ITM Plus - Turfway Stakes Action

Tyler Whisman

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It’s been a while since I’ve provided any written analysis and with most of the attention on the action from GP and SA, I thought I’d take a look at a few of the races in my backyard - at Turfway Park.

Turfway Park Race 4:

2 - BRIGHT PROSPECTOR is a 4YO gelding (maybe not what they had in mind given the price tag) taking on mostly 3YOs very early in the racing season. This is typically a recipe for domination, assuming the horse has any talent whatsoever. This McPeek charge has plenty of local experience and has run several decent races. He failed to get the job done as the favorite in his last outing - losing to a Mike Maker horse that had been off for nine months. That race was more or less a merry go round and no horse made up any significant ground due to the relatively slow pace. He spots several runners considerable weight, as is the case with 4YOs vs. 3YOs this time of the year. And with speed drawn to the outside, he could find trouble on the inside. In my opinion, he’s worth tossing from the win end.

Given the connections, 5 - FORMATION might take some money on debut. And that’s probably a good sign / signal, if so.

The works are fairly consistent but certainly not anything flashy. For verticle wagers this might be a horse worth tossing completely if he appears cold on the board.

I like two horses in this spot (noting the tote could slightly change this thought). And I’m confident that I’ll have the best speed and best closer with my pair.

8 - ICARUS was no match for the winner in his last race but given the race shape, and the way this horse broke, it was a better than looked effort. The top local jock stays aboard and this horse looks to be the best finisher in a race that should feature a better setup.

My top selection in this race was beaten more than 16 lengths in his last and only race. 6 - TIMEHASCOME looks to have a pace advantage here. Not This Time is proving to be a solid sire, especially in routes and on sythetic. Despite a sprinty damside pedigree, I think this horse might improve on the stretch out. Romans has been rather cold (as in, years) but he does excel going sprint to route and his horses generally improve with experience. I’m hoping he drifts up, and he looks like he could represent value. One final note, his performance might give some clues as to what to expect with longshot La Belleza Negra who races in the Battaglia Memorial (Race 5).

*Also note that Goldeneye, who beat Icarus in the last will also be in the Battaglia Memorial. As you’ll see, in my opinion, this one is more important going forward.

Turfway Park Race 5:

The class of the field is clearly 10 - TIZ THE BOMB. Before I go any further, I should say, Kenny McPeek is a trainer that I struggle to get right, he also owes me a Playstation 5 (twitter joke). He will saddle the deserving favorite here but the horse is vulnerable in my opinion. If his turf form translates to synthetic, he could surely win but his return to dirt in the Holy Bull was a disaster, without much excuse. Even if you forgive that effort, he’s the co-highweight and loses his jockey - which is actually my biggest concern. The recent works appear strong but I prefer others on the win end.

The two horses I like best are exiting the same race at Sam Houston - The Texas Turf Mile. I’d encourage you to watch the replay, if for nothing else, to hear Nick call the race. :) Both horses have shown ability on turf and dirt surfaces so I’m not concerned whether they’ll handle the synthetic surface at Turfway.

I can’t separate 4 - STOLEN BASE and 11 - BLOODLINE. Both were wide on the second turn and got a great pace setup. A setup they should get again on Saturday. Corrales takes the mount on the Maker runner and while that might not be an upgrade per se, his local experience gives me confidence.

As I mentioned, I expect this race to have a rather fast pace. Several have shown early speed going shorter, so it could heat up. Nevertheless, I’m a bit intrigued by the rail horse 1 - GOLDENEYE. He shows up for a new barn and gets a new jockey, both are positives. It seems as though he will be sent from his inside post and he might lead them a long way. He’s a must use in verticle wagers and I’d use as a B/C type in multi-race wagers.

Turfway Park Race 6:

On paper, the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes looks like a walkover. 5 - MARISSA’S LADY is an OMNIFIG horse - meaning all of her Beyer Figures are higher than anything the field has run. She also appears to have a tactical advantage. While some others have shown early speed, she could be loose. And she’s 2-2 over the TP surface. Other than the likely price, there’s a lot to like here.

BUT…She’s going two turns for the first time (trainer does excel at stretchouts) and she spots weight to most of these fillies. It’s noteworthy that she’s a half to millionaire, Richard’s Boy. Winning pedigree, for sure, but also one that is almost entirely sprint oriented. Violence is a useful sire but mostly adds to the sprintiness of the pedigree.

To me, there are two proven route horses in this race. 1 - VALENTINA DAY and 2 - BHOMA. Both of these fillies get weight from the favorite. Theoretically, Bhoma might have more upside as she’s been away since last fall. But Cupid has proven to be an excellent synthetic route sire. As a result, while this is a big step up in class, the rail horse is very interesting to me and should provide some significant value.

The other horse I’m interested in is 9 - BUBBLE ROCK who I gave a look in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. Her race was over out of the gate that day. She was no match for the chalk back in February but the distance could be a big equalizer. I’m not going to read into where Corrales lands as there are too many things that could have led to him jumping off this horse. But if there’s more to it, I’ll have his runner on most tickets.

Putting it All Together:

I chose this sequence with the intent of playing a Pick 3. In summary, I’m against the presumed favorite in the first two legs, which should create some value. I’m not completely against the big favorite in the last leg and the following is how I’d approach this sequence on a $100 budget

6,8 / 4,11 / 5 x $8 = $32

6,8 / 1 / 5 x $4 = $8

6,8 / 4,11 / 1,2,9 x $4 = $48

6,8 / 1 / 1,2,9 x $2 = $12

Note - If Formation takes significant money in the first leg I might play an additional ticket that excludes the favorites in the last two legs:

5 / 1,4,11 / 1,2,9

Best of luck!