Royal Ascot Day 1 - Runner-by-Runner Guide
Royal Ascot Day 1 - Runner-by-Runner Guide
By: Steven Bonnick (June 20th, 2023)
Steven Bonnick has returned to provide extended Royal Ascot coverage to ITM Plus! Over the next five days, he will provide horse-by-horse analysis for each race held during the meeting. We hope you enjoy!
2:30 - Queen Anne Stakes
A straight-mile contest for 4-year-olds and up. I suspect they will race up the middle here.
1: Angel Bleu – a disappointing 2022 for this colt, who didn’t kick on from a juvenile campaign that culminated in back-to-back wins at Group 1 level in France. He ran respectably at the highest level in the Sussex Stakes last July and returned to winning ways at Haydock in a minor Stakes last time out over a furlong less than this. Clinging on at the end there from unlucky second, who went on to fill same spot in similar race next time. Should find this tough.
2: Berkshire Shadow – juvenile winner at this meeting and followed a solid fifth in Group 1 2000 Guineas with a good sixth at this meeting last year, beaten under 2 lengths in the St James’s Palace Stakes. Didn’t go on from that ultimately but gelding operation was a success, landing two races on synthetics following the cruellest cut of all. Returned to grass and Group 1 company in the Lockinge last time and ran career best race, running on from mid-pack into a good third. 2.5 lengths to make up on Modern Games on that run.
3: Cash – 4-year-old is lightly-raced, having only had five runs. Narrowly denied by the 2022 Derby runner up Westover in trial for the Epsom contest at Sandown last April. AWOL for sevens months prior to even-money defeat on synthetics but returned to action with some good closing splits over this course and distance behind Lockinge runner up Chindit. Only 4th last time but made big, eye-catching move into contention off slow pace and didn’t seem to get home behind some classy middle-distance horses having pulled hard. Has the right running style for this course and distance and the drop in trip will suit. More interesting than most with a nice jockey upgrade, provided there is some pace on.
4: Chindit – tough 5-year-old made most of the running to win over this C&D on seasonal return and ran a fine second next time out in the Group 1 Lockinge when attempting to bite the winner close home. Doubts over his temperament based on those antics but clearly has amongst the best form claims in the contest at a course he has a fine 15411 record at.
5: Light Infantry – globe-trotting stablemate of Cash is a hard-knocking performer who was just a neck behind today’s rival Inspiral at Deauville last year. Returned from one-race sojourn Down Under to run three solid races back in the Northern Hemisphere this year, including when just touched off in a moderate-looking Group 1 in France last time. Seventh in Lockinge would appear to expose his limitations, and fast ground is a worry for this son of mud influence Fast Company.
6: Lusail – head defeat on the round-course in the St James’s Palace Stakes at this meeting last year represents a career high point and again ran well at this track on seasonal debut when behind Chindit and Cash, despite having a better flow than the latter. Solid sixth in the Lockinge since gives him something to find and hard to see where the required improvement comes from. A place would represent a good effort.
7: Modern Games – granite colt brings by far the best body of work into this contest, having scored five times at the highest level. Most recently had several of these behind when winning the Lockinge, and form with Up To The Mark has received a significant boost since. There’s still a slight concern over the wellbeing of the Appleby yard on this side of the Atlantic – running at a relatively paltry 18% in May, although 4 of their last 8 runners have won, albeit mostly favoured horses in Novice events - but with plenty of straight-track (including here) and firm ground form he is unquestionably the one to beat.
8: Mutasaabeq – talented performer, particularly if allowed to control the pace as was the case when dominating a small field on his seasonal debut in the Bet365 Mile. However, he is yet to win at this level despite being a 5-year-old and was behind Modern Games in the Lockinge last time. His front-running tactics are rarely suited to this course and distance and likely to find at least one too good.
9: Native Trail – stablemate of Modern Games. Excellent runner-up effort in the UK 2000 Guineas when favourite and went one better in the Irish version a month later, before running a close third in the Eclipse, amongst the best form on show here. Wind operation prior his return and was no match for Mutasaabeq on that occasion, but had little chance with the flow of the race which allowed that rival to dominate. Should improve plenty for that run and is an interesting contender.
10: Pogo – this 7-year-old has been a fine servant to his connections over the years. Still searching for his first Group 1 win and looks most unlikely to make the breakthrough here having run poorly twice in the Middle East this spring.
11: Triple Time – lightly-raced sort has won his last two starts on firm ground but those contests came at much lower levels. Has clearly been hard to train with this just his sixth run as a 4-year-old and missed the Lockinge with a vet’s certificate. Would need a massive career best off the lay-off to figure here; trainer just 10% off a break of 150+ days.
12: Inspiral – heavily-touted filly who was absolutely blistering first-time up at this meeting last year following a flawless and dominant freshman campaign, so we know this time of year and running fresh suits her well. Career went off the rails somewhat since despite a narrow Group 1 victory subsequently, having been beaten at 1/7f in the Falmouth Stakes and looking to have some foibles when again a beaten chalk in the QEII last October either side of that win. Slowly away and keen there, fresh might be the time to catch her and the Gosden team are 26% with distaffers off a 5 month+ break. A bit to prove now taking on the boys and this gal is likely to be overbet with Dettori aboard.