The Crossover - Creating Value
Spot Plays - Horse Racing and Sports
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Each week thus far, I’ve tried to highlight a different approach or philosophy. This has been intentional.
This week's ask is pretty straightforward - What would you like to see here each week? Could you reply and let me know? I’ll read them all and see what we can do.
Review of Last Week:
✅ Fair Grounds - Race 10 - 2 - GEAUX SUGAR 8/1 ML (NO BET - went off at 7/2)
❌ Jordan Addison First TD Scorer +900
❌ Mike Evans First TD Scorer +950
❌ Marvin Harrison Jr. First TD Scorer +900
❌ Brian Robinson Jr. First TD Scorer +470
❌ Steelers vs. Eagles UNDER 7.5 1Q Total -120
❌ STEELERS Opening Drive = FGA +330
✅ Cincinnati Bengals -3 and ❌ Lions UNDER 54.5
Gambling can be quite humbling. Last week was not a good week for me or The Crossover - my bankroll can confirm.
That said, it’s very important not to be overly results-oriented.
If we review last week solely based on the outcome, it was horrendous. But, if I dig deeper, I remain confident in the process.
GEAUX SUGAR got the job done at Fairgrounds, but it’s hard to take credit as I suggested I’d need 6/1 or better. While that prevented me from cashing a 7/2 winner, it’s the same approach that prevented me from punching a (losing) ticket the week before - a runner-up finish from a horse that went off much shorter than the required odds.
The First TD Scorers - They were 0-4. Not good. BUT, the team of players I selected scored the first TD in all four games. That doesn’t pay anything, but I feel good that I got half the equation right, and it won’t discourage me from attacking that market again.
The 1Q Under in the Steelers and Eagles game was relatively sound handicapping. Both teams failed to score a TD on their opening drive. But there was also a turnover and eight possessions in the Quarter.
The read on the Bengals was solid, and some people benefitted from the Bengals D/ST to score a TD (it should have been two!). But clearly, the read on the Bills vs. Lions was terrible from the jump.
🏀 12/21 - #16 Purdue at #2 Auburn - 4:30 PM ET
Auburn -9.5 -114
The SEC is off to a hot start; there’s no denying that. I will lean into that and side with the Tigers on Saturday.
This game is in Birmingham, AL, not Neville Arena. So, technically, this isn’t a home game for Auburn, but this venue holds about twice as many spectators. So despite the two-hour jaunt, a clear advantage to the Tigers.
The Auburn offense is ranked #1 in the country based on efficiency metrics. Purdue is solid offensively, as well. Things start to really favor Auburn when you look at defensive metrics. Purdue is an average defensive team, and will likely get destroyed on the glass.
🏇 12/21 - Tampa Bay Downs - Race 6 - Post Time 2:36 ET
2 - FLEETINGLY 5/2 ML 😅 (WIN at 6/5 or better)
2 - FLEETINGLY makes her North American debut for Chad Brown. And she looks well meant for Resolut Bloodstock, despite losing three in a row overseas, as the favorite.
Chad Brown is 18 / 39 (46% $2.03 ROI) at Tampa Bay with the following filters: Turf, MSW, First Time Lasix, Routes, Off Odds 2-1 or less.
Her runner-up finish two back, should stack up well with this group. She has some early speed and is cutting back in distance. Hopefully, Gallardo will put her in the race early. She should get a nice trip from her inside draw. The Morning Line odds of 5/2 are not happening.
I’m against the second choice 5 - Enchant. She sat just off a slow pace and could not make up any meaningful ground in the stretch of her last race - A common race for several of today’s runners.
I might look to key the Chad Brown runner on top of the pair from the Delacour barn.
4 - CEFALU (FR) was hard-held early before gaining position in the lane during the aforementioned slow-paced race from 11/30. And her stablemate, 8 - MEEKAT, sports a flashy pedigree, being out of a former G1 Winner. Delacour doesn’t have great numbers with debut runners at TB, but I’m guessing this one will come running late.
10 - AMERICANDREAMMAKER is also worth a mention. Again, exiting that common race, she galloped out best after a few awkward strides in the stretch run. It’s worth noting Centeno opted for one of the Delacour horses - maybe not that surprising.
🏈 12/12 - First TD Scorer - 1PM ET
Despite the results from last week, I’m not shying away from this market. The data informing my selections this week is summarized below.
The Bengals play the Browns this week and it was announced that Winston will not be the starting QB. As a result, I think it’s highly likely the Bengals will score the first TD of the game - The 65% I’ve assigned might be conservative. I considered a dutched wager with Chase Brown and Ja’Marr Chase, but the value isn’t there. It's not all that surprising, I guess.
Josh Jacobs is another player I like for this market. He has eight TDs in the last four games. And he was the first TD scorer for the Packers in the past two games. Still, it’s a pass, given the odds.
Mike Evans and Jordan Addison continue to look like value in this market. Mike Evans scored two TDs in the game last week, just not the first of the game. I’m going back to them this week, as both have favorable matchups in games that are needed to secure playoff positioning.
Jahmyr Gibbs has only scored the first TD for the Lions two times this year. But I have projected him at 64% to score their first TD this week. That feels high, even to me. However, if you add Montgomery and Gibbs, they’ve scored the first Lions TD in 9 of 14 games. With Montgomery out for the season (maybe), Gibbs figures prominently in all offensive looks, including the goalline. Even at +275, it appears to be value, as the Bears have yet to score a TD on an opening drive this season.
I would invest up to ONE UNIT in this market. I’d make three bets, splitting them by rough percentages as follows:
Jordan Addison First TD Scorer +800 (20%)
Mike Evans First TD Scorer +650 (40%)
Jahmyr Gibbs First TD Scorer +275 (40%)
🏈 Super Bowl Futures
Putting the Vikings and Packers aside, the NFC looks like a two-team race: the Lions and Eagles.
As I see it, the Lions have an injury problem that is getting worse each week. They now have several key players that will not return this year. They’ve done remarkable to date, but it’s starting to show. Even if you buy into the “next guy up” mentality, they have another HUGE problem, in my opinion. The Lions give up the MOST rushing yards/play to opposing QBs in the NFL - 6.52 yards per attempt.
Given their likely path to the Super Bowl, that spells trouble. They could be forced to play the Commanders if they don’t secure the number 1 seed in the NFC. If they survive that, and make it to the NFC Championship game, another mobile QB is likely waiting (Hurts) to play spoiler.
All that to say, I like the Eagles to win the NFC and make it to the Super Bowl. They are currently the favorite at +220 to win the NFC. I’m not sure that’s a great value, but is there another way to leverage that opinion?
Let’s look at the AFC, which might be clearer in some ways, even if there are three teams involved. The Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens are a cut above the rest of the AFC. I don’t have a firm opinion on which one is more likely to earn their way into the Super Bowl. But maybe that doesn’t matter?
Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl Matchup Market
Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles +1400
Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles +850
Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles +1100
Let’s assume a unit is $100. I could dutch the selections at these prices, and if any of the combinations wins, I have a profit of $291 or 2.9 units.
Conversely, betting the Eagles to win the NFC would return a profit of $220 or 2.2 units.
This makes sense, given there is clearly more risk involved (have to pick the AFC winner).
🏈 12/29 - Hypothetical Matchup in CFP
Georgia +1.5 vs. Notre Dame -110
My favorite wager of the week comes via a look-ahead line that feels off.
FanDuel is currently offering “Hypothetical” (that’s how they have this listed under CFP) lines for the second weekend of the CFP. Notably, the stake is returned if one team doesn’t make it.
Notre Dame is solid, but its schedule strength is questionable at best. Their best win on the season, arguably occurred in August. They have few weaknesses but this line feels off.
The line is in response to the Carson Beck injury. I get it, but it seems like a gigantic overreaction. Georgia gets a few weeks' rest and a home game, and they’ve been here before.
Things can’t really get worse for Georgia (barring a practice injury or something unforeseen). But Notre Dame plays tonight, and they are assuming a lot of risk on the injury front - not that I want that to happen. Still, it’s a reality. One team is idle, and the other team still has a game to play.
As an aside, I’d lean toward Indiana +7.5 tonight, so there’s no guarantee, in my mind, that this matchup will materialize. If it does, I’m confident in the Bulldogs and expect this ultimately has some closing line value.
I wish I could get the Bulldogs on the Money Line for plus money, but this will work. And it’s a 2 Unit play for me.
*Using the same approach as the Super Bowl. I think Georgia is relatively underrated at this point. I considered two “Name the Finalist” wagers - Georgia and Texas/Oregon. Both are +600.
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I like mixing it up with different sports. I would like to see some NASCAR spots when the season starts in Feb. keep up the good work