Kentucky Derby Pick 4 Matrix
What a doozy of a sequence in the Derby Pick 4 on this fine first Saturday in May. There’s a 14-race card at Churchill Downs, so that means the Pick 4 that ends with the Derby (G1) itself takes place in Races 9 through 12. Scheduled post time for Race 9 is 3:40 ET, and it’s a perfect way to make a huge score right as the SoCal races at Santa Anita Park (my bread and butter!) begin to get underway. So, let’s dig in and see if we can make some $$$ in this challenging sequence! For more of what I’m doing, follow me on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot or check out my new website, www.frankscatoni.com.
Race 9 (Leg 1):
We kick off the sequence with an oversubscribed field of 16 horses entered in a very competitive renewal of the $500K American Turf (G2), an 8.5-furlong turf affair for 3-year-olds.
#1 MAJOR DUDE (5/2), the first Pletcher entrant, has been a major dude since getting on turf, finishing first or second in four of his last five races (including one on synth). His only poor race came when he had to break from the 13-hole in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). Today he gets to save ground while racing at his preferred distance of 8.5-furlongs, where he’s a perfect 2-for-2. “Any major dude with half a heart surely will tell you, my friend” that it’s tough to take a favorite in such a full field, but you’d be silly not to use him. GRADE: A.
#2 FAR BRIDGE (7/2), the second Pletcher runner, was a perfect 2-for-2 under Clement before he switched barns. He faces stakes foes for the first time, but this runner has shown plenty of talent, and he’s certainly run fast enough to have a say in here, especially if he moves up at all today. Do note that win-rider Jose Ortiz, however, ends up elsewhere. GRADE: A.
#3 MENDELSSOHNS MARCH (12/1) has shown versatility with wins on turf (via DQ) and on dirt (in the slop), but he faces a stiff class test today against seemingly faster animals. He wasn’t totally disgraced in the Blue Grass (G1) when he had to break from the 11-hole, but he will need to conduct a forward move today for the W. GRADE: X.
#4 TALK OF THE NATION (10/1) is a perfect 2-for-2 on turf, including an easy win against overnight-stakes foes at Tampa last time as the 6/5 favorite. His come-home times are pretty solid, but he’s a horse who likes to stalk-and-pounce, so perhaps he’ll be a little too close to an anticipated quick early pace today. GRADE: B.
#5 JOHANNES (15/1) has exuded a lot of class since hopping on the turf to reel off three wins in a row in dominating fashion. I love the way he’s traveled out here in SoCal, but he’s going to face much tougher animals than the weaker fields he’s been beating up on. Still, I think there is a lot of ability here, and he’s plenty tactical, so Rispoli can put him wherever he wants. GRADE: A.
#6 BEHIND ENEMY LINES (GB) (30/1) made his first U.S. start a winning one, easily taking an overnight-stakes race at Gulfstream Park. He certainly looks like a horse who can go from 7.5-furlongs to today’s 8.5-furlongs, but he’s facing some tough customers, so he’ll need another step forward today. Also note that win-rider Jose Ortiz ends up elsewhere, though you lose nothing with Prat, of course. GRADE: X.
#7 DESERT DUKE (30/1) has won two in a row in wire fashion, beating up on maidens two back and then allowance foes last time. He’s made it look easy, but I’m having a hard time seeing him wire this group. And guess what? Win-rider Jose Ortiz ends up elsewhere! GRADE: X.
#8 MO STASH (10/1) just wired foes to take a Grade 3 at Keeneland on good turf. He doesn’t necessarily need the lead, but he does like to be forwardly placed, and I’m anticipating a pretty honest pace in here, so this guy will have to really earn a victory today, while turning the tables on Talk of the Nation, who beat him on the square two back. GRADE: X.
#9 ANGLOPHILE (50/1) came off a long layoff to run a decent second to Behind Enemy Lines (GB) in a 7.5-furlong affair at Gulfstream Park. He can certainly move forward today, but will it be enough to beat the best in here? Probably not. GRADE: X.
#10 OTAGO (30/1) is a Florida-bred who is likely looking at a wide stalking trip—and that’s not usually the winning one on turf. He’ll also have to show he can handle open stakes company after just beating state-bred stakes foes by a neck. GRADE: X.