ITM Plus - Oaks / Turf / Derby Pick 3 Strategy
By Frank Scatoni
Fifty-Cent Kentucky Oaks/Turf Classic/Kentucky Derby Pick 3
INTRO
You don’t need me to tell you just how amazing the first Friday and Saturday in May are at Churchill Downs—but as exciting as it is for horseplayers, it can also be a bit overwhelming if you don’t have a gameplan since there are so many interesting wagers to take on. Typically, I like to keep things simple, especially on big days, but I also like to have fun and try new things—and this two-day fifty-cent Pick 3, which features the Oaks (G1) on Friday, along with the Turf Classic (G1) and Derby (G1) on Saturday, certainly fits the bill.
That said, I do think this is the kind of wager where you should have some strong opinions and hit those multiple times, because playing a few spread-y tickets that cover all of your contenders, probably won’t yield you too much (unless you like a lot of bombs, which I don’t). I also don’t think it makes sense to play all the Matrix combos because you will definitely eat into your profit—so my approach here will be different than usual. I’ll plant a flag with a few separator horses and play some tickets accordingly (even if that means I can’t use all of my “B’s”). Regardless, it’s always a good exercise to go through and letter-grade each horse based on their chances of winning. Hopefully this info will help you decide how you want to play your combos.
Leg 1/Race 11 on Friday (5/3):
We kick things off with the $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks (G1), Friday’s feature race for 3-year-old fillies going 9-furlongs on the main track. There are some quality fillies in here, and I think several of these can win with any kind of move forward (and the right trip), so I had a really hard time separating many of these in here.
#1 TAPIT JENALLIE (30/1) has a versatile run style, so she can sit off and track the pace while saving all the ground—but is she good enough? She’s lost lengths in the lane against a few of these, so she’ll need a big step forward. GRADE: X.
#2 GIN GIN (30/1), the first Cox entrant, seems a cut below her stablemates, since she seems to just kind of run along with the pack while posting the same speed figure no matter the competition. She’ll need to show more oomph to get the W. GRADE: X.
#3 WHERE’S MY RING (15/1) couldn’t win a race in SoCal, but she sure did perk up when she landed in New York and dominated in the Gazelle (G3). She stalked the pace and powered away to win easily. That was a sharp race, but this is a much tougher field. GRADE: X.
#4 REGULATORY RISK (20/1), the first Brown runner, makes the third race of her form cycle, so she should run a peak effort, but even with a big move forward, will it be enough to turn the tables on a few who have already beaten her? All three of her route races came with blinkers on, but Brown takes them off today (which is how she started her career). I’m not sure that’s the answer. GRADE: X.
#5 THORPEDO ANNA (5/1) stamped herself as a major contender when she easily dispatched nine other foes in the Fantasy (G2) at Oaklawn Park in preparation for this. That was her first start as a sophomore, so a big step forward is very likely today since this gal has solid juvenile form to build upon and the right tracking style for this race. That said, she faces some stiff competition today. GRADE: B.
#6 LEMON MUFFIN (30/1) has some tenacity, since she’s a bit of a grinder who has tried hard in several of her races—but I’m not sure she’s good enough to beat the best in here based on her current form. She got dusted in the Fantasy (G2), and it’s not like her Honeybee (G3) victory was all that fast. That said, she’s trained by Lukas, and there was a time when he’d routinely take horses who looked like this and win major races with them. GRADE: X.
#7 FIONA’S MAGIC (30/1) looks like a need-the-lead type, and that’s going to be an issue in here with several horses with early/presser run styles. GRADE: X.
#8 TARIFA (7/2), the second Cox trainee, is obvious, and she’s a very likely winner—but there is one race on her form that sticks out like a sore thumb: that November 25, 2023, race here at Churchill Downs. She was no good as the chalk that day, and one could argue that that’s enough of a question mark to take her on at a short price. Usually, I’d be all about that—but I just think this girl has ability, so I’ll chalk that bad race up to the lousy rail draw that day. GRADE: A.