Kentucky Derby - 3YO Pick 3
Frank Scatoni
May 4, 2024
$3 All 3-Year-Old Pick 3 at Churchill Downs
Frank R. Scatoni
INTRODUCTION
There’s a reason why both Keeneland and Santa Anita offer a $3 minimum all-turf Pick 3—and that’s because the higher denomination rewards good handicapping and ticket structure, whereas the typical Pick 3 minimum of fifty cents sometimes rewards big bankrolls or general laziness. So it’s no surprise that Churchill Downs also has a $3 minimum Pick 3 on their biggest day of the year—but theirs is actually cool from a marketing standpoint as well, because this $3 Pick 3 features all 3-year-old races! That’s right, we’ve got a special Pick 3 that features the Pat Day Mile (G2), the American Turf (G2), and the Kentucky Derby (G1). Let’s letter-grade all horses and see what we can come up with.
Leg 1/Race 8:
We kick things off with a fine renewal of the $600K Pat Day Mile (G2), a one-turn, one-mile affair for…you guessed it…3-year-olds! As an aside, if you ever see me at the track, ask me to tell you my Pat Day story (which Pete Fornatale can confirm!). You won’t be disappointed.
#1 CARBONE (10/1), the first Asmussen entrant, has speed and the rail, so he has no choice but to go hard from the bell, and that’s going to be an issue, since there are faster horses outside of him. GRADE: X.
#2 BEELINE (10/1) is a perfect 2-for-2, but both of his races have come at Gulfstream Park while going 6-furlongs. He’s also been on the lead in those starts as well. I like how game he was last time, but he only won by a nose while going shorter, so I’m doubtful he can carry that speed 8-furlongs today. That said, Irad Ortiz takes the call, so that has to count for something. GRADE: X.
#3 NORTHERN FLAME (20/1) has won two races, both in wire fashion—but he’s not going to make the lead in here, so can he show a new dimension today? He’s had some chances to come from off the pace, to no avail. I’m not seeing it. GRADE: X.
#4 OTTO THE CONQUEROR (12/1), the second Asmussen runner, knows how to win races, but he likes to be up on the pace, and we’ve already seen others who have the same run style, so something’s gotta give. He looks like a pace casualty to me. GRADE: X.
#5 SEIZE THE GREY (8/1) will be fit and running on strongly through the lane, so that is something to consider—but is he good enough to win? He’ll need a step forward, but he gets a dream set-up today. GRADE: A.
#6 GUANARE (30/1) was claimed off Dutrow for $100K last time, and his new trainer promptly adds blinkers and runs him in the toughest race of his life. I admire the confidence, but this guy seems in a bit too deep. That said, he does have two nice races against weaker foes that he could build upon if you think the new trainer can get back to that form. GRADE: X.
#7 WHO DEY (10/1) looks pretty good to me. He was undefeated as a juvenile, and that streak includes a win over this track and at this distance. He got a useful prep in a 7-furlong affair last time to start his sophomore campaign, and I have to think that this race has been the target all along. I’m surprised he’s as high as 10/1 on the line—but I also realize that three of those four wins last year came in the minor leagues. Still… GRADE: A.
#8 TOP CONOR (5/2) does not look like a 5/2 shot on paper, but I still think he’s a major contender, cutting back after setting a wicked fast pace in the Blue Grass (G1) last time in just his second career start. He should be sitting on a big one, and I like that he’s getting off the rail. GRADE: A.
#9 FROSTY INDULGENCE (30/1) was no match for Who Dey last time, but this guy did have to break from the rail, and he was making only his second career start, so I won’t be too harsh. There is room to grow, but he does need a big step forward. Maybe he can juice up your supers. GRADE: X.
#10 GETTYSBURG ADDRESS (30/1) couldn’t win an allowance race for Brad Cox, and yet here he is for Dallas Stewart, running in a Grade 2. That seems odd to me, but Stewart must think this guy has untapped potential. I don’t see it, but I also know that Stewart will likely have this guy grinding away all the way to the wire, so he’s another who could finish underneath at a huge number. GRADE: X.
#11 VLAHOS (8/1) was the best-kept secret at Santa Anita because he went off at 13/1 in his debut, but he won like a 1/9 shot. He broke alertly from the rail and just dominated, putting up a big fig. He switched barns after that, likely with this race in mind. There’s no denying that was a fast race—but can this guy replicate that going longer against winners (stakes ones to boot) for the first time? I’m skeptical, but I don’t like many others in here, so I don’t have to be a hero either. GRADE: B.
#12 NASH (3/1) looks pretty solid. He’s got good route form, so he’ll be fit; he should get a good tracking trip in a race that figures to have a hot pace; and he’s never finished off the board in six tries. That said, he’s lost a few times at very short odds, so how reliable is he? Luckily for him, he gets the dream set-up today. GRADE: A.
Leg 2/Race 9:
An oversubscribed field takes centerstage for Leg 2 of this Pick 3 sequence: the $600K American Turf (G2), an 8.5-furlong turf affair for 3-year-olds. There’s an absolute unit in this race, yet here we are with so many horses in it to win it, so maybe it’s a bit more wide-open than I think. Let’s see…
#1 TWIRLING POINT (15/1) is pretty versatile, and he rarely runs a bad race, but I’m unsure what kind of trip he’s going to get from the rail. He has enough speed to get position—but if he does that, he won’t outfinish a few of these. And if he tries to suck back, he might encounter a lot of traffic in this full field. Then there’s also the question of: Is he fast enough? GRADE: X.
#2 TRIKARI (15/1) has two wins, both on synth—but he did run well enough on turf two back, so it’s not like he can handle the surface. That said, he likes to be forwardly placed, and I think he’ll have some trouble when things start to quicken. GRADE: X.
#3 LAGYNOS (15/1) outran his 31/1 odds last time when flying late to just miss against a few of these at Keeneland. It was the best race of his career, so you can ignore the dirt form prior to that. Can he move forward today and reverse form on the two who just beat him—while also finishing strong enough to beat out the chalk? Maybe—but maybe not. GRADE: X.
#4 FORMIDABLE MAN (15/1) has good California form, like many of the others in here, but he’s going to be up on the pace early, and I’m not sure he’ll have the requisite oomph late to stave off the closers. GRADE: X.
#5 LEGEND OF TIME (GB) (7/2) looks like a boy amongst men, so if he’s anywhere near 7/2, sell your kidney and put it all on him to win! Well, I’m exaggerating (please don’t sell your kidney), but this guy has terrific overseas form, ridiculous breeding, and a trainer who knows how to win big races on big days. GRADE: A.
#6 NEAT (6/1) is a neat horse. He’s undefeated while routing on turf, and that’s exactly what he’s doing today. He was game in victory last time against a few of these, despite coming off a three-month layoff in a race that was probably a prep for this. I can’t knock him—but I’m not sure he’s in the same league as his inside neighbor, and even at 6/1, he won’t offer much value in this wager. GRADE: B.
#7 STAY HOT (10/1) is probably the best of the California contingent, but I think his three-race win streak probably ends here. I love that he’s versatile and game and knows how to win, but if he’s only winning by a nose out West, how is he going to outfinish some tougher rivals here? GRADE: X.
#8 LORD BULLINGDON (15/1) is another SoCal invader who has talent, but he’s been mostly swimming in a small pond. That said, I was surprised how well he ran against a few of these last time when finishing fourth at 33/1 at Keeneland, but he still lost nonetheless, so he’ll need to do better today to turn the tables on those foes. GRADE: X.
#9 NOTED (15/1) has run some nice races, but he seems to run the same figure almost every time, so where will the progression come from today? I think Pletcher asked himself the same question, and the best he could come up with was: add blinkers. Maybe that will be a difference-maker—but I’m not so sure. GRADE: X.
#10 SET (10/1), the first Casse entrant, has dominated in each of his two starts at Gulfstream Park while racing on or near the lead while going shorter. Can he transfer that form to this tougher spot? I’m not sure how good those races were—and I think this guy will have some company up front, so if he wins, he’ll certainly have earned it. GRADE: X.
#11 CUGINO (10/1) has never run a bad race, and he’s less than a length and a half away from being undefeated instead of having just one win. So it’s no surprise that McGaughey adds blinkers today to avoid the same tough-luck fate. Will it work? We shall see—but Shug has been a bit cold with that move of late. GRADE: B.
#12 ABRUMAR (10/1) is undefeated since joining the Joseph barn—but all of those races have come at Gulfstream Park. I can’t knock a horse who knows how to win—but this is a far cry from South Florida. GRADE: X.
#13 CAN GROUP (15/1), the second Casse runner, would be my wise-guy play in here at 15/1. He’s never run a bad race on turf, and even though he just lost to a few of these, he had to break from the 10-hole, so just forget about that race. He ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) last year, showing a really nice late run—and he should be sitting on a peak effort third off the bench. I doubt he can beat the Euro, but he offers value, and I definitely want him on some tickets. GRADE: A.
#14 AGATE ROAD (5/1), the second Pletcher, has good turf form, so toss his last race on dirt and focus on his solid runs on the lawn. He knows how to run on through the lane, so you can expect him to be coming late. Will he get there? Maybe…but maybe not, and 5/1 seems awfully short. GRADE: B.
#15 BLUE EYED GEORGE (15/1) (AE) will appreciate a return to the turf, but he seems a cut below some of the others in here. Plus, he likes to stalk the pace, and that’s going to be an issue from out here. GRADE: X.
#16 ROCK’N A HALO (20/1) (AE) takes off the hood after trying it last time. He didn’t run poorly, so I bet he’ll move forward today after that try. Still, he seems too slow to threaten in here, especially from this post. GRADE: X.
#17 DANCING GROOM (20/1) (AE) has never been on turf, though the only race he ever won came in an off-the-turf affair. That’s all I got. GRADE: X.
Leg 3/Race 12:
We close things out with the race that needs no introduction: the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1), a 10-furlong main-track affair for the best 3-year-olds in the world (who aren’t trained by Bob Baffert!)
#1 DORNOCH (20/1), the first Gargan entrant, had a nice little string of wins going, but he turned into a pumpkin when he didn’t make the lead last time, so he’s going to have to come out of here like a quarter horse—and what will that do to him late? He’ll have to win several skirmishes, a few battles, and the whole war to get his picture taken! If he does all that, he’ll be a deserving winner. GRADE: X.
#2 SIERRA LEONE (3/1), the first Brown trainee, is the best finisher in the race, so you can expect him to be flying late in the lane. He should get plenty of pace to set up his run, but at the same time, he will have to negotiate through this big field of horses. If one hole closes up or one tiring horse backs up into his path, he’ll have his work cut out for him. He’s a very likely winner on paper—but they don’t run the race on paper. GRADE: A.
#3 MYSTIK DAN (20/1) ran a creditable third in the Arkansas Derby (G1), but he showed that maybe his gaudy figure in the mud two back was more the exception than the rule. You can upgrade him if the track is off, but on fast-dirt, he’s a cut below the best. GRADE: X.
#4 CATCHING FREEDOM (8/1), the first Cox runner, looks like he might be coming into his own, showing a really nice stretch run last time when winning the Louisiana Derby (G2). I don’t like that Sierra Leone beat him two back nor do I like that he lost here at Churchill last year—but he should be getting going while so many others are starting to back up. He too will have to negotiate a closing trip, but he’s three times the price of Sierra Leone—and he should be in front of that foe turning for home. GRADE: A.
#5 CATALYTIC (30/1) ran a solid second in the Florida Derby (G1), but let’s face it: someone had to, since Fierceness was in a league of his own. Other than Jose Ortiz riding, there’s not a lot here for me to recommend. GRADE: X.
#6 JUST STEEL (20/1) isn’t as good as the best in here, but he’s a hard-knocker who is trained by a guy who has been known to take horses with mediocre form like this and turn them into champions. That said, perhaps his last race—a good second in the Arkansas Derby (G1)—has him ready for a big step forward, since these 3-year-olds mature so quickly. Plus, there’s no one more battle-tested than this guy. Maybe for underneath in your verticals. GRADE: X.
#7 HONOR MARIE (20/1) is a very nice horse who has certainly paid dividends off that $40K purchase price. He’s never really run a bad race, and that includes a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star (G2), where he ran better than it looks on paper. He was grinding away last time against Catching Freedom going shorter, so who’s to say he can’t outfinish that foe with extra ground? GRADE: B.
#8 JUST A TOUCH (8/1), the second Cox runner, would be an auto-toss a few years ago, but we’ve seen that lightly raced horses—and horses without 2-year-old form—can win the Derby (G1). Clearly, this one has ability and is coming into his own, moving forward in each start of his career—but can he make another big forward move today? He likes to be forwardly placed, so it’s possible he’ll be too close to the pace, but I can see him holding on for a slice—and maybe even getting the W. GRADE: B.
#9 ENCINO—program scratch.
#10 T O PASSWORD (JPN) (30/1), one of two Japanese horses in the field, is clearly the less accomplished of the two. He’s 2-for-2 to kick off his career, but this seems like a very tough spot for start number three. GRADE: X.
#11 FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (10/1), the second Japanese horse, knows how to ship, and he knows how to win races. In fact, this dude is undefeated—and if you’ve been paying attention to Japanese horses the last few years, you know that it’s only a matter of time that one of them will win a Derby (G1). They’ve conquered the Breeders’ Cup, so why not this? GRADE: A.
#12 TRACK PHANTOM (20/1) has speed and adds blinkers, so you don’t need me to tell you where this guy is going to be early. I can’t see him hanging on, despite the ability he’s shown so far. GRADE: X.
#13 WEST SARATOGA (50/1) is a nice story, and I like that he appreciates the Churchill Downs surface, but he needs a massive step forward for the W today. GRADE: X.
#14 ENDLESSLY (30/1) has a world of ability, but he’s been plying his trade on everything but dirt. In fact, his trainer is on record saying that this horse isn’t as good on dirt. I happen to believe him. That said, you don’t know until you try, so I can’t fault the connections for taking a shot—and maybe there’s a world in which he just relishes the Churchill Downs surface. But that’s not an angle for me. GRADE: X.
#15 DOMESTIC PRODUCT (30/1), the second Brown runner, still has plenty of room to improve, but he is exiting some slow Florida races, and he’ll need a big step forward today to outfinish his more ballyhooed stablemate. That said, there is plenty of try in this horse, and sometimes, that’s half the battle in a race where so many horses can’t handle the chaos. You can expect this guy to be grinding all the way to the wire. GRADE: B.
#16 GRAND MO THE FIRST (50/1) is pretty honest and versatile, so I can’t knock a horse who has never finished off the board in all six of his starts. That said, he’s been handled by several of these, so he’ll need to show a lot more today. GRADE: X.
#17 FIERCENESS (5/2) has a ton of talent; there’s no denying that, but I think it’s safe to say that he is anything but “fierce” when things don’t go his way. So which animal shows up? The one who wowed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and the Florida Derby (G1)? Or the one who took his ball and went home the two times he didn’t get a perfect trip? Maybe he’s just good enough to beat all these while fending off speed horses and then outstaying the closers, but I’d need more than 5/2. GRADE: B.
#18 STRONGHOLD (20/1) represents California, so I’ll be rooting for him with my heart. Will I bet him? I really liked how game he was in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) when he outfinished a decent Baffert runner—and I also like that he has won over this track—but can he step up today and beat some tougher-looking animals? He’s bred for stamina and tenacity, and I know that D’Amato isn’t the type of guy to play “Derby Dreaming” unless he had the right horse for it. GRADE: B.
#19 RESILIENCE (20/1) is a nice horse who is in good hands with Mott, but he likes to stalk the pace, and that means he’ll likely be wide throughout while chasing a quick early pace. That said, he’s not too far off some of the others in here, so if he can move forward today, he could surprise, especially because I thought he ran a much improved race last time, finishing strongly on a closer-friendly track while up on a quick pace. Still… GRADE: B.
#20 SOCIETY MAN (50/1), the second Gargan runner, is the longer fused part of his uncoupled entry, since this guy likes to come from off the pace. He does get Dettori magic to conjure a few more lengths out of him today, but I’m not sure that will be enough to beat fast animals. GRADE: X.
#21 EPIC RIDE (30/1) is another one who will try to be forwardly placed while stalking, and that will soften him up late. GRADE: X.
#22 MUGATU (30/1) (AE) looks a decided cut below the best in here—but so did Rich Strike two years ago, and we all saw what happened that day. Still…not my kind of play. GRADE: X.
CONCLUSION
This is such an interesting wagering puzzle because of the $3 minimum and the fact that I think there is a horse in the second leg who will be on everyone’s tickets (#5)—so where’s the value in that, unless you really love some prices around him? That said, I do think there is a horse in that race (#13) who will not be priced correctly in terms of his chances to win, and that’s the kind of horse that can make your day. So the challenge is: how do you extract value with a horse that should be the heavy favorite in Leg 2, while also putting yourself in a position to hit something really good if he falters? See the Matrix below. The horses in green are all value horses, and those are the ones I want to build tickets around, even if it means leaving out some logical contenders. Here’s what I’m thinking right now, but I hope you use the Matrix to build your own combos. I know it seems odd to play a Pick 3 this way, but last year’s sequence paid $15,673.38 for $3, so it’s worth the investment, especially if the separator horses win. Good luck!
$3 P3: 7/5,13/2,4,7,8,11,15,17,18,19 ($54)
$3 P3: 5,7,8,12/13/2,4,11 ($36)
$3 P3: 5,7,8,12/5/11 ($12)
$3 P3: 7/13/11 ($3)
$6 P3: 7/5/11 ($6)
