ITM Plus: Rob Dove - Euro Analysis

Belmont Derby and Oaks

A big thanks to Rob Dove, one of the “Top 10 Pro Punters in the UK”!

He provides some valuable insights on each of the European shippers for the Belmont Derby and Oaks. He’s done some extensive analysis through the years and has a way to roughly equate European form ratings into Beyer speed figures. Enjoy!

Belmont Oaks

Aidan O’brien has won this twice in the last 4 years with similar types to Concert Hall, she’s run well in all 4 starts this year beating Ribblesdale winner Magical Lagoon on return with a troubled passage followed by a staying on 3rd in the Irish 1000 guineas & a solid 4th in a strong Oaks (slowly run she didn’t have the pace to match the first 3), on her last start she was facing older & showed strength & weakness, she was well-positioned turning for home off a strong pace but started losing ground & then the front runner stopped causing her to slow down & switch around the field, she stayed on strongly to the line. She’s yet to run a speed figure to match her form but should be capable of a low 90s Beyer, lack of tactical pace is a worry but she should be finishing best of all.

With The Moonlight is quite a big daughter of Frankel, she steadily improved at 2 but made a big leap forward on return at Newmarket galloping her rivals into submission in a very quick time (91 Beyer in May). She was quite weak in the betting for the Oaks & ran no race, keen off the slow pace but quickly dropped out to finish last. Maybe she bounced off the big Newmarket effort, if they can get her back on track here she could take some stopping, and keep a close on her behavior in the prelims.