in a big one for this horse.
Vulnerable Favorite: #2 Thorpedo Anna (4/5) Way too short of a price here, this has been a massive campaign and I’m worried that will wear on her. Her figures are in the ball park of the rest of this bunch, except for the Travers (but that number is hard to write due to the 10f nature).
Race 7: BC Turf 12f (T)
Tough read on all the Euro imports. I like these two long shots the 3 and 4 in here.
Top Choice: #3 Shahryar (10-1) Showed up huge last year against the best. Was a bit against the pace flow and there’s no reason this lightly campaigned horse could pop at a big number here.
Most Logical: #11 Rebel’s Romance (5/2) Class of the field, Buick, Appleby. Not a very insightful analysis.
Next Best: #4 Luxembourg (12-1) Heavy hitter who has the right figures. Will be near the lead which I think is critical in American Marathons where there might be grabbing going on the stamina testing Euro races. In other words, our jockeys conserve and sprint to the finish rather than run fast throughout.
Race 8: BC Classic 9f
Great edition of The Classic!
Live Longshot: #14 Next (8-1) In a sporting turn of events, this marathon monster fits in here perfectly to run on with it. 8-1 is a gift if this horse can press. Next has all the time in the world along the stretch the first time around to work out a trip. I think we’ll get closer to 12-1 on the day due to money the top of the market will take.
Next best: #9 Fierceness (3-1) Hate the price but this horse should get a similar trip to next, press the pace and go on with it. Best overall figures and I have a trip note to upgrade that last perfect big tie.
Consdieration: #11 Sierra Leone (12-1) This is a stretch of a pick, but will be closing late and maybe, just maybe, Chad has go this one figured out.
Race 9: F&M Turf
Weird configuration – starting around the turn
Most Logical: #4 War Like Goddess (5/2) This is her race to win with so many defections avoiding this weird configuration starting around the turn. My day will run through her.
Race 10: BC Sprint 6f
No strong opinion here – Gun Pilot is a fun horse that could wake back up at a massive price.
Race 11: BC Mile 8f (T)
Live Longshot: #8 More than Looks (20-1) Was only 80% cranked in the debut at the Four Star Dave. Caught a slow pace that day. Last out caught another very slow pace. Still running huge numbers. Love this one in the mix. This is a four year old with only three starts this year.
Best Value: #12 Carl Spackler (6-1) Mile specialist for Cad Brown that continues to impress on the close. If the pace doesn’t heat up for our top choice, this is his race to lose.
Consideration: #7 Porta Fortuna (4-1) Hearing good things on the ground about this one. Ran well in the juvy race last year. Comes back and looks in even better form.
Race 12: BC Dirt Mile
The final race of the BCBC is where champions are made. I don’t have a strong enough opinion, so this will require a dutch win bet to move the goal post.
Live Longshot: #8 Post Time (12-1) Closer style horse who continues to get better. If this race falls apart, this horse will be running late.
Most Logical: #9 Domestic Product (7/2) Doing great since turning back to the mile/sprint distances. I like how Prat gets to draw outside and make some decisions to establish position.
Next Best: #1 Saudi Crown (5-1) Speed ball on the rail has to dead send. The quick lead into the turn helps this one’s chances.