Kentucky Derby Prep Review & UPDATED Top 10 - ITM Players' Newsletter
+ more Weekend Eye Catchers!
Welcome to our latest 2025 Kentucky Derby TOP 10, where we continue tracking the most intriguing three-year-olds on the Road to the Roses. In this video, we break down the recent Holy Bull and Withers Stakes results, offer a fresh update on Citizen Bull, discuss Captain Cook’s impressive run, and raise the question: what do we do with Ferocious? We also look ahead to the upcoming Risen Star, where East Avenue and Jonathan’s Way are set to clash and potentially bring more clarity to this ever-evolving Derby trail.
Players’ Podcast: Kentucky Derby Point Race Review and More
The show kicks off with PTF and Nick Tammaro looking back at a trio of Kentucky Derby prep races from last weekend: Burnham Square’s win in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Citizen Bull’s three-year-old debut in the Lewis stakes at Santa Anita, and Captain Cook’s nice effort in the Withers at Aqueduct.
Then they dive deeper into various Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita races from the weekend.
For the final segment, recent $100,000 winner Jim Tragos, who took down the 1/ST Grand Three, joins PTF to talk about his time being a horseplayer and his winning strategy in the contest.
2025 Kentucky Derby Top 10 + Other Contenders
Newly added section for horses now off the Derby trail or questionable to start in another Derby prep!
Recent Beyers, replays, and next likely starts for the top 20 contenders. Plus freshly updated thoughts on over 30 other horses on the Derby trail.
Subscribe to ITM Plus for exclusive picks, written analysis, and shows from your favorite ITM contributors!
Weekend Eye Catchers - January 31-February 2, 2025
By Will Humphrey
Having featured in this article after he powered home to finish second at odds of 30/1 in a 6-furlongs maiden claimer last October, it was a lot of fun to see BURNHAM SQUARE confirm himself to be a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender, courtesy of a commanding success in the G3 Holy Bull S. on Saturday. Hopefully, the following horses, all of whom caught the eye over the weekend, can prove to be just as profitable to follow going forward. Let’s dive in.
Friday, Tampa Bay Downs R7: TAKE DAT (2nd)
Regardless of class level, it’s hard for any horse to break their maiden on debut. It’s even more difficult if their first race comes around two turns, and even more difficult again if they’re taking on a Chad Brown trained 3/5 favorite. The odds were firmly stacked against TAKE DAT as she took to the track for the first time in Tampa’s seventh on Friday, yet she nearly pulled a win out the bag regardless, weaving her way through traffic from over 7-lengths off the pace to miss by just a neck to the aforementioned Chad Brown trained, FUNDAMENTALLY. HERE’S THE REPLAY.
There weren’t any hard luck stories in this race for Claude McGaughey’s newly turned 4-year-old daughter of Brazilian sire BAL A BALI - she sat a perfect trip throughout - and I’m not suggesting that she’s necessarily destined for great things following this effort. However, for a first-time starter, it was hard not to be enamored with the way in which she settled early, responded willingly to her rider’s urgings, changed leads and quickened up powerfully between rivals in the stretch, and overall, just made a great visual impression.
She almost proved to be best in this race despite the fact that she was conceding both race-day experience and match fitness to almost all of her rivals, and the fact that over the last five years, McGaughey has hit at just 7% (3-for-44) with first time starting 3yo’s+ in route races. TAKE DAT overcame a lot to run a great race was rewarded with a respectable 71 Beyer.
While it’s unlikely that TAKE DAT is going to reach the lofty heights set by her two-time G1 winning dam, TAKE D’TOUR, it is likely that, with this first career start now behind her, she’ll be able to step forward from this effort next time. And therefore, especially as McGaughey hits at a much improved 28% (15-for-53; $2.22 ROI) with second out routers who hit the board on debut, you can expect her to graduate out of the maiden ranks in a similar quality MSW very soon - make sure to be onboard when she does.
Saturday, Tampa Bay Downs R9: NORTHERN INVADER (2nd)
Flavian Prat and Chad Brown had quite the day at Tampa on Saturday, scooping both graded stakes as well as a couple of undercard races for good measure. The third of their winners, RUNNING BEE, was bet into even money and duly obliged in impressive fashion in race nine - the G3 Tampa Bay S. In the process, he took 0.40 seconds off EMMANUEL’s previous track record, setting a new fastest time for 1 1/16 miles of 1:38.85 - impressive stuff.
For RUNNING BEE to break the track record on Saturday, he needed a strong pace to run at, and he received that from the Cherie DeVaux trained, NORTHERN INVADER. Under Edwin Gonzalez, the West Point Thoroughbreds and David Ingordo owned son of COLLECTED quickly sped to the lead and wasted no time in front, blazing a statement of intent through fractions of 22.67 and 45.76, opening up on the field by ~3 lengths down the back stretch. At the second point of call, RUNNING BEE was sitting 10 lengths off the lead in seventh, the eventual third place finisher, IRISH ACES, was 8 lengths off the lead in fourth, and the fourth place finisher, LORENZ, was 12 lengths off the pace in ninth. The pace that NORTHERN INVADER set ultimately set the race up perfectly for the closers and in theory, should have seen him fold like a cheap deck chair at the top of the lane. However, there was simply no quit in him. He would not lie down, breaking the hearts of every rival who tried to challenge him as he just kept pouring it on in front. Only RUNNING BEE and IRISH ACES ever managed to get to within length of him; RUNNING BEE was the only horse who managed to get by. The chart comment reads “dug in gamely, held 2nd”, but that’s a complete understatement. This was a huge effort from NORTHERN INVADER that saw him earn a career best Beyer of 97. HERE’S THE REPLAY.
A new best Beyer of 97 is nothing to be sniffed at, especially as it was his first start for 105-days, and with it also being his first start as a gelding, chances are it wasn’t a fluke either. Gelding operations can completely rejuvenate horses, and therefore, if now without his jewels, he’s simply an even better horse than before, who knows how far he can climb with this comeback effort now behind him? Could he be a 100+ Beyer horse? Possibly. With Cherie DeVaux at the helm, you know that he’ll always be well spotted and tuned to the minute, and with an attitude such as the one he displayed on Saturday, you can trust him to be outrunning his odds again very soon. He’s a talented horse who could be sitting on a big 2025 and one that I wasn’t to keep onside going forward.
Sunday, Fair Grounds R5: SWAGING (2nd)
Following two rock-solid runner-up efforts on the dirt, it was little surprise to see the Godolphin homebred son of NYQUIST, BRUHN, justify favoritism and finally get off the mark on Sunday, courtesy of a switch to the turf in Fair Ground’s fifth - a 5 1/2f MSW. Had this race been over a little further though, BRUHN would likely still be a maiden; SWAGING was the horse to take out of the race.
No doubt impacted by the fact that Jose Ortiz had been attracted for the ride and since moving his tack to the Fair Grounds, had gone 5-for-5 with trainer Joseph Felks, the newly turned 4-year-old son of CITY OF LIGHT, SWAGING, was bet down into odds of 5/2 for his career debut on Sunday. And, had he not raced greenly down the back stretch, dropping himself ~6 lengths off the pace while climbing behind horses before conceding valuable ground in the seven-path rounding into the stretch, he could easily have rewarded his backers too.
His visible greenness and wide trip meant that he had nine horses in front of him at the top of the stretch, plus a trip to work out from in behind rivals. Therefore, it was mightily impressive to see that, when finally clear and fully understanding of the task at hand, SWAGING inhaled all but one of his rivals with powerful strides to cross the line just a length behind the winner. HERE’S THE STRETCH RUN, where you can see for yourself the eye-catching late charge that he makes at BRUHN, and then crucially, for just a moment right at the end of the clip, how impressively he gallops out - full of energy and well ahead of the field.
The nice thing about this debut effort from SWAGING was that, while showing clear signs of talent, he also left plenty of room for improvement; it was a sheer lack of racing experience that led to him getting so far back early, despite that fact that Jose was visibly encouraging him to hold his position, and he also took far longer than necessary to unleash that powerful late kick of his in the stretch. I expect that he learnt a huge amount from this run and will put in an all round more accomplished effort next time. Considering that over the last five years, Felks has gone 3-for-8 (38%) with second time starters and 19-for-50 (38%) with all horses who hit the board last out ($2.54 ROI), that could make him tough to beat.
Having cost $560,000 as a yearling at Keeneland September in 2022, SWAGING has quite the task ahead if he’s going to repay his connections fully and make them any profit on their purchase. For our sake, however, he looks a sure-fire winner in waiting and can easily stick us in the green next time.
Winners to Mention…
Just one potentially under-the-radar winner from the weekend really impressed me this week: Brendan Walsh’s SAN SIRO, who put in a spectacular performance to win the sixth at the Fair Grounds on Saturday - a OC 50k/N2X going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. HERE’S THE STRETCH RUN.
Since being gelded last spring, the $150k 4-year-old son of CLASSIC EMPIRE has gone from strength to strength, winning three of his last six starts with a Beyer speed figure pattern of 76, 76, 86, 89, 89 and now, having waltzed in by 4 1/2 lengths on Saturday, another huge career best of Beyer 97. Considering how comfortably he put away this talented field of horses, that included multiple stake winner/GSP performer NASH, it wouldn’t be a surprise if SAN SIRO had more to offer again going forward and if he was to now dabble in stake race or two, nobody could dismiss him. He’s a likable and consistent performer who is being superbly campaigned by Walsh and could be dangerous to oppose while in this rich vein of form.
Out of the Tracker…
ITMEs exiting the tracker this week, to ensure that those with current entries highlighted in both these lines and Saturday’s ‘Horses to Follow’ email are those I still believe to be worth keeping onside/given extra consideration when wagering are…
KEEPSAKE: Heavily bet on debut, KEEPSAKE came flying home late to finish an eye-catching second for Brad Cox. Two subsequent odds-on defeats were not forecast.
HOT PROPERTY: Having been so impressive on debut it’s been disappointing to see HOT PROPERTY fail to build on his promise. A move to the turf last week produced little improvement.
NOSLEEPTILBROOKLYN: A well-bred Brian Lynch trainee, NOSLEEPTILBROOKLYN flashed ability when finishing a troubled second in a Fair Grounds MSW last year; still a maiden, he’s been expensive to follow and was so again last Thursday.
Former ITM Eye-catchers With Current Entries
Recent eye-catchers BURNHAM SQUARE ($10.60), RIVER THAMES ($3.40), TENMA ($2.40) and THE WARDEN ($13.40) all scored over the past weekend. So, make sure to keep your eyes peeled for these former ITMEs with entries this week and check Saturday’s ‘Horses to Follow’ email for the weekend’s ITMEs.
Wednesday
TP R9: DAIRAGO
Thursday
GP R5: ZVEREV
FG R8: PARTY ON GIRL
Friday
FG R7: THINK BIG
I hope that you had an enjoyable and successful past week at the windows, and good luck this week!
Pete,
Suggestion: post your Derby top 10 in this space (for free) rather than having to watch you tube. There are several other lists easily found and readable. Best, by far, is Steve Haskin at Secretariat.com. Byron King and TDN are others.