UPDATED: Pick 3 Strategy
UPDATED: Pick 3 Strategy
A couple of updates from Drew - Sorry for the multiple emails but wanted to make sure the updates are accurately reflected.
Pick 3 - Races 6-8 - Drew Coatney
Race 6: Alysheba (G2) 8.5f
Small field but competitive. Without any pace, I’m looking to the two that will be on the lead. Maxfield is logical but looks beatable. Remember weird things happen on Oaks/Derby days.
Best Value/A: #3 Attachment Rate (8-1) Stretches back out to the two turn events where this horse has done his best running. The past two races were a bit too fast early for this stalker to remain in position. Today the horse should be able to break loose and finish well. It’s also a plus that this one has raced without Lasix and everything seems to have gone well. Talamo gets aboard.
Next Best/A: #5 Roadster (9/2) I don’t think Bob would ship this one all the way out East to be embarrassed. The work tab looks strong, the long layoff race was more or less a success and a stepping stone.
Fading/Most Logical: #6 Maxfield (4/5 but will be 1/9) Gets a wide draw, has to go without Lasix again, and no pace to run into. Racing is a funny thing, and anything can happen. The name brand recognition will take all value out of this one. Consider fading the race entirely to save equity if you believe Maxfield is still a likely winner.
Race 7: The Edgewood (G2) 8.5f (T)
The biggest nap of the day. If Aunt Pearl gets upset, you will get paid. We’ll have a few nickels on a few backups.
Most Logical/A: #6 Aunt Pearl (4/5 but likely to be another 1/9) There’s no other speed in this race so don’t overcomplicate this.
Under Use/C: #2 Gift List (7/2) Closed well into the slow pace after a long long layoff. The trainer is amazing at second off these types of layoffs, so expect a decent running from this one.
Best Value Underneath/C: #5 Line Dancing (20-1) Another closing into slow fractions and will be getting a second start. Continues to improve every start so where the bottom?
Race 8: La Troienne (G1) 8.5f
Mott with a target might upset this ship
Most Logical/A+: #2 Shedaresthedevil (8/5) Gets a good inside draw and will have the speed to establish position early. Many of the others in here will want to stalk and try to pounce, but I don’t think she will give that chance. The second start for the four year old who is 3 for 3 at CD will be a tough customer to pass deep in the stretch. Note this one did win the debut 4 year old season to the rising star of Letruska, who just beat Swiss Skydiver (didn’t fire) and Monomoy Girl
Best Value/A: #5 Paris Lights (8-1 and fair value is 10-1 or higher) Mott with a target is a scary thing. This one got a prep race at the shorter distance last out without Lasix to prep for this spot. The pattern has happened when this one started the career: runs at 7f and stretches out with a monster run. Tyler gets back aboard.
Ticket: The goal is to beat Maxfield, risk a little, win a lot: Ticket Cost is $50
A+ Line: 3,5 w 6 w 2 = $11 ($22 total)
A’sLine 3,5 w 6 w 2,5 = $3 ($12 total)
C’s Line 3,5 w 2,5 w 2,5 = $0.50 ($4 total)
C’s with A+: 3,5 w 2,5 w 2 = $0.50 ($2 total)
Savers: If you’re the type of person who wants to have action and a rooting interest, these savers are a nice emotional hedge but not likely to be an EV player's move.
Saver (A+): 6 w 6 w 2 = $5 ($5 total)
Saver (A): 6 w 6 w 5 = $2 ($2 total)
Saver (C): 6 w 2,5 w 2 = $0.5 ($1 total)
Oaks - Turf Classic - Derby Pick 3 - Drew Coatney
Comments on ticket construction
The tickets below were built to efficiently deploy capital. In other words, I’m narrowing my opinions to risk a little to win a lot. If you’re the type of person that likes cash tickets regardless of the ROI, then by all means deploy some of the “consideration” horses. Shout out to Matt Miller for the guidance.
Race 11: KY Oaks (G1) 9f
My approach is to remove names and look at the data, there're many “buzz horses” coming into this race that most on paper look evenly matched.
Most Logical/A: #12 Search Results (3-1 and value feels about 7/2) Fun fact, this horse has earned the highest Beyer figure (92) without being sent down for the drive in the final 1/8th. This horse has LUGGING problems and can be seen in all three of her replays. In Chad Brown I trust to get this one ready to stalk the pack near the lead, let this one glide into contention around the turn, and then set down for a drive. This one either is DQ’d or a winner.
Trip Note: 4/3 very handily up until the moment the horse got green and lost interest, jock had to get after to regain focus.
Trip Note: 3/6 stretch drive the jockey never really sent this one down for the drive due to greenness.
Best Value/Don’t leave off underneath!!!/B: #9 Coach (50-1) Watching the entire body of replays for this horse, you get a sense she has a lot of untapped potential and Cox has been picking and choosing spots to lay it all out on the table. Oaks day this one might blow up the tote board. Let’s cross a line through the 3/6 race. Three back, this horse makes two moves that showed a new dynamic to this one. Getting passed around the turn then coming back on again to finish and finish well. Last out the jockey panicked and launched a sweeping wide bid going 4 or 5 wide. This premature move off the rail led to ground loss, dulling the effort, but still running on like a good thing down the lane. And yet again, showed a new gear. Cox has one last trick up his sleeve to get this unlikely winner home. Saez will do everything in his power to save ground and be in a position at the top of the stretch to hit the hole and close.
Trip Note: 4/3 had to be hard ridden to keep pace out of gate, settled 3-4L back on rail. Into FT launched bid (jockey panicked) and had to go around everyone, losing all sorts of ground, came on terms, drifting, bad trip, winning race, there's more left in the tank (Big step up)
Trip Note: 3/6 Terrible ride going wide entire way, restraining horse entire time, NF effort entire way down the stretch
Trip Note: 1/30 Steadied early and lost all position, on BS made early move to regain position, thought was entirely dead coming onto the top of the stretch but had some GREAT FINISH. 2 Moves – wow
Other Consideration/B: #3 Clairiere (3-1) Has continued to have troubled trips, especially in the last. A grinder style of horse cycling up for the biggest start of her career. Last out had to dodge a handful of landmines in the stretch. If you like Travel Column it’s hard to say Clairiere is right not there with her form-wise.
Other Consideration/B:#1 Pauline’s Pearl (20-1) Hard to ignore this one continues to climb both TimeFormUS and Beyers each and every start. Last out showed good grit. The rail draw and good gate speed might be just the winning move. Class is lacking. The step-up might reveal her true form.
Trip Note: 4/3 broke alert, forced 4w into 1T, 1-2L off into 1T, into FT launched 3w bid, continued to grind past the leader
Beatable Favorite/X: #10 Malathaat (5/2) Pletcher is 4 for 23 with second off layoffs in grade 1’s. Can the horse win? Sure! But I’m not in the business of picking a short priced horse who had a campaign derailed, is coming 2nd off a layoff, and got a bit of a setup last time out to close past Pass The Champ. You have to crack eggs somewhere to make money.
Race 11: Turf Classic 9f (T)
Paceless race with many chances
Top Choice/A+: #5 Domestic Spending (9/2) Don’t think this one has posted the best number yet. Lightly raced four year old will come flying late. Chad Brown and upside four year old turfers is something I don’t want to bet against.
Best Value/A+: #1 Masteroffoxhounds (15-1) The comeback race looked to be just a paid workout although the pp’s don’t show that. Last out went a bit too far and dulled any quicken. Today getting a third start cycle up on form for a four year old in the hands of Rosario. 15-1 feels like good value for a lot of the heavy contenders that are either unproven in class or are coming off 5 month layoffs.
Next Best/A: #8 Cross Border (12-1 and fair value is anything over 8-1) Fits this pace like a glove and should be a fantastic price. The form is a bit muddy and we love it! Last out tried going the marathon distance and didn’t have anything left in the tank but didn’t disgrace. Two back had a bit of a trip and still ran on well. Today we’re willing to gamble Santana will put one right up near the front vanguard and have good energy left at this slight cutback.
Consideration/B: #9 Ride a Comet (5-1) The trainer has this one back on form. Needs a bit of a pace to run into but the ability to quicken has me using.
Consideration/B: #6 Digital Age (8-1) Could be on or near the lead. Won this thing last year at a similar price.
Race 12: The Kentucky Derby (G1) 12f
Smells like plenty of pace signed on and plenty of pretenders.
Top of the list
Top Choice/A: #17 Highly Motivated (10-1) Chad Brown had this one ready to finish second the whole time out last time. The acting on the jockey was laughable deep in the stretch drive. Today should turn the tables at least on Essential Quality and likely this entire field.
Next Best/A: #15 Rock Your World (5-1) Could just wire this field and based on the gallop out of the last race, wants to keep on running. Sure didn’t face adversity in the last out but sometimes getting on the lead and rolling is the way to go for Derby.
Consideration/x: #9 Hot Rod Charlie (8-1) New Dynamic, should be able to be adaptive to the race and close, stay near, or lead.
Longshot list
Including/B #5 Sainthood (50-1)/B Had this amazing burst of energy after stalking the hot pace, getting bumped behind a wall of horses, and then still found something left to quicken. No slouch of connections and continues to fire amazing training drills. Will be a million to one.
Including/B #16 King Fury (20-1) will get the dream setup, goes away for 5 months and throws down the performance like that. Derby will give the same pace setup, too.
Including/B #4 Keepmeinmind (50-1) Scary thought this one has yet to fire and ran some great races. Is this one just trying to stay fit and then hit “go” for the big day?
Underneath Use/X: #12 Helium (50-1) Sure didn’t beat shit down there but this one came off a 6 month layoff. Entire way around track was hustled. This one could be an interesting type to just grind and grind and grind and grind as they hit the top of the stretch
Underneath Use/X: #6 O Besos (20-1) improves every start, will get a pace to run into. Likely best for minor placings, no?
Logical Fades
UPDATE - NO LONGER FADING: #15 Rock Your World (5-1) Speed of the speed and might have something left to give. With Rosario aboard, will he get just the stalking trip? I don’t want to gamble to find out from where out in the wide post
#8 Medina Spirit (15-1) Sure had a piss poor trip but faded hard down the lane. I doubt with more speed and distance this one will jump up and hang late.
#7 Mandaloun (15-1) Ran into a smidge of adversity and wanted no part of it, will need to beat me here.
#1 Known Agenda (6-1) Continues to baffle beating up on nobody horses
#14 Essential Quality (2-1) was absolutely all out last race and likely took some starch out of this one’s sails for today
Ticket Construction: $60
Third of the money going through Coach, the 9 as we believe the value here is unreal. The other half the money will be going through Search Results as this horse could become a monster
All: 9,12 w 1,5,8 w 4,5,9,16,17 = $0.5 ($15 total)
A’s: 12 w 1,5,8 w 15,17 = $5 ($30 total)
A+: 12 w 1,5 w 15,17 = $5 ($20 total)
Longshot spread: 9 w all (9x) w 15,17 = $0.5 ($9 total) – if we get a 50-1 shot home in the first leg, I’m not willing to risk getting knocked out by Colonel Liam or the likes.
Longshot press: 9 w 1,5,8 w 15,17 = $1 ($6 total)