Preakness Day Pick 5s - UPDATE
Tyler Whisman
This game is humbling in more ways than one - that’s for sure! Thanks to the dozens of subscribers that let me know the Pick 5 actually starts in Race 2 - at least that means someone is reading, right? Anyway, I’ve updated the sequence below but will admit it becomes a little less interesting to me.
By now, you’re likely aware that the takeout on the Pick 5 at Pimlico is 12%. That’s an attractive proposition so I thought I’d take a quick look at both Pick 5s on offer tomorrow.
Below, I’ll try to provide some quick and dirty handicapping thoughts, and then I’ll provide A-B-C selections to help with ticket construction.
Race 2:
7 SHOOGER RAY TOO is another who skipped a tougher assignment on Friday. This one comes off a couple of wide trips and as a result, the price is attractive. I like the efforts when Carmouche has been aboard. With plenty of early speed in here, this one has proven he can pass horses and seems live.
Again, I’ll use a couple of backups. 2 HONOR THE FLEET appears to be going the wrong way but he’s worthy of inclusion, due to the new conditioner.
10 D’RAPPER threw in a clunker last time out. A rebound and he’s in the mix.
Race 3:
Hopefully, we’ve created some value in the first two legs because 4 EVAN HARLAN will be an odds on favorite and single. He picks up Lasix and stretches out for a barn that has been on fire lately. The form is obvious here.
I wouldn’t argue with anyone that wanted to use 8 AIRSPEED VELOCITY as a C type. I suspect this horse might have some ability.
Also, it’s worth noting the bullet work out for 7 HARD TRAVELER. First time gelding, first time Lasix, big-time price.
Maybe a race worth playing vertically?
Race 4:
I don’t have a strong opinion in this race, other than the favorite is vulnerable. Handal has sent four horses to Pimlico in the past 5 years and has no wins to show. Small sample size, yes. But the horses were all less than 4-1 and only one hit the board.
I could see using a weighted ALL here. My A’s would be 2 SIR ALFRED JAMES, 3 THREES OVER DEUCES, 6 MR PHIL and 7 JAXON TRAVELER.
Race 5:
Another straightforward turf race. 2 CRYSTAL CLIFFS (FR) and 4 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (IRE) should lock up the race.
Though 3 SCARABEA and 6 KARAKATSIE are worthy of inclusion on the C line.
To quickly summarize, I’m trying to create value in the first two legs and relying heavily on the favorites in Races 3 and 5.
Race 6:
I’m going to use some combination of four horses here. 11 GOLDEN VOICE is not ideally drawn but she’s won two of her last three for a barn that is trying to win the trainers bonus for Preakness weekend.
7 FIRE IN THE HOLE has been away for some time but this is a move that Motion excels with. The barn started the meet 3/4 and is since 0-6 but this filly has shown a liking to the Pimlico turf course and might have matured.
4 KATE’S KINGDOM is win shy but has to be used in this spot. I like Geroux being in the saddle as she has some tactical speed and he should secure a nice pocket trip behind a few that have early speed.
The other horse I want to use is 5 HASHTAG LUCKY. She’s drawn outside the other speed horse and has more turf pedigree. The bullet work signals she’s training well and the barn won the The Very One stakes yesterday in front running fashion.
Let’s move on to the Late Pick 5…