The Keeneland Journal - October 5th, 2024

By Eric DeCoster (@ericdecoster_ on X)

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Saturday, October 5th, 2024 - Day 2 of 17

The Lowdown

The biggest day of the meet comes on day two, with five graded stakes holding significant Breeders’ Cup implications on the back half of today’s card. The weather is good, the fields are strong, and there is some good juju in the journal coming off a pretty good day of handicapping yesterday. Let’s dive in!

Who to Watch

Brad Cox - He opened up his Fall 2024 account in a big way, taking three races and winning two stakes. Its not like any of these were surprises as they were all well-backed, but it still goes to show how dominant Cox is, and has been, at Keeneland. 

Frankie Dettori - I’m not telling you anything you don’t know, but Frankie is a damn good rider. His score on Stylish Style in the 5th Race was about as perfect of a front running ride as you’ll find. His win in the Jessamine on May Day Ready was exceptional. She was hounded by multiple rivals throughout the race, but Frankie stayed calm and wormed through traffic extremely effectively. Fact of the matter is, there’s no worrying about getting a good trip when the horse is right and this jock is in the saddle. 

Outside of these two, it was a very even day across the board for jockeys and trainers. Most of the major names on both ends picked up a win, and if they didn’t it was still likely they hit the board in spots. We’ll see how things separate over the next two days. 

Maiden Play of the Day

Race 3 - #3 Big Air (15-1 ML)

We’ll take a shot in this wide open maiden event for juvenile fillies, going 7 furlongs on the dirt. 

Big Air has shown positive qualities in each of her first two starts and returns to the dirt after hitting the board at Kentucky Downs last time out. On debut, this filly was a little slow into stride and was shuffled back as a result. She clearly resented the dirt in her face but once she got clear did some late running. She then shifted to the grass and broke like a shot, setting a pretty rough pace on her own before tiring to finish 3rd. Having learned that she can break well and put herself forward I’m intrigued to see her team up with Frankie Dettori, who is proving lethal on speed types on traditional U.S. ovals. If she gets away clean and controls the tempo from the inside draw I’d expect another solid improvement from Big Air, perhaps one that could put her in the winners’ circle. 

Pace Play of the Day

Race 5 - #5 Sexagenarian (7/2 ML)

2 year old sprint races for winners typically mean one thing — everyone wants the lead. That’s the case with this allowance race today, where the majority of these horses broke their maidens recently in wire-to-wire fashion. That makes me look to a horse whose best performance so far came from off the pace in the form of Sexagenarian. 

He broke his maiden coming from just off of things on the dirt at Ellis, stepping away from foes strongly in the late stages. Mike Maker then took a shot at the quarter-million dollar Keeneland allowance at Kentucky Downs. He somewhat defaulted to the lead in that spot, setting slow fractions before being beaten by Tiztastic in the closing stages. That rival went on to win the Kentucky Downs Juvenile on a quick turnaround and is now Breeders’ Cup bound. 

I’m very excited to see this colt return to dirt. He looked so sharp over the surface that I think he’s in for a big step forward today. He also proved he can settle very nicely with kickback, so he should be even more capable this time round. It also helps that there should be tons of speed for him to close into with #2 Eighty West, #3 Jacksons Roar, #4 Macho Music, #9 Ace It, and #8 Charbonnay (adding blinkers) all capable of flashing early. Sexagenarian should have the perfect set up to get win number two. 

Best Bet

Race 2 - #1 States Rights (5/2 ML)

If I’m rocking with a maiden for my best bet, that likely tells you how difficult today’s card is. This race isn’t even really an exception, but I believe there’s value in leaning heavily on this morning line favorite in all wagering scenarios. 

This maiden race going two turns on grass feels like one you could easily overthink. There’s a lot of colts who’ve run really well in their early starts and are certain to take steps forward here. But States Rights seems like a colt with graded stakes potential. After an educational spin on the dirt for his debut Cherie DeVaux switched this son of Constitution to the grass. The lightbulb turned on big time; he missed the break, recovered to settle well off the pace, came with a strong finish, and only missed by a head to the extremely talented but sidelined, Simulate. The 3rd place finisher, Warlander, since broke his maiden and is well regarded for tomorrow’s Bourbon Stakes, and a different also-ran also came back to win next out. DeVaux runners naturally improve from start one to two, and this colt looks ready to peak in run number three. 

With many other tricky races early on in this card, I think it’s fair to hone in on this colt to save you some pennies pre-race and get you paid post-race. 

Feature Race Roundup

Race 6 - The G2 Shakertown S.  

5 1/2 Furlongs // Turf // 3 Year Olds & Up

#1 - One Timer: One half of the Larry Rivelli entry, this gelding is looking for his first win since last August. He’s struggled to find his groove in 2024, disappointing when decently backed at Kentucky Downs. He does his best work on the lead but he’ll have to work hard to get it today. 

#2 - Axthelm: It sounds like this one is opting to run at BAQ today, which if so probably better suits him than 5 1/2 furlongs. 

#3 - Charcoal: This 8-year-old has always been a hard knocker, and finally ended his losing skid two starts ago at Ellis. He didn’t disgrace himself either when 5th in the G2 Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint. However, he has a very poor Keeneland record and the distance record isn’t much better. 

#4 - Our Shot: A fast, always finishing bridesmaid. He’s lost 9 straight and the last two by a nose and a head, each in tough company and resulting in strong figures. Its fair to give him consideration off those efforts, but the lack of wins does matter. 

#5 - No Nay Hudson: Lightly raced but rapidly improving. He went from running 70/80 level Beyers to having three straight mid-90's numbers. Figures aren't everything, but that type of growth and consistency as he's gotten older is telling. He wasn't far off of the talented Motorious at Del Mar last out and gets the dangerous Dettori aboard. 0-fer at Keeneland only 1-for-7 at the distance, however.

#6 - Nobals: The defending Breeders' Cup champ is yet to hit the money in only two starts this year. He clearly needed the one at Saratoga and did take a step forward last time out at Kentucky Downs, but still faltered behind Cogburn. Without the divisional leader present he is capable of returning to form third start off the layoff, and is probably better at this distance.

#7 - Let My People Go: Cross-entered at Woodbine today and I'm not sure what spot he's hitting. He's much slower than the best in this field, is only 1-for-8 at the distance, and only 1-for-12 on the turf.

#8 - Souper Quest: Made himself known two back when winning a salty allowance at Saratoga, beating a field that featured Nobals and Our Shot, and posted a 97 Beyer. He then was only narrowly denied after being apart of the pace by Big Invasion last time out. He'll try to enforce the early pace, which presents an overall murky picture outside of him.

#9 - Coppola: This Dale Romans trainee has danced a lot of dances this season, coming close in quite a few but failing to break through at the biggest levels. The Kentucky Downs effort was very disappointing but he's probably much better than that. Hard to see how he can turn the tables on some of these types, but he's capable of being around late.

#10 - Arzak: It was in this race a year ago that Arzak broke out and then he was only beaten 2 lengths in the Breeders' Cup. He returned to Keeneland this spring to win the G2 Shakertown S. but has dropped three decisions since. The regression from some of his career bests is a concern, but he has to be upgraded coming back to a track he clearly loves.

#11 - Gear Jockey: Once one of the better runners in this division, his only run this year was a subpar effort at Kentucky Downs. He really does seem like he's better at 6 furlongs or longer too, so it's hard to give him love in this spot with such little recency and not under optimal conditions.

#12 - Xy Speed: This Florida-based runner lit up their turf course in the spring, running some insanely sharp numbers that included a 102 Beyer. A layoff and a brutal early pace scenario saw him struggle to finish things off at Monmouth last time out against weaker, but he should be better with the run under his belt. I do appreciate outside draws in turf sprints as it'll allow the rider to play the break effectively, which will benefit this versatile runner.

AE#13 - Determined Kingdom: He's won 4 of his last 6 starts against weaker, and while he's been sharp he's also been much slower than the number necessary to win this race. His runs in races at this level long ago weren't particularly strong either. He should have a say in the early pace, however, which will benefit off the pace types if ridden as expected.

AE#14 - Hedwig: This 3-year-old seems to have potential but disappointed massively in the G1 Franklin-Simpson S. last time out. He beat elders two back in allowance company, however it only yielded an 86 Beyer. One for next year, perhaps.

AE#15 - Foxtrotanna: Has struggled to consistently impact overnight races and is far off the speed of these rivals.

The Choice - #12 Xy Speed (12-1 ML)

Let's take a shot in this wide open event. His races from the spring can absolutely compete in here - he did beat Souper Quest three back - and everything about that last start at Monmouth worked against him. The key will be an off the pace trip today.

Race 7 - The G2 TCA S.

6 Furlongs // Dirt // 3 Year Olds & Up Fillies & Mares

#1 - Clearly Unhinged: About as consistent as can be in four starts this year since switching to the Steve Asmussen barn. She opened her 2024 season with a pair of wins before close placing efforts behind talented mares in real tough races. Certainly a player if she can run another one of those consistent races.

#2 - Anywho: Ships in from California on the heels of three straight stakes losses. Her allowance win at Churchill Downs in May was so strong but we haven’t seen her run anything as visually impressive since. While losing to Sweet Azteca the last two outings isn’t shameful, it’s not like she was dominating everyone else.

#3 -Brightwork: The Grade 1 winning juvenile got her sophomore campaign off to a strong start with a win in the G3 Prioress last out. That was an impressive effort given how long she’d been off and you only think she can get better with the start under her belt. Should be able to sit any trip she wants in this race.

#4 - Spirit Wind: Was on the brink of establishing herself as one of the better in the division before a bad performance at Charles Town last time out. I’m willing to look past that. The bullrings are tricky and she looked super strong in her two wins prior to that. She should be the one setting the pace here but it’ll be interesting to see how everyone else establishes position around her.

#5 - Run for the Hills: After running only on turf and synthetic for most of her career, this Casse trainee hopped on dirt for the Open Mind at Churchill last time. She set the pace that day but folded up down the lane, not really suggesting the class jump will suit her. Tactically is important to this race if she goes forward again, which she didn’t do on the turf as much.

#6 - Zeitlos: This improving type won that Open Mind S. from last-to-first. She’s taken her last three dirt starts and even put up a 94 Beyer back in May when winning. She’s plenty talented and capable of winning this, but does need the pace to backup in a race maybe lacking that much speed.

#7 - Red Carpet Ready: 3rd in the G1 Madison S. over this course this spring, she’s getting back on the dirt after a pair of turf starts. She has strong enough races to go back on to take this race, most notably her win in the G3 Hurricane Bertie S. in March, but obviously there’s reason for concern on the recent form.

The Choice - #4 Spirit Wind (7/2 ML)

I’m banking on her getting a clear cut lead here early and never looking back. She’s 6-for-7 going three-quarters and Mike Smith is still plenty capable on a speed horse.

Race 8 - The G1 First Lady S.

1 Mile // Turf // 3 Year Olds & Up Fillies & Mares

#1 - Fluffy Socks: The veteran mare found the winners circle in May when winning the G3 Gallorette S., but outside of that has disappointed for most of the year. She needs a setup for her off the pace style, which isn’t impossible here, but even then you have to think there are better closers.

#2 - Tarawa: This Irish shipper is mighty intriguing for the famed conditioner, Dermot Weld. She comes off a sharp G3 win at the Curragh and before that ran a good 2nd against the boys at the same level, only losing to serious Breeders’ Cup Mile contender, Diego Velazquez. Should love the long stretch that Keeneland provides.

#3 - Safeen: If you followed along with the Kentucky Downs Journal last month, you’ll know my affinity for this filly and how nicely she paid when winning the One Dreamer S. last time out. While that was a heady win and Luis Saez is back aboard to put her on the lead, this is probably a touch too tough.

#4 - Gina Romantica: The defending champ in this spot is 0-for-5 since that win. Granted they’ve been tough spots, but it’s still concerning she’s failed to replicate that career best performance from a year ago. The pace has worked against her in the last two starts, both losses to stablemates, so there’s certainly good reason for the last two narrow defeats.

#5 - Walkathon: This filly has just kept getting better as she’s aged, proved fully when winning the G3 Ladies Turf at Kentucky Downs and throwing a triple digit Beyer. The key today will be sitting just off the early pace in a race filled with a few speedballs. If she can, her recent efforts suggest there’s no reason she can’t win.

#6 - Evvie Jets: A G2 winner in 2023 and 3rd in this race a year ago, she’s struggled to consistently stick with the division’s best this season. Her best efforts tend to come on the lead, which is why she was beaten less than a length in the G1 Just A Game S. in June, but I don’t see her getting to the front this go round.

#7 - Special Wan: The word was good on this Irish filly as she shipped in for an allowance at Kentucky Downs most recently, a race she easily won from well back despite the small margin of victory suggesting otherwise. This is a big jump up in class, however, and she only threw an 83 Beyer for her efforts. She has good G3 experience from Europe but this is still much tougher.

#8 - Chili Flag: A three-time graded stakes winner this year and a G1 winner two back in the Just A Game. She’s a pure miler, which is why the G1 Diana last out didn’t go her way. I expect a much improved effort off the layoff today — no reason to worry about that with the Brown barn — but she will have to outkick the other closers.

#9 - Implicated: After two sharp wins to begin the year she disappointed when 11th as the favorite in the G3 Ladies Turf at Kentucky Downs. I’m willing to chalk that up to not handling the track there, but it’s still hard to say the two wins prior to that are good enough to win this race. Gaffalione also spurns his main man Walsh to ride Chad Brown’s Chili Flag for the first time. Improvement is needed.

#10 - Ag Bullet: The silver bullet absolutely throttled the G2 Ladies Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs last time out, posting a 106 Beyer! It was a stellar win for a horse who does her best work sprinting, but she is still a two time winner in minor stakes company at a mile. She will likely open up a large lead on the rest of her foes early, the question will be if she can carry that over a Keeneland turf course that doesn’t always play well to speed.

#11 - Whitebeam: One more Chad Brown entry, she won the G1 Diana last time out. While talented and capable of hanging with anyone in this field, I wonder if she’s better going a little longer than a mile. The numbers certainly indicate it, as she’s 0-for-4 over a flat mile in the U.S. and 3-for-4 going any other longer distance. Still, she can play in this spot and is at minimum an underneath contender.

The Choice - Gina Romantica (3-1 ML)

It’s taken her a while to round into form in 2023, but with a seemingly favorable pace scenario on paper I think she can take this race for the second straight year.

Race 9 - The G1 Breeders’ Futurity

1 1/16th Miles // Dirt // 2 Year Olds

#1 - Ferocious: In my eyes the most talented juvenile in the country. He didn’t get a perfect trip in the G1 Hopeful and still ran his eyeballs out, only losing to a talented colt in Chancer McPatrick in a closer favoring race. He should get a perfect pocket trip and relish the stretch out to two bends.

#2 - Saratoga Cruiser: Was pretty visually impressive breaking his maiden around two turns on debut, but a lot of improvement is needed to even get a piece today.

#3 - Optical: Turned a lot of heads when finally breaking his maiden in start number four most recently. He was sent to the lead for the first time in career and blossomed, winning by 14 lengths. Even though it was auction-restricted company he clearly has ability and isn’t illogical today.

#4 - Handsome Pants: If Kenny McPeek is sending out a debut winner, take notice. This colt debuted over 8.5 furlongs and handled it like a pro, sitting off the pace and rallying very nicely to win by a strong length and change. An 81 Beyer backed up that visually impressive performance and he’s probably the best off the pace type in this spot.

#5 - East Avenue: The word was good on this well bred colt on debut and he lived up to it, winning by 8 easy lengths. He should love the added ground and probably sits a very solid trip off the hip of Optical early. It’ll just be a question if he can outkick the other talented colt sin here.

#6 - Filoso: A solid debut in a very productive Saratoga maiden led into a maiden win in his second start, going a mile at the Spa. He did it easily, comfortably settling off the pace before striking and winning for fun. He’s a little slower on paper than a few others in here but you can’t knock that he relishes added ground.

#7 - Mesero: A Dale Romans debut winner is even more shocking than a McPeek one, but this guy did it. His win didn’t come back figure fast so he was disregarded in the G3 Iroquois, yet he closed up nicely to fill out the super. I think there’s some talent with this colt, but today I don’t think the race flows towards his closing style.

#8 - Big Boat: A tough read given he only broke his maiden three weeks ago. It was only over 6 furlongs and few have run back from it to tell us how productive it was. He finished up like a horse who can handle the ground and has the pedigree to stretch out, but there’s probably better propositions here.

#9 - Tenacious Leader: Returns to the dirt after a desperate neck loss in the G3 With Anticipation S. on grass last time out. He’s already proven multiple times he can handle a route of ground, breaking his maiden at a mile on dirt and then running well in that stakes. It’s hard to say how good he is given he hasn’t faced the best of this crop yet, but he’s at least experienced.

#10 - Dapper Moon: Owns the highest last out Beyer in the field, tied with Ferocious with an 87. His maiden win was impressive going 7/8ths at Saratoga, sitting the perfect stalking trip before blowing that field out of the water. His loss on debut was also a quality second behind G1 placed Incentive Pay. This guy will stretch out well but could lose ground with the outside post.

#11 - Ready For Peace: Makes his dirt debut for the Nacho Correas barn. His maiden win on debut was visually pretty solid and then he backed it up with a decent 3rd in stakes company at Kentucky Downs. While he seems promising this water is probably too deep.

The Choice - #1 Ferocious (8/5 ML)

If this colt wasn’t here, I don’t know how I’d land on a top choice. This is an insanely competitive and talented group. However, I think Ferocious is different gravy and I’m going to bank on that today to make my life easier.

Race 10 - The G1 Coolmore Turf Mile

1 Mile // Turf // 3 Year Olds & Up

#1 - Mountain Bear: If Aidan O’Brien is shipping over for a race like this, you know the runner is live. While winless this year, he has some serious performances this season. That includes his G2 placing last time out to Diego Velazquez and only being beaten 2 lengths in the G3 Jersey S. at Royal Ascot. He knows American configurations thanks to his 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last time. A serious contender.

#2 - Kikkuli: Another Euro Shipper, Kikkuli actually finished in front of Mountain Bear when 2nd in the Jersey, beaten only a nose. He’s disappointed in his last two starts, however, losing as the favorite in both G1 and G2 company recently. However, he went close last time out and deserves every bit of respect despite some solid American runners today.

#3 - More Than Looks: Ran well on seasonal debut when 2nd in the G1 Fourstardave in August. He had to close into a rather paceless race that day, yet still finished up nicely. He should be much improved today but still has to find a way to turn the tables on Carl Spackler and handle the new faces.

#4 - Running Bee: The first of three Chad Brown trainees, this guy comes off a stakes victory in the Bernard Baruch at Saratoga. While almost always competitive and presenting decent figures, he’s never ventured into G1 company until today, and this is a pretty tough spot to start.

#5 - Noises Off: Takes a huge jump up in class as this is his graded stakes debut. He’s had a very consistent season with a pair of wins and three placings in 5 starts, but this is just a brutal spot to get going. He was less than a length off of eventual G3 winner and Breeders’ Cup Mile contender, Goliad, for what it’s worth in that last start.

#6 - Talk of the Nation: The likely speed of this race, this hard knocking colt is also trying to turn the tables on Carl Spackler. Even when he’s been pace advantaged he’s failed to capitalize on that foe. Still can be considered an underneath contender today.

#7 - Cash Equity: Always a decent runner when based out west but he’s taken a firm jump since joining the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn. He comes off a career best when 2nd, beaten only a length in the G3 Mint Millions at Kentucky Downs. That warranted a 100 Beyer, the second highest last out number in the race, but this is still a hefty class jump.

#8 - Spirit of St. Louis: The dominant New York-bred finally leaps into open company today. Even though he comes off a loss, it was only a nose, and before that he’d been beating whoever was put in his way against statebreds. With his mid-to-high 90 Beyers throughout his career, it’s feasible to think he can at least grab a piece here.

#9 - Carl Spackler: The top miler on the east coast only has one blip in four starts this year, and the last two efforts would make him dangerous in a race like the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He threw a 105 when devastating the G1 Fourstardave field, and has beaten the other top U.S. based contenders on multiple occasions. If he brings his best he’ll be tough.

The Choice - #9 Carl Spackler (2-1 ML)

He is clearly one of the best, if not THE best, milers in this country and I believe he’ll get a better setup than the two Euros.