ITM Plus - Rob Dove Turf Race Analysis

The emfamous Rob Dove (one of the Top 10 Pro Punters in the UK) checks in with his analysis of the Turf races this weekend. Thanks to Rob for his detailed thoughts!

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Juvenile Turf Sprint

Averly Jane looks likely to start a short price & while I think she has all the attributes & is the most likely winner I think there are a couple of Euros that could be overlays. Twilight Gleaming comes here off a long layoff, the Ascot run she ran into Quick Suzy who had the favoured rail & then she went to France but that form hasn't worked out & the Ascot figure leaves her with something to find. The Middle Park throws up three contenders. Armor was 3rd & he traveled through the race really nicely he's been really consistent through his last few races & on my comparison with Beyers I've got him about 85 so just slightly behind Avery Jane. Go Bears Go didn’t travel great but was fighting on well at the finish but my worry is he looked jaded in the Dewhurst on his next start. Twilight Jet led them & looked like he had them on the ropes before fading up the hill. He dropped to 5f next time he traveled nicely just off the pace & won nicely, he has had a lot of starts this year but I like that he's improved all year & should be able to get the stalking position from the inside, his trainer has remarked on how tough he is & I think he could be a real threat. Hierarchy is improving but looks like he needs another step forward, Vertiginous is maybe getting her act together but the only time she raced around a bend she was very wayward & threw the race away hanging.

Most likely winner - Averly Jane

Value plays - Twilight Jet 8/1+ Armor 6/1+

Juvenile Fillies Turf

The key to this race seems to be a horse that isn't running - Wild Beauty. She ran an 89 Beyer winning in Canada, a seemingly a big improvement on anything she'd done in Europe but she was backed heavily. She was less heavily bet in her next start, the G1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket going off 15/2 & ran to about that price finishing 5th, on Timeform ratings & racing post ratings she ran to exactly the same figure in both races but on my comparisons shes only ran to a low 80s Beyer at Newmarket. The link is obviously Cachet & Mise En Scene plus Hello You ran against both of them in previous races. Mise En Scene beat Hello You at Goodwood but Hello You was denied a clear run, Hello You beat Cachet at Newmarket then Cachet beat Mise En Scene in the Fillies mile (& Wild Beauty) so who is best? I don't think there’s much between them really. My worry with Hello You is that’s she’s a bit keen filly who looks like she might be more vulnerable to finding trouble & Mise En Scene is drawn wide & showed a lack of speed last time that might find her out. The other horse I'm interested in is Pizza Bianca who is the final Wild Beauty link, on a traditional form line how can PB beat the Euros? But Pizza B had a bit of trouble in the lane & maybe Wild Beauty was just better that day! Plus she's a bit more room to improve after only 2 starts. Aside from Pizza Bianca the US team doesn't look that strong. Haughty could step up but the race overall lacks depth.

Most likely winner - Pizza Bianca

Value plays - Pizza Bianca 5/1+ Cachet 8/1+

Juvenile Turf

The Euros have a strong hand here. Let’s start with Modern Games, as with a lot of Charlie Appleby’s he has improved through the season & this guy really was a slow starter (not unlike his 3yo brother whos improved with every start) & if you want a horse with a speed figure he's not for you & on his last start he had every advantage a soft lead with a strong tailwind but the power he showed turning away Trident ( previously 2nd in a G1 sprint) was quite something visually & on sectionals, he seems like a horse who can only improve for a strongly run race but is very hard to pin down to a rating but I expect high 80s+ on Beyer. Dubawi Legend has more solid form in the book finishing 2nd in the Dewhurst after looking like the winner going into the dip however Native Trail powered home as he did in the National Stakes. He's always been highly regarded & the trainer blamed his York defeat on a nightmare trip (looked fine to me?). My question with him is the wide draw & what they'll do with him? He's quite keen going & has a high cadence (TPD data available on Attheraces at Doncaster 2.5 is more a sprinters cadence). If I was in charge of tactics, I'd want them to be aggressive early but I fear they will be timid & that could be his undoing & he may not see out the trip anyway. Albahr looks to have plenty to find given his speed figure in Canada & he was running to a similar level here. Glounthaune has improved every start & it's interesting AOB sends him but I only rate the last run about 80 Beyer & Great Max similar with less room to improve. The US runners do seem to put up a decent challenge especially Portfolio Company who's 88 Beyer off a slow pace puts him right up there.

Most likely winner - Modern Games

Value plays - Modern Games 4/1+ Portfolio Company 6/1+

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Turf Sprint

Golden Pal is currently 5/2 with bookmakers over here & that looks way too short. The Juvenile Turf Sprint he won doesn't look good with the pair of Euros who finished not far behind proving to be very moderate. His three speed figures this year leave him with something to find, he went too fast at York but the winner was also on the speed & a horse that passed him looks to be a far more solid proposition- Emaraaty Ana who has matured into a really nice sprinter this year 2nd at York after racing a few lengths off the strong pace just couldn't real in Winter Power who is a really fast horse at York, then last time on firm ground (as fast as you'll get over here) he traveled like a dream & just held off the charging favourite , the speed figures he's been producing I would equate to about 105 Beyers & with a nice draw he should be able to get into a nice stalking position. Last year’s winner Glass Slippers has just come back a step slower than last year & she might have a troubled trip if she gets too far back from stall 1. A Case of You put up a career-best effort last time out off a very strong pace in soft ground, if he can translate that run to here he'd have strong chance, but the worry is all his best form has come on soft ground & he might regress back to the mean.

Most likely winner - Emaraaty Ana

Value plays - Emaraaty Ana 4/1+

Filly & Mare Turf

Love has been redirected here to let her stablemates run in the Turf but I think it was the sensible move after an increasingly disappointing season for the star 3yo. It started off well enough when she beat Audarya at Royal Ascot. She went off a short-priced favourite in the King George but came up short still running a respectable 3rd. Her run in the Juddmonte was definitely a notch below that with Mishriff pulling a lot further clear (probably his career peak) and her final start was probably to a similar level beaten by a promising type but she's had a break since then & perhaps she can regress to the mean in a positive way. I estimate she’s been running to about 105 Beyers in her better runs - 100 in her last two runs. Last year’s winner Audarya comes into this race in similar form to last year & she overcame a wide draw then so all is not lost from gate 12. On her last start in the Opera (same race she finished close behind Tarnawa last year) she did best of those that raced up with the strong pace. Rougir came from well off the strong pace & I feel that’s going to be much harder to do here. Plus her balance of work is not as good & her form is on soft ground. Loves Only You must have a great chance in this with some very nice form in Dubai with Mishriff. She may be an overlay due to the poor record of the Japanese raiders & I don't see the home team as being that strong.

Most likely winner - Loves Only You

Value plays - Loves Only You 4/1+ Love 4/1+ Audarya 6/1+

Mile

We have to start with Space Blues who was seen to best effect last time held up off a strong pace in soft ground. He moved through smoothly, beating the more prominently ridden Pearls Galore. In theory, he has a nice draw here but they do like to hold him up then sweep down the outside and that will be very tricky here. His class edge is not enough for him to be a short-priced favourite with quite a lot of questions to answer. Pearls Galore could get closer if she can get in from her wide draw. Mother Earth has had a long season but she's still going well & her QE2 run was sneaky good. She was held up off a slow pace but finished off as well as Baaeed & Palace Pier she just had too much to do, she was also unlucky to get blocked off in the Matron. Again the problem is the draw & they will probably hold her up. Master of the Seas hasn't come back in the same form after a mid-season layoff & he has been keen so may not rate easily but if there was money for him or sparkling workouts he could be sneaky. I see lots of US runners with chances here Smooth Like Strait & Mo Forza being the most interesting for me.

Most likely winner - Mo Forza

Value plays - Smooth like Strait 10/1+

Turf

Tarnawa comes here for the repeat off the back of another very good season, she's fired her best race several times in a row in varying circumstances. She’s got the perfect blend of speed & stamina. I can't see anything here that is up to her level but a bad trip could & getting the outside draw makes it clear she will be held up & try to sweep the field in the same way she did last year. Perhaps something with a ground saving prominent trip can beat her? Walton Street certainly doesn't have Tarnawa's class but his last couple of races have been good. Just behind the Arc winner Torquator Tasso in Germany before an impressive victory in Canada, I'm not sure I believe he ran to a 110 Beyer but still he should still be competitive. William Buick has picked Yibir over him. He seems to have improved for being dropped out of late after throwing in a few quirky efforts but the last time Beyer of 94 suggests a fair bit to find. Teona also has her quirks. She pulls hard & looked to be going the wrong way in the Oaks but they gave her a break & she won nicely at Windsor finding plenty beating the solid yardstick Desert Encounter (behind Walton Street in Canada). She followed up in France upsetting Snowfall in a fair time off a slowish pace (Frankie blamed that for Snowfalls defeat). But the form has holes in it as Snowfall continued to disappoint & the other beaten horses haven't done much for the form. Sisafan can't be ruled out given how well the German form is working out but he likes to come from off the pace. Domestic Spending looks like the main US hope, he looked to enjoy the strong pace set by Tribhuvan two back & should get that again here but has something to find.

Most likely winner- Tarnawa

Value Plays- Tarnawa 2/1+

Best Bets of the meeting...

1.Emaraaty Ana

2.Twilight Jet

3.Tarnawa