Players’ Newsletter - Royal Ascot Primer

We’ll have Royal Ascot coverage for all five days of racing this coming week. There will be free podcasts on inthemoneypodcast.com for each day with Naomi Tukker and I. We have a great lineup of guests assembled to join us during the week, so make sure to check it out!

In addition, there will be daily tips for our ITM Plus subscribers from Rob Dove. He has graciously provided a free preview of what to look for heading into the meeting below.

Baby Talk also returned for the week as Sean Tugel and Callum Helliwell joined to cover the two-year old races set to take place throughout Royal Ascot.

MYWAYP,

PTF

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Rob Dove Royal Ascot Preview

Here are a few of my thoughts on what to consider when looking at trainers, jockeys, draw & pace

Trainers

Lets kick off with a look at Wesley Ward, with his 2 year olds he’s 9/42 over 5f at Ascot (with 18% placed) but he’s never trained a 2yo winner over 6 or 7 furlongs out of 19 attempts (with only 6% placed). This maybe partially down to it being alot easier to make all at 5f here than 6 or 7f.

Aidan O'brien has had the most runners over the last 5 years but he’s been performing a bit below market expectations especially with his 3 year olds & his sprinters.

John Gosden has been getting his horses primed for the occasion and when he puts Frankie up they’ve been hitting at a 20% strike rate with a nice positive ROI (return on investment).

Charlie Appleby doesn’t seem to target this meeting but the runners he does send run up to market expectations without any patterns emerging.

Trainers that haven’t done so well the last few years are Mark Johston 4/80 ,Richard Hannon 1/64, Archie Watson 0/44 & Saeed Bin Suroor 1/27.

Trainers who are worth looking out for in the handicaps are Charlie Fellowes 3/7, Ian Williams 2/11 & Alan King 2/11.

Jockeys

William Buick is a jockey to look out for on the straight track , he’s got a 17% strike rate with a very nice ROI. Frankie Dettori & James Doyle also have very respectable positive ROI’s(on straight or round). Ryan Moore has a good strike rate but a negative ROI. Silvestre De Sousa is a jockey to avoid here his aggressive style seemingly not suited to the more hold up friendly track.

Up & coming Rossa Ryan is a jockey I’ve been very impressed with the last few years, I love his position on a horse , you could have made a blind profit backing all his mounts blind the last 5 years & he should get a few nice rides this year at Ascot for Amo racing.

Draw

The straight track can be a very confusing beast, no discernable bias is evident looking at the stats over the years but biases do pop up, at last years meeting stands side appeared favoured but in some years the bias has moved around, possibly due to watering or parts of the track getting churned up. Sometimes the going stick readings give you a clue watching where some of the big name jockeys want to race might also help.

The round course has a more evident bias, at 8,10 & 12f the inside 4 stalls all perform below expectations & in big fields it pays to side with horses drawn wide especially in the 12f handicaps. This is presumably down to the inside not being great & maybe it gets churned up as the week goes on making it more pertinent at the tail end of the meeting.

Pace

The straight course is uphill pretty much all the way & runs west south west which often means they’re running into a headwind (the prevailing wind in the UK is south westerly), it can often pay to be held up especially over the longer trips getting plenty of cover. Over 5 furlongs though front runners can be away and gone & do quite well against expected. Obviously a close eye should be kept on the wind when it comes to the straight track ,I recommend www.xcweather.co.uk for its simple interface.

On the round course front runners win at the expected rate but at most other tracks front runners win well above the expected rate (front running is a natural bias) so I’m not a fan of backing likely leaders that are coming from more friendly front end tracks, this may come down to the inside not being the place to be . The straight is quite short which I think makes it tricky for deep closers, the best trip maybe prominent & off the fence ready to strike turning for home.

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If you want to crush Royal Ascot, make sure to subscribe to ITM Plus for Rob Dove’s daily tips!

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Baby Talk: Royal Ascot Special Edition

Brought to you by Gainesway.

PTF is here with Sean Tugel and Callum Helliwell, a researcher for Sky Sports Racing (and our secret weapon) as we go over all the two-year-old races at Royal Ascot, which starts next week.

Royal Ascot starts Tuesday and can be watched via your ADW, TVG, or NBC’s Peacock. Saturday’s racing will be covered on big NBC. The first race each day is 9:30 ET.

Naomi Tukker and PTF will have special shows for every day with special guests including Nick Luck, Scott Hazelton, Gina Bryce, Barry Faulkner, and more!

We thank Gainesway for sponsoring, and encourage you to check out their website to learn more. We are rooting for their runner Spendarella in the Coronation Stakes on Friday.

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