ITM Watch List - July 20, 2021
Hello and Welcome… to the ITM Horses To Watch List: a place where ITM Handicappers provide analysis on potential bet back horses from last week’s racing, all in one spot.
MYWAYP,
PTF
Woodbine, Drew Coatney
WO 7/17 #4 Leave it With Me: had a bit of trouble exiting the far turn, wrapped up and still gaining ground on the field. Bit clearer sailing next out would be a good bet.
WO 718 #8 Ride the Wind: had decent early position then shuffled back to 4L back, on hold stuck in traffic, leader had clear running and kept on lead across wire, this one ran good through the lane and should only be better 2nd off long layoff
WO 7/18 #6 Strike a Beat: stalked the pace that eventually collapsed, steadied into FT losing a bit of position, angled back into the 2path from the 5path, accelerated well and just out gunned by wide grinder who ran a honest good race.
WO 7/18 #2 Silent Jimmie: good trip for last dozen jumps on hold until rail opened up. great upgrade here and could have easily won, winning ride, bad luck final strides
Saratoga, Nick Tammaro
7/15 RACE 5 - OUTFOXED
While most of the alums from the 5th on opening day are going to be heavily backed in their next starts, including the graded stake-bound winner, Outfoxed is one to upgrade. She was the only one who made a move from off the pace in a race where the 1-2 finishers appear to have serious quality. The winning Beyer speed figure of 92 is extremely strong for this time of year, and Outfoxed is liable to improve with experience given her connections.
7/15 RACE 7 - BOURBON THUNDER
This is one I am really looking forward to playing next time out, especially if they cut back to 7 furlongs. He fits the profile of a closing sprinter perfectly and still gave it his all in a painfully slow-paced 9f event on opening day. Wide on both turns, he kept on grinding late in a race where the entirety of the fractions were coded blue by TimeformUS. If he lands in any race where there'll be some pace in front of him, get ready to send it in.
7/16 RACE 3 - CHOCOLATE COOKIE
When a runner projected to race forwardly gets off to a slow start the trouble is evident. That is exactly the case with this Todd Pletcher trainee who broke slowly and then lagged behind a slow pace. She made a strong move late, but the eventual winner had such an enormous tactical advantage that her late move was in vain. You won't get much value next time, but bet with confidence.
7/16 RACE 4 - ANGELOU
Todd Pletcher's barn may have scored the easiest graded stake win of opening weekend, but otherwise had a frustrating run over the first four cards. Angelou ran a winning race when 3rd in a MSW at 11 panels on Friday afternoon. She was closes to a runaway early leader who stopped abruptly with a quarter to go, and this filly never gave up. She narrowly missed 2nd and is a serious candidate to break her maiden next time at any distance on turf from 8-11 furlongs.
7/18 RACE 5 - COZZY'S ATTITUDE
This well-bred Charlton Baker trainee didn't get away very quickly and lagged behind the pack (as most of Joel Rosario's mounts did opening weekend) early. She eventually made up some ground late in a race thoroughly dominated on the front end. Experience, and potentially extra ground, are going to do this guy a world of good.
Monmouth Park, Eric Solomon
Monmouth Park 7/16/21 Race 1: #2 Miss Yum Yum had the rail for her debut in a maiden special weight race for two year old filleis. She was ridden hard for the lead, but was outsprinted by an Asmussen first timer, Classical Romance. She lost her rail position on the turn and looked for a second like she was going to fade to the back of the field, however, she shifted out to the three path and re-broke, rallying well to finish second. I think she’ll be much more dangerous next time out, especially if she’s off the rail.
Monmouth Park 7/16/21 Race 2: #2 Larger Than Life broke well, but settled off the early lead near the back of the pack. He was making headway down the backstretch, but was denied position between horses to make an outside run. Albin Jimenez switched him to the inside for the stretch run, and was surging late, before being forced to slam on the brakes in the late stages of the race, crossing the wire 4th, beaten 1 and ¼ lengths. He was promoted to third via DQ, but I thought he was definitely the best horse in the race. I’ll definitely be using him at this level next time, although, I doubt we’ll be able to get the 17-1 we ended up getting in this race.
Monmouth Park 7/17/21 Race 6: #9 Jesters Honor: This six year old gelded son of Freud’s Honor was making his first start since September and his first start since moving into the Mike Dini barn. He was a part of an intense four horse duel for the majority of the race. He was three wide throughout and yielded late in the final furlong to finish 6th, while being sent to post at 55-1. I thought that was a strong effort for a seasonal debut and he could offer next time out at this NJ bred optional claiming/N1X allowance level.
Monmouth Park 7/17/21 Race 9: #1 Linny Kate & #2 Apurate: These four old fillies finished fourth and second respectively in a strong N1X allowance race on the turf. The race was decided for the winner (Luna Queen) early on, when Paco Lopez shifted her to the rail, causing Linny Kate to steady early, putting her a little further than back than she likes while a slow pace was developing in front of her. She was full of run throughout the race, but didn’t really have anywhere to go until it was too late. She finished with interest to be 4th. Apurate also had to steady on heels early on in the race, while being forced to settle behind Luna Queen. Prat found an opening down the backstretch and he made a decisive three wide move going into the far turn. She took the lead, but couldn’t hold off Luna Queen who had the much easier trip. I’d play both of these fillies back next time out.
Monmouth Park 7/17/21 Race 13: #9 King of Spades was bothered by a pair of longshots while trying to establish early position. As a result, he wound up as the back marker while the pace up front, which started off fast, slowed down considerably in the second quarter. Juarez tried to save as much ground as possible before swinging him out wide in the stretch. He closed with interest, but he was left with way too much work to do. He might be better suited at distances that are a little longer, but there aren’t a ton options in the upcoming condition book. I could still play him back at this level though in a regular two turn route.