Kentucky Derby Day Picks Grid
All 3YO $3 Pick 3!
We’ve got an outstanding lineup for our ITM Picks Grid this year.
The usual suspects are here - PTF, JK, Nick T. and Michelle Yu. And we’ve added the Erics as they’ve done an amazing job covering the Derby Trail all year long.
If there are significant scratches or surface changes we will make every effort to provide an update.
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BOLD = Best Bet
RED = Value Play
Drew Coatney - All 3YO $3 Minimum Pick 3
The Wager: $102 Budget
5 w 5 w 12, 3 = $24 base bet, $48 total -> strongest opinion, make sure we get paid
4,12 w 5,7 w 12,3 = $3 base bet, $24 total -> coverage line for chaos, and I’ll be using the 7 in leg 2 as I don’t want to lose after hitting a big price horse in the first leg
5 w 9 w 12,3 = $9 base bet, $18 total -> back up in second leg
4,12 w 9 w 12,3 = $3 base bet, $12 total -> back up in second leg, less weighting needed due to price in leg 1
Race 7: Pat Day Mile 8f, one turn
Lots of speed in here and this race feels like the most volatile of the bunch. With 3 y/o cutting back, speed has a tendency to not hold as well with the one turn configuration (running fast early, trying to run faster late).
A/Logical: #5 Jack Christopher (2-1) Will likely by 3/5 or less on the day. I’m not 100% sold on this horse in this race, but is the best of the speed and can sit off the two inside speed horses, stay in the clear, and kick home clear even with a small step forward off the maiden breaker race.
B/ Best Value: #12 O Captain (20-1) Another closer type who looks to relish in the 1 mile configuration. Will expect this one far back early and make a long sustained bid. Looks to be improving at the right time.
B/Longshot: #4 Ben Diesel (20-1) Ran against some good horses last out and had a few excuses. Today gets a full panel off and projects to have a nice rail saving ride. This horse has run a competitive figure and looks to be training into this race nicely. Big value play for the weekend and in a race where anything can happen, as mentioned above.
Race 9: American Turf 8.5f (T)
What an eye crossing race! Main Event is the key to this race. If he goes, then Coinage and Portfolio Company will also send to press the issue as their running styles suit a presser style. This pace really looks to be a melt down.
A+/Most Logical: #5 Balnikhov (5-1) If there’s any step forward left for this runner off the 88 Beyer, this horse will crush. Franco is more happy to sit close to the pace battle upfront and kick on clear late.
B/Best Value: #9 Stolen Base (12-1) Has been stuck on the Turfway synth track and comes back to the preferred turf surface. I like that this runner is one of the lone closers who consistently can get up into the frame. With the pace battle up front and today’s jockey upgrade with Prat, this horse looks to be getting right, and is trained by a turf legend (in Maker we trust). Will be overlooked in the betting and expect to see 10-1 or higher
x/Defensive Use: #7 Sy Dog (7/2) Hard to not use an unbeaten horse, but with the $3 min bets, it’s easy to “spread” and loose the leverage of your investment (e.g. those times we bet $100 and got $90 back). Closed into the slow pace last out and will have a better chance today to get the pace setup. Ortiz stays aboard which is a good sign as his usual ride would be with Chad Brown and the horse I’m against (see below)
X/Against: #6 Portfolio Company (9/2) Proven to not respond to pace pressure, will have this again today. Needs to show me this horse has turned the corner to take a short price. Will be heavily bet with Joel and Chad Brown.
Saturday: Race 12: Kentucky Derby G1 10f
A/Top Choice: #12 Taiba (12-1) The clock and the visuals are what I’m sticking to. In the last race, this horse showed he’s in full control and can overcome adversity. Dropping back in the backstretch to stalk behind #6 Messier was a very brave move, giving that horse a 3-4L lead advantage to his main rival. Around the far turn drew alongside going widest, then POWERED away. It’s hard to argue the best figures and has a proven tactical advantage. This is the patented Mike Smith ride, hands and heels to pull into position and power home the final 1/8th. The $1.7M purchase had very high expectations and the ceiling is far from known for this colt. Expect the price on the day to be closer to 6-1 with all those triple digit Beyers and the big price tag, easy horse for casual fans to get attracted to. Value will be in the multis where causal fans have less of an impact in the market.
A/Next Best/Most Logical: #3 Epicenter (7/2) Likely favorite on the day, will have all the chances to establish early position and run on. Continues to improve in each of the last three starts. Don’t love that this horse has yet to face some adversity, but with a small step forward will have a massive speed ability advantage.