Vulnerable Favorites and Viable Longshots
Kentucky Derby Edition
The post below is from 2022 BCBC Champion Drew Coatney
Before we dive in, we should acknowledge that “vulnerable favorite” can mean many things to many people. For our purposes, these are horses with odds that are disproportionate to their actual odds of winning. Most of the horses below have a great chance of winning, just not a 70% chance of winning. With that out of the way, let’s find some value by identifying where favorites can be faded.
Oaks Day 2024
Vulnerable Favorite Race 5: La Troienne 8.5f (dirt)
Fading: #4 Idiomatic (6/5) This horse is going to be a wildly short price on the day (3/5?). An enigma last year, running early in the season like an Optional Claimer than became a super star. I don’t love the long layoff that will have me wondering if we’ll see the slow start or the beast that we saw at the tail end of last season. There’s a lot of speed in here and I don’t think she’ll get an easy go of things. Give me #6 Xigera to sit and pounce once the speeds burn up.
Vulnerable Favorite Race 7: Alysheba Stakes 8.5f (dirt)
Fading: #3 First Mission (8/5) On paper seems to be a flat track bully, earning big numbers against easier. Today will have pace presence to deal with. That will mean this horse will be too close and burn up late. The price will be way too short on backing this horse when there’s other tactical speed (Steal Sunshine) or closers (Tapit Trice) that can cross the wire first.
Longshot Race 8: Modesty Stakes 9f (T)
Best Value: #7 Join the Dance (20-1) This race is wide open. And I love that the form is slightly dirty for the last two races over the good and soft going. Has an ability to press the pace and still finish. Always runs a good one so a must use underneath in exotics, as well.
Vulnerable Favorite Race 9: Edgewood Stakes 8.5f (T)
Fading: #9 Hard to Justify (2-1) Last few races benefited from some soft easy fractions. Today will run into much more pace and needs to really step forward. The price will be too short to back with those questions marks and coming off the layoff. The figures are light, to boot.
Derby Day 2024
Longshot Race 5: Twinspires Turf Stakes 5.5f (T)
Best Value: #6 Filo Di Arriana (12-1) Maybe I’m a Woodbine fan-boy, but this horse has done some serious running. Let’s cross a line through that long layoff with blue early fractions and was destroyed out of the gate, almost dropping the rider. That race was coming off a 9-month layoff, so we’ll excuse that. Two back this horse set some nice fractions with classy horses to only get tired (maybe too long). Three back ran massive at the mile distance. I love that this horse is cutting back, can get a nice pressing trip and has the stamina to carry on. In a field that has a ton of pace, this one can sit right off it and run a number that he’s produced many times before.
Vulnerable Favorite Race 8: Pat Day Mile 8f (dirt)
Fading: #8 Top Connor (5/2) Definitely the backup plan here, with hopes of running in the Derby. Last race couldn’t get the job done on the front end, setting things up for the 2nd choice in the Derby Sierra Leone at Keeneland. What I don’t love here is that this horse will face just as much pace pressure in this race and the outside post will force this one to clear all sorts of other speeds drawn inside. Give me #10 Gettysburg Address and #12 Nash.
Vulnerable Favorite Race 9: American Turf Stakes 8.5f (T)
Fading #14 Agate Road (5-1) Not a “favorite” based on the morning line, but wow is that a short price. This is the same story as above, feels like a backup plan when he didn’t have enough points in the Derby. I have yet to be wow’d on the turf by his performances. With the unproven form and light figures, I will be looking elsewhere. I wouldn’t be surprised if this horse ends up in the 8’s, but if gets bet down that’s great. I would much rather a horse with tactical speed who has a better post draw like #6 Neat (6-1).
Longshot Race 11: Turf Classic 9f (T)
Best Value: #4 Far Bridge (8-1) I don’t think we have seen the best of this horse yet. Last out was short and ran on well against the pace flow. Two back at Kentucky Downs with an odd course ran a great one and the figure is light because of how slow early the race was run. Three back the yielding course at Saratoga provided a bad trip. Four back is where I’m keying, this horse ran his eye balls out earning a 124 TF fig. Today could get a similar setup: pocket trip and run on with it.