The Keeneland Journal - October 4th, 2024
By Eric DeCoster (@ericdecoster_ on X)
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Friday, October 4th, 2024 - Day 1 of 17
The Lowdown
Welcome to another season of The Keeneland Journal! This is the fifth meet in a row I’ve been able to bring you my thoughts from my favorite track to play, and with every meet I get more excited to write these up.
This weekend is also one of my favorites on the racing calendar, with multiple graded stakes over the next three days that will each have major Breeders’ Cup implications. They also usually present a solid handicapping challenge that we sometimes lack at the higher levels of U.S. racing. So we should be in for a tricky, fun, and sometimes frustrating weekend!
If you’re newer to ITM Plus and haven’t read along before, I open up every meet with certain connections to watch over the next few weeks before diving into my three main plays of the day. These plays are a blend of what I believe are my handicapping strengths and where I believe I can find the best value for my buck - in large field maiden races and races where the pace most likely flows against a well regarded horse or two.
I also provide previews and opinions of the major races on each card. This meet I will follow PTF’s lead and provide horse-by-horse thoughts on every graded stakes race carded. I think this is the best way to fully fledge out my thoughts on a race, is the most digestible way for you all the follow along with, and also gives you the most bang for your buck. I hope you all like that format and unless I hear negative feedback otherwise, we’ll roll with that from here on out. Let’s dive in to opening day!
Who to Follow
Jockeys
Jose Ortiz - Ortiz moved his tack to Kentucky earlier this year beginning with the spring meet, and all he died was tie for 2nd in wins. He had a strong summer at both Churchill and Saratoga but has gone cold over the last month. At the short Churchill September meet he could only muster a 13% win rate and ranked 6th in wins. It’ll be interesting to see how he bounces back from a surprising cold run after such a hot start on the circuit.
Irad Ortiz Jr. - Irad was the most active he’s been in years this spring at Keeneland, decisively taking the riding title. He’ll spend opening weekend in New York but is booked here next Wednesday and Thursday. At the end of the day, you know he’ll get his fair share, it just remains to be seen how much that will effect the price of horses as the meet goes on.
Tyler Gaffalione & Luis Saez - These two had dominated the standings over the past 2-3 years before this spring. Gaffalione has been the perennial champ in Kentucky for years now, recently adding another title at Churchill Downs, but was tied-2nd in the spring here behind Irad and equal with Jose. Saez has actually had a somewhat down year in general, with most of his #’s down across the board. He only won at 10% in the spring here while having the 2nd most rides. He did round back in to form at the recently concluded Churchill meet, finishing 2nd in wins behind only Gaffalione.
Local riders - In general, riders who base their tack at Ellis Park over the summer and those who spend the entire year on this circuit have a big drop off when moving to Keeneland. It doesn’t come as a big surprise when the aforementioned riders are in town, but the drop off is so large that it’s worth a mention. Riders who’ve won a lot of races at Ellis in recent years and win at only around 10% over the same time frame at Keeneland include Rafael Bejarano Gerardo Corrales, Cristian Torres, Francisco Arrieta, and Luan Machado.
Bejarano is coming off a tremendous Churchill meet that saw him win at 21% and finish 3rd in the standings, so we’ll see if he can carry that momentum over.
Trainers
Brad Cox & Wesley Ward - Like Tyler Gaffalione & Luis Saez, this duo tends to find themselves dominating the trainer standings. Last fall Cox ran away with things (13 wins vs. Chad Brown’s 7 wins in 2nd), but Ward tied-7th with only 5 wins over the course of the meet. He bounced back by winning the spring title and should continue hitting at a strong rate this year.
Brendan Walsh - Walsh is always one of the most potent trainers at Keeneland and is enjoying a very strong year on the circuit, including tying for the title at Kentucky Downs. He is always one of the trainers I look for on a day-to-day basis and routinely has the benefit of top rider Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. He hit a small road bump at Churchill, but at the same time the best of his stock was prepping for this meet rather than running.
Ian Wilkes - Wilkes is on an insane heater, by his standards, over the past three Keeneland meets. He’s won 13-of-78 starts (16.67% win rate) and has finished in the money 41% of the time. For a program that’s pretty developmental, and as a result pretty low percentage, these are eye popping numbers to keep in mind as the meet goes on.
Kenny McPeek - As you all know, McPeek is having a career year and this spring he enjoyed one of his best Keeneland meets in a while by winning at 25%. That’s a big jump from the low teens, high single digit percentages he’d been putting up prior to that. The ROI was mighty strong too - $4.40 for your $2 efforts - and only one winner went off lower than 3-1. We’ll see if his big 2024 can continue this month.
Rusty Arnold - The past calendar year hasn’t treated this barn well at Keeneland. Arnold is a combined 1-for-43 at the past two meets, hitting the board in 17 of those events (39.5%). 17 of those 43 runners have also gone off at 10-1 or less, so it isn’t like these are hopeless longshots either. His barn is about as active as any over the first week, so we’ll see if he can break the slump early.
Maiden Play of the Day
Race 2 - #5 Coalmoon (10-1 ML)
I make this choice fully acknowledging that likely favorite #8 West Beach will be tough to beat, but I think it’s fair to hunt for some value in a big field over this course.
Both of Coalmoon’s first two starts played out very similarly. He sat in the back part of each race, well off of firmly contested paces, before providing a strong kick late in the game to grab a small piece late. The most previous race at Kentucky Downs was better than the debut, as he made his move earlier than the race at Ellis and only missed by three-parts of a length in the end. He improved his Beyer by 12 points and looked like an improved horse visually while losing to the well regarded Fleming. Now in start three he should be due for another jump forward for a Paulo Lobo barn that does great work with 2 year olds.
Pace Play of the Day
Race 5 - #9 Stylish Sue (8-1 ML)
This second level allowance race going 9 furlongs on the grass lacks much capable pace outside of Stylish Sue.
It is likely that Belterra shipper #7 For the Biscuit will carve out the early fractions, but she is far below the quality of this field. That should allow for Stylish Sue to not sit far off of her in the early stages and truly dictate paces early. Outside of her, basically every other horse in this race is a confirmed off-the-pace type. The one exception could be #10 Olivia Maralda, the likely horse to beat on ability, as she was closer up when 2nd in the G1 Gamely S. in May. However, she’s come from off-the-pace in three of her other four U.S. starts, and even if she isn’t far off of Stylish Sue early I don’t know how much better she really is than the rest in here. Her Gamely performance was an anomaly in an otherwise very mundane Beyer pattern compared to the rest of her competition today.
That leaves me firmly on Stylish Sue, who on her best day can run the figure necessary to win this race, gets a necessary cutback in distance, and is certain to get a heads up ride under Frankie Dettori.
Best Bet
Race 10 - #7 Cloudwalker (4-1 ML)
Cloudwalker returns to the site of her impressive maiden-breaking score last fall in this salty allowance race. The nightcap over 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass goes for 3 year old fillies who have never won a graded stakes, but plenty of these types have quality stakes experience.
This filly is one of those horses, having earned stakes placings over the summer that sandwiched a first-level allowance win at Churchill in June. Last time out connections took a shot around two turns in New York stakes company and it went very poorly, but Cloudwalker should re-find that form from an otherwise very consistent career here. She should be capable from a figure perspective, and the few who have consistently posted better numbers than her could find themselves apart of a hot early pace. That should set up well for this filly’s sharp, late closing style that helped her break that aforementioned maiden over course & distance at this same meet last year.
Feature Race Roundup
Race 7 - The G2 Phoenix S.
6 Furlongs // Dirt // 3 Year Olds & Up
#1 - Federal Judge (3-1 ML): Lightly raced but has done nothing but perform throughout career. Has to get a touch faster but certainly can. Should handle return to graded stakes just fine and has opportunity to control speed from the rail.
#2 - Here Mi Song (6-1 ML): One of my favorite horses in training right now, this gelding has been such a consistent trier for years now. He especially loves this Keeneland could - 4 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds - and is coming off back-to-back career best Beyers. He’s probably best going 7 furlongs, but he’ll be rolling late no matter what.
#3 - My Buddy B (8-1 ML): Took a tremendous jump forward when posting a career high 97 Beyer last out at Parx. Was claimed for only $25k back in March and has surpassed six figures in earnings this year. However, was dusted by Nakatomi two back. Big pace factor.
#4 - Nakatomi (7/5 ML): Likely favorite earned G1 honors winning the Vanderbilt last time out. He runs well fresh, a good example being a close 2nd in this race a year ago with a similar amount of time between races. Also 3-for-5 over this track. Price might not be super gratifying but you can’t deny he’s reached the upper echelon of dirt sprinters.
#5 - Comedy Town (4-1 ML): Another horse claimed for only $25k in March! He’s rattled off three straight wins since moving from synthetic to dirt and posted a triple digit Beyer two starts ago. Regressed 10 points last time out, but it was still a win and it was over a muddy track. Big acid test but the sky seems to be the limit right now.
#6 - Banjo Chris (30-1 ML): Ran a decent 2nd in straight 3-year-old allowance company last time out, but that only garnered an 84 Beyer. Still first level allowance eligible in some regions. Out of place.
#7 - Swirvin (20-1 ML): Seemingly the B horse for the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn. He’s ran solid races all-in-all but doesn’t have that standout performance to make sense in this spot. He’s struggled, for the most part, in stakes company during his career. Will be apart of the pace situation under the capable speed hands of Luis Saez.
#8 - Manny Wah (15-1 ML): On his best day he could win this race because, well, he literally did win this race on his best day back in 2022. However, he is winless since that day and has struggled to be competitive in two starts since switching barns from Will Walden to John Ennis. Only way he can factor is with a massive pace meltdown.
The Choice - #1 Federal Judge (3-1 ML)
Speed of the speed should have the chance to take this field all the way. Improving with every start for the right connections. Will keep #2 Here Mi Song (6-1 ML) involved for the minors.
Race 8 - The G2 Jessamine S.
1 1/16th Miles // Turf // 2 Year Old Fillies
#1 - Shezafunkydrummer (8-1 ML): Ran a solid race on the front end last time out before being worn down in stakes company at Kentucky Downs. There’s a lot of ability here but you have to wonder with her running style and pedigree if sprinting is more her forte. Will need to have things her own way early.
#2 - Isle of Capri (9/2 ML): A sharp maiden breaking debut at Kentucky Downs will leave her well backed here. It was so recent and so dominant that it’s hard to say what she beat, but it yielded a decent 72 Beyer as well. Will be interesting to see how well she wrangles that early speed in as she stretches out in distance.
#3 - Sashay Away (20-1 ML): Had a lot to do and not enough time to do it when 5th in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies. Seems like she can run all day but needs the speed to back up for her to compete for the win. Gaffalione opted for Isle of Capri over this one.
#4 - Somethinabouther (20-1 ML): 6th in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies without an apparent excuse. Maiden win two back at Ellis was solid going two turns but left me wanting more next time out, which I didn’t see. Another one Gaffalione probably could have ridden and didn’t.
#5 - Mechaya (15-1 ML): Another Kentucky Downs alum, this one broke her maiden going 6 1/2 furlongs over that course on debut. It was another sharp, wire-to-wire score, meaning she’s another who has to figure out how to ration out that speed while adding distance and a turn.
#6 - Destino d’Oro (3-1 ML): The most impressive Kentucky Downs maiden-breaking filly of the year in most people’s eyes. She did it going a mile on debut, coming from well off the pace, and scorching home to dominate her rivals. She also threw a mighty strong 77 Beyer for her efforts. If she can sit a trouble free trip she should be flying late.
#7 - Ballerina d’Oro (8-1 ML): Chad Brown’s lone representative in a race he’s won twice, including in 2017 with future Breeders’ Cup champ, Rushing Fall. Ballerina d’Oro also came from Kentucky Downs where she broke her maiden. It was hard earned and still a little unprofessional, so there’s credit to be had in getting the job done. However, you’d have still wanted a little more from her leading into such a big spot.
#8 - May Day Ready (8-1 ML): Two wins, two starts, both going around a mile on the grass. She looked really sharp taking out the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies. Even though she’s a little light on figures she’s done everything else right and Frankie Dettori stays aboard.
#9 - Totally Justified (6-1 ML): Jumped up and broke her maiden in the PG Johnson at Saratoga last time, her first start on grass. She beat a field full of well regarded horses who had already won before, so the talent under these conditions is evident. She’ll need to get a little better but is liable to do so and should get a pretty stalking trip in here.
#10 - Italian Soiree (20-1 ML): The blinkers come off this G3-placed filly after looking uncomfy early on in her last two starts with them on. She ran a good race behind the talented The Queens MG two back and then got caught in the Mark Casse-dominated G1 Natalma most recently. I think she’s run two good races in a row while needing to get better slightly, and I wonder if that growth can come with the equipment change.
#11 - Miss Lonelle (15-1 ML): Another Kentucky Downs maiden winner. She did it going the sprinting distance of 6 1/2 furlongs, but unlike the other two fillies in this spot to do that she did it from off the pace. She should benefit from the added ground here but talent is the biggest question.
#12 - Correto (8-1 ML): One more for the road, yet another filly who made their most recent start in a Kentucky Downs maiden and won. She sat a good pressing trip over 7 furlongs, made the move when it mattered, and drew off to a decent win. She posted a 72 Beyer in this spot, which makes her mighty competitive, and will relish every bit of distance she can get as a daughter of English Channel out of a Kitten’s Joy mare. The outside post is a killer, though.
The Choice - #8 May Day Ready (8-1 ML)
2-year-olds and Beyers are tricky. I’m trusting what this one’s done visually and who she’s beaten to this point over the lofty figures from others in here from their maiden breaking efforts.
Race 9 - The G1 Alcibiades S.
1 1/16th Miles // Dirt // 2 Year Old Fillies
#1 - Continuity: 2-for-2 sprinting at Colonial Downs and now jumps into the deep end for Eddie Kenneally. She threw a pretty lofty 79 Beyer for the class and course she was at, which I’m sure could see her take some action. Given the rail draw and stretch out I’m sure she’ll find herself on the lead.
#2 - Sherbini: Placed in two stakes at the Spa this summer, including the Grade 1 Spinaway last out. She comes from extremely far out of it in her races, but has always brought a good closing kick. This suggests she should stretch out well - probably gets a lot better, actually - but will need to turn the tables on Quietside and Immersive. Mark Casse is always potent with juvenile fillies and this year has been no exception.
#3 - Liam in the Dust: Ran a brave race in the G3 Pocahontas S. at a mild price, losing by less than a length. That race was loaded with speed and she was right up in the fight, but somehow stuck around when everyone else kicked it until getting caught by a closer late. She’s bred to get better the further she goes, her 7 furlong debut win being a good example of her stamina, so the two turns intrigues.
#4 - Rich City Girl: Another stretching out in distance after all three outings came sprinting. She’s won 2-of-3, the lone loss being over 7 furlongs after dueling for the lead early on. Plenty of ability but questions arise about the distance and how she’ll handle the inside pace pressure.
#5 - The Queens M G: Scratching to run in the G1 Frizette on Saturday.
#6 - Quickick: Exits a pair of 7 furlong maidens at Saratoga, winning the most recent effort. Her debut was a very credible, albeit distant, 3rd place finish before taking a strong step forward second out. She sat a comfortable stalking trip before pouncing into the stretch and drawing off nicely. She’ll stretch out well but will have to prove herself in her first start against winners.
#7 - Quietside: Suffered a tough beat when 2nd as the favorite in the G1 Spinaway. She did much of the dirty work that day before being run down by Immersive. She’ll attend the early pace today but needs to be able to stalk effectively while also likely losing ground on the first turn. Fastest horse in the race on aggregate with a pair of 80+ Beyers. Bred to enjoy this distance.
#8 - Immersive: I wasn’t surprised to see Immersive win a Grade 1, I was just surprised to see her do it around one turn. Her maiden win was a lot sharper than any figure indicates, but also suggested what her pedigree tells - the further, the better. Yet, in the G1 Spinaway, she was able to display the turn of kick necessary to grab that top level victory, and now she should take tremendous jump up in a race that suits her best.
The Choice - #8 Immersive (2-1 ML)
If this filly was able to score a G1 win going 7/8ths, it’s scary to think what she could do at the distance and configuration she should be best at.