ITM Plus - (paid content) KEE 4/19/2025, Drew Coatney TwinSpires Contest Strategy
Contest Strategy for Oaklawn Park on Saturday with BCBC Champion
Introduction
If you had a chance to bet on an even money horse to get back 8.5x your money, do you take the bet? In the contest, that’s where we get those unique opportunities. That’s where I found myself on Saturday. The Grade One Gamble is where contestants buy-in for $3.5k per entry, $1k to prize pool, $2.5k in bankroll. My bets were in, and it was a matter of time to see how the scenes play out in the final race of the contest. I was live to the even money horse #8 Sherbini. If he wins, I cash $30k and a potential $70k+ in prize pool and seats.
Cutting to the chase, the result was bad, but the process was sound.
This was a rare case as a horseplayer where a loss is a win. I lost, yet I felt great about it.
We often beat ourselves up with thoughts stumbling in our head at night after a day at the track “oh I should have bet that” or “when they zig, I zagged” or “If only I wasn’t so aggressive (or tepid)”. I went into the day with a plan, and I saw that plan to full execution. The only problem was the final horse wasn’t right. I can live with that result every day. Eventually, the probability will work out in my favor if I’m in a spot that allows me to wager on a horse that in the tote is even money, but in the context of the contest is 8.5 to 1. For anyone going through a rut in their horseplay: stick to your plan, stick to your budget, and have a target that will make you happy. If you don’t have those three questions answered before betting, it’s hard to get off that hamster wheel.
Contest Strategy: Keeneland 4/19
Details: $800 buy in, $400 bankroll, 5x $40 min bets Link to Register
Target: $2.4k, from $400
This is not like the story above, shoving all-in to get a win and capture the top prize. This prize structure is flat where we’ll see somewhere between 1st through 4th to get KDBC ($5k value) and that’s it. So I like to set my sights to 6x at $2.4k. If the entire top of leaderboard eclipses $4k, I would be forced to raise that target mid-contest
Final move: $1.5k in race 8, assuming evens
Relief valve: R10 into R11 doubles if target needs to move or the R8 win payout is too limiting
Two entries
Race 4: min bet doubles into a single – play min values only
Entry 1: $40 7 w 7 (assume $5 probable)
Entry 2: $40 6 w 7 (assume $5 probable)