Saratoga Grade 1 Horse-by-Horse Previews
ITM Plus - Travers Weekend Stakes Writeups from PTF
The head honcho, PTF, is excited to bring you SIX horse-by-horse writeups for each Grade 1 race at Saratoga this weekend. Three of them are up on attheraces.com, which you can find linked below:
The rest you’ll find right here. The Grade 1 Ballerina is a preview for all of the newsletter readers and the remaining two, the Forego and Allen Jerkens, are reserved for the ITM Plus subscribers. Make sure to get involved with ITM Plus to see those previews as well as the other great, subscriber exclusive content produced weekly by our many contributors.
Race 10 - Grade 1 Ballerina
#1 POSITANO SUNSET is a listed stakes winner who was second last time in a Grade 3. Hat run represented a big new top and even at that it wasn’t fast enough to beat the best of these. She projects to make a run from off the pace and could maybe pass some tired rivals to run into a minor placing, but I presume that would be her ceiling.
#2 CHI TOWN LADY finished the worst of those coming out of the common race two back but improved last time to nab third in a fast allowance where she has a lot going against her (pace dynamics, the way the track was playing). She’s been well handled by Vahva twice. Her career highlight came at Saratoga two years back when she took out the Grade 1 Test. Backers will hope that her love of the local surface (recently work here was good too) can bring her into the mix. I worry she’ll simply be outclassed.
#3 VAHVA is a deserving favorite who comes here off a pair of graded stakes wins including the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff two back. She’ll get a great stalk-and-pounce trip and appears to be working well for this. She’s just a half-length from being on a five-race win streak and looks to be the class of the field with the best recent figures.
#4 SOCIETY was third in the common race, her first of the season. Her last two runs are well below the strong efforts she posted last summer but those were in a Grade 3 and a listed contests with candy trips so maybe she’s just not as good as she looked. Her signature win in the Grade 1 Cotillion as a three-year-old was also earned with a loose lead on a track that was carrying speed. She’s a pace factor but I think she’ll get run down.
Even though she was second, #5 SCYLLA emptied out in the stretch in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch making this turnback in distance a very logical step. In truth I think the real problem last time wasn’t the distance as much as the grueling early pace figures she threw down there. In her previous two races she won a Grade 2 and Grade 3, both going long. Presumably she’ll be coming from a lot farther back and her finish should be a lot better with a holdup run, and she’s got enough tactical foot that it’s not like she’ll be out of it. I don’t think she can beat Vahva’s A-race, but if they go too fast and the fav attacks early she could be vulnerable to a late run from this classy miss.
#6 SHIDABHUTI is a Grade 3 winner who will also be looking to close from midpack. Dylan Davis has been riding lights out and Chad Brown can never be completely discounted. That said, this filly simply doesn’t look fast enough and I would imagine all involved would be absolutely hrilled if she could pass some tired ones for third and get that critical (for her status as a broodmare) Grade 1 placing.
#7 ACCEDE is in really good form – she’s less than a length from having won consecutive Grade 2s. On a pace map, she should be in solid stalking position. She has Brown and Prat in her corner and, like the rival to her inside, could really use a placing and that might affect how she’s ridden (ie, not too aggressively). Biggest issue I have with her is that (also like her stablemate) she’s simply too slow.
I remember when #8 MUNNY’S GOLD arrived on the scene and looked like an almost certain future Grade 1 winner. It hasn’t quite worked out for her though she did receive a Grade 1 placing in last year’s Test and I think she ran the best race that day given how close she was to the fast pace in a race that fell apart. Her Honourable Miss was very disappointing as she was beaten by Accede and as you know from what I wrote I don’t rate her very highly. BUT Munny was wide on a day you needed to be inside and she could get a great trip here on or near the lead. I think she is a candidate to surprise if Society somehow doesn’t break well or goes away tamely. A possible longshot to include – I’m not giving up on those G1
VERDICT: I think I have to make #3 VAHVA my top pick but it’s close between her and #5 SCYLLA, simply because the latter will be a multiple of the former. I’ll also include a small backup with #8 MUNNY’S GOLD.