Kentucky Oaks and Derby Newsletter
RacingFlow Upgrades and Downgrades for Kentucky Oaks!
It’s here…This is a special edition of the Players’ Newsletter as wanted to curate all of the content across the ITM Network. We’ve outlined and provided a link to all of the FREE content as well as the ITM Plus exclusive content - Still plenty of time to subscribe!
Thank you for your support ahead of what figures to be a great two days of action. Feel free to share this newsletter with family and friends and as always…
MYWAYP,
PTF
***Don’t forget to catch today’s Racing Flow upgrades and downgrades - Something only posted here in the Players’ Newsletter!
FREE - Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Coverage:
Kentucky Oaks and Derby Final Answers Show
Kentucky Oaks and Derby Pro Player Roundtable Show
Two Day Pick 6 Ticket Construction - Nick Tammaro (Friday Morning)
Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles
OTHERS:
Make sure to check the ITM Blog for Eric Solomon’s full card analysis of Oaks and Derby Day
The Owner’s Box - Michelle, Billy and JK discuss contenders and pretenders
The Matt Bernier Show - Kentucky Oaks and Derby Show
Talk Racing to Me - Laffit Pincay on Derby Contenders
ITR with Acacia Courtney - Jake Ballis and Mark Casse
Kentucky Oaks - Horse by Horse Analysis from PTF
Kentucky Derby - Horse by Horse Analysis from PTF
Churchill Downs Stakes Races By The Numbers
If you’re looking for more - Try ITM Plus. You’ll get all of the exclusive content below AND your $10 gets you coverage for a month, which obviously means through Preakness!
ITM Picks Grid
Top 3 Selections for ALL Stakes races on Oaks (Friday Morning) and Derby Day (Friday afternoon)
PTF, Jonathon Kinchen, Nick Tammaro, and more of the ITM Family
Jonathon Kinchen Derby Day Pick Strategy (Friday afternoon)
Kentucky Derby Speed Figure Heat Map
Oaks - Old Forrester Turf Classic - Derby Pick 3
Analysis from Drew Coatney
Kentucky Derby RacingFlow Upgrade and Downgrades (Friday afternoon)
Kentucky Derby Final Answers Summary
Kentucky Derby Oaks and Derby Wagering Strategy
Strategy for three different budgets - $250, $500 and $1,000
Kentucky Oaks Early Pick 5 Analysis - Exclusive Podcast
Nick Tammaro and Blake Jessee
Kentucky Derby Early Pick 5 Analysis - Exclusive Podcast (Friday Morning)
Nick Tammaro and Blake Jessee
RacingFlow Upgrades and Downgrades for Kentucky Oaks Day
Jake Jacobs of Racing Flow has kindly provided some Flow upgrades and downgrades for the Oaks card. You’ve heard PTF reference these over the years and here’s a previous episode that has more information. We are planning a partnership with Jake for ITM Plus Subscribers…And we will send similar summaries to ITM Plus subscribers for the Kentucky Derby Card.
Race 1
#4 Powder River - closed a bit of ground in latest at FG despite speed favoring (FLOW -200) conditions (upgrade).
Race 2
#3 Kizzy B was racing against FLOW (+110) and BIAS (+139) when she could not hold off a deep closer at KEE (upgrade).
Race 3
#9 Hatmaker Holiday showed speed in an impossible FLOW +235 race in her WO finale (upgrade).
Race 4
#7 Tabor Hall took the lead in the speed friendly (CFR 1) Honeybee, yet faltered badly (downgrade).
Race 6
#1 Visitant overcame a speed friendly CFR 10 on 3/10 and an even more speed friendly Stakes on 3/27 (bold upgrade).
#3 Attachment Rate closed a bit into a speed friendly CFR 10 in his latest (upgrade).
Race 7
#3 Barista has been up against very speed friendly conditions (CFR 1 & 3) in last two. Went 2 for 2 under neutral conditions to close out 2020 (upgrade).
Race 9
#12 Caramel Swirl swept past MSW rivals despite speed favoring (CFR 5) conditions (upgrade).
Race 10
#3 Fiya took advantage of speed friendly (CFR 3) conditions in the Claiming Crown (downgrade).
Race 11
#1 Pauline’s Pearl was up against it in the speed friendly (CFR 1) Honeybee, then got here G3 win under fair-for-all condition 4 weeks later (upgrade).
Notes
BIAS - indicates whether a racing surface favored speed versus stretch runners. Large negative BIAS figures denote a speed bias. Large positive BIAS figures indicates a surface putting speed at a disadvantage.
FLOW - indicates whether the race shape favored speed versus stretch runners. Large negative FLOW figures denote a speed favoring scenario. Large positive FLOW figures denote scenarios favoring a deep closer.
CFR (closer favorability ratio) - combines the independent effects of BIAS and FLOW into a single figure indicating whether the race favored speed versus closers. The CFR ranges from a low of 1 (most speed favoring) to 100 (best for stretch runners).
Where is The pick 5 notes for today?