The Keeneland Journal - April 5th, 2024
By: Eric DeCoster
Day 1 of 16 - Friday, April 5th, 2024
The Lowdown
The Keeneland Journal makes it’s return for the 2024 Spring Meet! If you are a long time ITM Plus subscriber, you have likely seen these daily write-ups over the past few years, and I am excited for another few weeks of tackling my favorite track to handicap.
As has been custom, I will cover some of the names to follow as the meet goes along, then dive into the featured races on the card, before giving my three spot plays of the day. Something that will be new to this year’s Keeneland Journal that last fall’s Kentucky Downs Journal readers are familiar with are a pair of “Where Did They Come From?” segments. One of these will cover where horses made their last starts and tracking whether one track or circuit is producing more winners at Keeneland than others. Then, we will take a look at how the track played in following days to see if there are any biases to consider for the upcoming card.
One final note before diving into this wonderful opening day card. This meet’s journal will only feature coverage of Friday through Sunday cards, so be sure to look at the inthemoneypodcast.com blog page for more weekday Keeneland coverage. There will also be more weekend analysis on ITM Plus all meet long provided by Will Humphrey, looking at major race trends and horses to follow.
Who to Watch
Jose Ortiz - One of the bigger storylines leading into this meet is Jose Ortiz moving his tack to Kentucky for the first time. The former Eclipse Award winning rider comes off a Gulfstream Championship meet where he was second in wins behind brother Irad. While he has only ridden big days here and there at this track, it is worth nothing he is only 9-for-90 (10%) at Keeneland over the last five meets.
Steve Asmussen - There is no doubt that the country’s all-time leading trainer can win anywhere, at any time, but his record at Keeneland in the spring is something to note heading into the next month. He has only won 2 from 55 starts (3.6% strike rate) at the last three Keeneland Spring meets. This is significant given the barn went 12-for-83 (14.46%) at the 2022 and 2023 Fall Meets, so there is clearly a difference in what he is bringing to the table this time of year.