A Bettor Way Of....Playing the BCBC

Thoughts from 2021 BCBC Champion Matt Miller

PTF here. One of the highlights of my professional year was working with Matt Miller on his book, A Bettor Way of Thinking. Matt has had a major hand in three Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge wins, and in the book, he details his thought process and strategy when it comes to horse racing – and life in general. As part of this year’s Plus coverage for the BC, he’s allowed us to reprint an excerpt specifically about his strategy for the BCBC.

For more, MUCH more, I encourage you to visit abettorwayofthinking.com to buy a copy of the book. I guarantee it will pay for itself.

Take it away, Matt!

***Later this week, 2022 BCBC Champion Drew Coatney will be sending a tactical plan of how he’d approach the 2024 BCBC. You’ll get a great sense of how to use this strategy prospectively.

The Nuts and Bolts of Getting There

When it comes to trying to win the BCBC, work backwards from your target, starting with the last race of the tournament. Whether you like that race or not, it doesn’t matter. Except in rare instances, you maximize your chance to win by playing it. As discussed earlier, a big tournament like the BCBC is nearly impossible to win from wire-to-wire. And even if the tournament leader simply needs to build or pad the lead, the last race is critical.

So who do you like in the last? Seriously, that’s the next question. Look at the last race of the tournament and figure out what play you would like to make in that race. Be realistic – longshots usually lose, but if your theory is that a given favorite is vulnerable, maybe your strategy can be to play a cluster of longshots. Think about it – betting three 8/1 shots is the same thing as betting a 2/1 shot in terms of implied win probability and risk/reward. Every scenario will be a little bit different, but in nearly every instance the exercise starts with figuring out your plan for the last race. I’ll get into the specifics of “picking” horses later, but for now, focus on using your best skills to come up with the most efficient way to get to your goal.