Risen Star Early Preview & Weekend Recap - ITM Players' Newsletter

+ more Weekend Eye Catchers!

Players’ Podcast: Frankie Says Va Fa A Napoli and Much More

PTF and Nick Tammaro catch up about the weekend’s races including big three-year-old performances from Colloquial and John Hancock. They also take a first look at the Risen Star and recap stakes races from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita.

In the show’s second segment, Mike Pribozie and PTF take a deeper look at the Risen Star with thoughts on runners like East Avenue, Jonathan’s Way, Built, American Promise, Chunk of Gold, Vassimo and Vamos Carlitos.

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Mike Pribozie and PTF look deeper at the Risen Star with thoughts on runners like East Avenue, Jonathan's Way, Built, American Promise, Chunk of Gold, Vassimo, and Vamos Carlitos.

2025 Kentucky Derby Top 10 + Other Contenders

Updates following the Sam F. Davis and a look ahead to the Risen Star & Sunland Derby. Featuring important notes on Colloquial, John Hancock, Hill Road, Hymn, & Owen Almighty.

Recent Beyers, replays, and next likely starts for the top 20 contenders. Plus freshly updated thoughts on over 20 other horses on the Derby trail.

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Weekend Eye Catchers - February 7-9, 2025

By Will Humphrey

Finding beaten horses to write about in this article isn’t always that easy; many a Sunday evening has been spent watching and rewatching replays again. This week, however, it seemed as if almost every race contained a horse who ran an eye-catching race in defeat and fared better than the bare result would suggest. And so, having been spoiled for choice, I hope the following horses will all prove to be profitable to follow going forward. Let’s dive in.

Friday, Oaklawn Park R5: VANDEN (3rd)

Trainer John Ortiz has had a rough couple of months, having not trained a winner since December 7, despite having sent out 72 horses since. His barn is cold, to stay the least, which actually makes VANDEN’s third place finish in Oaklawn’s fifth on Friday - a MC30k going 6-furlongs - even more eye-catching than it already was.

Watch the replay HERE (TS: 10.20), and you can see how having broken from the inside gate, VANDEN was forced to check sharply entering the bend at the 7/16 marker and was shuffled way back to ninth position at the quarter-pole, 11 1/4 lengths behind the leaders. Not even in the camera shot, winning had become an impossible task. However, he made a good go of it regardless, regathering his forward momentum while five wide on the bend and gobbling up the ground in the stretch, passing six rivals with ease to cross the wire just 3 3/4 lengths behind the heavily bet one-two finishers, who held those positions throughout. VANDEN then went ahead and galloped out strongly, well clear of the field.

This 58 Beyer earning effort marked a significant step forward for the $75k son of MAXIMUM SECURITY, who, prior to Friday’s contest, had done very little running in three career starts, being beaten by a combined 44 1/2 lengths with a top Beyer of 47. And it likely wasn’t a flukey step forward either. You see, following three such dismal prior performances, connections had decided to remove VANDEN’s crown jewels and geld him, which, as we all know, can often be the making of a horse. With lasix also going on for the first time, there is no reason to think that this figure and result was a one-off. In fact, as Ortiz’s barn is so cold right now, and it was VANDEN’s first start for 112-days, I expect that he’ll actually be able to step forward from this effort and granted a clean trip, that could make him tough to beat in a similar contest next time. He could also improve for more distance too.

And so, although VANDEN is unlikely to be featuring in any KY Derby preps any time soon, I’ll still be keeping an eye out for when and where he next shows up because following this effort, a maiden breaking performance at a decent price looks right around the corner.

Saturday, Gulfstream Park, R4: MISTY MEMORIES (5th)

Making his fourth career start and first in America, MISTY MEMORIES was fascinating addition to the fourth at Gulfstream on Saturday - a one-mile MSW for 3-year-olds on the turf. Having been purchased for €120k as a breeze-up in Ireland, the well-bred son of KODIAC had done little wrong in three starts over the pond in England, earning a respectable BHA handicap mark of 76 following his most recent 1 1/4-length defeat by a Charlie Appleby trained 2/5 hot-pot. He’d then been sold again for 100,000 GNS ($130k) to current owners Pocket Aces Racing LLC and shipped stateside to join Brendan Walsh’s barn in Palm Meadows, where he’d been breezing nicely in preparation for Saturday’s contest. He stood out physically in the paddock pre-race and the betting market reacted accordingly, forcing his odds down to 5/2 by post time. By all accounts he was the horse to beat and despite the result, I’ve no doubt that he was the best horse in the race too.

Want to see a bad trip? WATCH THIS. A slow break followed by a bump resulted in MISTY MEMORIES racing last early and from there, almost nothing went right. He settled well back along the rail for the majority of the contest before Luis Saez cued him to get closer on the home bend. He then began energetically generating a full head of steam into the stretch, however, when caught up to the leaders, he simply had nowhere to go. The chart comment reads “off slow, rail, tip out, bid, bumped, checked 1/16, blocked” - you kind of get the idea. He was denied a clear path for the entirety of the stretch run and then strangled off of the leaders' heels with ten strides to go. Considering that Saez never used the crop once, or even got into a full drive for that matter, and then wrapped up late on, I’ve no doubt that having been beaten by just two lengths all told, MISTY MEMORIES was the best horse in the race.

It goes without saying that this guy needs to be put on your ‘bet-back list’. And as Brendan Walsh hits at 26% ($3.03 ROI) with turf horses making their second start off a 150+ day layoff, one would be hopeful that, with this first taste of US racing now behind him, a cleaner trip will see him shed the maiden tag next time.

And then, who knows? Both his pedigree and British form are strong, he certainly made a great visual impression here, I loved the way that he effortlessly closed when the pace was at it’s hottest up front, and I know for fact that he is well regarded by connections. Furthermore, I liked how he was determinedly trying to punch on through small gaps others would have backed out of late on, demonstrating both ability and a willing attitude. We all know how good the European turf horses are, so could this guy be legit in time? I actually loved his effort and wouldn’t say no just yet.

Sunday, Gulfstream Park, R8: SHRED THE GNAR (2nd)

Brian Lynch wouldn’t typically be known for his first time starters, yet that didn’t stop bettors heavily supporting SHRED THE GNAR in Gulfstream’s eighth on Sunday - a 6-furlong MSW on the dirt. And, had the filly not raced greenly when met with kickback for the first time heading into the home bend, losing ground on the leaders as they quickened up front, she could very well have obliged.

HERE’S THE REPLAY, where you can see how she breaks well under Luis Saez and adopts a beautiful close-up stalking position in a share of third, but then sucks herself back to be ~5 lengths off the leaders and struggling ~5/16 pole. At that stage of the race, anyone who was holding a win ticket about SHRED THE GNAR would have likely been pinching the top, ready to make that disappointing tear of defeat down the centre. However, under a typically strong Luis Saez drive, she realized that the kickback wasn’t all that back and re-rallied with a strong, long and persistent drive, wearing down on the eventual gate-to-wire winner to hit the wire just a nose behind in second, before galloping out strongly, well clear of the field. For the effort, she was rewarded a respectable 80 Beyer.

As both OWEN ALMIGHTY and JUST A CARE had already been beaten by narrow margins in stakes races on Saturday, I’m sure that this was a truly infuriating result for trainer Brian Lynch. However, many positives can be taken from SHRED THE GANR’s debut regardless and I‘ve no doubt that, with this first race now behind her, she’ll be able to step forward both mentally and physically next time out. Considering that she ran an 80 Beyer and physically looked great in doing so, that could make her tough to beat in a similar quality affair. Furthermore, as she’s a $610k daughter of INTO MISCHIEF and therefore full sister to MGSW and 2019 Preakness S. (G1) third place finisher OWENDALE, she should improve for more distance too - a theory supported by how she shaped on Sunday, sustaining that long drive through the wire and on the gallop out.

This wasn’t a perfect start to her career, but it was a promising one, and as Lynch hits at no less than 31% with second time starters who hit the board on debut, I’ll be keeping a close eye out for when SHRED THE GNAR next fills the entry box - you can expect her to be shredding her maiden tag soon (see what I did there) before possibly going onto to reach a decent level in time.

Winners to Mention…

There were any number of impressive winners from the weekend who I could have written about this week; you’ve probably already taken note of the 105 Beyer earning effort from COLLOQUIAL at Aqueduct on Friday. WATCH THE STRETCH RUN HERE.

Besides COLLOQUIAL though, HYMN was the horse who really impressed me this weekend. He did a lot wrong on debut in Oaklawn’s eighth on Saturday, lugging in behind the leaders on the bend and making it hard for Rafael Bejarano to get him rolling off the turn, before he then dived in towards the rail violently when in front late on. Despite this though, he still managed to win by a comfortable 4 lengths with an 83 Beyer and, as his trainer Ron Moquett hits at just 9% with first time starters, one can assume that means he’s got some real ability. HERE’S THE REPLAY.

When horses lug in repeatedly race after race, that can be a real issue (cough, cough, SIERRA LEONE). However, the son of MCKINZIE did eventually straighten out inside the final furlong on Saturday and then galloped out straight as a dye with his ears pricked, so I recon that this was simply a case of his inexperience and babyishness getting to him, and I’d be hopeful that, possibly aided by a change of equipment next time, he’ll be much more professional in his future starts. He certainly passed the eye test and with his dam having being stake placed, he could be a name to watch out for. (HERE is a link to an interesting deep dive into HYMN’s pedigree too, well put together by @Tinky47flat on X (That’s formerly Twitter, for anyone who hasn’t heard!)).

Out of the Tracker…

ITMEs exiting the tracker this week, to ensure that those with current entries highlighted in both these lines and Saturday’s ‘Horses to Follow’ email are those I still believe to be worth keeping onside/given extra consideration when wagering are…

• PARTY ON GIRL: Former Chad Brown trainee flashed ability for new connections when cut back to sprint trips but has not progressed since and is becoming expensive to follow.

• FANCY QUALITY: This GB-bred filly caught the eye on debut going 5 1/2-furlongs at Aqueduct last year. The form of that race has worked out badly and she has done nothing to enhance it herself.

• HURRICANE EXPRESS: Having rattled home to finish second over an inadequate trip on barn debut last time, it was disappointing to see HURRICANE EXPRESS fail to land a blow in a weaker contest over one mile on Sunday. He’s still a maiden after six starts and out of the tracker.

Former ITM Eye-catchers With Current Entries

Just two former ITME’s to keep an eye on this week. Make sure to check Saturday’s ‘Horses to Follow’ email for the weekend’s ITMEs.

Friday

• OP R8: LA HOULIGAN

• SA R4: MISS MAKENNA

I hope that you had an enjoyable and successful past week at the windows, and good luck this week!