The Keeneland Journal - October 6th, 2024
By Eric DeCoster (@ericdecoster_ on X)
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Sunday, October 6th, 2024 - Day 3 of 17
The Lowdown
We close out this wonderful opening weekend with a 10 race card, featuring three more major Breeders’ Cup preps. Today’s card is maiden heavy and 2-year-old heavy, meaning there is sure to be some chaos throughout the afternoon.
Yesterday saw some elite performances from the likes of East Avenue, Gina Romantica, and Carl Spackler and I’m hopeful we see some other superstars do their thing today.
Who To Watch
Tyler Gaffalione, Luis Saez, and Jose Ortiz have opened up the meet strong with 4 wins a piece and strong wins yesterday. They were expected to be the trio battling for top honors this meet and that’s the reality so far.
I mentioned the Ellis Park riders as guys who might struggle at the meet and that’s been the truth so far with Jaime Torres (0-for-5), Luan Machado (0-for-10), and Cristian Torres (0-for-7) winless at the meet.
Cherie DeVaux is having an exceptional year and she scored a pair of wins yesterday, plus a runner up with More Than Looks in the Turf Mile. Other than that, most trainers are hitting at their regular rates. The big exception is still Rusty Arnold, who’s 0-for-5 so far with quite a few low priced runners making no impression in running.
Maiden Play of the Day
Race 3 - #9 Emmy Blue (12-1 ML)
There’s plenty of maiden opportunities on today’s card — even my best bet falls in a special weight — and that gives me the chance to focus in on a few horses I’ve been waiting to run back. That includes Emmy Blue, a horse with clear ability but from a barn that focuses on developing it’s prospects.
Vicki Oliver trainees will always take a while to hit their best stride, but any signs of life in their first few races indicate a horse who can win shortly after. I was impressed with this filly’s debut over 5 1/2 furlongs, where she flashed strong early speed before folding up in the very late stages. Her second start at Kentucky Downs, with an added furlong, she settled better just off the pace before finishing up nicely to only lose by three-parts of a length. The races haven’t come back quick on paper, but I think there’s a strong chance this filly takes a big step forward stretching out for the first time. Her pedigree is filled with horses who have gotten better with more ground, and her sire Oscar Performance is always a capable distance influence.
Pace Play of the Day
Race 5 - #1 Hedwig (8-1 ML)
The fifth race goes as a salty, essentially unconditioned allowance event for 3-year-old turf sprinters. The race is written for non-winners of a graded stakes race on turf, so the majority of these horses have quality stakes experience and there’s even a graded stakes winner on dirt in here.
If #3 Joe Shiesty is in a race, you know the pace is going to be electric. Then you factor in #5 World Record, who’s set wicked fractions in tough graded stakes on dirt. Then there’s #11 Bear River, who can only win when making the lead and holds a TFUS Early Speed rating of 120. That’s still only the fourth highest number in this field! #9 Barksdale is the fastest according the TFUS (128), and there’s no doubt he’ll want to blitz along early. What about #6 Baxley and #8 Spirit’s Mischief? Neither is that fast by those figures but they have done their best running in wire-to-wire fashion. #12 Apollo Ten is stakes placed when trying to rate but both of his wins this year came when leading the entire way. Factor in horses like #2 Run Carson, #4 How’s Ur Attitude, #7 Silent Heart, and #10 Horsepower who prefer to be a length or less from the lead and that means 11 of the 12 horses in this race will battle for 2 positions early!
That leaves Hedwig. This Eoin Harty trainee likes to sit within a few lengths of the lead, but certainly won’t try and force himself into today’s crazy scenario. He was able to rate well and close to win an allowance two back against elders before disappointing in the G1 Franklin-Simpson S. last time out. He’s 2-for-2 at this exact distance and had to rate in both of those efforts. While he only owns one figure that can be competitive in this spot, I can’t in good conscience go against him when you can’t trust any other runner in this spot to get the trip they want.
Best Bet
Race 7 - #4 Built (5-1 ML)
Built looked like a very intriguing colt on debut and was bet like it, going off at 3-1 at Ellis. Unfortunately he caught the talented East Avenue that day and had to come from well off the pace, but he still finished up very nicely to finish 4th. The margin of defeat is inflated by East Avenue’s domination that day, however you can clearly see the potential Built possesses with how he closed into things. I’ve been excited to play him back and today is that day.
Wayne Catalano does alright with firsters but excels second time out with his youngsters, winning at 19%. It isn’t often you see him get a nicely priced horse either, but Eclipse Thoroughbreds sent this $260,000 two-year-old in training sale grad his way and he’s lit up the worktab since. He comes into this race firing an insane half-mile in 46 and change, best of 53 workers that day at the distance. Things are trending entirely Built’s way today, and hopefully his one race gives him the experience edge over some other colts in here who sold well but have yet to make a start.
Feature Race Roundup
Race 8 - The Indian Summer S.
5 1/2 Furlongs // Turf // 2 Year Olds
#1 - Bad Gal Party: This filly ships in from Florida off a solid maiden win on Tapeta. The figures came back really slow compared to this level. There’s clear speed from this runner and she’ll try to be apart of the pace, but it’s hard to back her comparatively.
#2 - Chasing Liberty: 2-for-2 to open his career after a win in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Sprint. It did come via DQ but he was affected by the first place runner and realistically could’ve won without interference. He’s got a versatile running style and is plenty fast enough to pick up another win.
#3 - G W’s Girl: Another filly coming off a maiden win out of town. It was also visually impressive but came against much, much weaker so it’s hard to say how good she really is. Does pick up Jose Ortiz for this race.
#4 - Out On Bail: Already very experienced as he’ll make his sixth start of the year today. He won a stakes over this distance at Saratoga two back but then was defeated by Governor Sam last time fair an square. Consistent and competitive but has to get a little better.
#5 - Dreamaway: Scratched.
#6 - Pharoah’s Dynasty: Well beaten as the favorite in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Sprint. He seemingly sat the trip he wanted that day but failed to kick on at all when the running got going. His maiden win at 6 furlongs was pretty sharp and yielded strong figs for that time of year. This is an interesting move for Ward to come back off such a bad effort, so obviously there’s something more here than the last race indicates.
#7 - Governor Sam: Has rattled off three wins in a row after losing his debut in stakes company. He’s posting consistently fast figures and has been able to do it both on the lead and off the pace. Will be tough in here.
#8 - Just Keep Looking: Another Delaware shipper off a maiden win going 5 furlongs there. It was a confident win in a race that produced next out winners, but still hard to determine how he fits on this circuit.
#9 - Raise the Bar: An intriguing entrant as he makes his first start for the Steve Asmussen barn. He broke his maiden for Wesley Ward in the spring and looked like a Royal Ascot contender before laying off due to injury. His only race was a very impressive performance but it’s hard to judge him in the new barn, on a new surface, and without any other experience. Bred to like these conditions.
#10 - Moon Sniper: Super nice pedigree on this one being by top turf sprinter, Caravaggio, and out of the stakes winning turf sprinting mare, Ruby Notion. He broke his maiden in start number two last out. It was a solid win in an off-the-turf race as he set the pace and drew away with ease. I’ve seen worse 20-1 shots.
#11 - Jet Sweep Joe: Another well experienced runner with 5 previous starts. He broke his maiden on debut but has failed to win since, although his last two losses have been by a neck and a head. He’s shown big improvement since being on the lead in those ;last two races and he’s stuck with two horses who will be well bet today in Governor Sam and Out on Bail.
#12 - Floodlites: After a dull debut on dirt he switched to turf and broke his maiden at Kentucky Downs. It was a solid win over 6 furlongs and he posted a decent 72 Beyer for the time. Has to take step forward here but obviously you can’t fully dismiss Wesley Ward in this race.
AE#13 - Fiddling Felix: A maiden after three starts, this guy will be making his first turf start and cutting back from a mile today. He actually has a good effort two back when 4th behind Chancer McPatrick at the Spa, but this is still a very interesting spot.
The Choice - #7 Governor Sam (3-1 ML)
In a race filled with horses who’ve put up good efforts but not a lot of wins, this guy has continually delivered and run fast races.
Race 9 - The G1 Spinster S.
1 1/8th Miles // Dirt // 3 Year Olds Fillies & Mares
#1 - Idiomatic: Last year’s divisional champ has had another great year, with two wins and two seconds, both losses coming by a head. She should be able to control from the break and handle any kind of pressure she faces.
#2 - Candied: After disappointing upon seasonal debut in the G1 Ashland S. here, she’s taken a very good step forward in three races since. After chasing Thorpedo Anna two starts ago she very nearly got up to win the G1 Alabama S. most recently. She’s mighty talented and a G1 winner last season at Keeneland, but needs the right setup.
#3 - Loved: Has done well at the lighter stakes and allowance levels but her three graded stakes starts have gone poorly. She adds blinkers today and figures to apply solid pressure to Idiomatic early. Hard to say she’ll do much outside of that.
#4 - Honor D Lady: Looked very nice winning the G2 Delaware Handicap in her most recent start, however that was 3 months ago. Her wins this year both there and in the G3 Royal Delta S. were strong but the losses haven’t been great, including a loss to Candied. A player for the minor positions.
#5 - Bow Draw: Not even gonna bother.
#6 - Occult: Probably a cut below in here but has some strong back class dating to last season. She was a G3 winner then and placed in the G1 Cotillion with solid figures throughout, but has struggled to take the necessary step this year. She ran a career best Beyer last time out however that came in July.
The Choice - #1 Idiomatic (3/5 ML)
Hard to make a case for anyone else. They’ll need to hound her and even then hope she fires her C level race for her to lose.
Race 10 - The G2 Bourbon S.
1 1/16th Miles // Turf // 2 Year Olds
#1 - Warheart: Took a decent step forward in start number two at Kentucky Downs last out. The figure wasn’t super sexy but be battled on well. Gaffalione moves to a horse he’s never ridden instead of returning for this one.
#2 - Warlander: Fired the third best last out Beyer (77) when breaking his maiden last time out at Kentucky Downs. It was his second start, this first being a very productive maiden at Saratoga that featured States’ Rights, yesterday’s impressive maiden winner. He’s absolutely in with a chance if he can get a clean stalking trip.
#3 - Siesta Key: 2 starts, 2 wins for this Brad Cox pupil. His last win came in stakes company at Colonial, his turf debut and a very good closing effort. He’ll need some help from a race flow perspective but is much better than his figures indicate. There’s a reason Gaffalione hops aboard.
#4 - Giocoso: Holds the best class in the race having run 3rd in the G3 Iroquois S. on dirt behind Breeders’ Cup bound Jonathan’s Way and Owen Almighty. Prior to that he broke his maiden at Ellis on turf by over 6 lengths and put up a 78 Beyer, something he’s accomplished twice in a row now. A lot of good races in a row but can’t choose today to have the down race.
#5 - Minaret Station: Broke his maiden in a Horseshoe Indy maiden race which didn’t come back too slow. He may have only won by a neck but it was almost 7 lengths back to the rest of the field. The runner-up there came back to run a decent 4th yesterday ibn maiden company. However, this fella dropped his first decision to Giocoso.
#6 - Cavallo Bay: Always scary when Charlie Appleby ships into town. However, this colt wasn’t respected at the windows at Saratoga last time when 3rd in the G3 With Anticipation S. and he never looked like he was going to straight. Granted the talented Zulu Kingdom isn’t here but it’s hard to figure out how much he’ll improve today.
#7 - Barricade: This runner was also in that productive Saratoga maiden that produced Warlander and States’ Rights, among others. He then returned to win his second start but failed to improve his Beyer at all. He has a lot of heart but how much talent is a question that’s hard to answer.
#8 - Golden Afternoon: Broke his maiden at Kentucky Downs on debut, but that race didn’t feel like one of the stronger maiden fields at this meet this season. He showed speed over 6 1/2 furlongs that day, so he’ll probably be impactful in the pace scenario.
#9 - Papiamento: Ran an average race on debut but then took a step forward at the Spa, breaking his maiden by 2 1/2 lengths and improving his Beyer by 11 points. I appreciated how much more involved he was that day and I think sitting a similar stalking trip could yield positive results again today.
#10 - Clock Tower: Another likely pace participant after winning his Kentucky Downs maiden. His turf debut, he dominated from the front and posted a 78 Beyer for his efforts, the co-highest last out number in the field. If others relax and let this guy take off it could be over after the first quarter.
#11 - Baytown Baracus: Failed to impact in his first six career starts so he shipped to Presque Isle and finally broke through. While he found himself on the lead that day and that probably carried him to victory, he doesn’t have the natural early speed to hang with the other on-the-pace types in this spot.
#12 - Reach for the Rose: Ran in both the Juvenile Sprint and Juvenile Mile at Kentucky Downs this year. He ran a solid race in the Sprint but was never close in the Juvenile Mile. I think he’s a much better horse than that last effort indicated but the outside draw is a killer.
The Choice - #9 Papiamento (10-1 ML)
I loved the development from his first to second start and thought the figures reflected that well. Whit Beckman does good work with juveniles and growing them from race-to-race. I think Frankie is going to give this guy the perfect stalking ride and then leave it up to the horse to deliver down the lane.