The Crossover - Superb Owl Edition
Horse Racing and Sports
I realize it’s been a while, but what better time to reboot this?
I had a change of plans that allowed me to write a bit.
Review of Last Time:
✅ 12/21 - #16 Purdue at #2 Auburn / Auburn -9.5 -114
❌ 12/21 - Tampa Bay Downs - Race 6: 2 - FLEETINGLY 5/2 ML
✅ 12/22 Jordan Addison First TD Scorer +800 (20%)
❌ 12/22 Mike Evans First TD Scorer +650 (40%)
✅ 12/22 Jahmyr Gibbs First TD Scorer +275 (40%)
❌ Super Bowl Matchup: Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles +1400
❌ Super Bowl Matchup: Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles +850
✅ Super Bowl Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles +1100
❌ Georgia +1.5 vs. Notre Dame -110
Two of the above wagers were guaranteed losers. That was part of the strategy.
Hopefully, you got some value out of the last edition. I wish I had revisited my original handicap of the Lions when they faced the Commanders.
As I see it, the Lions have an injury problem that is getting worse each week. They now have several key players that will not return this year. They’ve done remarkable to date, but it’s starting to show. Even if you buy into the “next guy up” mentality, they have another HUGE problem, in my opinion. The Lions give up the MOST rushing yards/play to opposing QBs in the NFL - 6.52 yards per attempt.
Given their likely path to the Super Bowl, that spells trouble. They could be forced to play the Commanders if they don’t secure the number 1 seed in the NFC. If they survive that, and make it to the NFC Championship game, another mobile QB is likely waiting (Hurts) to play spoiler.
I never pulled the trigger on Commander’s ML, which proved costly. On to the next.
⛳️ ♻️ - Waste Management Phoenix Open
If you’d like more golf content, please let me know.
In terms of Venn Diagrams, I know there’s a lot of overlap between Horse Players and Sports Gamblers. I’m less sure about how many of you are golf fans. But, from a wagering perspective, I’d argue that all of you should be considering golf.
There are so many parallels between Horse Racing and Golf. A few:
20-1+ Winners are common
Weather impacts outcome
Course Record and Horse for Course Concept
Analytics and Data (Golf wins by a WIDE margin)
Multiple Ways to Wager
Outright = Win
Placement Market = Place/Show
Golf has many more options
Equipment Changes are important
Trainers (swing trainers in golf) impact results
Career Maidens vs. “No Win Equity” in Golf
You get the point. The main difference is that horse racing sweat typically lasts around two minutes, while a golf sweat can often last four days!
Scottie Scheffler isn’t close to Tiger Woods in terms of recognizability outside of golf fans, but his recent record is arguably on par with Tiger in his prime. He’s good. His ascension started in earnest at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in 2022.
Around Christmas time, Scottie suffered a minor hand injury when using a wine glass as a ravioli tool (his words, not mine). He missed some time after the procedure but returned to competitive golf last week. He finished inside the T10. It was disappointing for him, but considering the circumstances, it was probably equally disappointing for the rest of the field. Because, in terms of ball striking, Scottie looks to be mostly unfazed by his injury and that spells trouble for the rest of the tour. Notably, he led the field last week in one of the most important metrics - Strokes Gained: Approach.
Scottie won this event in 2022 and 2023. He was Third last year. That means only two golfers have bested him in this event over the past three years. And his odds reflect that. While he could have been found at +350 on Sunday, he’s now closer to +275 at most books. No matter how stout his record, that’s hard to swallow. Undoubtedly, he’s the most likely winner.
Scheffler’s weak spot (relative terms here) is typically his putter. But the TPC Scottsdale was seemingly made for Scottie’s game, and he’s had some of his best putting performances at this venue. After sufficiently answering the question of how significant his injury would impact his game, the only thing you can knock about Scottie this week is his price.
We’ll get creative with him in a bit.
What about the rest of the field?
This is a solid group, with several having significant course history and others playing the best golf of their career. From an analytics perspective, some profiles or features can guide our selections. Modeling is commonly used in golf. You’re essentially trying to see what has worked in the past at a given event and figure out who best fits the profile.
The Waste Management Phoenix Open is known as the People’s Major. It’s always on Super Bowl Weekend, and it tends to get rowdy. Specifically, Hole 16. Since this isn’t your typical PGA Tour crowd, in terms of behavior, for this event you must factor in course characteristics and the players’s ability to handle the crowd distractions.
I typically run a few models with different parameters and see which guys stick out. One version might emphasize course history, and the next might not consider it at all (since some players will have no previous history).
As I said before, I’m not against Scottie Scheffler this week. I will bet him (just not straight).
In golf, there is a market that is widely available, called “Winner without.” - This week, we are focusing on the Winner Without Scottie Scheffler market. It’s pretty self-explanatory. You’re picking the best finisher in the tournament as if Scottie wasn’t playing. If Scottie wins and your golfer finishes runner-up - You cash. If your golfer wins, obviously you still cash.
There is a premium to pay in terms of price. But in some instances, this being one, I think it’s worth it. After all, most of the golfers we are considering will be 40-1 or more.
The Golfers I’m considering in the Winner Without Scottie Scheffler:
Nick Taylor +4500
Andrew Novak +6000
Lucas Glover +5500
Min Woo Lee +5000
Luke Clanton +4500
Nick Taylor has already won in 2025. And he comes here as the defending champion after finishing runner-up here in 2023. To be clear, his course history was poor before 2023. But he comes into this week playing, arguably, the best golf of his career (green = good).
His price isn’t consistent with his profile, history, or win equity. This event has been won in a playoff six of the last nine times. Nick Taylor has never lost a playoff (3-0) so you know he has plenty of win equity. Finally, he’s got the ability to go LOW, which is always an asset.
Andrew Novak can’t putt. And within reason, that doesn’t matter around here. He’s hitting the ball well and his game should play in Scottsdale. He finished T8 here last year and has some momentum following his T13 finish last week at Pebble Beach.
Lucas Glover is another golfer who usually can’t putt, but he seems to have found some life with his new broomstick putter. He left several shots on the course last weekend after failing to hit a few putts. Overall, it was better than his baseline putting, but as someone who had an outright at 250-1, I couldn’t help but wonder what might have been. Negative regression in terms of putting is possible, but Glover has a solid enough course history, and his recent form suggests he should be right there this week.
Min Woo Lee is a crowd favorite. He didn’t play great here last year in his debut, but his form is significantly better this year. He’s semi-local (lives in Vegas), and some of his strengths, specifically long irons, should play well here.
Luke Clanton is on the verge of securing his PGA Tour Card. If he makes the cut, mission accomplished. But this amateur is a future star, and simply making the cut is not his goal this week. Clanton hits it long and straight but can also putt. He’s from Hialeah, Florida, so maybe a sentimental root for you horse players. When you look at past winners, he shares many of the same strengths. *He’s not the only amateur with a chance, as Jose Luis Ballester from ASU might be a name that pops up on the leaderboards this weekend.
Placement Markets:
Nick Taylor T20 (Including Ties) +190
Lucas Glover T20 (Including Ties) +220
*It’s almost a right of passage to get burned by Dead Heat Rules in golf. Make sure you understand these. I typically pay the premium for INCLUDING TIES markets for T5,10,20 because ties are common in Golf, especially at the top of the leaderboard.
🏈 Super Bowl First TD Scorer
By now, you should be familiar with my First TD Scorer analytics.
Here’s a bit more for each of these two teams (click the image for higher resolution):
Both teams have struggled to score TDs on their first offensive possession this season. That said, the Eagles are on a heater. And if you toss the Broncos game, each team has scored the first TD in their respective game eight times in a row.
Something has to give.
In my mind, there are five players to analyze for this game. Sure, others are possible, but I’m looking for higher probability outcomes where there might be some value.
In my modeling, I gave the Chiefs a slight edge regarding the likelihood of scoring the first TD. Even if I switch that probability, the value options are consistent.
At +900, Kareem Hunt seems like the value in the First TD Market. I’ll also back Xavier Worthy at +1100.
The only Eagle I would consider is A.J. Brown at +1200. There is no value for Barkley or Hurts.
Another Super Bowl wager I’ve made is Halftime / Fulltime - Eagles 1H / Chiefs Fulltime at +600. This will be the fifth Mahomes/Reid Super Bowl and they’ve never led at half. They’ve trailed in three and were tied once.
Back to Scottie Scheffeler
Again, Scottie Scheffler to win at +275 isn’t appealing.
BUT, this weekend comes once a year. So why not have a little fun?
I have made the following wagers:
Scottie Scheffler to Win + Kareem Hunt First TD @ +3650
Scottie Scheffler to Win + Xavier Worthy First TD @ +4400
Other wagers that leverage a Scottie Win include the following Parlays.
Scottie Scheffler to Win + Nick Taylor T20 @ +987
Scottie Scheffler to Win + Lucas Glover T20 @ +1100
Best of luck this weekend!
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