Live Longshots and Vulnerable Favorites
2025 Kentucky Derby/Oaks Edition, By Drew Coatney 2022 BCBC Champion
Before we dive in, we should acknowledge that “vulnerable favorite” can mean many things to many people. For our purposes, these are horses with odds that are disproportionate to their actual odds of winning. Most of the horses below have a great chance of winning, just not a 70% chance of winning. With that out of the way, let’s find some value by identifying where favorites can be faded.
Race 5: Edgewood Stakes, 8.5f (T) picks 2, 8, 5
This race feels SOOO perfect for an upset
Fading: #5 Nitrogen (8/5) I expect this horse to get the snot bet out of it. I would guess 4/5 is what we’ll see on the day. That’s way too low for a day where every trainer and owner is trying to win on the biggest stage. And with 3 year old fillies, they may have not been fully laid out for their last events. This horse will have to fend off the inside horse of #2 Vixen for a similar pressing trip (who #5 Vixen beat last time but that was because #2 Vixen got demolished down on the inside and trapped). Give me the 4x price on the #2 Vixen all day!
Race 7: La Troienne 8.5f: picks 4, 2, 5… Thorepdo Anna falters…