Players' Newsletter - Weekend Review, Alabama Preview, & Eye Catchers
August 12th, 2024
Starting this week we’ll be starting a second weekly newsletter!
This will allow us to share the early week podcast and YouTube videos with everyone, as well as share anything taking place mid-week across the network we think you should know about.
The Monday newsletter will also be the new home of Will Humphrey’s “Weekend Eye Catchers”! Be sure to check in weekly with his thoughts on horses to keep a look out for down the road, whether that be impressive winners, intriguing maidens, or horses with troubled trips.
Enjoy and as always…
MYWAYP,
PTF
The summer rolls along with Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Notebook and Frank Scatoni’s “Frankly Speaking” Del Mar Diary! Subscribe to ITM Plus for exclusive picks, written analysis, and shows from your favorite ITM contributors.
Players’ Podcast - Arlington Million Day and Saratoga Grade 1 Recaps
PTF and JK are back with you for a free-flowing conversation centering around graded stakes action at Colonial Downs and Saratoga this weekend with thoughts on Nations Pride, Moira, Trikari, Carl Spackler, Carsons Run and many many more.
Welcome to our comprehensive preview of the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga Race Course! In this video, we dive deep into the field, key contenders, and betting insights for this prestigious race.
Weekend Eye Catchers - August 9-11th, 2024
By Will Humphrey
Over the past weekend, we witnessed some incredible performances in both victory and defeat, providing plenty of clues to help us cash future tickets. Here are a few horses who will be worth putting in your preferred tracker using in your upcoming wagers.
Saturday, Ellis Park, Race 1: CIVETTA (1st)
Ellis Park’s Saturday program kicked off with a full field of well-bred two-year-old maidens sprinting 5 1/2f on the turf, where the extremely well-bred Brendan Walsh debutant, CIVETTA, announced herself as a filly with a future.
Sent off at odds of 9/2, CIVETTA broke alertly from gate seven under Luan Machado, and was sent forward to closely stalk the pace setter and eventual runner-up, LOVELY EMMA. Racing in the two-path rounding the bend, Machado allowed CIVETTA to poke her nose in front at the 5/16 pole, before quickening through the gears and setting her down for the drive in the stretch. When straight and balanced, CIVETTA switched leads with such fluid accuracy that it was almost hard to notice, and with her efficient stride in full flow, she proceeded to run straight and true, grittily holding off a stubborn LOVELY EMMA to score by a neck.
The $600,000 runner-up definitely deserves credit for her valiant effort, but there was no mistake about the fact that CIVETTA was the best horse on the day, which is surprising when you consider that she has no speed at all in her pedigree.
Owned and bred by Godolphin, CIVETTA is by leading sire INTO MISCHIEF, out of two-time GSW turf router, SENTIERO ITALIA, making her a half sister to two-time G1 winner, SANTIN, who took the Arlington Million Stakes (G1), almost two years ago to the day. SENTIERO ITALIA herself, is a half sister to G1 winning turf router, ASHKAL WAY.
A good indication of a very talented horse is when they can win under conditions that aren’t ideal for them, and based on her stamina laden pedigree, that’s exactly what CIVETTA just did. Physically, she looked the real deal and oozed class, breaking sharply, settling well, switching leads, digging in when needed and willing responding to her rider’s urgings.
It will be interesting to see whether Walsh does indeed stretch this filly out in trip next time, because her pedigree certainly indicates that it will bring out the best in her and potentially result in her shaking up some stakes races. For now, though, this was an impressive debut from this extremely well-bred individual, and CIVETTA looks a filly with a big future.
Sunday, Colonial, Race 8: DETERMINED KINGDOM (3rd)
Last year’s Connaught Cup stakes (G2) winner, DREAM SHAKE, returned to the track with a bang on Sunday, overcoming a 267-day layoff to score in the 5 1/2f Van Clief Stakes at Colonial, under a masterful ride from Ben Curtis. With a view to the future however, the show finisher, DETERMINED KINGDOM, could be the horse to take out of the race.
Unloved at the betting windows, DETERMINED KINGDOM was sent off at a generous 14/1 with regular rider Victor Carrasco on board. Having broken well from post position four, Carrasco was content to let the early speed go somewhat and settle his mount 1 1/2 lengths behind the pace setters, BEAR RIVER and CRUZIN MAN. The leading group of five were tightly bunched rounding the home bend, with DETERMINED KINGDOM sandwiched in the middle of them, and as the race really started to unfold down the lane, Phil Schoenthal’s trainee remained firmly on the bridle with absolutely no where to go. Carrasco had no option but to actually take back inside the final furlong and create his own room toward the centre of the track, which in turn, resulted in him making contact with WITTY, who was closing strongly to the outside. Inside the final 1/16, DETERMINED KINGDOM finally found daylight, but it was all too late. Despite the fact that he courageously tried to regather his momentum and finish strongly, he could manage no better than third.
This was as brutal a trip as you will find in racing and a strong argument could be made that on another day, DETERMINED KINGDOM would have scooped the pot. Nevertheless, regardless of the result, this marked another improved performance from this well-bred son of ANIMAL KINGDOM, and going forward, I think that he could become a legitimate player in some graded turf sprints.
The Van Clief Stakes was a highly competitive $100,000 listed stake, contested by Charlie Appleby’s G1 winner, MISCHIEF MAGIC, as well as six other listed and graded stake winners. This time last year, DETERMINED KINGDOM probably wouldn’t have been very competitive against this group, however, as is typical with sprinters, he looks to be getting better and better with age. Although he already had four stake victories to his name and had become a solid sprinter on the mid-eastern circuit, he had never run a 90+ Beyer speed figure before the turn of the year, but now aged five, he has done it three times in a row (92, 91, 92).
To put things into context, MISCHIEF MAGIC came into this race having finish 5th by 4 ¾ length to COGBURN in the Jaipur Stakes (G1) last time out, which earned him a Beyer of 95. So, if your’e willing to upgrade DETERMINED KINGDOM’s troubled 92 Beyer on Sunday and take note of the fact that over the last two years, he has tended to progress with racing throughout the year and looks to still be improving, we are suddenly looking at a horse who would have a legitimate chance in some graded stakes, and hopefully, at a square price.
As disappointing as this result may have been for his supporters, DETERMINED KINGDOM was by no means disgraced in defeat and wherever he shows up next, don’t underestimate him.
Sunday, Saratoga, Race 8: HOWARD WOLOWITZ (4th)
Blinkers went back on FANDOM for the 5 1/2f Mahony Stakes at Saratoga on Sunday and boy did they bring out the best in him. Breaking like a rocket ship from the inside post, he determinedly led gate to wire through rock-solid fractions and held off RUN CARSON by a neck at the line, in what was a truly thrilling race. As exceptional as FANDOM was though, HOWARD WOLOWITZ looks the horse to take out of the race.
A $240,000 son of MUNNINGS, HOWARD WOLOWITZ had finished tailed off in his dirt debut, March 7, before switching to Jose D’Angelo’s barn and returning off of a 112-day break to run out a facile 7 3/4 lengths winner on the Gulfstream Park synthetic, 50-days ago.
Bettors had a legitimate reason to pass on D’Angelo’s trainee in this spot, as he had only just broken his maiden in what was a fairly soft MSW and was now facing proven stakes quality runners in his first start on turf.
Sent to post at odds of 12/1 on the good listed turf course, the son of MUNNINGS was hustled hard from gate two by Ramon Vasquez, before settling on the rail, 4 lengths behind fractions of 21.53, 44.49, set by FANDOM. Having travelled well through the first three furlongs, Vasquez started to advance his mount on the leaders turning for home and built up some nice forward momentum into the stretch, before trying to push on through a tight opening towards the rail. HOWARD WOLOWITZ responded willingly to his rider’s urgings and was starting to roll late on, moving right up onto the heels of FANDOM. From the pan shot, he looked as if he was going to slip up the rail and score, however, the door was firmly shut in his face. As the eventual top three finishers started to drift inwards approaching the line, VASQUEZ was forced to snatch at his reins, ceasing any chance of victory that resulted in the pair finishing on the bridle, 1 1/4 lengths behind the winner in 4th.
Similarly, to DETERMINED KINGDOM, this was a brutal trip, although this time, it may be a reach to say that HOWARD WOLOWITZ would definitely have won with a cleaner run. What is certain though, is that his 7 3/4 length MSW win last time was no fluke, and that he is going to be a legitimate player in this division going forward. He was by far the most inexperienced horse in this field, but D’Angelo knows a stakes horse when he sees one and clearly believed that HOWARD WOLOWITZ was up to this level. Having followed up the 92 Beyer that he earned at Gulfstream with a troubled 87 here, it’s hard to argue otherwise.
His pedigree is fairly precocious, so it will be interesting to see how far HOWARD WOLOWITZ can go in this division but considering that this was only his third career start and turf debut, you would expect that there is more to come, regardless of pedigree. The 3yo turf sprint division has room for another horse or two to break through into, and off the back of this effort, it could be HOWARD WOLOWITZ. He looks a sprinter to follow.
Sunday, Del Mar, Race 4: ROYAL CHARTER (2nd)
The Leonard Powell trained ROYAL CHARTER was turned over at even money in race four at Del Mar on Sunday, however, he still has the potential to develop into a very nice individual.
A €240,000 4yo son of EXPERT EYE, out of an un-raced half sister to 2016 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) winner, QUEEN’S TRUST, ROYAL CHARTER started his career in England, where he reached a very respectable level before hopping over the pond to further his career in California.
In his American debut on April 6, Powell’s trainee looked every part a future stakes horse, when overcoming a 219-day layoff to score by 2 lengths at Santa Anita, earning a Beyer of 87.
Not seen again since, ROYAL CHARTER proved to be a handful behind the gate on Sunday but did get away well, before Mike Smith took him back and positioned him in third last as the high-class field rounded the clubhouse turn. Reluctant to settle for Smith, the big bay colt tugged his way through the opening 1/4 mile, which was covered in at a married man’s pace of 24.50 seconds. Reylu Gutierrez then stepped on the gas and sent REAL FIRE into the lead, injecting a bit of pace into the race, which resulted in the field becoming spread out by almost double-digit lengths, and Mike Smith instantly had to go from restraining his mount, to asking him to get closer to the pace. Having regathered their rhythm and built up a degree of forward momentum down the back stretch, the pair were forced briefly wait on the rail at the 5/16 pole, before angling out into the three path and continuing their run in the stretch. Try as he might, ROYAL CHARTER simply couldn’t get to the eventual 35/1 winner, OMAHA GIRL, who had sat close enough throughout to kick away at the head of the lane and establish an insurmountable lead.
It’s fairly common knowledge by now, that inside speed on the Del Mar turf course is golden at the moment. In fact, prior to Sunday’s card, only 4 out of 35 turf route race winners at this meet had managed to come from over five lengths off of the lead after the first 1/2 mile. That meant that ROYAL CHARTER was facing an uphill battle to win from his position in this strangely run race, as he was 6 ½ lengths back after the ½, and still had 3 1/2 lengths to make up at the 1/4 pole, which was before he gave away valuable ground by being forced wide into the stretch.
Regardless of the defeat, the fact that he did in fact manage to close late and beat a total of five listed and graded stake winners/placed performers, while giving away race fitness, strongly suggests that he has plenty of ability and he galloped out strongly too, which is always a good sign.
ROYAL CHARTER was compromised by the nature of both the track and stop-start way that the race was run. A strong argument can be made that going forward, he will emerge as by far the best horse to come out of this race and as he remains unexposed on this side of the Atlantic, a mulligan for this effort. His pedigree, European form and American debut are truer reflections of his ability.
So, stick him in your tracker and take advantage of what will hopefully be more generous price on this well-bred and promising individual next time.
I hope that you all had an enjoyable and successful weekend of wagering and remember to subscribe to ITM Plus for more!