ITM Plus - PTF's Kentucky Derby Future Wager #2 Preview
Thoughts on all 38 individual interests!
I’m going to do something a little different in this plus writeup – I’ll take a quick look at the 38 individual entrants in the current Derby Future Pool. You can bet starting Thursday through Sunday on your ADW of choice. The best is sponsored by our friends at TwinSpires/Churchill.
#1 Admiral Dennis – Cox/Saez
Raced twice. Showed promise on debut with a trip in a race that produced three winners next out (including him). Maiden win at a mile was nice, showed upside. Published Beyer of 79 maybe a little low. Trip was pretty easy and he was more or less with the flow. I rate him around 82. Looks like the distance will be no issue.
Intl price 33, Future Wager ML 50-1. The 50s sound about right.
#2 Barnes – Baffert/Garcia
Hyped-up $3.2 million dollar baby made Bob Baffert’s return to Churchill a winning one, but only barely. He looked great pre race but green (drifting on the wrong lead) in the running when he just got up over Innovator (who had 4 starts without breaking the 80 mark). If you want, you can say he’ll get better with time and distance and those things are probably true but they also better be, as on its face the debut left a little something to be desired.
Intl Price 33-1, Future Wager ML 25-1 (would be an underlay at those numbers, we need to see more)
#3 Bullard – McCarthy/Rispoli
Prevailed in the Grade 3 Bob Hope(ful) with a perfect setup so in ability terms I am tempted to dock a couple of points from the 89 Beyer he earned there. The form of the maiden win is excellent and given his bloodlines, sales price (675k at Kee September), and the hands he’s in, he should be on everyone’s radar at this point. He’ll be tested by the Baffert flotilla at some stage as well, which I see as a positive. I wish he’d finished up a little stronger on the clock given how he’d had everything his way. I’ll rate him as an 87.
Intl 40-1, ML 30-1. Not enough juice for me at those prices.
#4 Calling Card – Maker/Rosario
Nice New York-bred definitely benefitted from how the track was playing on 11/17. He ran well, improving mightily for dirt and winning by a city block. But doesn’t the fact that this horse was 5/2 in there, despite his previous best fig being 69 and trying dirt for the first time, tell us all we need to know about that field? I’m skeptical. 83-.
Intl unquoted, ML 99-1. No interest from me.
#5 Chancer McPatrick – Brown/Prat
Let the haters come for Chancer McPatrick. I still think he’s a really good horse. It’s possible, like his older barn mate Sierra Leone, he needs a setup to do his best work. He did not get any kind of a setup in the BC Juvenile. When East Ave didn’t break, there was no pace. I’ve gone so far as to call it a fake race and I’m not backing off that “hot take” until I need to. The worst thing I can say for Chancer in the Juvy is that 60-1 shot Hill Road was a similarly disadvantaged closer and he made a much better impression late while Chancer really just spun his wheels. You’ll hear how he doesn’t want two turns blah blah but I think that’s more noise than signal. I’m following with great interest, and not just because I proclaimed him the Derby winner back on July 27 after the gutty maiden score. He’s a potentially elite late pace threat, a la the aforementioned Sierra Leone. 92.
Intl 40, ML 10-1. The International price makes him an appealing bet, the domestic price guess less so.