Santa Anita Pick 6 Analysis - Mandatory Payout
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Thoughts on the first 3 legs from Mike Pribozie:
Race 7 2 year old Cal Bred MSW 5 Furlongs DIRT
(3) Go Go Prancer was 2-1 on debut for Bonde but encountered a tough trip. Banged on both sides at the start then caught in a speed duel before tiring late. New pilot now and a speed edge over several rivals from that 5/26 race. Barn excels with 2 year olds and sprinters. One to beat.
(7) Charmz Away is another from that 5/26 race. He closed to be second there after a setup at 24/1 earning a 70 BSF in the process. Barn has positive ROIs with maiden 2nd time starters (2.55) , two year olds (2.31) and MSW runners (2.81). Main barn jockey gets the call here as Maldonado is 24% this year for this barn. Unless the firsters are ready this one rates highly as an A on the pick 6.
(8) Pax a Punch is a first timer that has a look from a Knapp barn that’s been hot over the last month, including two first time starters at Santa Anita. Stay Thirsty is a 10% sire of 2 year olds first time out (315 sample size) and the mare won first out. Works are relatively slow at first glance but common for the barn. Main barn jockey in tow here so another use on the A line here.
A) 378
Race 8 3 and Up State Bred OC20k/NW1x Alw. Purse 55k. 1 Mile TURF
(5) Kerry Gold looms large here in for a 20k tag to get back to the level that he excels. He has four wins on the grass in eight lifetime starts. Won at this level 12/2 at Del Mar with an 83 BSF. After two failed dirt starts he was back on the Turf 3/3 at SA but vs Open 50k/NW1x types where he was 37-1. A trip to Turf Paradise resulted in an Open win with a 84 BSF. The 5/19 race going 10F produced a last place finish. He finds the easiest spot in a long time and could be claimed here. Must use on the A line.
(9) Fly the Sky is third back for the red hot Knapp barn returning to the same level that has produced a fourth and third place finishes. Seven year old is 0 for the last two years but has the numbers to be competitive vs this group. Runner up two back won well in 5/19 race with a 86 BSF. Given the lack of proven alternatives here and recent barn prowess this one needs used as an A.
(7) Big George has been in the same races as the 9 but finishing behind that one. He is however getting a jockey change here and that is a switch that makes him interesting. Four year old is 0/4 on the grass but is lightly raced. Broke maiden for 20k on the synth, last two turf figs put him in the mix as a long shot. Use as a C on tickets.
(6) Talklessworkmore returns from 12/2 layoff. Was 4-1 vs Kerry Gold in that spot but could only manage 5th there. Speed on the turf in the past (6/17 and 7/30 lines) which led to two near miss seconds. He is a share type with 11 total 2nds and 3rds with only 1 lifetime win but has made 213k. Barn is 0% on the turf but sports a positive ROI in routes. Given the dynamics of this race and the freshness this runner could lead these a long way. Use as a B/C type on tickets.
A) 5, 9
B/C) 6,7
Race 9 Beaten Claiming 16k Nw2 Races 6F DIRT
(2) Mobe Town went very fast early 5/4 vs similar but came to a walk late while favored, losing to a 12/1 shot that rallied from eighth. That one has since come back to be 3rd vs nw3 types 6/1 with a 76 BSF. Many of the others from the 5/4 spot are back in this race. His dirt lines play well here and his speed will prove difficult for many, the question will be the last 50 yards. Use as an A on all tickets.
(4) Picking It Up is hard to gauge off since 11/11/22. Didn’t resume working until 4/29 this year but has been steady since. 6/5 5F in 1:00 2/5 was sharp. Five year old obviously has issues with late start to career in November of three year old season, but did win well when bet first out earning a 72 BSF. Barn is sharp off layoffs winning at 22% with a $7.16 ROI. This runner needs to be respected but style, layoff and other speed in the race give pause. Use as a B on tickets.
(3) Kahuna Magic is another lightly raced type. Six year old has five lifetime starts and just a MSW win back in 2021 for John Shirreffs. Returned from 2 year layoff 5/7/23 but was beaten 25 lengths. Another year break followed with another poor effort. He’s back quickly (for him) and drops to the lowest level he’s ever seen. In a race that has many that will be slowing late he could be moving forward given the connections and the drop. Something has kept this horse in training all this time. Use as a C on tickets if you have faith.
A) 2
B) 4
C) 3
Thoughts from Justin Christein for the last 3 races:
Race 10: #7 She'z the Law (5-2) should get the front running trip she wants here. Expecting this girl to be on the pace and Fresu can spy the inside runners to make his decision. She was headstrong in her last after a trio of horses were intent on making the pace. She pulled a bit down the backside and that may have hindered her finish. She's a lone "A". #8 Runyon Canyon (3-1) gets back to the nine furlongs that suits her best. She never had a chance to run in the stretch last out while racing at a mile. Second time blinkers will have her in the race and she must be used as a back-up. #2 Blue Fashion (30-1) earned a much improved speed figure racing with lasix for the first time in her latest race and she finished her final quarter mile in 22.98. Those factors make her a contender here. Add in the fact that she adds blinkers today (she looked good training in blinkers in her most recent work), and gets a cozy inside draw, and she is a "must include" today.
A: #7 She'z the Law
B: #8 Runyon Canyon, #2 Blue Fashion
Race 11: #8 Vilified (3-1) should handle this field. In his debut he broke tardy, rushed up showing very good speed , battled for the lead, and tired in the lane. The outside post just adds to the appeal. Anywhere near the ML is good value. #6 Cupid's Crusader (7-2) has good dirt form. Draw a line through the turf efforts, excuse the race vs a tougher than average Maiden 50K group, and this horse is a clear contender. The trainer shows 2 of 3 runners hitting the board off of a 220+ layoff and he looked good in his latest work. Logical alternative.
A: #8 Vilified
B: #6 Cupid's Crusader
Race 12: Milers with tactical speed usually fit the hillside turf course very well. That is the case with #9 Halfway line (7-2). He broke slowly then dragged the rider up into 2nd approaching the first turn as he wanted to engage early. Now he gets a cutback and his seven furlong races in France were good. Second time 4yo should fire his best shot. #2 We're in Trouble (12-1) might trip out behind the speed. On debut he beat All That Glory. That one came back to win next out and then was beaten a head in a turf sprint stakes. Out of his debut race, three of the five horses came back to improve their Timeform US fig by 17, 21, and 25 points in their next start, so he may have even ran faster than the figure indicates. Allowed to grow up in the three months since his March debut, he could be really good and 12-1 (doubt we get that price) is juicy. #11 Father Delay (8-1) was handled with confidence by Smith when he broke his maiden in his 4yo debut. He was steadied and in tight along the rail vs winners last out and was simply allowed to coast home while never asked to produce a kick. Smith gets back aboard today and I believe he'll be rolling down the center of the turf course in the final 1/8th. #6 Anmer Hall (4-1) should get a mid-pack trip and possesses a very good late kick. He needs to be used. #8 Dancing Rinca (15-1) comes back off a freshening which he probably needed. He has looked sharp in his two most recent works and he is better suited to this elongated sprint. I have a feeling he will come back running.
A: #2 We're in Trouble, #6 Anmer Hall, #9 Halfway Line,
B: #8 Dancing Rinca, #11 Father Delay