Players' Newsletter - Racing Flow™ Upgrades & Downgrades
Players' Newsletter - Racing Flow™ Upgrades & Downgrades
And Special Offer!
Jake Jacobs of Racing Flow™ has kindly provided some Flow upgrades and downgrades for the Oaks card. You’ve heard PTF reference these over the years and here’s a previous episode that has more information.
Jake is also offering a fantastic promotion exclusively for ITM Players’ Newsletter Subscribers. Sign up for one month of Racing Flow™ and he’ll extend your access through the end of the SARATOGA meet. Just go to RacingFlow.com and click the Full Service - 1 Month $80.00 button. To see the components of a Racing Flow™ subscription, click here.
PS - If you visit RacingFlow.com and scroll to the bottom, they provide some Racing Flow™ analysis on all of the Kentucky Derby preps for free!
Notes
BIAS - indicates whether a racing surface favored speed versus stretch runners. Large negative BIAS figures denote a speed bias. Large positive BIAS figures indicates a surface putting speed at a disadvantage.
FLOW - indicates whether the race shape favored speed versus stretch runners. Large negative FLOW figures denote a speed favoring scenario. Large positive FLOW figures denote scenarios favoring a deep closer.
CFR (closer favorability ratio) - combines the independent effects of BIAS and FLOW into a single figure indicating whether the race favored speed versus closers. The CFR ranges from a low of 1 (most speed favoring) to 100 (best for stretch runners).
Racing Flow™ Upgrades and Downgrades for Gulfstream Park - Florida Derby Day
Race 1 - Benefactor collapsed despite speed favoring FLOW (DOWNGRADE).
Race 2 - Mai Ty One On wired field in last with speed favoring FLOW (DOWNGRADE). Grainger County also wired with favorable FLOW (DOWNGRADE).
Race 3 - Sorry, we’ve got nothing in the Orchid.
Race 4 - Sorry, we’ve got nothing here either.
Race 5 - Mannix (my favorite show when I was a kid) raced vs PLOD in the latest (UPGRADE).
Race 6 - Speedster Laughing Boy was against a 90 CFR in 3yo finale (UPGRADE). Capocostello was up against a PLOD in North American debut.
Race 7 - We’ve got nothing in the Sand Springs.
Race 8 - Frippet was vs PLOD after the awkward start in debut (UPGRADE).
Race 9 - We’ve got nothing in the Pan American.
Race 10 - Collaborate overcame speed favoring CRF 15 in 4yo debut and was vs CFR 16 in G2 (UPGRADE).
Race 11 - Plod Boys love Lady Puchi, who is double vs PLOD and a vs PLOD winner of her maiden breaker. Hope she gets pace to run down (BOLD UPGRADE).
Race 12 - We’ve got nothing in the Oaks.
Race 13 - Nothing in the Appleton either.
Race 14 - The (CFR 98) Sam F. Davis favored stretch runners. That makes Strike Hard a DOWNGRADE and Classic Causeway an UPGRADE. Charge It is also a downgrade based on the speed favoring (CFR 3) maiden breaker. The day’s final downgrade is Steal Sunshine, who benefitted from a closer friendly CRF 100.
Racing Flow™ Upgrades and Downgrades for Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby Day
Race 1 - Santos Dumont was the rare vs PLOD winner off a layoff (BOLD UPGRADE).
Race 2 - Mean Jakey failed despite favorable FLOW in last (DOWNGRADE).
Race 3 - Gospel Way went quick to ZIP in WO finale (UPGRADE). Dirt a question mark.
Race 4 - Several of these exit the 3/13 OP 8th . My Sixth Sense was most compromised by the speed favoring FLOW (UPGRADE).
Race 5 - Sorry, we’ve got nothing.
Race 6 - Commander Compton failed in CD finale despite favorable FLOW (DOWNGRADE).
Race 7 - Pharoah's Heart was nearly a vs PLOD winner of his last (UPGRADE).
Race 8 - Incorruptible got away with favorable FLOW in latest (DOWNGRADE).
Race 9 - Market Analysis made a mild rally despite PLOD two weeks ago (UPGRADE). Roadster caved at most recent at LRL despite speed favoring FLOW (DOWNGRADE).
Race 10 - Sorry, we’ve got nothing.
Race 11 - Happymac faded in latest despite speed favoring FLOW (DOWNGRADE). Upstriker was compromised by the soft FLOW of the same race (modest UPGRADE).
Race 12 - Sorry, we’ve got nothing in the feature.
Race 13 - Mahomey and Mrs. Beans were compromised by speed favoring FLOW 2/25 (UPGRADES, both).
Racing Flow™ Upgrades and Downgrades for Turfway Park - Jeff Ruby Steaks Day
Race 1 - Fast Felix was against a speed favoring FLOW in debut (UPGRADE).
Race 2 - Sorry, we’ve got nothing.
Race 3 - Wave of Goodness was a vs PLOD winner of his last (UPGRADE).
Race 4 - Lucky Devil made up late ground in same speed favoring race as Fast Felix (UPGRADE).
Race 5 - Sorry, we’ve got nothing.
Race 6 - Also Eligible Joyful Heart dueled in an extremely closer friendly event last week (BIAS +208, FLOW +228). Winner of that event came from the clouds (UPGRADE).
Race 7 - Alydiva overcame a CFR 11 in stakes debut but could not overcome CFR 6 is last (UPGRADE). The beneficiary of that PLOD was Breeze Rider (DOWNGRADE). Wait for Nairobi was also compromised by the 2/26 PLOD (UPGRADE).
Race 8 - Sorry, we’ve got nothing in the Rushaway.
Race 9 - Hoist the Gold exits consecutive PLODS (BOLD UPGRADE). Stonevicious wired in last with benefit of both BIAS -156 and FLOW -115 (DOWNGRADE).
Race 10 - Sorry, we’ve got nothing in the Kentucky Cup.
Race 11 - Red Hot Mama got a red-hot FLOW +239 to rally into breaking maiden (DOWNGRADE). Schlofmitz rallied on the toughest surface for speed seen all year - BIAS -256 (DOWNGRADE). Vergara got up despite speed favoring conditions in her 2yo stakes win (UPGRADE).
Race 12 - Stolen Base benefitted from closer friendly conditions in last two races (DOWNGRADE). Red Run got a good setup at Sam Houston.